A Common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (labeled Yt and yt in this paper) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PV and PVM, respectively, hereafter) linking them. The work on cointegration has been so prevalent that it is often overlooked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. The basis of this result is the use of rational expectations in forecasting future values of variables in the PVM. If this condition fails, the present-value equation will not be valid, since it will contain an additional term capturing the (non-zero) conditional expected value of future error terms. Our article has a few novel contributions, but two stand out. First, in testing for PVMs, we advise to split the restrictions implied by PV relationships into orthogonality conditions (or reduced rank restrictions) before additional tests on the value of parameters. We show that PV relationships entail a weak-form common feature relationship as in Hecq, Palm, and Urbain (2006) and in Athanasopoulos, Guillén, Issler and Vahid (2011) and also a polynomial serial-correlation common feature relationship as in Cubadda and Hecq (2001), which represent restrictions on dynamic models which allow several tests for the existence of PV relationships to be used. Because these relationships occur mostly with nancial data, we propose tests based on generalized method of moment (GMM) estimates, where it is straightforward to propose robust tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity. We also propose a robust Wald test developed to investigate the presence of reduced rank models. Their performance is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo exercise. Second, in the context of asset pricing, we propose applying a permanent-transitory (PT) decomposition based on Beveridge and Nelson (1981), which focus on extracting the long-run component of asset prices, a key concept in modern nancial theory as discussed in Alvarez and Jermann (2005), Hansen and Scheinkman (2009), and Nieuwerburgh, Lustig, Verdelhan (2010). Here again we can exploit the results developed in the common cycle literature to easily extract permament and transitory components under both long and also short-run restrictions. The techniques discussed herein are applied to long span annual data on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. In both applications we do not reject the existence of a common cyclical feature vector linking these two series. Extracting the long-run component shows the usefulness of our approach and highlights the presence of asset-pricing bubbles.

The impact of daycare attendance on math test scores for a cohort of 4th graders in Brazil

We estimate the impact of having attended center-based daycare institutions during early childhood on Math test scores at the 4th grade of elementary school. Because enrollment in daycare centers may depend on unobservable character-istics of the family and the child, we build and estimate a structural model of endogeneous choice of school to deal with the selectivity problem. We nd that attendance to daycare institutions is associated with a gain of approximately 0,04 standard deviation in Math test scores. This result is important to the extent our OLS results as well as most of the studies for Brazil nd no e¤ect associated to daycare attendance, suggesting selectivity may play a role on this finding.

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of U.S.- based MNES in Brazil

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have been studied by several authors over the last decades but empirical results have been historically mixed. More recently, Hennart (2009) argued that the reason for the inconsistent results to date resided in the fact that prior theories assumed that local markets could be freely accessed based on a unilateral decision by the MNEs, and then proposes an alternative framework in which the entry and expansion modes of MNEs in foreign countries are a solution based on the relative efficiency of both markets. In this study, the proposed framework is tested against the prior theories based on investments made by U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The results suggest that the local market characteristics, more specifically the concentration ratio at the firm and asset levels, are indeed important to influence the entry and expansion mode of U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil, reinforcing the argument against MNEs-centric theories. However, differently from Hennart’s proposition, we were not able to confirm the hypotheses that the MNEs skills are relevant to influence the final solution. We have also tested whether the difference in growth rate between the two countries could be a driver for MNEs to favor acquisition over greenfield given the opportunity cost of postponing the investments. The test result, based on our sample, was not able to confirm this hypothesis.

The forward and the equity-premium puzzles: a straightforward test of whether they are two symptoms of the same illness

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

The influence of the supply chain agents on the new product development's performance: an analysis based on the multi-group moderation

Este estudo buscou verificar a influencia dos agentes da cadeia de suprimentos no desempenho do desenvolvimento de novos produtos quando os agentes são analisados em conjunto. A motivação desta pesquisa veio de estudos que alertaram para a consideração da integração da cadeia de suprimentos como um constructo multidimensional, englobando o envolvimento da manufatura, fornecedores e clientes no desenvolvimento de novos produtos; e devido à falta de informação sobre as influencias individuais destes agentes no desenvolvimento de novos produtos. Sob essas considerações, buscou-se construir um modelo analítico baseado na Teoria do Capital Social e Capacidade Absortiva, construir hipóteses a partir da revisão da literatura e conectar constructos como cooperação, envolvimento do fornecedor no desenvolvimento de novos produtos (DNP), envolvimento do cliente no DNP, envolvimento da manufatura no DNP, antecipação de novas tecnologias, melhoria contínua, desempenho operacional do DNP, desempenho de mercado do NPD e desempenho de negócio do DNP. Para testar as hipóteses foram consideradas três variáveis moderadoras, tais como turbulência ambiental (baixa, média e alta), indústria (eletrônicos, maquinários e equipamentos de transporte) e localização (América, Europa e Ásia). Para testar o modelo foram usados dados do projeto High Performance Manufacturing que contém 339 empresas das indústrias de eletrônicos, maquinários e equipamentos de transporte, localizadas em onze países. As hipóteses foram testadas por meio da Análise Fatorial Confirmatória (AFC) incluindo a moderação muti-grupo para as três variáveis moderadoras mencionadas anteriormente. Os principais resultados apontaram que as hipóteses relacionadas com cooperação foram confirmadas em ambientes de média turbulência, enquanto as hipóteses relacionadas ao desempenho no DNP foram confirmadas em ambientes de baixa turbulência ambiental e em países asiáticos. Adicionalmente, sob as mesmas condições, fornecedores, clientes e manufatura influenciam diferentemente no desempenho de novos produtos. Assim, o envolvimento de fornecedores influencia diretamente no desempenho operacional e indiretamente no desempenho de mercado e de negócio em baixos níveis de turbulência ambiental, na indústria de equipamentos de transporte em países da Americanos e Europeus. De igual forma, o envolvimento do cliente influenciou diretamente no desempenho operacional e indiretamente no desempenho de mercado e do negócio em médio nível de turbulência ambiental, na indústria de maquinários e em países Asiáticos. Fornecedores e clientes não influenciam diretamente no desempenho de mercado e do negócio e não influenciam indiretamente no desempenho operacional. O envolvimento da manufatura não influenciou nenhum tipo de desempenho do desenvolvimento de novos produtos em todos os cenários testados.

