Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Reduced incidence of insect-bite hypersensitivity in Icelandic horses is associated with a down-regulation of interleukin-4 by interleukin-10 and transforming growth factor-beta1

Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an allergic dermatitis of horses caused by IgE-mediated reactions to bites of insects of the genus Culicoides. IBH does not occur in Iceland due to the absence of Culicoides. However, Icelandic horses exported to mainland Europe as adults (1st generation) have a >/=50% incidence of developing IBH. In contrast, their progeny (2nd generation) has a <10% incidence of IBH. Here we show that peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from Icelandic horses born in mainland Europe and belonging either to the IBH or healthy subgroup produce less interleukin (IL)-4 after polyclonal or allergen-specific stimulation when compared with counterparts from horses born in Iceland. We examined a role of IL-10 and transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta1 in down-regulation of IL-4 in healthy 2nd generation Icelandic horses. Supernatants of PBMC from 2nd generation healthy horses down-regulated the proportion of IL-4-producing cells and IL-4 production in stimulated cultures of PBMC from 1st generation IBH. This inhibition was mimicked by a combination of IL-10 and TGF-beta1 but not by the single cytokines. Cultures of stimulated PBMC of healthy 2nd generation horses produced a low level of IL-4, but IL-4 production was increased by anti-equine IL-10 and anti-human TGF-beta1. This shows for the first time that in horses, IL-10 and TGF-beta1 combined regulate IL-4 production in vitro. It is suggested that in this naturally occurring IgE-mediated allergy, IL-10 and TGF-beta1 have a role in the down-regulation of IL-4-induced allergen-specific Th2 cells, thereby reducing the incidence of IBH.

Determinants of reduced walking speed in people with musculoskeletal pain

OBJECTIVE: Maintenance of good walking speed is essential to independent living. People with musculoskeletal disease often have reduced walking speed. We investigated determinants of slower walking, other than musculoskeletal disease, that might provide valuable additional targets for therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Somerset and Avon Survey of Health, a community based survey of people aged over 35 years. A total of 2703 participants who reported hip or knee pain at baseline (1994/1995) were studied, and reassessed in 2002-2003; 1696 were available for followup, and walking speed was tested in 1074. Walking speed (m/s) was used as outcome measure. Baseline characteristics, including comorbidities and socioeconomic factors, were tested for their ability to predict reduced walking speed using multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Age, female sex, and immobility at baseline were predictive of slower walking speed. Other independent risk factors included the presence of cataract, low socioeconomic status, intermittent claudication, and other cardiovascular conditions. Having a cataract was associated with a decrease of 0.10 m/s (95% CI 0.03, 0.16). Those in social class V had a walking speed 0.22 m/s (95% CI 0.126, 0.31) slower than those in social class I. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities, age, female sex, and lower socioeconomic position determine walking speed in people with joint pain. Issues such as poor vision and social-economic disadvantage may add to the effect of musculoskeletal disease, suggesting the need for a holistic approach to management of these patients.

Placental ABCA1 expression is reduced in primary antiphospholipid syndrome compared to pre-eclampsia and controls

The ATP binding cassette transporter A1 (ABCA1) mediates cellular cholesterol and phospholipid efflux, and is implicated in phosphatidylserine translocation and apoptosis. Loss of functional ABCA1 in null mice results in severe placental malformation. This study aimed to establish the placental localisation of ABCA1 and to investigate whether ABCA1 expression is altered in placentas from pregnancies complicated by pre-eclampsia and antiphospholipid syndrome. ABCA1 mRNA and protein localisation studies were carried out using in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Comparisons of gene expression were performed using real-time PCR and immunoblotting. ABCA1 mRNA and protein was localised to the apical syncytium of placental villi and endothelia of fetal blood vessels within the villi. ABCA1 mRNA expression was reduced in placentas from women with APS when compared to controls (p<0.001), and this was paralleled by reductions in ABCA1 protein expression. There were no differences in ABCA1 expression between placentas from pre-eclamptic pregnancies and controls. The localisation of ABCA1 in human placenta is consistent with a role in cholesterol and phospholipid transport. The decrease in ABCA1 protein in APS may reflect reduced cholesterol transport to the fetus affecting the formation of cell membranes and decreasing the level of substrate available for steroidogenesis.

