Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

A probabilistic indirect adaptive control for systems with input-dependent noise

A probabilistic indirect adaptive controller is proposed for the general nonlinear multivariate class of discrete time system. The proposed probabilistic framework incorporates input–dependent noise prediction parameters in the derivation of the optimal control law. Moreover, because noise can be nonstationary in practice, the proposed adaptive control algorithm provides an elegant method for estimating and tracking the noise. For illustration purposes, the developed method is applied to the affine class of nonlinear multivariate discrete time systems and the desired result is obtained: the optimal control law is determined by solving a cubic equation and the distribution of the tracking error is shown to be Gaussian with zero mean. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is demonstrated numerically through the simulation of an affine nonlinear system.

Constrained nonparametric estimation of input distance function

This paper proposes a constrained nonparametric method of estimating an input distance function. A regression function is estimated via kernel methods without functional form assumptions. To guarantee that the estimated input distance function satisfies its properties, monotonicity constraints are imposed on the regression surface via the constraint weighted bootstrapping method borrowed from statistics literature. The first, second, and cross partial analytical derivatives of the estimated input distance function are derived, and thus the elasticities measuring input substitutability can be computed from them. The method is then applied to a cross-section of 3,249 Norwegian timber producers.

Optimum Trajectory of Dynamic Input-Output Balance Model for Open Economy

When export and import is connected with output of basic production, and criterion functional represents a final state of economy, the generalization of classical qualitative results of the main-line theory on a case of dynamic input-output balance optimization model for open economy is given.

Conical refraction healing after partially blocking the input beam

In conical refraction, when a focused Gaussian beam passes along one of the optic axes of a biaxial crystal, it is transformed into a pair of concentric bright rings at the focal plane. We demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that this transformation is hardly affected by partially blocking the Gaussian input beam with an obstacle. We analyze the influence of the size of the obstruction both on the transverse intensity pattern of the beam and on its state of polarization, which is shown to be very robust.

Novel input-output prediction approach for biomass pyrolysis

Biomass pyrolysis to bio-oil is one of the promising sustainable fuels. In this work, relation between biomass feedstock element characteristic and pyrolysis process outputs was explored. The element characteristics considered in this study include moisture, ash, fix carbon, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulphur. A semi-batch fixed bed reactor was used for biomass pyrolysis with heating rate of 30 °C/min from room temperature to 600 °C and the reactor was held at 600 °C for 1 h before cooling down. Constant nitrogen flow rate of 5 L/min was provided for anaerobic condition. Rice husk, Sago biomass and Napier grass were used in the study to form different element characteristic of feedstock by altering mixing ratio. Comparison between each element characteristic to total produced bio-oil yield, aqueous phase bio-oil yield, organic phase bio-oil yield, higher heating value of organic phase bio-oil, and organic bio-oil compounds was conducted. The results demonstrate that process performance is associated with feedstock properties, which can be used as a platform to access the process feedstock element acceptance range to estimate the process outputs. Ultimately, this work evaluated the element acceptance range for proposed biomass pyrolysis technology to integrate alternative biomass species feedstock based on element characteristic to enhance the flexibility of feedstock selection.

A seismic shift? An evaluation of the impact of new media on perceptions of freedom of expression and privacy

New media platforms have changed the media landscape forever, as they have altered our perceptions of the limits of communication, and reception of information. Platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp enable individuals to circumvent the traditional mass media, converging audience and producer to create millions of ‘citizen journalists’. This new breed of journalist uses these platforms as a way of, not only receiving news, but of instantaneously, and often spontaneously, expressing opinions and venting and sharing emotions, thoughts and feelings. They are liberated from cultural and physical restraints, such as time, space and location, and they are not constrained by factors that impact upon the traditional media, such as editorial control, owner or political bias or the pressures of generating commercial revenue. A consequence of the way in which these platforms have become ingrained within our social culture is that habits, conventions and social norms, that were once informal and transitory manifestations of social life, are now infused within their use. What were casual and ephemeral actions and/or acts of expression, such as conversing with friends or colleagues or swapping/displaying pictures, or exchanging thoughts that were once kept private, or maybe shared with a select few, have now become formalised and potentially permanent, on view for the world to see. Incidentally, ‘traditional’ journalists and media outlets are also utilising new media, as it allows them to react, and disseminate news, instantaneously, within a hyper-competitive marketplace. However, in a world where we are saturated, not only by citizen journalists, but by traditional media outlets, offering access to news and opinion twenty-four hours a day, via multiple new media platforms, there is increased pressure to ‘break’ news fast and first. This paper will argue that new media, and the culture and environment it has created, for citizen journalists, traditional journalists and the media generally, has altered our perceptions of the limits and boundaries of freedom of expression dramatically, and that the corollary to this seismic shift is the impact on the notion of privacy and private life. Consequently, this paper will examine what a reasonable expectation of privacy may now mean, in a new media world.

