Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase as predictors for breast cancer recurrence: a combined analysis of seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the ability of CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) to predict breast cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials were combined. The primary end point was relapse-free survival (RFS) (time from randomization to first breast cancer recurrence), and analyses included 3953 patients with one or more CA15-3 and ALP measurement during their RFS period. CA15-3 was considered abnormal if >30 U/ml or >50% higher than the first value recorded; ALP was recorded as normal, abnormal, or equivocal. Cox proportional hazards models with a time-varying indicator for abnormal CA15-3 and/or ALP were utilized. RESULTS: Overall, 784 patients (20%) had a recurrence, before which 274 (35%) had one or more abnormal CA15-3 and 35 (4%) had one or more abnormal ALP. Risk of recurrence increased by 30% for patients with abnormal CA15-3 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30; P = 0.0005], and by 4% for those with abnormal ALP (HR = 1.04; P = 0.82). Recurrence risk was greatest for patients with either (HR = 2.40; P < 0.0001) and with both (HR = 4.69; P < 0.0001) biomarkers abnormal. ALP better predicted liver recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: CA15-3 was better able to predict breast cancer recurrence than ALP, but use of both biomarkers together provided a better early indicator of recurrence. Whether routine use of these biomarkers improves overall survival remains an open question.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of resin-bonded bridges after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the 5-year survival of resin-bonded bridges (RBBs) and to describe the incidence of technical and biological complications. METHODS: An electronic Medline search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on RBBs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Patients had to have been examined clinically at the follow-up visit. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poissons regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 6110 titles and 214 abstracts. Full-text analysis was performed for 93 articles, resulting in 17 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated survival of RBBs of 87.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.6-91.9%) after 5 years. The most frequent complication was debonding (loss of retention), which occurred in 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8-26.3%) of RBBs over an observation period of 5 years. The annual debonding rate for RBBs placed on posterior teeth (5.03%) tended to be higher than that for anterior-placed RBBs (3.05%). This difference, however, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.157). Biological complications, like caries on abutments and RBBs lost due to periodontitis, occurred in 1.5% of abutments and 2.1% of RBBs, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the high survival rate of RBBs, technical complications like debonding are frequent. This in turn means that a substantial amount of extra chair time may be needed following the incorporation of RBBs. There is thus an urgent need for studies with a follow-up time of 10 years or more, to evaluate the long-term outcomes.

A systematic review of the 5-year survival and complication rates of implant-supported single crowns

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this systematic review was to assess the 5-year survival of implant-supported single crowns (SCs) and to describe the incidence of biological and technical complications. METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on SCs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson's regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies from an initial yield of 3601 titles were finally selected and data were extracted. In a meta-analysis of these studies, survival of implants supporting SCs was 96.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 95.9-97.6%] after 5 years. The survival rate of SCs supported by implants was 94.5% (95% CI: 92.5-95.9%) after 5 years of function. The survival rate of metal-ceramic crowns, 95.4% (95% CI: 93.6-96.7%), was significantly (P=0.005) higher than the survival rate, 91.2% (95% CI: 86.8-94.2%), of all-ceramic crowns. Peri-implantitis and soft tissue complications occurred adjacent to 9.7% of the SCs and 6.3% of the implants had bone loss exceeding 2 mm over the 5-year observation period. The cumulative incidence of implant fractures after 5 years was 0.14%. After 5 years, the cumulative incidence of screw or abutment loosening was 12.7% and 0.35% for screw or abutment fracture. For supra-structure-related complications, the cumulative incidence of ceramic or veneer fractures was 4.5%. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that after an observation period of 5 years, high survival rates for implants and implant-supported SCs can be expected. However, biological and particularly technical complications are frequent.

