824 resultados para Risk evaluation


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A comprehensive voltage imbalance sensitivity analysis and stochastic evaluation based on the rating and location of single-phase grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic cells (PVs) in a residential low voltage distribution network are presented. The voltage imbalance at different locations along a feeder is investigated. In addition, the sensitivity analysis is performed for voltage imbalance in one feeder when PVs are installed in other feeders of the network. A stochastic evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is carried out to investigate the risk index of the non-standard voltage imbalance in the network in the presence of PVs. The network voltage imbalance characteristic based on different criteria of PV rating and location and network conditions is generalized. Improvement methods are proposed for voltage imbalance reduction and their efficacy is verified by comparing their risk index using Monte Carlo simulations.

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A significant number of children suffer long term psychological disturbance following exposure to a natural disaster. Evidence suggests that a dose-response relationship exists, so that children and adolescents who experience the most intense or extensive exposure to the risk factors for PTSD are likely to develop the most serious and persistent symptoms. Risk factors include gender, age, personality, extent of exposure to the natural disaster, amount of damage to property and infrastructure, witnessing injury or death of others or perceiving a threat to their own life. Knowing these factors enables various strategies to be put in place to decrease the risk of psychological disturbance following the aftermath of traumatic events. Re-establishing a sense of safety, security and normality is important in the aftermath of a natural disaster, and promoting social connectedness, positive family functioning, and effective coping mechanisms can make children more resilient in the face of catastrophic events. This paper examines the risk and protective factors associated with the development of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and considers how schools can use this knowledge to contribute to the recovery effort, and reduce the prevalence of PTSD amongst pupils in the wake of a natural disaster.

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Media organizations are simultaneously key elements of an effective democracy and, for the most part, commercial entities seeking success in the market. They play an essential role in the formation of public opinion and the influence on personal choices. Yet most of them are commercial enterprises seeking readers or viewers, advertising, favorable regulatory decisions for their media, and other assets. This creates some intrinsic difficulties and produces some sharp tensions within media ethics. In this article, we examine such tensions—in theory and practice. We then consider the feasibility of introducing an ethics regime to the media industry—a regime that would be effective in a deregulated environment in protecting public interest and social responsibility. In the article, we also outline a rationale and a methodology for the institutionalization of an acceptable and workable media ethics regime that aims to protect the integrity of the industry in a future of undoubtedly increasing commercial pressure.