Expanding the biomass resource:sustainable oil production via fast pyrolysis of low input high diversity biomass and the potential integration of thermochemical and biological conversion routes

Waste biomass is generated during the conservation management of semi-natural habitats, and represents an unused resource and potential bioenergy feedstock that does not compete with food production. Thermogravimetric analysis was used to characterise a representative range of biomass generated during conservation management in Wales. Of the biomass types assessed, those dominated by rush (Juncus effuses) and bracken (Pteridium aquilinum) exhibited the highest and lowest volatile compositions respectively and were selected for bench scale conversion via fast pyrolysis. Each biomass type was ensiled and a sub-sample of silage was washed and pressed. Demineralization of conservation biomass through washing and pressing was associated with higher oil yields following fast pyrolysis. The oil yields were within the published range established for the dedicated energy crops miscanthus and willow. In order to examine the potential a multiple output energy system was developed with gross power production estimates following valorisation of the press fluid, char and oil. If used in multi fuel industrial burners the char and oil alone would displace 3.9 × 105 tonnes per year of No. 2 light oil using Welsh biomass from conservation management. Bioenergy and product development using these feedstocks could simultaneously support biodiversity management and displace fossil fuels, thereby reducing GHG emissions. Gross power generation predictions show good potential.

The calculation of dynamic ecological footprint on the basis of the dynamic input-output model

The Leontief input-output model is widely used to determine the ecological footprint of consumption in a region or a country. It is able to capture spillover environmental effects along the supply change, thus its popularity is increasing in ecology related economic research. These studies are static and the dynamic investigations are neglected. The dynamic Leontief model makes it possible to involve the capital and inventory investment in the footprint calculation that projects future growth of GDP and environmental impacts. We show a new calculation method to determine the effect of capital accumulation on ecological footprint. Keywords: Dynamic Leontief model, Dynamic ecological footprint, Environmental management, Allocation method

A magyar felsőoktatási rendszer válaszai társadalmi-gazdasági kihívásokra. A felsőoktatás input-output elemzése versenykörnyezetben

A magyar felsőoktatás 2004-től számos tekintetben radikális fordulatot él át. Az abszolút tömegesedés időszaka véget ért. Továbbra is beszélhetünk ugyanakkor relatív tömegesedésről. A relatív tömegesedés a negatív demográfiai trenddel párosulva az egyik meghatározó kihívás a kormányzat és a felsőoktatási intézmények számára egyaránt. Az előadás ebből az alaphelyzetből kiindulva sorra veszi a felsőoktatási intézményeket input és output oldalon érő kihívásokat és szembesíti ezeket részben a szabályozási környezettel, másrészt pedig a stakeholderek igényeivel, illetve a felsőoktatási teljesítménnyel. A kihívások és kihívásokra adott válaszok egy tágabb regionális és globális térben is értelmezést nyernek.

A Dynamic Input-Output Model with Renewable Resources

The paper studies a generalisation of the dynamic Leontief input-output model. The standard dynamic Leontief model will be extended with the balance equation of renewable resources. The renewable stocks will increase regenerating and decrease exploiting primary natural resources. In this study the controllability of this extended model is examined by taking the consumption as the control parameter. Assuming balanced growth for both consumption and production, we investigate the exhaustion of renewable resources in dependence on the balanced growth rate and on the rate of natural regeneration. In doing so, classic results from control theory and on eigenvalue problems in linear algebra are applied.

A Dynamic Input-Output Model with Renewable Resources

The paper studies a generalisation of the dynamic Leontief input-output model. The standard dynamic Leontief model will be extended with the balance equation of renewable resources. The renewable stocks will increase regenerating and decrease exploiting primary natural resources. In this study the controllability of this extended model is examined by taking the consumption as the control parameter. Assuming balanced growth for both consumption and production, we investigate the exhaustion of renewable resources in dependence on the balanced growth rate and on the rate of natural regeneration. In doing so, classic results from control theory and on eigenvalue problems in linear algebra are applied.