Anemia is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and decreased long-term survival after endovascular AAA repair

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is a common comorbid condition in various inflammatory states and an established predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and end-stage renal disease. The present study of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular repair (EVAR) assessed the relationships between baseline hemoglobin concentration and AAA size, as well as anemia and long-term survival. METHODS: Between March 1994 and November 2006, 711 patients (65 women, mean age 75.8 +/- 7.8 years) underwent elective EVAR. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level <13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Post-EVAR mean follow-up was 48.3 +/- 32.0 months. Association of hemoglobin level with AAA size was assessed with multiple linear regression. Mortality was determined with use of the internet-based Social Security Death Index and the electronic hospital record. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of anemic and nonanemic patient groups were compared by the log-rank method. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the influence of anemia on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: A total of 218/711 (30.7%) of AAA patients undergoing EVAR had anemia at baseline. After adjustment for various risk factors, hemoglobin level was inversely related to maximum AAA diameter (beta: - .144, 95%-CI: -1.482 - .322, P = .002). Post-EVAR survival was 65.5% at 5 years and 44.4% at 10 years. In long-term follow-up, survival was significantly lower in patients with anemia as compared to patients without anemia (P < .0001 by log-rank). Baseline hemoglobin levels were independently related to long-term mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for various risk factors (adjusted HR: 0.866, 95% CI: .783 to .958, P = .005). Within this model, statin use (adjusted HR: .517, 95% CI: .308 to .868, P = .013) was independently related to long-term survival, whereas baseline AAA diameter (adjusted HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.036, P = .001) was an independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline hemoglobin concentration is independently associated with AAA size and reduced long-term survival following EVAR. Thus, the presence or absence of anemia offers a potential refinement of existing risk stratification instruments.

[Retinal abnormalities in adult acute myeloid leukemia: semeiological features and prognostic correlations. Analysis of 178 cases]

INTRODUCTION: Adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) frequently present retinal abnormalities. We tried to find a relationship between fundus lesions and treatment responsiveness, prognosis, and several hematologic parameters. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined 178 adult patients with newly diagnosed AML. All patients were assigned to two groups regarding retinal parameters (1 or 2) and age (A or B). Group 1 included cases with retinal dysfunction classified as retinal abnormalities with impaired visual acuity; group 2 included cases with no or only minor retinal changes. Subgroup A included patients younger than 60 years (n=97), subgroup B patients older than 60 years (n=81). RESULTS: In this study, higher age and a lower Hb value were associated with retinal findings (group 1). Among the younger patients (subgroup A), 78% of those with complete remission had no retinal findings (group 2) compared to 18% of the nonresponders. In the elderly population (subgroup B), this ratio was 58% versus 19%. In the younger patients (subgroup A), the mean overall survival was 50 months if they had no retinal abnormalities (group 2) and 7 months in the case of retinal changes (group 1). In the older population (subgroup B), the ratio was 15 months versus 3 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: Retinal abnormalities in AML are generally associated with higher age, although they correlate with a shorter survival in both age groups. This association is stronger in younger patients.

Apparent survival of the salamander

Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.

A systematic review of the success of sinus floor elevation and survival of implants inserted in combination with sinus floor elevation. Part II: transalveolar technique

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the survival rate of implants placed in sites with transalveolar sinus floor elevation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on transalveolar sinus floor elevation, with a mean follow-up time of at least 1 year after functional loading. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates/ year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 849 titles. Full-text analysis was performed for 176 articles, resulting in 19 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated annual failure rate of 2.48% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.37-4.49%) translating to an estimated survival rate of 92.8% (95% CI): 87.4-96.0%) for implants placed in transalveolarly augmented sinuses, after 3 years in function. Furthermore, subject-based analysis revealed an estimated annual failure of 3.71% (95% CI: 1.21-11.38%), translating to 10.5% (95% CI: 3.6-28.9%) of the subjects experiencing implant loss over 3 years. CONCLUSION: Survival rates of implants placed in transalveolar sinus floor augmentation sites are comparable to those in non-augmented sites. This technique is predictable with a low incidence of complications during and post-operatively.

A systematic review of the success of sinus floor elevation and survival of implants inserted in combination with sinus floor elevation

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the survival rate of grafts and implants placed with sinus floor elevation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search was conducted to identify studies on sinus floor elevation, with a mean follow-up time of at least 1 year after functional loading. RESULTS: The search provided 839 titles. Full-text analysis was performed for 175 articles resulting in 48 studies that met the inclusion criteria, reporting on 12,020 implants. Meta-analysis indicated an estimated annual failure rate of 3.48% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.48%-4.88%] translating into a 3-year implant survival of 90.1% (95% CI: 86.4%-92.8%). However, when failure rates was analyzed on the subject level, the estimated annual failure was 6.04% (95% CI: 3.87%-9.43%) translating into 16.6% (95% CI: 10.9%-24.6%) of the subjects experiencing implant loss over 3 years. CONCLUSION: The insertion of dental implants in combination with maxillary sinus floor elevation is a predictable treatment method showing high implant survival rates and low incidences of surgical complications. The best results (98.3% implant survival after 3 years) were obtained using rough surface implants with membrane coverage of the lateral window.