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Introduction The purpose of this study was to develop, implement and evaluate the impact of an educational intervention, comprising an innovative model of clinical decisionmaking and educational delivery strategy for facilitating nursing students‘ learning and development of competence in paediatric physical assessment practices. Background of the study Nursing students have an undergraduate education that aims to produce graduates of a generalist nature who demonstrate entry level competence for providing nursing care in a variety of health settings. Consistent with population morbidity and health care roles, paediatric nursing concepts typically form a comparatively small part of undergraduate curricula and students‘ exposure to paediatric physical assessment concepts and principles are brief. However, the nursing shortage has changed traditional nursing employment patterns and new graduates form the majority of the recruitment pool for paediatric nursing speciality staff. Paediatric nursing is a popular career choice for graduates and anecdotal evidence suggests that nursing students who select a clinical placement in their final year intend to seek employment in paediatrics upon graduation. Although concepts of paediatric nursing are included within undergraduate curriculum, students‘ ability to develop the required habits of mind to practice in what is still regarded as a speciality area of practice is somewhat limited. One of the areas of practice where this particularly impacts is in paediatric nursing physical assessment. Physical assessment is a fundamental component of nursing practice and competence in this area of practice is central to nursing students‘ development of clinical capability for practice as a registered nurse. Timely recognition of physiologic deterioration of patients is a key outcome of nurses‘ competent use of physical assessment strategies, regardless of the practice context. In paediatric nursing contexts children‘s physical assessment practices must specifically accommodate the child‘s different physiological composition, function and pattern of clinical deterioration (Hockenberry & Barrera, 2007). Thus, to effectively manage physical assessment of patients within the paediatric practice setting nursing students need to integrate paediatric nursing theory into their practice. This requires significant information processing and it is in this process where students are frequently challenged. The provision of rules or models can guide practice and assist novice-level nurses to develop their capabilities (Benner, 1984; Benner, Hooper-Kyriakidis & Stannard, 1999). Nursing practice models are cognitive tools that represent simplified patterns of expert analysis employing concepts that suit the limited reasoning of the inexperienced, and can represent the =rules‘ referred to by Benner (1984). Without a practice model of physical assessment students are likely to be uncertain about how to proceed with data collection, the interpretation of paediatric clinical findings and the appraisal of findings. These circumstances can result in ad hoc and unreliable nursing physical assessment that forms a poor basis for nursing decisions. The educational intervention developed as part of this study sought to resolve this problem and support nursing students‘ development of competence in paediatric physical assessment. Methods This study utilised the Context Input Process Product (CIPP) Model by Stufflebeam (2004) as the theoretical framework that underpinned the research design and evaluation methodology. Each of the four elements in the CIPP model were utilised to guide discrete stages of this study. The Context element informed design of the clinical decision-making process, the Paediatric Nursing Physical Assessment model. The Input element was utilised in appraising relevant literature, identifying an appropriate instructional methodology to facilitate learning and educational intervention delivery to undergraduate nursing students, and development of program content (the CD-ROM kit). Study One employed the Process element and used expert panel approaches to review and refine instructional methods, identifying potential barriers to obtaining an effective evaluation outcome. The Product element guided design and implementation of Study Two, which was conducted in two phases. Phase One employed a quasiexperimental between-subjects methodology to evaluate the impact of the educational intervention on nursing students‘ clinical performance and selfappraisal of practices in paediatric physical assessment. Phase Two employed a thematic analysis and explored the experiences and perspectives of a sample subgroup of nursing students who used the PNPA CD-ROM kit as preparation for paediatric clinical placement. Results Results from the Process review in Study One indicated that the prototype CDROM kit containing the PNPA model met the predetermined benchmarks for face validity and the impact evaluation instrumentation had adequate content validity in comparison with predetermined benchmarks. In the first phase of Study Two the educational intervention did not result in statistically significant differences in measures of student performance or self-appraisal of practice. However, in Phase Two qualitative commentary from students, and from the expert panel who reviewed the prototype CD-ROM kit (Study One, Phase One), strongly endorsed the quality of the intervention and its potential for supporting learning. This raises questions regarding transfer of learning and it is likely that, within this study, several factors have influenced students‘ transfer of learning from the educational intervention to the clinical practice environment, where outcomes were measured. Conclusion In summary, the educational intervention employed in this study provides insights into the potential e-learning approaches offer for delivering authentic learning experiences to undergraduate nursing students. Findings in this study raise important questions regarding possible pedagogical influences on learning outcomes, issues within the transfer of theory to practice and factors that may have influenced findings within the context of this study. This study makes a unique contribution to nursing education, specifically with respect to progressing an understanding of the challenges faced in employing instructive methods to impact upon nursing students‘ development of competence. The important contribution transfer of learning processes make to students‘ transition into the professional practice context and to their development of competence within the context of speciality practice is also highlighted. This study contributes to a greater awareness of the complexity of translating theoretical learning at undergraduate level into clinical practice, particularly within speciality contexts.

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"This book focuses on issues in literacy and technology at the K-12 level in a holistic manner so that the needs of teachers and researchers can be addressed through the use of state-of-the-art perspectives"

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The international focus on embracing daylighting for energy efficient lighting purposes and the corporate sector’s indulgence in the perception of workplace and work practice “transparency” has spurned an increase in highly glazed commercial buildings. This in turn has renewed issues of visual comfort and daylight-derived glare for occupants. In order to ascertain evidence, or predict risk, of these events; appraisals of these complex visual environments require detailed information on the luminances present in an occupant’s field of view. Conventional luminance meters are an expensive and time consuming method of achieving these results. To create a luminance map of an occupant’s visual field using such a meter requires too many individual measurements to be a practical measurement technique. The application of digital cameras as luminance measurement devices has solved this problem. With high dynamic range imaging, a single digital image can be created to provide luminances on a pixel-by-pixel level within the broad field of view afforded by a fish-eye lens: virtually replicating an occupant’s visual field and providing rapid yet detailed luminance information for the entire scene. With proper calibration, relatively inexpensive digital cameras can be successfully applied to the task of luminance measurements, placing them in the realm of tools that any lighting professional should own. This paper discusses how a digital camera can become a luminance measurement device and then presents an analysis of results obtained from post occupancy measurements from building assessments conducted by the Mobile Architecture Built Environment Laboratory (MABEL) project. This discussion leads to the important realisation that the placement of such tools in the hands of lighting professionals internationally will provide new opportunities for the lighting community in terms of research on critical issues in lighting such as daylight glare and visual quality and comfort.

