La diplomacia cultural como herramienta para el mejoramiento de la relación económica de Colombia con Corea del Sur y Australia

Esta investigación se preocupa por dilucidar la función de la diplomacia cultural como herramienta para mejorar la relación económica de Colombia con Corea del Sur y Australia. Así, se analiza a la diplomacia cultural y lo que hace Colombia en esta materia en ambos países; así como el estado de la relación económica de Colombia en un periodo de ocho años con dichos países, y cómo las acciones culturales colombianas podrían llegar a mejorar dicha relación económica. De esta manera además del desarrollo conceptual de diplomacia cultural y los indicadores económicos, a saber; exportaciones; Inversión Extranjera Directa y turismo; se corrió un modelo de regresión lineal para saber si efectivamente hay relación entre ambas variables y una contribución final que consiste en una propuesta de generación de indicadores de gestión a utilizarse al momento de implementar la diplomacia cultural como herramienta en política exterior.

A influência da competência emocional no desempenho académico de adolescentes do ensino secundário

O nosso trabalho tem como objectivo principal responder à questão fundamental: A competência emocional influencia o desempenho académico em adolescentes do ensino secundário? Para o efeito, os instrumentos utilizados foram: o questionário de Competência Emocional, adaptado ao contexto português por Lima Santos e Faria (2001), as pautas de notas dos alunos tendo em vista identificar o género, ano escolar e as idades dos alunos. Depois de obtida a autorização para a utilização do questionário, procedemos à sua aplicação sendo que a amostra foi constituída por 191 estudantes a frequentar o Ensino Secundário na Escola Secundária Dr. João de Araújo Correia, com idades compreendidas entre os 14 e 19 anos, no início do ano letivo, setembro de 2011. Após a recolha de dados procedemos à sua análise, a partir do programa SPSS, versão 19.0 para o Windows, cingindo-nos à análise descritiva das variáveis Género, Idade e Ano Escolar; análise descritiva da turma; análise descritiva das notas da disciplina de português e matemática; análise descritiva das questões do questionário de competência emocional; análise descritiva das dimensões do questionário; comparação de Médias das três Dimensões do questionário de competência emocional; análise de Regressão Linear e análise de Médias Através dos Itens e Variáveis Sociodemográficas e Escolares. Os resultados apontaram para a existência de diferenças estatisticamente significativas em relação à nota de Português no que diz respeito à EE (Expressão Emocional). Os alunos cujas notas de português são mais baixas apresentam valores mais baixos também na EE. Por outro lado, a nota de matemática era a única preditora da EE, explicando 4.3% da variância. Assim, a relação entre competência emocional e o desempenho académico verificou-se em relação à dimensão da Expressão Emocional. Por outro lado, em função do género, idade e escolaridade apenas se verificaram diferenças significativas para os itens da Expressão Emocional. Na relação entre o desempenho académico relativamente às disciplinas de português e matemática, comparativamente com a competência emocional apenas se verificou relação na dimensão - Expressão Emocional.

Conflito Trabalho-Família/Família-Trabalho e Capital Psicológico Positivo em Professores

Este estudo teve três grandes objetivos. Por um lado procurámos conhecer a prevalência do conflito trabalho-família e os níveis de capital psicológico positivo em professores; por outro, foi nosso intuito analisar a relação existente na perceção do conflito trabalho-família e os seus reflexos no capital psicológico individual; por fim, quisemos compreender a influência de algumas variáveis sociodemográficas nos dois constructos em estudo. Voluntariamente participaram nesta investigação 231 professores do ensino público e privado, aos quais foi aplicado o Questionário CTF_CP, composto por um conjunto de questões de caracterização sociodemográfica, pela escala S.W.I.N.G. (para avaliação do conflito trabalho-família) e pelo PsyCap Questionnaire (para determinação do capital psicológico positivo). No geral estes profissionais apresentaram níveis moderados de conflito trabalho-família negativo e de conflito família-trabalho-família positivo, assim como níveis moderados de autoeficácia, de resiliência e de capital psicológico positivo. Relativamente às variáveis sociodemográficas verificou-se que o conflito trabalho-família e família-trabalho negativo é significativamente mais elevado nos professores do ensino público, enquanto o conflito família-trabalho-família positivo é mais elevado nos professores do ensino privado. Verificou-se também que é o sexo feminino quem apresenta maiores índices de conflito trabalho-família negativo. Através da regressão linear constatou-se que as três dimensões do conflito trabalho-família estudadas explicam 24,3% da variação obtida no capital psicológico positivo dos inquiridos.

