Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions Shape Welfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation

In general, fiscal adjustments are associated with significant reductions in social spending. Hence, the welfare state is not spared from austerity. Because the welfare state is still central to party competition, this is electorally risky. The paper addresses the following questions: Do left parties differ from their centrist and rightist competitors in the design of austerity measures? And does government type has an impact on the extent to which austerity policies rely on social spending cuts? By comparing 17 OECD countries between 1982 and 2009 we show that if governments embark on a path to austerity, their ideology does not have a significant effect on the magnitude of welfare state retrenchment. However, if major opposition parties and interest groups rally against social spending cuts, a broad pro-reform coalition is a crucial precondition for large fiscal consolidation programs to rely on substantial cuts to social security.

Effects of overt self-­talk on team partners’ other-efficacy and performance in a golf putting task

Introduction According to Lent and Lopez’ (2002) tripartite view of efficacy beliefs, members of a team form beliefs about the efficacy of their team partners. This other-efficacy belief can influence individual performance as shown by Dunlop, Beatty, and Beauchamp (2011) in their experimental study using manipulated performance feedback to alter other-efficacy beliefs. Participants holding favorable other-efficacy beliefs outperformed those with lower other--‐efficacy beliefs. Antecedents of such other-efficacy beliefs are amongst others perceptions regarding motivation and psychological factors of the partner (Jackson, Knapp, & Beauchamp, 2008). Overt self-talk could be interpreted as the manifestation of such motivational or psychological factors. In line with this assumption, in an experimental study using dubbed videos of the same segment of a tennis match, Van Raalte, Brewer, Cornelius, and Petitpas (2006) found that players were perceived more favorably (e.g., more concentrated, and of higher ability levels) when shown with dubbed positive self-talk as compared to dubbed negative or no dubbed self--‐talk. Objectives The aim of the study was to examine the possible effects of a confederate’s overt self-talk on participants’ other-efficacy beliefs and performance in a team setting. Method In a laboratory experiment (between-subjects, pre-post-test design, matched by pretest performance) 89 undergraduate students (female = 35, M = 20.81 years, SD = 2.34) participated in a golf putting task together with a confederate (same gender groups). Depending on the experimental condition (positive, negative, or no self-talk), the confederate commented his or her putts according to a self-talk script. Bogus performance feedback assured that the performance of the confederate was held constant. Performance was measured as the distance to the center of the target, other-efficacy by a questionnaire. Results The data collection has just finished and the results of repeated measures analyses of variance will be presented and discussed at the congress. We expect to find higher other-efficacy beliefs and better individual performance in the positive self-talk condition. References Dunlop, W.L., Beatty, D.J., & Beauchamp, M.R. (2011). Examining the influence of other-efficacy and self-efficacy on personal performance. Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology, 33, 586-593. Jackson, B., Knapp, P., & Beauchamp, M.R. (2008). Origins and consequences of tripartite efficacy beliefs within elite athlete dyads. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 30, 512-540. Lent, R.W., & Lopez, F.G. (2002). Cognitive ties that bind: A tripartite view of efficacy beliefs in growth--‐promoting relationships. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 21, 256-286. Van Raalte, J.L., Brewer, B.W, Cornelius, A.E., & Petitpas, A.J. (2006). Self-presentational effects of self-talk on perceptions of tennis players. Hellenic Journal of Psychology, 3, 134-149.