Pair trading in Bovespa with a quantitative approach: cointegration, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation and Kelly criterion.

Pair trading is an old and well-known technique among traders. In this paper, we discuss an important element not commonly debated in Brazil: the cointegration between pairs, which would guarantee the spread stability. We run the Dickey-Fuller test to check cointegration, and then compare the results with non-cointegrated pairs. We found that the Sharpe ratio of cointegrated pairs is greater than the non-cointegrated. We also use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation in order to calculate the half-life of the pairs. Again, this improves their performance. Last, we use the leverage suggested by Kelly Formula, once again improving the results.

A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Seven stories: location based story-delivery system

Location aware content-based experiences have a substantial tradition in HCI, several projects over the last two decades have explored the association of digital media to specific locations or objects. However, a large portion of the literature has little focus on the creative side of designing of the experience and on the iterative process of user evaluations. In this thesis we present two iterations in the design and evaluation of a location based story delivery system (LBSDS), inspired by local folklore and oral storytelling in Madeira. We started by testing an already existing location based story platform, PlaceWear, with short multimedia clips that recounted local traditions and folktales, to this experience we called iLand. An initial evaluation of iLand, was conducted; we shadowed users during the experience and then they responded to a questionnaire. By analyzing the evaluation results we uncovered several issues that informed the redesign of the system itself as well as part of the story content. The outcome of this re design was the 7Stories experience. In the new experience we performed the integration of visual markers in the interface and the framing of the fragmented story content through the literary technique of the narrator. This was done aiming to improving the connection of the audience to the physical context where the experience is delivered. The 7Stories experience was evaluated following a similar methodology to the iLand evaluation but the user’s experience resulted considerably different; because of the same setting for the experience in both versions and the constancy of the most of the content across the two versions we were able to assess the specific effect of the new design and discuss its strengths and shortcomings. Although we did not run a formal and strict comparative test between the two evaluations, it is evident from the collected data how the specific design changes to our LBSDS influenced the user experience.

Paradigms in health care and its relationship to the nursing theories: an analytical test

DANTAS, Rodrigo Assis Neves; NÓBREGA, Walkíria Gomes da; MORAIS FILHO, Luiz Alves; MACÊDO, Eurides Araújo Bezerra de ; FONSECA , Patrícia de Cássia Bezerra; ENDERS, Bertha Cruz; MENEZES, Rejane Maria Paiva de; TORRES , Gilson de Vasconcelos. Paradigms in health care and its relationship to the nursing theories: an analytical test . Revista de Enfermagem UFPE on line. v.4,n.2, p.16-24.abr/jun. 2010. Disponível em < http://www.ufpe.br/revistaenfermagem/index.php/revista>.

Diagnóstico ecotoxicológico dos efluentes lançados no complexo estuarino do Jundiaí/Potengi, Natal/RN

