800 resultados para Risk and uncertainty


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Background and purpose: To compare external beam radiotherapy techniques for parotid gland tumours using conventional radiotherapy (RT), three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). To optimise the IMRT techniques, and to produce an IMRT class solution.Materials and methods: The planning target volume (PTV), contra-lateral parotid gland, oral cavity, brain-stem, brain and cochlea were outlined on CT planning scans of six patients with parotid gland tumours. Optimised conventional RT and 3DCRT plans were created and compared with inverse-planned IMRT dose distributions using dose-volume histograms. The aim was to reduce the radiation dose to organs at risk and improve the PTV dose distribution. A beam-direction optimisation algorithm was used to improve the dose distribution of the IMRT plans, and a class solution for parotid gland IMRT was investigated.Results: 3DCRT plans produced an equivalent PTV irradiation and reduced the dose to the cochlea, oral cavity, brain, and other normal tissues compared with conventional RT. IMRT further reduced the radiation dose to the cochlea and oral cavity compared with 3DCRT. For nine- and seven-field IMRT techniques, there was an increase in low-dose radiation to non-target tissue and the contra-lateral parotid gland. IMRT plans produced using three to five optimised intensity-modulated beam directions maintained the advantages of the more complex IMRT plans, and reduced the contra-lateral parotid gland dose to acceptable levels. Three- and four-field non-coplanar beam arrangements increased the volume of brain irradiated, and increased PTV dose inhomogeneity. A four-field class solution consisting of paired ipsilateral coplanar anterior and posterior oblique beams (15, 45, 145 and 170o from the anterior plane) was developed which maintained the benefits without the complexity of individual patient optimisation.Conclusions: For patients with parotid gland tumours, reduction in the radiation dose to critical normal tissues was demonstrated with 3DCRT compared with conventional RT. IMRT produced a further reduction in the dose to the cochlea and oral cavity. With nine and seven fields, the dose to the contra-lateral parotid gland was increased, but this was avoided by optimisation of the beam directions. The benefits of IMRT were maintained with three or four fields when the beam angles were optimised, but were also achieved using a four-field class solution. Clinical trials are required to confirm the clinical benefits of these improved dose distributions.

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Previous research has demonstrated that students’ cognitions about statistics are related to their performance in statistics assessments. The purpose of this research is to examine the nature of the relationships between undergraduate psychology students’ previous experiences of maths, statistics and computing; their attitudes toward statistics; and assessment on a statistics course. Of the variables examined, the strongest predictor of assessment outcome was students’ attitude about their intellectual knowledge and skills in relation to statistics at the end of the statistics curriculum. This attitude was related to students’ perceptions of their maths ability at the beginning of the statistics curriculum. Interventions could be designed to change such attitudes with the aim of improving students’ learning of statistics.

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Introduction: Centenarians are reservoirs of genetic and environmental information to successful ageing and local centenarian groups may help us to understand some of the factors that contribute to longevity. The current centenarian cohort in Belfast survived the 1970s epidemic of death from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland, where cardiovascular mortality was almost highest in the world. These centenarians provided an opportunity to assess biological and genetic factors important in cardiovascular risk and ageing. Methods: Thirty-five (27 female, 8 male) centenarians, participants of the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Ageing STudy (BELFAST), were community-living and of good cognition at enrolment. Results: Centenarians showed median Body Mass Index (BMI) at 25.7, systolic blood pressure 140mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 90mmHg, and fasting glucose of 5.54 mmol/l with no sex-related difference. Lipoproteins showed median cholesterol 5.3, High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) 1.10 and Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) 3.47umol/l respectively. Centenarian smokers showed no different blood pressure or lipid measurements compared with non-smokers. Malondialdehyde, a measure of lipid peroxidation, was low at 1.19 umol/l, and measures of antioxidant status were varied. Male centenarians did not carry any of the vascular risk genotypes studied-ApoE4 for Apolipoprotein E (ApoE), DD for Angiotensinogen Converting Enzyme (ACE) and tt for 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTFHR), though this was not true for female centenarians.. Conclusions: This small local study shows that Belfast centenarians carry a reasonably favourable risk profile, except for age, with respect to cardiovascular disease. There is also some evidence that vascular risk factors and genotypes may be tolerated differently between the male and female centenarians. Maintaining a favourable cardiovascular risk profile seems likely to improve the chance of becoming a centenarian, especially for males.

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Around 80% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients achieve a complete remission, however many will relapse and ultimately die of their disease. The association between karyotype and prognosis has been studied extensively and identified patient cohorts as having favourable [e.g. t(8; 21), inv (16)/t(16; 16), t(15; 17)], intermediate [e.g. cytogenetically normal (NK-AML)] or adverse risk [e.g. complex karyotypes]. Previous studies have shown that gene expression profiling signatures can classify the sub-types of AML, although few reports have shown a similar feature by using methylation markers. The global methylation patterns in 19 diagnostic AML samples were investigated using the Methylated CpG Island Amplification Microarray (MCAM) method and CpG island microarrays containing 12,000 CpG sites. The first analysis, comparing favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups, revealed significantly differentially methylated CpG sites (594 CpG islands) between the two subgroups. Mutations in the NPM1 gene occur at a high frequency (40%) within the NK-AML subgroup and are associated with a more favourable prognosis in these patients. A second analysis comparing the NPM1 mutant and wild-type research study subjects again identified distinct methylation profiles between these two subgroups. Network and pathway analysis revealed possible molecular mechanisms associated with the different risk and/or mutation sub-groups. This may result in a better classification of the risk groups, improved monitoring targets, or the identification of novel molecular therapies.