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Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

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Aims & Rationale/Objectives: With the knowledge that overweight is a major public health concern in Australia, that a multidisciplinary team approach to the management of lifestyle-related conditions is supported, and that the Australian Government recently recognised the role of the exercise physiologist (EP) in reducing the health burden of disease by their inclusion for reimbursement under the Medicare Plus scheme, this study sought to undertake a pilot RCT to compare GP and EP interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population. Methods and Measures: Overweight patients recruited by a convenience sample of GPs were randomised into one of three arms: the control group, or the GP or EP intervention group (in which patients received either five GP or five EP consultations over 24 weeks). Patients had baseline, 12- and 24-week measures of body composition and cardio-respiratory fitness, and completed baseline and end-of-study surveys, fasting lipids and glucose. GPs and EPs completed an end-of-study survey. Results:Sixty-seven patients attended the baseline assessment. Overall retention rate was 67%. Patients were generally satisfied with the effectiveness of the interventions and their weight reduction. Favourable trends in BMI, weight, glucose and exercise levels for GP and EP intervention groups and in physical activity levels for all groups Conclusions: This study supports the feasibility of a RCT of GP and EP interventions for decreasing primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population.

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A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

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Rodenticide use in agriculture can lead to the secondary poisoning of avian predators. Currently the Australian sugarcane industry has two rodenticides, Racumin® and Rattoff®, available for in-crop use but, like many agricultural industries, it lacks an ecologically-based method of determining the potential secondary poisoning risk the use of these rodenticides poses to avian predators. The material presented in this thesis addresses this by: a. determining where predator/prey interactions take place in sugar producing districts; b. quantifying the amount of rodenticide available to avian predators and the probability of encounter; and c. developing a stochastic model that allows secondary poisoning risk under various rodenticide application scenarios to be investigated. Results demonstrate that predator/prey interactions are highly constrained by environmental structure. Rodents used crops that provided high levels of canopy cover and therefore predator protection and poorly utilised open canopy areas. In contrast, raptors over-utilised areas with low canopy cover and low rodent densities, but which provided high accessibility to prey. Given this pattern of habitat use, and that industry baiting protocols preclude rodenticide application in open canopy crops, these results indicate that secondary poisoning can only occur if poisoned rodents leave closed canopy crops and become available for predation in open canopy areas. Results further demonstrate that after in-crop rodenticide application, only a small proportion of rodents available in open areas are poisoned and that these rodents carry low levels of toxicant. Coupled with the low level of rodenticide use in the sugar industry, the high toxic threshold raptors have to these toxicants and the low probability of encountering poisoned rodents, results indicate that the risk of secondary poisoning events occurring is minimal. A stochastic model was developed to investigate the effect of manipulating factors that might influence secondary poisoning hazard in a sugarcane agro-ecosystem. These simulations further suggest that in all but extreme scenarios, the risk of secondary poisoning is also minimal. Collectively, these studies demonstrate that secondary poisoning of avian predators associated with the use of the currently available rodenticides in Australian sugar producing districts is minimal. Further, the ecologically-based method of assessing secondary poisoning risk developed in this thesis has broader applications in other agricultural systems where rodenticide use may pose risks to avian predators.

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Adolescents experience many benefits from bicycling; however, there are also potentially significant injury consequences. One effective counter-measure for the prevention of adolescent bicycling injuries is to promote bicycle helmet wearing. An overview is provided of injury risks of bicycle riding with particular attention to the role of helmet wearing and associated countermeasures such as legislation and school and community approaches. The findings are presented of a study conducted in Australia that examined the effectiveness of a theory-based injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) for ninth-grade students (age 13 to 14 years). The findings showed a significant, 20.2% decrease in cycling without a helmet among the intervention students (n = 360) and no change for the students in the comparison group (n = 363) after 6 months. In addition, it was found that failing to wear a helmet was significantly associated with engaging in other transport-related risks, being male, having friends who do not wear a helmet and are specific targets of change in the SPIY program, showing a negative attitude toward risk, failing to intervene in friends' risk-taking, and having low knowledge of first aid. Overall, the SPIY program appeared to be an effective theory-based intervention to increase helmet wearing among early adolescents, a group not often targeted in school and community helmet-wearing programs.