The Alexander Technique and musicians: a systematic review of controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders, stress and performance anxiety are common in musicians. Therefore, some use the Alexander Technique (AT), a psycho-physical method that helps to release unnecessary muscle tension and re-educates non-beneficial movement patterns through intentional inhibition of unwanted habitual behaviours. According to a recent review AT sessions may be effective for chronic back pain. This review aimed to evaluate the evidence for the effectiveness of AT sessions on musicians' performance, anxiety, respiratory function and posture. METHODS: The following electronic databases were searched up to February 2014 for relevant publications: PUBMED, Google Scholar, CINAHL, EMBASE, AMED, PsycINFO and RILM. The search criteria were "Alexander Technique" AND "music*". References were searched, and experts and societies of AT or musicians' medicine contacted for further publications. RESULTS: 237 citations were assessed. 12 studies were included for further analysis, 5 of which were randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 5 controlled but not randomised (CTs), and 2 mixed methods studies. Main outcome measures in RCTs and CTs were music performance, respiratory function, performance anxiety, body use and posture. Music performance was judged by external experts and found to be improved by AT in 1 of 3 RCTs; in 1 RCT comparing neurofeedback (NF) to AT, only NF caused improvements. Respiratory function was investigated in 2 RCTs, but not improved by AT training. Performance anxiety was mostly assessed by questionnaires and decreased by AT in 2 of 2 RCTs and in 2 of 2 CTs. CONCLUSIONS: A variety of outcome measures have been used to investigate the effectiveness of AT sessions in musicians. Evidence from RCTs and CTs suggests that AT sessions may improve performance anxiety in musicians. Effects on music performance, respiratory function and posture yet remain inconclusive. Future trials with well-established study designs are warranted to further and more reliably explore the potential of AT in the interest of musicians.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Diagnosis of erosive tooth wear.

The clinical diagnosis 'erosion' is made from characteristic deviations from the original anatomical tooth morphology, thus distinguishing acid-induced tissue loss from other forms of wear. Primary pathognomonic features are shallow concavities on smooth surfaces occurring coronal from the enamel-cementum junction. Problems from diagnosing occlusal surfaces and exposed dentine are discussed. Indices for recording erosive wear include morphological as well as quantitative criteria. Currently, various indices are used, each having their virtues and flaws, making the comparison of prevalence studies difficult. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) is described, which is intended to provide an easy tool for research as well as for use in general dental practice. The cumulative score of this index is the sum of the most severe scores obtained from all sextants and is linked to suggestions for clinical management. In addition to recording erosive lesions, the assessment of progression is important as the indication of treatment measures depends on erosion activity. A number of evaluated and sensitive methods for in vitro and in situ approaches are available, but the fundamental problem for their clinical use is the lack of reidentifiable reference areas. Tools for clinical monitoring are described.

The Career Engagement Scale: Development and validation of a measure of proactive career behaviors

Careers today increasingly require engagement in proactive career behaviors; however, there is a lack of validated measures assessing the general degree to which somebody is engaged in such career behaviors. We describe the results of six studies with six independent samples of German university students (total N = 2,854), working professionals (total N = 561), and university graduates (N = 141) that report the development and validation of the Career Engagement Scale - a measure of the degree of which somebody is proactively developing her or his career as expressed by diverse career behaviors. The studies provide supprt for measurement invariance across gender and time. In support of convergent and discriminant validity, we find that career engagement is more prevalent among working professionals than among university students and that this scale has incremental validity above several specific career behaviors regarding its relation to vocational identity clarity and career self-efficacy beliefs among students and to job and career satisfaction among employees. In support of incremental predictive validity, beyond the effects of several more specific careeer behaviors, career engagement while at university predicts higher job and career satisfaction several months later after beginning work.

Promoting physical activity in overweight couples: Effectiveness of a dyadic action control trial (DYACTIC)

Background: Health behavior change models identify effective self-regulatory skills for behavioral change, but the social context is usually neglected. This study investigated the effectiveness of a dyadic conceptualization of action control for promoting physical activity. Methods: 121 overweight individuals and their partners were randomly allocated to one of two experimental (dyadic vs. individual action control) and two control conditions. Participants completed questionnaires at baseline (T1) and four weeks later (T2) including measures of action control and 7-day recall physical activity. Findings: Results showed that action control signi+cantly increased from T1 to T2 and was overall higher in the experimental conditions compared to control conditions. In terms of physical activity, no overall intervention effect emerged. However, post hoc analyses revealed higher mean levels of sport activities in the dyadic intervention group compared to all other groups. Discussion: Overall, +ndings provide +rst support for the usefulness of a dyadic action control intervention, and suggest further investigation of objective measures of physical activity and secondary outcomes