Statins are associated with decreased mortality in abdominal, but not in thoracic aortic aneurysm patients undergoing endovascular repair: propensity score-adjusted analysis

BACKGROUND: Purpose of this study was to compare the correlation of statin use with long-term mortality in patients with abdominal (AAA) and thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared long-term survival of 731 AAA and 59 TAA patients undergoing elective endovascular repair (EVAR). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared by the log-rank method. Propensity score-adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine independent associations of statin use on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: Statin use was associated with decreased long-term mortality in AAA patients in bivariate and multivariable regression analysis, in which the effect of propensity to receive a statin was considered (adjusted HR: .613, 95%-CI: .379- .993, p = .047) whereas mortality of TAA patients was not associated with use of statins (adjusted HR: 1.795, 95%-CI: .147 -21.942, p = .647). CONCLUSIONS: Use of statins is an independent predictor of decreased mortality after elective EVAR in AAA, but not in TAA patients. These findings indirectly support the concept of a distinct pathogenesis of AAA and TAA.

Matched-pair analysis of endovascular versus open surgical repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in young patients at low risk

PURPOSE: To compare clinical outcomes of endovascular and open aortic repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in young patients at low risk. It was hypothesized that endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compares favorably with open aneurysm repair (OAR) in these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five patients aged 65 years or younger with a low perioperative surgical risk profile underwent EVAR at a single institution between April 1994 and May 2007 (23 men; mean age, 62 years+/-2.8). A sex- and risk-matched control group of 25 consecutive patients aged 65 years or younger who underwent OAR was used as a control group (23 men; mean age, 59 years+/-3.9). Patient outcomes and complications were classified according to Society of Vascular Surgery/International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery reporting standards. RESULTS: Mean follow-up times were 7.1 years+/-3.2 after EVAR and 5.9 years+/-1.8 after OAR (P=.1020). Total complication rates were 20% after EVAR and 52% after OAR (P=.0378), and all complications were mild or moderate. Mean intensive care unit times were 0.2 days+/-0.4 after EVAR and 1.1 days+/-0.4 after OAR (P<.0001) and mean lengths of hospital stay were 2.3 days+/-1.0 after EVAR and 5.0 days+/-2.1 after OAR (P<.0001). Cumulative rates of long-term patient survival did not differ between EVAR and OAR (P=.144). No AAA-related deaths or aortoiliac ruptures occurred during follow-up for EVAR and OAR. In addition, no surgical conversions were necessary in EVAR recipients. Cumulative rates of freedom from secondary procedures were not significantly different between the EVAR and OAR groups (P=.418). Within a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis adjusted for patient age, maximum AAA diameter, and cardiac risk score, all-cause mortality rates (odds ratio [OR], 0.125; 95% CI, 0.010-1.493; P=.100) and need for secondary procedures (OR, 5.014; 95% CI, 0.325-77.410; P=.537) were not different between EVAR and OAR. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this observational study indicate that EVAR offers a favorable alternative to OAR in young patients at low risk.

Impact of copper mine tailings (stamp sand) on survival and development of aquatic organisms near Gay, Michigan

Heavy metal-rich copper mine tailings, called stamp sands, were dumped by mining companies directly into streams and along the Lake Superior shoreline, degrading Keweenaw Peninsula waterways. One of the largest disposal sites is near Gay, Michigan, where tailings have been moved along the shoreline by currents since mining ceased. As a result, the smallest sand particles have been washed into deeper water and are filling the interstitial spaces of Buffalo Reef, a critical lake trout spawning site. This research is the first to investigate if stamp sand is detrimental to survival and early development of eggs and larvae of lake sturgeon, lake trout, and Northern leopard frogs, and also examines if the presence of stamp sands influences substrate selection of earthworms. This study found that stamp sand had significantly larger mean particle sizes and irregular shapes compared to natural sand, and earthworms show a strong preference for natural substrate over any combination that included stamp sand. Additionally, copper analysis (Cu2+) of surface water over stamp sand and natural sand showed concentrations were significantly higher in stamp sand surface water (100 μg/L) compared to natural sand surface water (10 μg/L). Frog embryos had similar hatch success over both types of sand, but tadpoles reared over natural sand grew faster and had higher survival rates. Eggs of lake sturgeon showed similar hatch success and development over natural vs. stamp sand over 17 days, while lake trout eggs hatched earlier and developed faster when incubated over stamp sand, yet showed similar development over a 163 day period. Copper from stamp sand appears to impact amphibians more than fish species in this study. These results will help determine what impact stamp sand has on organisms found throughout the Keweenaw Peninsula which encounter the material at some point in their life history.