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We consider two different approaches to describe the formation of social networks under mutual consent and costly communication. First, we consider a network-based approach; in particular Jackson–Wolinsky’s concept of pairwise stability. Next, we discuss a non-cooperative game-theoretic approach, through a refinement of the Nash equilibria of Myerson’s consent game. This refinement, denoted as monadic stability, describes myopically forward looking behavior of the players. We show through an equivalence that the class of monadically stable networks is a strict subset of the class of pairwise stable networks that can be characterized fully by modifications of the properties defining pairwise stability.

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Succinate dehydrogenase B (SDHB) and D (SDHD) subunit gene mutations predispose to adrenal and extraadrenal pheochromocytomas, head and neck paragangliomas (HNPGL), and other tumor types. We report tumor risks in 358 patients with SDHB (n = 295) and SDHD (n = 63) mutations. Risks of HNPGL and pheochromocytoma in SDHB mutation carriers were 29% and 52%, respectively, at age 60 years and 71% and 29%, respectively, in SDHD mutation carriers. Risks of malignant pheochromocytoma and renal tumors (14% at age 70 years) were higher in SDHB mutation carriers; 55 different mutations (including a novel recurrent exon 1 deletion) were identified. No clear genotype-phenotype correlations were detected for SDHB mutations. However, SDHD mutations predicted to result in loss of expression or a truncated or unstable protein were associated with a significantly increased risk of pheochromocytoma compared to missense mutations that were not predicted to impair protein stability (most such cases had the common p.Pro81Leu mutation). Analysis of the largest cohort of SDHB/D mutation carriers has enhanced estimates of penetrance and tumor risk and supports in silicon protein structure prediction analysis for functional assessment of mutations. The differing effect of the SDHD p.Pro81Leu on HNPGL and pheochromocytoma, risks suggests differing mechanisms of tumorigenesis in SDH-associated HNPGL and pheochromocytoma. Hum Mutat 31:41-51, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Objective: Genetic testing and colonoscopy is recommended for people with a strong history of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, families must communicate so that all members are aware of the risk. The study aimed to explore the factors influencing family communication about genetic risk and colonoscopy among people with a strong family history of CRC who attended a genetic clinic with a view to having a genetic test for hereditary non-polyposis colon cancer (HNPCC).

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Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common cause of blindness in older people in developed countries, and risk for this condition may be classified as genetic or environmental, with an interaction between such factors predisposing to this disease. This study investigated the relationship between AMD risk genes, macular pigment optical density (MPOD), which may protect against AMD, and serum concentrations of the macular carotenoids, lutein (L) and zeaxanthin (Z). This was a cross-sectional study of 302 healthy adult subjects. Dietary intake of L and Z was assessed by food frequency questionnaire, and MPOD was measured by customized heterochromatic flicker photometry. We also calculated MPOD Area as the area of MP under the spatial profile curve, to reflect MP across the macula. Serum L and Z were measured by HPLC. Genotyping of tag SNPs in the genes CFH, ARMS2, C3, C2 and BF was undertaken with multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and primer extension methodology (ABI Snapshot, ABI Warrington UK) on DNA extracted from peripheral blood. The mean ± SD (range) age of the subjects in this study was 48 ± 11 (21-66) years. There was a statistically significant association between CFH genotype and family history of AMD, with subjects having two non-risk CFH haplotypes (n =35), or one non-risk and one protective CFH haplotype (n = 33), being significantly more likely to have a negative family history of AMD (Pearson Chi square: p = 0.001). There was no significant association between the AMD risk genes investigated and either MPOD (One way ANOVA: p > 0.05) or serum concentrations of L or Z (One way ANOVA: p > 0.05, for both). Subjects who were homozygous for risk alleles of both CFH and ARMS2 (n = 4) had significantly lower MPOD at 0.5_ and 1_ retinal eccentricity (Independent samples t test: p

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In this paper we examine the properties of stable coalitions under sequential and simultaneous bargaining by competing labor unions. We do this using the Nash bargaining solution and various notions of stability, namely, Nash, coalitional, contractual and core stability. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

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Individuals subtly reminded of death, coalitional challenges, or feelings of uncertainty display exaggerated preferences for affirmations and against criticisms of their cultural in-groups. Terror management, coalitional psychology, and uncertainty management theories postulate this “worldview defense” effectas the output of mechanisms evolved either to allay the fear of death, foster social support, or reduce anxiety by increasing adherence to cultural values. In 4 studies, we report evidence for an alternative perspective. We argue that worldview defense owes to unconscious vigilance, a state of accentuatedreactivity to affective targets (which need not relate to cultural worldviews) that follows detection of subtle alarm cues (which need not pertain to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertainty). In Studies 1 and 2, death-primed participants produced exaggerated ratings of worldview-neutral affective targets. In Studies 3 and 4, subliminal threat manipulations unrelated to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertaintyevoked worldview defense. These results are discussed as they inform evolutionary interpretations of worldview defense and future investigations of the influence of unconscious alarm on judgment.

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Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Purpose: Current prognostic factors are poor at identifying patients at risk of disease recurrence after surgery for stage II colon cancer. Here we describe a DNA microarray-based prognostic assay using clinically relevant formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Patients and Methods: A gene signature was developed from a balanced set of 73 patients with recurrent disease (high risk) and 142 patients with no recurrence (low risk) within 5 years of surgery. Results: The 634-probe set signature identified high-risk patients with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.62 (P <.001) during cross validation of the training set. In an independent validation set of 144 samples, the signature identified high-risk patients with an HR of 2.53 (P <.001) for recurrence and an HR of 2.21 (P = .0084) for cancer-related death. Additionally, the signature was shown to perform independently from known prognostic factors (P <.001). Conclusion: This gene signature represents a novel prognostic biomarker for patients with stage II colon cancer that can be applied to FFPE tumor samples. © 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.