Effects of dark chocolate consumption on the prothrombotic response to acute psychosocial stress in healthy men

Flavanoid-rich dark chocolate consumption benefits cardiovascular health, but underlying mechanisms are elusive. We investigated the acute effect of dark chocolate on the reactivity of prothrombotic measures to psychosocial stress. Healthy men aged 20-50 years (mean ± SD: 35.7 ± 8.8) were assigned to a single serving of either 50 g of flavonoid-rich dark chocolate (n=31) or 50 g of optically identical flavonoid-free placebo chocolate (n=34). Two hours after chocolate consumption, both groups underwent an acute standardised psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic. We determined plasma levels of four stress-responsive prothrombotic measures (i. e., fibrinogen, clotting factor VIII activity, von Willebrand Factor antigen, fibrin D-dimer) prior to chocolate consumption, immediately before and after stress, and at 10 minutes and 20 minutes after stress cessation. We also measured the flavonoid epicatechin, and the catecholamines epinephrine and norepinephrine in plasma. The dark chocolate group showed a significantly attenuated stress reactivity of the hypercoagulability marker D-dimer (F=3.87, p=0.017) relative to the placebo chocolate group. Moreover, the blunted D-dimer stress reactivity related to higher plasma levels of the flavonoid epicatechin assessed before stress (F=3.32, p = 0.031) but not to stress-induced changes in catecholamines (p's=0.35). There were no significant group differences in the other coagulation measures (p's≥0.87). Adjustments for covariates did not alter these findings. In conclusion, our findings indicate that a single consumption of flavonoid-rich dark chocolate blunted the acute prothrombotic response to psychosocial stress, thereby perhaps mitigating the risk of acute coronary syndromes triggered by emotional stress.

Measuring Intensity of End of Life Care: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND Many studies have measured the intensity of end of life care. However, no summary of the measures used in the field is currently available. OBJECTIVES To summarise features, characteristics of use and reported validity of measures used for evaluating intensity of end of life care. METHODS This was a systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines. We performed a comprehensive literature search in Ovid Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews and reference lists published between 1990-2014. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, full texts and extracted data. Studies were eligible if they used a measure of end of life care intensity, defined as all quantifiable measures describing the type and intensity of medical care administered during the last year of life. RESULTS A total of 58 of 1590 potentially eligible studies met our inclusion criteria and were included. The most commonly reported measures were hospitalizations (n = 44), intensive care unit admissions (n = 39) and chemotherapy use (n = 27). Studies measured intensity of care in different timeframes ranging from 48 hours to 12 months. The majority of studies were conducted in cancer patients (n = 31). Only 4 studies included information on validation of the measures used. None evaluated construct validity, while 3 studies considered criterion and 1 study reported both content and criterion validity. CONCLUSIONS This review provides a synthesis to aid in choosing intensity of end of life care measures based on their previous use but simultaneously highlights the crucial need for more validation studies and consensus in the field.

Population mixing and the risk of childhood leukaemia in Switzerland: a census-based cohort study.

Childhood leukaemia (CL) may have an infectious cause and population mixing may therefore increase the risk of CL. We aimed to determine whether CL was associated with population mixing in Switzerland. We followed children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Cohort 1990-2008 and linked CL cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry to the cohort. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all CL, CL at age <5 years and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) for three measures of population mixing (population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin), stratified by degree of urbanisation. Measures of population mixing were calculated for all municipalities for the 5-year period preceding the 1990 and 2000 censuses. Analyses were based on 2,128,012 children of whom 536 developed CL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile of population growth were 1.11 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.89] in rural and 0.59 (95 % CI 0.43-0.81) in urban municipalities (interaction: p = 0.271). Results were similar for ALL and for CL at age <5 years. For level of in-migration there was evidence of a negative association with ALL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile were 0.60 (95 % CI 0.41-0.87) in urban and 0.61 (95 % CI 0.30-1.21) in rural settings. There was little evidence of an association with diversity of origin. This nationwide cohort study of the association between CL and population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin provides little support for the population mixing hypothesis.

