Regressão Logística Geograficamente Ponderada aplicada a modelos de Credit Scoring

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração, 2016.

Kinematics and Local Motion Planning for Quasi-static Whole-body Mobile Manipulation

This thesis studies mobile robotic manipulators, where one or more robot manipulator arms are integrated with a mobile robotic base. The base could be a wheeled or tracked vehicle, or it might be a multi-limbed locomotor. As robots are increasingly deployed in complex and unstructured environments, the need for mobile manipulation increases. Mobile robotic assistants have the potential to revolutionize human lives in a large variety of settings including home, industrial and outdoor environments.

Mobile Manipulation is the use or study of such mobile robots as they interact with physical objects in their environment. As compared to fixed base manipulators, mobile manipulators can take advantage of the base mechanism’s added degrees of freedom in the task planning and execution process. But their use also poses new problems in the analysis and control of base system stability, and the planning of coordinated base and arm motions. For mobile manipulators to be successfully and efficiently used, a thorough understanding of their kinematics, stability, and capabilities is required. Moreover, because mobile manipulators typically possess a large number of actuators, new and efficient methods to coordinate their large numbers of degrees of freedom are needed to make them practically deployable. This thesis develops new kinematic and stability analyses of mobile manipulation, and new algorithms to efficiently plan their motions.

I first develop detailed and novel descriptions of the kinematics governing the operation of multi- limbed legged robots working in the presence of gravity, and whose limbs may also be simultaneously used for manipulation. The fundamental stance constraint that arises from simple assumptions about friction and the ground contact and feasible motions is derived. Thereafter, a local relationship between joint motions and motions of the robot abdomen and reaching limbs is developed. Baseeon these relationships, one can define and analyze local kinematic qualities including limberness, wrench resistance and local dexterity. While previous researchers have noted the similarity between multi- fingered grasping and quasi-static manipulation, this thesis makes explicit connections between these two problems.

The kinematic expressions form the basis for a local motion planning problem that that determines the joint motions to achieve several simultaneous objectives while maintaining stance stability in the presence of gravity. This problem is translated into a convex quadratic program entitled the balanced priority solution, whose existence and uniqueness properties are developed. This problem is related in spirit to the classical redundancy resoxlution and task-priority approaches. With some simple modifications, this local planning and optimization problem can be extended to handle a large variety of goals and constraints that arise in mobile-manipulation. This local planning problem applies readily to other mobile bases including wheeled and articulated bases. This thesis describes the use of the local planning techniques to generate global plans, as well as for use within a feedback loop. The work in this thesis is motivated in part by many practical tasks involving the Surrogate and RoboSimian robots at NASA/JPL, and a large number of examples involving the two robots, both real and simulated, are provided.

Finally, this thesis provides an analysis of simultaneous force and motion control for multi- limbed legged robots. Starting with a classical linear stiffness relationship, an analysis of this problem for multiple point contacts is described. The local velocity planning problem is extended to include generation of forces, as well as to maintain stability using force-feedback. This thesis also provides a concise, novel definition of static stability, and proves some conditions under which it is satisfied.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

Enfoque da estatística espacial em modelos dinâmicos de mudança do uso do solo.

O atual nível das mudanças uso do solo causa impactos nas mudanças ambientais globais. Os processos de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo são processos complexos e não acontecem ao acaso sobre uma região. Geralmente estas mudanças são determinadas localmente, regionalmente ou globalmente por fatores geográficos, ambientais, sociais, econômicos e políticos interagindo em diversas escalas temporais e espaciais. Parte desta complexidade é capturada por modelos de simulação de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo. Uma etapa do processo de simulação do modelo CLUE-S é a quantificação da influência local dos impulsores de mudança sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência de uma classe de uso do solo. Esta influência local é obtida ajustando um modelo de regressão logística. Um modelo de regressão espacial é proposto como alternativa para selecionar os impulsores de mudanças. Este modelo incorpora a informação da vizinhança espacial existente nos dados que não é considerada na regressão logística. Baseado em um cenário de tendência linear para a demanda agregada do uso do solo, simulações da mudança do uso do solo para a microbacia do Coxim, Mato Grosso do Sul, foram geradas, comparadas e analisadas usando o modelo CLUE-S sob os enfoques da regressão logística e espacial para o período de 2001 a 2011. Ambos os enfoques apresentaram simulações com muito boa concordância, medidas de acurácia global e Kappa altos, com o uso do solo para o ano de referência de 2004. A diferença entre os enfoques foi observada na distribuição espacial da simulação do uso do solo para o ano 2011, sendo o enfoque da regressão espacial que teve a simulação com menor discrepância com a demanda do uso do solo para esse ano.

The Physical Analyze of Local Grass

A research has been conducted to analyze physical characteristics of local grass. The aimed of this research was to observe grass physical characteristics, which are bulkiness, water regain capacity and water solubility. Also to observe correlation of water regain capacity to dry matter and organic matter digestibility as well as its degradation rate during 0, 12, 18 and 24 h incubation, in sacco, using 2 fistulae cows.  Five local grass were tested in this research, which are field grass, elephant grass, brachiaria grass, king grass and setaria. Fistulae cows consumed forages and concentrates with ratio of 70:30, minimum protein level of 12% and minimum TDN of 60%. Physical characteristics data that obtained then analyzed using analysis of variance. Furthermore, honestly significant different was also performed. Dry matter and organic matter digestibility data that obtained were analyzed with regression of physical characteristics.  Result showed that brachiaria grass has poor water regain capacity and water solubility.  There are positive linear correlation between water regains capacity with dry matter and organic matter digestibility. (Animal Production 6(1): 37-42 (2004) Key Words: Bulkiness, Water Regain Capacity, Water Solubility, Dry Matter and Organic Matter Digestibility

A second order control-volume finite-element least-squares strategy for simulating diffusion in strongly anisotropic media

An unstructured mesh �nite volume discretisation method for simulating di�usion in anisotropic media in two-dimensional space is discussed. This technique is considered as an extension of the fully implicit hybrid control-volume �nite-element method and it retains the local continuity of the ux at the control volume faces. A least squares function recon- struction technique together with a new ux decomposition strategy is used to obtain an accurate ux approximation at the control volume face, ensuring that the overall accuracy of the spatial discretisation maintains second order. This paper highlights that the new technique coincides with the traditional shape function technique when the correction term is neglected and that it signi�cantly increases the accuracy of the previous linear scheme on coarse meshes when applied to media that exhibit very strong to extreme anisotropy ratios. It is concluded that the method can be used on both regular and irregular meshes, and appears independent of the mesh quality.