Reduced neuronal efficacy in progressive mild cognitive impairment: a prospective fMRI study on visuospatial processing

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often refers to the preclinical stage of dementia, where the majority develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given that neurodegenerative burden and compensatory mechanisms might exist before accepted clinical symptoms of AD are noticeable, the current prospective study aimed to investigate the functioning of brain regions in the visuospatial networks responsible for preclinical symptoms in AD using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Eighteen MCI patients were evaluated and clinically followed for approximately 3 years. Five progressed to AD (PMCI) and eight remained stable (SMCI). Thirteen age-, gender- and education-matched controls also participated. An angle discrimination task with varying task demands was used. Brain activation patterns as well as task demand-dependent and -independent signal changes between the groups were investigated by using an extended general linear model including individual performance (reaction time [RT]) of each single trial. Similar behavioral (RT and accuracy) responses were observed between MCI patients and controls. A network of bilateral activations, e.g. dorsal pathway, which increased linearly with increasing task demand, was engaged in all subjects. Compared with SMCI patients and controls, PMCI patients showed a stronger relation between task demand and brain activity in left superior parietal lobules (SPL) as well as a general task demand-independent increased activation in left precuneus. Altered brain function can be detected at a group level in individuals that progress to AD before changes occur at the behavioral level. Increased parietal activation in PMCI could reflect a reduced neuronal efficacy due to accumulating AD pathology and might predict future clinical decline in patients with MCI.

Reduced hippocampal anisotropy related to anteriorization of alpha EEG in schizophrenia

Dysfunctions of the hippocampus have been suggested to be related to schizophrenia, and reduced connectivity with other brain regions may be a key for the pathophysiology. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of white matter anomalies in the hippocampus, as a sign of altered connectivity, on the brain electrical activity. We investigated seven first episode schizophrenic patients and seven age, gender and education-matched controls with diffusion tensor imaging and resting EEG. Fractional anisotropy was computed based on diffusion tensor imaging data for the right and left hippocampus for both groups. No group differences were found in hippocampal fractional anisotropy, EEG spectral power and topography. However a significant correlation was found between more anterior alpha activity and lower fractional anisotropy of both hippocampi in schizophrenics, but not in controls. More anterior alpha activity has been described in schizophrenia. We conclude that this feature might depict a group of schizophrenic patients with reduced hippocampal connectivity.

Vascular dysfunction and reduced circulating endothelial progenitor cells in young healthy UK South Asian men

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to examine determinants of excess coronary artery disease risk in UK South Asians, more prevalent in this population than UK Caucasians, by examining differences in risk factors, vascular function, and endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs). METHODS AND RESULTS: 24 South Asian and 25 Caucasian healthy age-matched nonsmoking men were studied. Vascular function was assessed by flow-mediated and GTN brachial artery dilatation and blood flow responses to infusion of ACh, SNP, and L-NMMA. EPC number and function were measured by flow cytometry (CD34, CD133, and KDR positive cells), and CFU/migration assays. Traditional risk factors and anthropometric measurements were similar in the groups. South Asians had higher fasting insulin levels (6.01 versus 3.62 microU/mL; P = 0.02). South Asians had lower FMD (6.9 versus 8.5%; P = 0.003), L-NMMA response (0.8 versus 1.3 mL/min/100 mL; P = 0.03), mean SNP response (9.5+/-0.6 versus 11.6+/-0.6; P = 0.02), EPC number (0.046+/-0.005% versus 0.085+/-0.009%; P = < 0.001), and CFU ability (CFU 4.29+/-1.57 versus 18.86+/-4.00; P = 0.005). EPC number was the strongest predictor of FMD. Ethnicity was the strongest predictor of EPC number. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy South Asian men are more insulin resistant, and demonstrate endothelial dysfunction and reduced EPC number and function compared with Caucasians. These abnormalities may contribute to their increased CAD risk.