Untreated effluents that reach surface water affect the aquatic life and humans. This study aimed to evaluate the wastewater s toxicity (municipal, industrial and shrimp pond effluents) released in the Estuarine Complex of Jundiaí- Potengi, Natal/RN, through chronic quantitative e qualitative toxicity tests using the test organism Mysidopsis Juniae, CRUSTACEA, MYSIDACEA (Silva, 1979). For this, a new methodology for viewing chronic effects on organisms of M. juniae was used (only renewal), based on another existing methodology to another testorganism very similar to M. Juniae, the M. Bahia (daily renewal).Toxicity tests 7 days duration were used for detecting effects on the survival and fecundity in M. juniae. Lethal Concentration 50% (LC50%) was determined by the Trimmed Spearman-Karber; Inhibition Concentration 50% (IC50%) in fecundity was determined by Linear Interpolation. ANOVA (One Way) tests (p = 0.05) were used to determinate the No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and Low Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). Effluents flows were measured and the toxic load of the effluents was estimated. Multivariate analysis - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Correspondence Analysis (CA) - identified the physic-chemical parameters better explain the patterns of toxicity found in survival and fecundity of M. juniae. We verified the feasibility of applying the only renewal system in chronic tests with M. Juniae. Most efluentes proved toxic on the survival and fecundity of M. Juniae, except for some shrimp pond effluents. The most toxic effluent was ETE Lagoa Aerada (LC50, 6.24%; IC50, 4.82%), ETE Quintas (LC50, 5.85%), Giselda Trigueiro Hospital (LC50, 2.05%), CLAN (LC50, 2.14%) and COTEMINAS (LC50, IC50 and 38.51%, 6.94%). The greatest toxic load was originated from ETE inefficient high flow effluents, textile effluents and CLAN. The organic load was related to the toxic effects of wastewater and hospital effluents in survival of M. Juniae, as well as heavy metals, total residual chlorine and phenols. In industrial effluents was found relationship between toxicity and organic load, phenols, oils and greases and benzene. The effects on fertility were related, in turn, with chlorine and heavy metals. Toxicity tests using other organisms of different trophic levels, as well as analysis of sediment toxicity are recommended to confirm the patterns found with M. Juniae. However, the results indicate the necessity for implementation and improvement of sewage treatment systems affluent to the Potengi s estuary

Comparison between a soluble antigen-based ELISA and IFAT in detecting antibodies against Babesia canis in dogs

O presente trabalho estudou um ensaio imunoenzimático (ELISA) indireto para a detecção de anticorpos anti-Babesia canis no soro de cães, tendo a Reação de Imunofluorescência Indireta (RIFI), como teste de referência O antígeno utilizado no ELISA do presente estudo consistiu em uma preparação antigênica solúvel de merozoítas B. canis e as diluições ótimas do antígeno, soros e conjugado foram determinadas por titulação em bloco, utilizando soros de referência positivos e negativos. A preparação antigênica solúvel de B. canis ótima foi de 10 µg.mL-1, com soros de referência positivos e negativos em uma única diluição de 1:100, e conjugado a 1:4.000. Um total de 246 amostras séricas foram colhidas em cães, durante a campanha de vacinação anti-rábica em Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brasil e a presença de anticorpos anti-B. canis foi avaliada pelo ELISA e RIFI. Nestas condições, a média de absorbância dos soros de referência negativos foi de 0,129 ± 0,025, resultando em um ponto de corte de 0,323 (Nível de ELISA 3) e a média da absorbância dos soros de referência positivos foi de 2,156 ± 1,187. As amostras com sorologia positiva para B. canis por ELISA e RIFI foram 67,89% (n = 167) e 59,35% (n = 146), respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o ELISA descrito revelou-se um teste sorológico eficaz no diagnóstico da babesiose canina.

Biodiesel etílico filtrado de óleo residual de soja: desempenho de um trator agrícola na operação de gradagem

Filtered ethyl ester biodiesel from residual soybean oil: performance of an agricultural tractor in the disk harrow operation. This test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an agricultural tractor using a mixture of biodiesel and petroleum diesel. The experiment was conducted at FCAV-Unesp, Jaboticabal, using a 4x2 AFWD tractor with 73.6 kW (100 hp @ 2,300 rpm) of power in the motor, pulling a disk harrow. The biodiesel used was of the ethyl type, filtered, and produced from residual soybean oil. The experimental design was completed randomized in factorial scheme (4x5), with 20 treatments and 4 repetitions, in which 5 ratios of biodiesel and petroleum diesel mixtures were combined (0 and 100%, 25 and 75%, 50 and 50%, 75 and 25% and 100 and 0%), with 4 displacement runs. The analyzed variables were traction bar power, engine rotation and displacement speed. The results evidenced that the mixture ratio (biodiesel and petroleum diesel) did not compromise tractor performance until the limit of 50%.

Accelerated ageing test to evaluate seed vigor in pumpkin and zucchini seeds

The accelerated ageing (AA) test is widely used to evaluate seed vigor in various species including vegetable crops. The objective of this work was to study procedures for conducting AA to evaluate seed vigor of pumpkin and zucchini seed lots. Five seed lots of commercially acceptable quality (germination) standards were selected from both cv. `Menina Brasileira' (zucchini) and `Barbara' Hybrid (pumpkin). The following tests were conducted: standard germination, the first count of germination, and AA with and without saline solution (periods of 48, 72 and 96 hours). For each combination of temperature and ageing period, seeds were placed in a single layer on a screen in a germination plastic box with either 40 mL deionized water or 40g NaCl/100mL of water. Both AA methods identified lots 2 and 5 of `Menina Brasileira' and lot 10 of `Barbara' hybrid as having the lowest physiological quality. The temperature 41 C promoted a more drastic reduction in germination than did 38 C. This observation was more marked after 96 hours. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the combination 41 degrees C/96 hours should be used to evaluate the physiological potential of pumpkin and zucchini seeds; however, additional studies are necessary to evaluate other combinations and confirm this indication.