Facing the wave of change: Stakeholder perspectives on climate adaptation for Australian seafood supply chains

Climate change is one of the most important issues confronting the sustainable supply of seafood, with projections suggesting major effects on wild and farmed fisheries worldwide. While climate change has been a consideration for Australian fisheries and aquaculture management, emphasis in both research and adaptation effort has been at the production end of supply chains—impacts further along the chain have been overlooked to date. A holistic biophysical and socio-economic system view of seafood industries, as represented by end-to-end supply chains, may lead to an additional set of options in the face of climate change, thus maximizing opportunities for improved fishery profitability, while also reducing the potential for maladaptation. In this paper, we explore Australian seafood industry stakeholder perspectives on potential options for adaptation along seafood supply chains based on future potential scenarios. Stakeholders, representing wild capture and aquaculture industries, provided a range of actions targeting different stages of the supply chain. Overall, proposed strategies were predominantly related to the production end of the supply chain, suggesting that greater attention in developing adaptation options is needed at post-production stages. However, there are chain-wide adaptation strategies that can present win–win scenarios, where commercial objectives beyond adaptation can also be addressed alongside direct or indirect impacts of climate. Likewise, certain adaptation strategies in place at one stage of the chain may have varying implications on other stages of the chain. These findings represent an important step in understanding the role of supply chains in effective adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture industries to climate change.

Creating change in government to address the social determinants of health: How can efforts be improved?

Background The evidence base for the impact of social determinants of health has been strengthened considerably in the last decade. Increasingly, the public health field is using this as a foundation for arguments and actions to change government policies. The Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach, alongside recommendations from the 2010 Marmot Review into health inequalities in the UK (which we refer to as the ‘Fairness Agenda’), go beyond advocating for the redesign of individual policies, to shaping the government structures and processes that facilitate the implementation of these policies. In doing so, public health is drawing on recent trends in public policy towards ‘joined up government’, where greater integration is sought between government departments, agencies and actors outside of government. Methods In this paper we provide a meta-synthesis of the empirical public policy research into joined up government, drawing out characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives. We use this thematic synthesis as a basis for comparing and contrasting emerging public health interventions concerned with joined-up action across government. Results We find that HiAP and the Fairness Agenda exhibit some of the characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives, however they also utilise ‘change instruments’ that have been found to be ineffective. Moreover, we find that – like many joined up initiatives – there is room for improvement in the alignment between the goals of the interventions and their design. Conclusion Drawing on public policy studies, we recommend a number of strategies to increase the efficacy of current interventions. More broadly, we argue that up-stream interventions need to be ‘fit-for-purpose’, and cannot be easily replicated from one context to the next.

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life: A randomized controlled trial

Background Multiple health behavior change can ameliorate adverse effects of cancer. Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention (CanChange) for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life. Methods A total of 410 colorectal cancer survivors were randomized to a 6-month telephone-based health coaching intervention (11 sessions using acceptance and commitment therapy strategies focusing on physical activity, weight management, diet, alcohol, and smoking) or usual care. Posttraumatic growth, spirituality, acceptance, mindfulness, distress, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results Significant intervention effects were observed for posttraumatic growth at 6 (7.5, p < 0.001) and 12 months (4.1, p = 0.033), spirituality at 6 months (1.8, p = 0.011), acceptance at 6 months (0.2, p = 0.005), and quality of life at 6 (0.8, p = 0.049) and 12 months (0.9, p = 0.037). Conclusions The intervention improved psychosocial outcomes and quality of life (physical well-being) at 6 months with most effects still present at 12 months. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12608000399392).

Randomised clinical trial of a family-based lifestyle intervention for childhood obesity involving parents as the exclusive agents of change

Parent-centred interventions for childhood obesity aim to improve parents' skills and confidence in managing children's dietary and activity patterns, and in promoting a healthy lifestyle in their family. However, few studies assess changes in parenting over the course of treatment. This study describes the evaluation of a lifestyle-specific parenting program (Group Lifestyle Triple P) on multiple child and parent outcomes. One-hundred-and-one families with overweight and obese 4- to 11-year-old children participated in an intervention or waitlist control condition. The 12-week intervention was associated with significant reductions in child BMI z score and weight-related problem behaviour. At the end of the intervention, parents reported increased confidence in managing children's weight-related behaviour, and less frequent use of inconsistent or coercive parenting practices. All short-term intervention effects were maintained at one-year follow-up assessment, with additional improvements in child body size. The results support the efficacy of Group Lifestyle Triple P and suggest that parenting influences treatment outcomes. Further research is needed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of the intervention and to elucidate the mechanisms of change. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Studying change in popular culture: A "middle-range" approach

"This chapter reviews the capacity of the discipline field to account for the velocity and quality of digitally-driven transformations, while making a case for a "middle range" approach that steers between unbridled optimism ("all-change") and determined scepticism ("Continuity") about the potential of such change. The chapter focuses on online screen distribution as a case study, considering the evidence for, and significance of, change in industry structure and the main payers, how content is produced and by whom, the nature of content, and the degree to which online screen distribution has reached thresholds of mainstream popularity."

Cumulative effects on the change of residual value in PPP projects: A comparative case study

Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Problems with geoengineering schemes to combat climate change

The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.

Equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture for the Base Change of Elliptic Curves: An Example

Let E be an elliptic curve defined over Q and let K/Q be a finite Galois extension with Galois group G. The equivariant Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture for h(1)(E x(Q) K)(1) viewed as amotive over Q with coefficients in Q[G] relates the twisted L-values associated with E with the arithmetic invariants of the same. In this paper I prescribe an approach to verify this conjecture for a given data. Using this approach, we verify the conjecture for an elliptic curve of conductor 11 and an S-3-extension of Q.

Unsteady Natural Convection Flow in a Square Cavity Filled with a Porous Medium Due to Impulsive Change in Wall Temperature

Unsteady natural convection flow in a two- dimensional square cavity filled with a porous material has been studied. The flow is initially steady where the left- hand vertical wall has temperature T-h and the right- hand vertical wall is maintained at temperature T-c ( T-h > T-c) and the horizontal walls are insulated. At time t > 0, the left- hand vertical wall temperature is suddenly raised to (T-h) over bar ((T-h) over bar > T-h) which introduces unsteadiness in the flow field. The partial differential equations governing the unsteady natural convection flow have been solved numerically using a finite control volume method. The computation has been carried out until the final steady state is reached. It is found that the average Nusselt number attains a minimum during the transient period and that the time required to reach the final steady state is longer for low Rayleigh number and shorter for high Rayleigh number.

Gendering climate change: A feminist criminological perspective

Drawing on insights from feminist scholars and activists, this article examines the dialectical relationship between climate change and the social construction of gender. We examine in detail how gender inequalities associated with capitalism, particularly in its latest Neoliberal incarnation, help to produce global warming, as well as to produce gendered vulnerabilities and unequal impacts. After a brief review of past successes and failures to integrate gender concerns into climate change debates and policies, we suggest several criminological interventions that are compatible with a feminist perspective on climate change. We argue that a stronger criminological focus on the global political economy, particularly on the gendered inequalities it produces, is analytically essential for understanding both the etiology and harmful consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, we urge critical criminologists to employ the tools of our trade to take a more proactive role in the social construction of a just and sustainable society.

Role of Melt Convection on the Thermal Performance of Heat Sinks with Phase Change Material

The role of melt convection oil the performance of beat sinks with Phase Change Material (PCM) is presented in this paper. The beat sink consists of aluminum plate fins embedded in PCM and heat flux is supplied from the bottom. The design of such a heat sink requires optimization with respect to its geometrical parameters. The objective of the optimization is to maximize the heat sink operation time for the prescribed heat flux and the critical chip temperature. The parameters considered for optimization are fin number and fill thickness. The height and base plate thickness of heat sink are kept constant in the present analysis. An enthalpy based CFD model is developed, which is capable Of Simulating phase change and associated melt convection. The CFD model is Coupled with Genetic Algorithm (GA) for carrying out the optimization. Two cases are considered, one without melt convection (conduction regime) and the other with convection. It is found that the geometrical optimizations of heat sinks are different for the two cases, indicating the importance of inch convection in the design of heat sinks with PCMs.

Language change as an evolutionary process

In the thesis it is discussed in what ways concepts and methodology developed in evolutionary biology can be applied to the explanation and research of language change. The parallel nature of the mechanisms of biological evolution and language change is explored along with the history of the exchange of ideas between these two disciplines. Against this background computational methods developed in evolutionary biology are taken into consideration in terms of their applicability to the study of historical relationships between languages. Different phylogenetic methods are explained in common terminology, avoiding the technical language of statistics. The thesis is on one hand a synthesis of earlier scientific discussion, and on the other an attempt to map out the problems of earlier approaches in addition to finding new guidelines in the study of language change on their basis. Primarily literature about the connections between evolutionary biology and language change, along with research articles describing applications of phylogenetic methods into language change have been used as source material. The thesis starts out by describing the initial development of the disciplines of evolutionary biology and historical linguistics, a process which right from the beginning can be seen to have involved an exchange of ideas concerning the mechanisms of language change and biological evolution. The historical discussion lays the foundation for the handling of the generalised account of selection developed during the recent few decades. This account is aimed for creating a theoretical framework capable of explaining both biological evolution and cultural change as selection processes acting on self-replicating entities. This thesis focusses on the capacity of the generalised account of selection to describe language change as a process of this kind. In biology, the mechanisms of evolution are seen to form populations of genetically related organisms through time. One of the central questions explored in this thesis is whether selection theory makes it possible to picture languages are forming populations of a similar kind, and what a perspective like this can offer to the understanding of language in general. In historical linguistics, the comparative method and other, complementing methods have been traditionally used to study the development of languages from a common ancestral language. Computational, quantitative methods have not become widely used as part of the central methodology of historical linguistics. After the fading of a limited popularity enjoyed by the lexicostatistical method since the 1950s, only in the recent years have also the computational methods of phylogenetic inference used in evolutionary biology been applied to the study of early language history. In this thesis the possibilities offered by the traditional methodology of historical linguistics and the new phylogenetic methods are compared. The methods are approached through the ways in which they have been applied to the Indo-European languages, which is the most thoroughly investigated language family using both the traditional and the phylogenetic methods. The problems of these applications along with the optimal form of the linguistic data used in these methods are explored in the thesis. The mechanisms of biological evolution are seen in the thesis as parallel in a limited sense to the mechanisms of language change, however sufficiently so that the development of a generalised account of selection is deemed as possibly fruiful for understanding language change. These similarities are also seen to support the validity of using phylogenetic methods in the study of language history, although the use of linguistic data and the models of language change employed by these models are seen to await further development.