A high-resolution map of direct and indirect connectivity of erosion risk areas to surface waters in Switzerland: A risk assessment tool for planning and policy-making

Off-site effects of soil erosion are becoming increasingly important, particularly the pollution of surface waters. In order to develop environmentally efficient and cost effective mitigation options it is essential to identify areas that bear both a high erosion risk and high connectivity to surface waters. This paper introduces a simple risk assessment tool that allows the delineation of potential critical source areas (CSA) of sediment input into surface waters concerning the agricultural areas of Switzerland. The basis are the erosion risk map with a 2 m resolution (ERM2) and the drainage network, which is extended by drained roads, farm tracks, and slope depressions. The probability of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity is assessed by combining soil erosion risk and extended drainage network with flow distance calculation. A GIS-environment with multiple-flow accumulation algorithms is used for routing runoff generation and flow pathways. The result is a high resolution connectivity map of the agricultural area of Switzerland (888,050 ha). Fifty-five percent of the computed agricultural area is potentially connected with surface waters, 45% is not connected. Surprisingly, the larger part of 34% (62% of the connected area) is indirectly connected with surface waters through drained roads, and only 21% are directly connected. The reason is the topographic complexity and patchiness of the landscape due to a dense road and drainage network. A total of 24% of the connected area and 13% of the computed agricultural area, respectively, are rated with a high connectivity probability. On these CSA an adapted land use is recommended, supported by vegetated buffer strips preventing sediment load. Even areas that are far away from open water bodies can be indirectly connected and need to be included in planning of mitigation measures. Thus, the connectivity map presented is an important decision-making tool for policy-makers and extension services. The map is published on the web and thus available for application.

From the Sea to Paris and back: On the interdependence of economic warfare, weather conditions and the submarine campaign 1916-1917

Starting of from Avner Offer’s comment that the First World War was not only a war of steel and gold, but also of bread and potatoes (1989: 1) and my own research on British as well as Australian preparations for economic warfare and based on sources from the entente as well as the central powers but also from the United States, Canada and Australia, may presentation will focus on the interdependence of the measures taken by entente as well as central power authorities in the second half of 1916. Already a year before both sides had become aware that this war would not only be decided on the battlefield, but that the issues of primary as well as secondary resources would be decisive. Accordingly measures that could strike the enemy in this field were discussed and put into place more and more and this at time, when weather conditions caused a reduction of harvest all over Europe, Northern America and Argentina.

Threat of alveolar echinococcosis to public health - a challenge for Europe

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a neglected 'malignant' parasitic disease. The European endemic area of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes is larger than previously anticipated, and there is new evidence that both fox populations and the prevalence of E. multilocularis have increased in many areas, indicating increased pressure for infection with E. multilocularis eggs in intermediate and accidental hosts, including humans. This may result in more human AE cases within the next decades. Current numbers of both immunocompetent and immunocompromised AE patients, and the anticipated future increase, call for scaling-up research to rapidly improve the development and implementation of prevention measures, early diagnosis, and curative treatment of human AE.

On degeneracy and invariances of random fields paths with applications in Gaussian process modelling

We study pathwise invariances and degeneracies of random fields with motivating applications in Gaussian process modelling. The key idea is that a number of structural properties one may wish to impose a priori on functions boil down to degeneracy properties under well-chosen linear operators. We first show in a second order set-up that almost sure degeneracy of random field paths under some class of linear operators defined in terms of signed measures can be controlled through the two first moments. A special focus is then put on the Gaussian case, where these results are revisited and extended to further linear operators thanks to state-of-the-art representations. Several degeneracy properties are tackled, including random fields with symmetric paths, centred paths, harmonic paths, or sparse paths. The proposed approach delivers a number of promising results and perspectives in Gaussian process modelling. In a first numerical experiment, it is shown that dedicated kernels can be used to infer an axis of symmetry. Our second numerical experiment deals with conditional simulations of a solution to the heat equation, and it is found that adapted kernels notably enable improved predictions of non-linear functionals of the field such as its maximum.