On the accuracy of nonsurvey regional input-output multipliers: An empirical study

Correct specification of the simple location quotients in regionalizing the national direct requirements table is essential to the accuracy of regional input-output multipliers. The purpose of this research is to examine the relative accuracy of these multipliers when earnings, employment, number of establishments, and payroll data specify the simple location quotients.^ For each specification type, I derive a column of total output multipliers and a column of total income multipliers. These multipliers are based on the 1987 benchmark input-output accounts of the U.S. economy and 1988-1992 state of Florida data.^ Error sign tests, and Standardized Mean Absolute Deviation (SMAD) statistics indicate that the output multiplier estimates overestimate the output multipliers published by the Department of Commerce-Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the state of Florida. In contrast, the income multiplier estimates underestimate the BEA's income multipliers. For a given multiplier type, the Spearman-rank correlation analysis shows that the multiplier estimates and the BEA multipliers have statistically different rank ordering of row elements. The above tests also find no significant different differences, both in size and ranking distributions, among the vectors of multiplier estimates. ^

Assessing the effectiveness of two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior colleges in Taiwan, R.O.C.: An application of the Context Input Process Product (CIPP) evaluation model

The purpose of this descriptive study was to evaluate the banking and insurance technology curriculum at ten junior colleges in Taiwan. The study focused on curriculum, curriculum materials, instruction, support services, student achievement and job performance. Data was collected from a diverse sample of faculty, students, alumni, and employers. ^ Questionnaires on the evaluation of curriculum at technical junior colleges were developed for use in this specific case. Data were collected from the sample described above and analyzed utilizing ANOVA, T-Tests and crosstabulations. Findings are presented which indicate that there is room for improvement in terms of meeting individual students' needs. ^ Using Stufflebeam's CIPP model for curriculum evaluation it was determined that the curriculum was adequate in terms of the knowledge and skills imparted to students. However, students were dissatisfied with the rigidity of the curriculum and the lack of opportunity to satisfy the individual needs of students. Employers were satisfied with both the academic preparation of students and their on the job performance. ^ In sum, the curriculum of the two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior college in Taiwan was shown to have served adequately preparing a work force to enter businesses. It is now time to look toward the future and adapt the curriculum and instruction for the future needs of the ever evolving high-tech society. ^

Seismic performance of hybrid fiber reinforced polymer-concrete pier frame systems

As an alternative to transverse spiral or hoop steel reinforcement, fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs) were introduced to the construction industry in the 1980’s. The concept of concrete-filled FRP tube (CFFT) has raised great interest amongst researchers in the last decade. FRP tube can act as a pour form, protective jacket, and shear and flexural reinforcement for concrete. However, seismic performance of CFFT bridge substructure has not yet been fully investigated. Experimental work in this study included four two-column bent tests, several component tests and coupon tests. Four 1/6-scale bridge pier frames, consisting of a control reinforced concrete frame (RCF), glass FRP-concrete frame (GFF), carbon FRP-concrete frame (CFF), and hybrid glass/carbon FRP-concrete frame (HFF) were tested under reverse cyclic lateral loading with constant axial loads. Specimen GFF did not show any sign of cracking at a drift ratio as high as 15% with considerable loading capacity, whereas Specimen CFF showed that lowest ductility with similar load capacity as in Specimen GFF. FRP-concrete columns and pier cap beams were then cut from the pier frame specimens, and were tested again in three point flexure under monotonic loading with no axial load. The tests indicated that bonding between FRP and concrete and yielding of steel both affect the flexural strength and ductility of the components. The coupon tests were carried out to establish the tensile strength and elastic modulus of each FRP tube and the FRP mold for the pier cap beam in the two principle directions of loading. A nonlinear analytical model was developed to predict the load-deflection responses of the pier frames. The model was validated against test results. Subsequently, a parametric study was conducted with variables such as frame height to span ratio, steel reinforcement ratio, FRP tube thickness, axial force, and compressive strength of concrete. A typical bridge was also simulated under three different ground acceleration records and damping ratios. Based on the analytical damage index, the RCF bridge was most severely damaged, whereas the GFF bridge only suffered minor repairable damages. Damping ratio was shown to have a pronounced effect on FRP-concrete bridges, just the same as in conventional bridges. This research was part of a multi-university project, which is founded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) - Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Research (NEESR) program.