Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

IPH response to Health and Social Care Board and Public Health Agency Community Development Strategy

The Health and Social Care Board (HSCB) and the Public Health Agency (PHA) launched a new Community Development Strategy for public consultation.  The HSCB and PHA want to see strong, resilient communities where everyone has good health and wellbeing, places where people look out for each other and have community pride in where they live. The HSCB and PHA seek a number of benefits from implementing this strategy including; a reduction in health and wellbeing inequalities, which also means addressing the social factors that affect health; strengthening partnership working with service users, the community and voluntary sectors and other organisations; strengthening families and communities; supporting volunteering and making best use of our resources. Key points from the IPH summary include IPH welcome the Community Development Strategy as an approach to enhance health and wellbeing and tackle health inequalities in Northern Ireland.   IPH recommend the current three strategy documents (Full and summary versions and the Performance Management Framework) are merged into one document for greater clarity. Reference to the Performance Management Framework is required in the main body of the text is to ensure good practice is implemented. IPH welcome the focus on tackling health inequalities using community development approaches however the contribution of community development approaches needs to be highlighted. HIA is a tool to support community engagement and provides a mechanism for HSCB and PHA to support the implementation of this strategy.

Etiology of first-ever ischaemic stroke in European young adults: the 15 cities young stroke study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for IS in young adults differ between genders and evolve with age, but data on the age- and gender-specific differences by stroke etiology are scare. These features were compared based on individual patient data from 15 European stroke centers. METHODS: Stroke etiology was reported in detail for 3331 patients aged 15-49 years with first-ever IS according to Trial of Org in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria: large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), cardioembolism (CE), small-vessel occlusion (SVO), other determined etiology, or undetermined etiology. CE was categorized into low- and high-risk sources. Other determined group was divided into dissection and other non-dissection causes. Comparisons were done using logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender, and center heterogeneity. RESULTS: Etiology remained undetermined in 39.6%. Other determined etiology was found in 21.6%, CE in 17.3%, SVO in 12.2%, and LAA in 9.3%. Other determined etiology was more common in females and younger patients, with cervical artery dissection being the single most common etiology (12.8%). CE was more common in younger patients. Within CE, the most frequent high-risk sources were atrial fibrillation/flutter (15.1%) and cardiomyopathy (11.5%). LAA, high-risk sources of CE, and SVO were more common in males. LAA and SVO showed an increasing frequency with age. No significant etiologic distribution differences were found amongst southern, central, or northern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The etiology of IS in young adults has clear gender-specific patterns that change with age. A notable portion of these patients remains without an evident stroke mechanism according to TOAST criteria.

Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth did emerge in London a decade later than first reported for New York. The question is whether there was simply a delay before London conformed to the global city model, or whether another distinct cause was at work in both cases. This paper proposes that the critical factor in both cases was actually an upsurge of immigration from poor countries providing an elastic supply of cheap labour. This hypothesis and its counterpart based on growth in elite jobs are tested econometrically for the British case with regional data spanning 1975-2008, finding some support for both effects, but with immigration from poor countries as the crucial influence in late 1990s London. Keywords: regional labour markets; wages; employment; international migration; consumer demand JEL Codes: J21, J23, F22, R12

What underlies localization and urbanization economies? Evidence from the location of new firms

The objective of this paper is to analyze why firms in some industries locate in specialized economic environments (localization economies) while those in other industries prefer large city locations (urbanization economies). To this end, we examine the location decisions of new manufacturing firms in Spain at the city level and for narrowly defined industries (three-digit level). First, we estimate firm location models to obtain estimates that reflect the importance of localization and urbanization economies in each industry. In a second step, we regress these estimates on industry characteristics that are related to the potential importance of three agglomeration theories, namely, labor market pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillovers. Localization effects are low and urbanization effects are high in knowledge-intensive industries, suggesting that firms (partly) locate in large cities to reap the benefits of inter-industry knowledge spillovers. We also find that localization effects are high in industries that employ workers whose skills are more industry-specific, suggesting that industries (partly) locate in specialized economic environments to share a common pool of specialized workers.

Oviposition activity and seasonal pattern of a population of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) in subtropical Argentina

Monthly oviposition activity and the seasonal density pattern of Aedes aegypti were studied using larvitraps and ovitraps during a research carried out by the Public Health Ministry of Salta Province, in Tartagal, Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, in subtropical Argentina. The A. aegypti population was active in both dry and wet seasons with a peak in March, accordant with the heaviest rainfall. From May to November, the immature population level remained low, but increased in December. Ae. aegypti oviposition activity increased during the fall and summer, when the relative humidity was 60% or higher. Eggs were found in large numbers of ovitraps during all seasons but few eggs were observed in each one during winter. The occurrence and the number of eggs laid were variable when both seasons and cities were compared. The reduction of the population during the winter months was related to the low in the relative humidity of the atmosphere. Significant differences were detected between oviposition occurrences in Tartagal and Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, but no differences in the number of eggs were observed. Two factors characterize the seasonal distribution pattern of Ae. aegypti in subtropical Argentina, the absence of a break during winter and an oviposition activity concomitant of the high relative humidity of the atmosphere.

'Active Travel' Maps: Derry/Londonderry, Enniskillen, Limavady, Omagh and Strabane

New 'Active Travel' Maps, funded by the Public Health Agency, for the cities and towns of Derry/ Londonderry, Enniskillen, Limavady, Omagh and Strabane have been launched to encourage local people and visitors to build physical activity into their day by walking, cycling, jogging, or using public transport.The Active Maps aim to promote health and wellbeing across the five district councils in the West and contain information on local cycle, walk and bus routes as well as useful contacts such as local cycle hire and sales outlets and walking groups, for example.