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Most online assessment systems now incorporate social networking features, and recent developments in social media spaces include protocols that allow the synchronisation and aggregation of data across multiple user profiles. In light of these advances and the concomitant fear of data sharing in secondary school education this papers provides important research findings about generic features of online social networking, which educators can use to make sound and efficient assessments in collaboration with their students and colleagues. This paper reports on a design experiment in flexible educational settings that challenges the dichotomous legacy of success and failure evident in many assessment activities for at-risk youth. Combining social networking practices with the sociology of education the paper proposes that assessment activities are best understood as a negotiable field of exchange. In this design experiment students, peers and educators engage in explicit, "front-end" assessment (Wyatt-Smith, 2008) to translate digital artefacts into institutional, and potentiality economic capital without continually referring to paper based pre-set criteria. This approach invites students and educators to use social networking functions to assess “work in progress” and final submissions in collaboration, and in doing so assessors refine their evaluative expertise and negotiate the value of student’s work from which new criteria can emerge. The mobile advantages of web-based technologies aggregate, externalise and democratise this transparent assessment model for most, if not all, student work that can be digitally represented.

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The following paper presents an evaluation of airborne sensors for use in vegetation management in powerline corridors. Three integral stages in the management process are addressed including, the detection of trees, relative positioning with respect to the nearest powerline and vegetation height estimation. Image data, including multi-spectral and high resolution, are analyzed along with LiDAR data captured from fixed wing aircraft. Ground truth data is then used to establish the accuracy and reliability of each sensor thus providing a quantitative comparison of sensor options. Tree detection was achieved through crown delineation using a Pulse-Coupled Neural Network (PCNN) and morphologic reconstruction applied to multi-spectral imagery. Through testing it was shown to achieve a detection rate of 96%, while the accuracy in segmenting groups of trees and single trees correctly was shown to be 75%. Relative positioning using LiDAR achieved a RMSE of 1.4m and 2.1m for cross track distance and along track position respectively, while Direct Georeferencing achieved RMSE of 3.1m in both instances. The estimation of pole and tree heights measured with LiDAR had a RMSE of 0.4m and 0.9m respectively, while Stereo Matching achieved 1.5m and 2.9m. Overall a small number of poles were missed with detection rates of 98% and 95% for LiDAR and Stereo Matching.

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Aim. This paper is a report of a study conducted to explore the impact of preidentified contextual themes (related to work environment and socialization) on nursing medication practice. Background. Medication administration is a complex aspect of paediatric nursing and an important component of day-to-day nursing practice. Many attempts are being made to improve patient safety, but many errors remain. Identifying and understanding factors that influence medication administration errors are of utmost importance. Method. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 278 paediatric nurses from the emergency department, intensive care unit and medical and surgical wards of an Australian tertiary paediatric hospital in 2004. The response rate was 67%. Result. Contextual influences were important in determining how closely medication policy was followed. Completed questionnaires were returned by 185 nurses (67%). Younger nurses aged <34 years thought that their medication administration practice could be influenced by the person with whom they checked the drugs (P = 0·001), and that there were daily circumstances when it was acceptable not to adhere strictly to medication policy (P < 0·001), including choosing between following policy and acting in the best interests of the child (P = 0·002). Senior nurses agreed that senior staff dictate acceptable levels of medication policy adherence through role modelling (P = 0·01). Less experienced nurses reported greater confidence with computer literacy (P < 0·001). Conclusions. Organizations need to employ multidisciplinary education programmes to promote universal understanding of, and adherence to, medication policies. Skill mix should be closely monitored to ensure adequate support for new and junior staff.

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Purpose: To evaluate the psychometric properties of a Chinese version of the Diabetes Coping Measure (DCM-C) scale.----- Methods: A self-administered questionnaire was completed by 205 people with type 2 diabetes from the endocrine outpatient departments of three hospitals in Taiwan. Confirmatory factor analysis, criterion validity, and internal consistency reliability were conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of the DCM-C.----- Findings: Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a four-factor structure (χ2 /df ratio=1.351, GFI=.904, CFI=.902, RMSEA=.041). The DCM-C was significantly associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviors. Internal consistency reliability of the total DCM-C scale was .74. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for each subscale of the DCM-C ranged from .37 (tackling spirit) to .66 (diabetes integration).----- Conclusions: The DCM-C demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity to determine the use of diabetes coping strategies. The tackling spirit dimension needs further refinement when applies this scale to Chinese populations with diabetes.----- Clinical Relevance: Healthcare providers who deal with Chinese people with diabetes can use the DCM-C to implement an early determination of diabetes coping strategies.