Dextran sulfate facilitates anti-CD4 mAb-induced long-term rat cardiac allograft survival after prolonged cold ischemia

Ischemia/reperfusion injury leads to activation of graft endothelial cells (EC), boosting antigraft immunity and impeding tolerance induction. We hypothesized that the complement inhibitor and EC-protectant dextran sulfate (DXS, MW 5000) facilitates long-term graft survival induced by non-depleting anti-CD4 mAb (RIB 5/2). Hearts from DA donor rats were heterotopically transplanted into Lewis recipients treated with RIB 5/2 (20 mg/kg, days-1,0,1,2,3; i.p.) with or without DXS (grafts perfused with 25 mg, recipients treated i.v. with 25 mg/kg on days 1,3 and 12.5 mg/kg on days 5,7,9,11,13,15). Cold graft ischemia time was 20 min or 12 h. Median survival time (MST) was comparable between RIB 5/2 and RIB 5/2+DXS-treated recipients in the 20-min group with >175-day graft survival. In the 12-h group RIB 5/2 only led to chronic rejection (MST = 49.5 days) with elevated alloantibody response, whereas RIB 5/2+DXS induced long-term survival (MST >100 days, p < 0.05) with upregulation of genes related to transplantation tolerance. Analysis of the 12-h group treated with RIB 5/2+DXS at 1-day posttransplantation revealed reduced EC activation, complement deposition and inflammatory cell infiltration. In summary, DXS attenuates I/R-induced acute graft injury and facilitates long-term survival in this clinically relevant transplant model.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.

Erythropoietin or Darbepoetin for patients with cancer--meta-analysis based on individual patient data

BACKGROUND: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) reduce anemia in cancer patients and may improve quality of life, but there are concerns that ESAs might increase mortality. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to examine the effect of ESAs and identify factors that modify the effects of ESAs on overall survival, progression free survival, thromboembolic and cardiovascular events as well as need for transfusions and other important safety and efficacy outcomes in cancer patients. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase and conference proceedings for eligible trials. Manufacturers of ESAs were contacted to identify additional trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials comparing epoetin or darbepoetin plus red blood cell transfusions (as necessary) versus red blood cell transfusions (as necessary) alone, to prevent or treat anemia in adult or pediatric cancer patients with or without concurrent antineoplastic therapy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing epoetin alpha, epoetin beta or darbepoetin alpha plus red blood cell transfusions versus transfusion alone, for prophylaxis or therapy of anemia while or after receiving anti-cancer treatment. Patient-level data were obtained and analyzed by independent statisticians at two academic departments, using fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analysis. Analyses were according to the intention-to-treat principle. Primary endpoints were on study mortality and overall survival during the longest available follow-up, regardless of anticancer treatment, and in patients receiving chemotherapy. Tests for interactions were used to identify differences in effects of ESAs on mortality across pre-specified subgroups. The present review reports only the results for the primary endpoint. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 13933 cancer patients from 53 trials were analyzed, 1530 patients died on-study and 4993 overall. ESAs increased on study mortality (combined hazard ratio [cHR] 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.30) and worsened overall survival (cHR 1.06; 95% CI 1.00-1.12), with little heterogeneity between trials (I(2) 0%, p=0.87 and I(2) 7.1%, p=0.33, respectively). Thirty-eight trials enrolled 10441 patients receiving chemotherapy. The cHR for on study mortality was 1.10 (95% CI 0.98-1.24) and 1.04; 95% CI 0.97-1.11) for overall survival. There was little evidence for a difference between trials of patients receiving different cancer treatments (P for interaction=0.42). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: ESA treatment in cancer patients increased on study mortality and worsened overall survival. For patients undergoing chemotherapy the increase was less pronounced, but an adverse effect could not be excluded.