Neurobehavioral Development in Children With Potential Exposure to Pesticides

Children may be at higher risk than adults from pesticide exposure, due to their rapidly developing physiology, unique behavioral patterns, and interactions with the physical environment. This preliminary study conducted in Ecuador examines the association between household and environmental risk factors for pesticide exposure and neurobehavioral development. We collected data over 6 months in the rural highland region of Cayambe, Ecuador (2003–2004). Children age 24–61 months residing in 3 communities were assessed with the Ages and Stages Questionnaire and the Visual Motor Integration Test. We gathered information on maternal health and work characteristics, the home and community environment, and child characteristics. Growth measurements and a hemoglobin finger-prick blood test were obtained. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted. Current maternal employment in the flower industry was associated with better developmental scores. Longer hours playing outdoors were associated with lower gross and fine motor and problem solving skills. Children who played with irrigation water scored lower on fine motor skills (8% decrease; 95% confidence interval 9.31 to 0.53), problem-solving skills (7% decrease; 8.40 to 0.39), and Visual Motor Integration test scores (3% decrease; 12.00 to 1.08). These results suggest that certain environmental risk factors for exposure to pesticides may affect child development, with contact with irrigation water of particular concern. However, the relationships between these risk factors and social characteristics are complex, as corporate agriculture may increase risk through pesticide exposure and environmental contamination, while indirectly promoting healthy development by providing health care, relatively higher salaries, and daycare options.

Validation of improved TAMANN neural network for operational satellite-derived rainfall estimation in Africa

Real-time rainfall monitoring in Africa is of great practical importance for operational applications in hydrology and agriculture. Satellite data have been used in this context for many years because of the lack of surface observations. This paper describes an improved artificial neural network algorithm for operational applications. The algorithm combines numerical weather model information with the satellite data. Using this algorithm, daily rainfall estimates were derived for 4 yr of the Ethiopian and Zambian main rainy seasons and were compared with two other algorithms-a multiple linear regression making use of the same information as that of the neural network and a satellite-only method. All algorithms were validated against rain gauge data. Overall, the neural network performs best, but the extent to which it does so depends on the calibration/validation protocol. The advantages of the neural network are most evident when calibration data are numerous and close in space and time to the validation data. This result emphasizes the importance of a real-time calibration system.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Understanding electron heat flux signatures in the solar wind

Suprathermal electrons (E > 80 eV) carry heat flux away from the Sun. Processes controlling the heat flux are not well understood. To gain insight into these processes, we model heat flux as a linear dependence on two independent parameters: electron number flux and electron pitch angle anisotropy. Pitch angle anisotropy is further modeled as a linear dependence on two solar wind components: magnetic field strength and plasma density. These components show no correlation with number flux, reinforcing its independence from pitch angle anisotropy. Multiple linear regression applied to 2 years of Wind data shows good correspondence between modeled and observed heat flux and anisotropy. The results suggest that the interplay of solar wind parameters and electron number flux results in distinctive heat flux dropouts at heliospheric features like plasma sheets but that these parameters continuously modify heat flux. This is inconsistent with magnetic disconnection as the primary cause of heat flux dropouts. Analysis of fast and slow solar wind regimes separately shows that electron number flux and pitch angle anisotropy are equally correlated with heat flux in slow wind but that number flux is the dominant correlative in fast wind. Also, magnetic field strength correlates better with pitch angle anisotropy in slow wind than in fast wind. The energy dependence of the model fits suggests different scattering processes in fast and slow wind.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Relating Agulhas leakage to the Agulhas Current retroflection location

The relation between the Agulhas Current retroflection location and the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the transport of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is investigated in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. Sudden eastward retreats of the Agulhas Current retroflection loop are linearly related to the shedding of Agulhas rings, where larger retreats generate larger rings. Using numerical Lagrangian floats a 37 year time series of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage in the model is constructed. The time series exhibits large amounts of variability, both on weekly and annual time scales. A linear relation is found between the magnitude of Agulhas leakage and the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection, both binned to three month averages. In the relation, a more westward location of the Agulhas Current retroflection corresponds to an increased transport from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. When this relation is used in a linear regression and applied to almost 20 years of altimetry data, it yields a best estimate of the mean magnitude of Agulhas leakage of 13.2 Sv. The early retroflection of 2000, when Agulhas leakage was probably halved, can be identified using the regression.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Estimation of the stoichiometry of volatile fatty acid production in the rumen of lactating cows