Application of PCR ribotyping and tDNA-PCR for Klebsiella pneumoniae identification

PCR analysis of 16S-23S internal transcribed spacer (PCR ribotyping) and tRNA intergenic spacer (tDNA-PCR) were evaluated for their effectiveness in identification of clinical strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae and differentiation with related species. For this purpose both methods were applied to forty-three clinical isolates biochemically identified as K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae isolated from patients clinical specimens attended at five hospitals in three Brazilian cities. References strains of K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae, K. pneumoniae subsp. ozaenae, K. oxytoca, K. planticola and Enterobacter aerogenes were also analyzed. Both PCR methods showed specific patterns for each species. A conserved PCR ribotype pattern was observed for all clinical K. pneumoniae isolates, while differing from other related analyzed species. tDNA-PCR revealed five distinct patterns among the K. pneumoniae clinical isolates studied, demonstrating a predominant group with 90,6% of isolates presenting the same pattern of K. pneumoniae type strain. Both PCR-based methods were not able to differentiate K. pneumoniae subspecies. On the basis of the results obtained, both methods were efficient to differentiate the Klebsiella species analyzed, as well as E. aerogenes. Meanwhile tDNA-PCR revealed different tRNA arrangements in K. pneumoniae, suggesting intra-species heterogeneity of their genome organization, the polymorphism of the intergenic spacers between 16S and 23S rRNA genes appears to be highly conserved whithin K. pneumoniae clinical isolates, showing that PCR ribotyping can be an useful tool for identification of K. pneumoniae isolates.

The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil

By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r² = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection.

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.

Seroprevalence of HBV, HCV and HIV co-infection in selected individuals from state of São Paulo, Brazil

Few studies are available on hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection in populations living in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities. We evaluated the seroprevalence of these viruses in selected individuals from a clinic of infectology, who were referred to the University Regional Hospital of the West Region of state of São Paulo, Brazil. Among a total of 7,021 individuals seen in the clinic following receipt of preliminary ELISA results or having the suggested clinical signs of viral hepatitis or HIV, 1,228 were systematically screened. Isolated or associated HBsAg, HCV and HIV antibodies were found in 44.9% of the subjects. Anti-HIV antibodies were found in 24.7% of the patients, 20.3% of whom had an HIV monoinfection and 4.4% of whom were co-infected with hepatitis viruses (HCV: 4%; HBV: 0.4%). Anti-HCV antibodies were found in 14% of the patients and 5.9% had anti-HBsAg antibodies. HCV infection affected males more than females (p < 0.05) and individuals > 50-years old had an increased prevalence of anti-HCV compared to HIV (p = 0.0001) or HBV (p = 0.0063). HCV-RNA was detected in 73.5% of the samples with a predominance of genotype 1 (72.5%). A significant percentage (44.9%) of the selected individuals was positive for antibodies against HBV, HCV and/or HIV; these patients would otherwise have remained undiagnosed.

The Estrada Real project and endemic diseases: the case of schistosomiasis, geoprocessing and tourism

Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R² = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.

The molecular detection of different Leishmania species within sand flies from a cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis sympatric area in Southeastern Brazil

Over the last 20 years, there has been an increase in the number of leishmaniasis cases in Brazil. Belo Horizonte (BH) is one of the most highly populated Brazilian cities that is affected by visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The health services in BH are coordinated by a central nucleus that is subdivided into nine sanitary districts. Historically, the highest level of human VL cases was found in the northeast sanitary district (NSD). The objective of our study was to detect Leishmania infection in the phlebotomine sand flies collected in the NSD by dissection and molecular approaches. Following the occurrence of human VL cases in 2005, entomological captures were performed from July 2006-June 2007. Out of the 245 sand flies dissected, only three Lutzomyia longipalpis spp contained flagellates. The female sand flies were grouped into 120 pools according to date, collection site and species, with approximately 10 individual sand flies in each pool. Subsquently, the DNA was extracted and Leishmania spp and other parasites were detected and identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR-restriction fragment length polymorfism. Leishmania infantum was present in at least 19% of the Lu. longipalpis collected, in 3.8% of the Nyssomiya whitmani collected, in 33.3% of the Evandromiya termitophila collected and in 14.3% of the Nyssomiya intermedia collected. When the females of the cortelezzii complex were compared with each other, 3.2% of the females were infected with Leishmania braziliensis, whereas 3.2% of the females were infected with trypanosomatids.

Detection of human bocavirus and human metapneumovirus by real-time PCR from patients with respiratory symptoms in Southern Brazil

The introduction of newer molecular methods has led to the discovery of new respiratory viruses, such as human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human bocavirus (hBoV), in respiratory tract specimens. We have studied the occurrence of hMPV and hBoV in the Porto Alegre (PA) metropolitan area, one of the southernmost cities of Brazil, evaluating children with suspected lower respiratory tract infection from May 2007-June 2008. A real-time polymerase chain reaction method was used for amplification and detection of hMPV and hBoV and to evaluate coinfections with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza 1, 2 and 3, human rhinovirus and human adenovirus. Of the 455 nasopharyngeal aspirates tested, hMPV was detected in 14.5% of samples and hBoV in 13.2%. A unique causative viral agent was identified in 46.2% samples and the coinfection rate was 43.7%. For hBoV, 98.3% of all positive samples were from patients with mixed infections. Similarly, 84.8% of all hMPV-positive results were also observed in mixed infections. Both hBoV and hMPV usually appeared with RSV. In summary, this is the first confirmation that hMPV and hBoV circulate in PA; this provides evidence of frequent involvement of both viruses in children with clinical signs of acute viral respiratory tract infection, although they mainly appeared as coinfection agents.