The purpose of this study was to improve the prediction of the quantity and type of Volatile Fatty Acids (VFA) produced from fermented substrate in the rumen of lactating cows. A model was formulated that describes the conversion of substrate (soluble carbohydrates, starch, hemi-cellulose, cellulose, and protein) into VFA (acetate, propionate, butyrate, and other VFA). Inputs to the model were observed rates of true rumen digestion of substrates, whereas outputs were observed molar proportions of VFA in rumen fluid. A literature survey generated data of 182 diets (96 roughage and 86 concentrate diets). Coefficient values that define the conversion of a specific substrate into VFA were estimated meta-analytically by regression of the model against observed VFA molar proportions using non-linear regression techniques. Coefficient estimates significantly differed for acetate and propionate production in particular, between different types of substrate and between roughage and concentrate diets. Deviations of fitted from observed VFA molar proportions could be attributed to random error for 100%. In addition to regression against observed data, simulation studies were performed to investigate the potential of the estimation method. Fitted coefficient estimates from simulated data sets appeared accurate, as well as fitted rates of VFA production, although the model accounted for only a small fraction (maximally 45%) of the variation in VFA molar proportions. The simulation results showed that the latter result was merely a consequence of the statistical analysis chosen and should not be interpreted as an indication of inaccuracy of coefficient estimates. Deviations between fitted and observed values corresponded to those obtained in simulations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro degradability of mature and immature leaves of tropical forage legumes differing in condensed tannin and non-starch polysaccharide content and composition

A study was designed to examine the relationships between protein, condensed tannin and cell wall carbohydrate content and composition and the nutritional quality of seven tropical legumes (Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leucocephala, L pallida, L macrophylla, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitotia fairchildiana). Among the legume species studied, D ovalifolium showed the lowest concentration of nitrogen, while L leucocephala showed the highest. Fibre (NDF) content was lowest in C calothyrsus, L Leucocephala and L pallida and highest in L macrophylla, which had no measurable condensed tannins. The highest tannin concentration was found in C calothyrsus. Total non-structural polysaccharides (NSP) varied among legumes species (lowest in C calothyrsus and highest in D ovalifolium), and glucose and uronic acids were the most abundant carbohydrate constituents in all legumes. Total NSP losses were lowest in F macrophylla and highest in L leucocephala and L pallida. Gas accumulation and acetate and propionate levels were 50% less with F macrophylla and D ovalifolium as compared with L leucocephala. The highest levels of branched-chain fatty acids were observed with non-tanniniferous legumes, and negative concentrations were observed with some of the legumes with high tannin content (D ovalifolium and F macrophylla). Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of condensed tannins was more related to a reduction of the initial rate of gas production (0-48 h) than to the final amount of gas produced or the extent (144h) of dry matter degradation, which could be due to differences in tannin chemistry. Consequently, more attention should be given in the future to elucidating the impact of tannin structure on the nutritional quality of tropical forage legumes. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on binary measures of undesirable events and continuous measures of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches where undesirable events and therapeutic benefit are both binary. A logistic regression model is used to model the binary responses, while a linear regression model is used to model the continuous responses. Prior distributions for the unknown model parameters are suggested. A gain function is discussed and an optional safety constraint is included. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Habitat correlates of distribution and local population decline of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus

Habitat-based statistical models relating patterns of presence and absence of species to habitat variables could be useful to resolve conservation-related problems and highlight the causes of population declines. In this paper, we apply such a modelling approach to an endemic amphibian, the Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, considered by IUCN a critically endangered species. Sardinian newts inhabit freshwater habitat in streams, small lakes and pools on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Reported declines of newt populations are not yet supported by quantitative data, however, they are perceived or suspected across the species' historical range. This study represents a first attempt trying to statistically relate habitat characteristics to Sardinian newt occurrence and persistence. Linear regression analysis revealed that newts are more likely to be found in sites with colder water temperature, less riparian vegetation and, marginally, absence of fish. The implications of the results for the conservation of the species are discussed, and suggestions for the short-term management of newt inhabited sites suggested. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of multiskilling on UK construction manpower

The overall significance of the construction and building services sector internationally cannot be overemphasised. In the UK, the industry currently accounts for 10% gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 2 million people, which is more than 1 in 14 of the total workforce. However, regardless of its output (approximately £65 billion annually) there has been a steady decline in the number of trade entrants into the construction and building services sector. Consequently, the available ‘pool of labour’ is inadequately resourced; productivity is low; the existing labour force is overstressed; there is an increase in site deaths; and a long-term labour shortage is envisaged. Today, the evidence seems to suggest that multiskilling is a tentative redress for ameliorating the skills crisis in the construction and building sectors. A 43-year time-series of data on 23 manpower attributes was evaluated as part of this investigation. The developed linear regression models show that the concept of multiskilling obeys the ‘law of diminishing returns'. That is, a weak relation was found between construction output and a three or more combination of manpower attributes. An optimisation model is prescribed for traditional trades.