A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Forecast calibration and combination: a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO

This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecasts were obtained by linear regression between December and the preceding July Niño-3.4 index values over the period 1950–2001. Coupled model ensemble forecasts for the period 1987–99 were provided by ECMWF, as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. Empirical and raw coupled model ensemble forecasts alone have similar mean absolute error forecast skill score, compared to climatological forecasts, of around 50% over the period 1987–99. The combined forecast gives an increased skill score of 74% and provides a well-calibrated and reliable estimate of forecast uncertainty.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Chromosomal mapping of ANTP class homeobox genes in amphioxus: piecing together ancestral genomes

Homeobox genes encode DNA-binding proteins, many of which are implicated in the control of embryonic development. Evolutionarily, most homeobox genes fall into two related clades: the ANTP and the PRD classes. Some genes in ANTP class, notably Hox, ParaHox, and NK genes, have an intriguing arrangement into physical clusters. To investigate the evolutionary history of these gene clusters, we examined homeobox gene chromosomal locations in the cephalochordate amphioxus, Branchiostoma floridae. We deduce that 22 amphioxus ANTP class homeobox genes localize in just three chromosomes. One contains the Hox cluster plus AmphiEn, AmphiMnx, and AmphiDll. The ParaHox cluster resides in another chromosome, whereas a third chromosome contains the NK type homeobox genes, including AmphiMsx and ArnphiTlx. By comparative analysis we infer that clustering of ANTP class homeobox genes evolved just once, during a series of extensive cis-duplication events of genes early in animal evolution. A trans-duplication event occurred later to yield the Hox and ParaHox gene clusters on different chromosomes. The results obtained have implications for understanding the origin of homeobox gene clustering, the diversification of the ANTP class of homeobox genes, and the evolution of animal genomes.

Protochordate Zic genes define primitive somite compartments and highlight molecular changes underlying neural crest evolution

The vertebrate Zic gene family encodes C2H2 zinc finger transcription factors closely related to the Gli proteins. Zic genes are expressed in multiple areas of developing vertebrate embryos, including the dorsal neural tube where they act as potent neural crest inducers. Here we describe the characterization of a Zic ortholog from the amphioxus Branchiostoma floridae and further describe the expression of a Zic ortholog from the ascidian Ciona intestinalis. Molecular phylogenetic analysis and sequence comparisons suggest the gene duplications that formed the vertebrate Zic family were specific to the vertebrate lineage. In Ciona maternal CiZic/Ci-macho1 transcripts are localized during cleavage stages by asymmetric cell division, whereas zygotic expression by neural plate cells commences during neurulation. The amphioxus Zic ortholog AmphiZic is expressed in dorsal mesoderm and ectoderm during gastrulation, before being eliminated first from midline cells and then from all neurectoderm during neurulation. After neurulation, expression is reactivated in the dorsal neural tube and dorsolateral somite. Comparison of CiZic and AmphiZic expression with vertebrate Zic expression leads to two main conclusions. First, Zic expression allows us to define homologous compartments between vertebrate and amphioxus somites, showing primitive subdivision of vertebrate segmented mesoderm. Second, we show that neural Zic expression is a chordate synapomorphy, whereas the precise pattern of neural expression has evolved differently on the different chordate lineages. Based on these observations we suggest that a change in Zic regulation, specifically the evolution of a dorsal neural expression domain in vertebrate neurulae, was an important step in the evolution of the neural crest.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Influence of the solvent on the self-assembly of a modified amyloid beta peptide fragment. I. Morphological investigation

The solvent-induced transition between self-assembled structures formed by the peptide AAKLVFF is studied via electron microscopy, light scattering, and spectroscopic techniques. The peptide is based on a core fragment of the amyloid beta-peptide, KLVFF, extended by two alanine residues. AAKLVFF exhibits distinct structures of twisted fibrils in water or nanotubes in methanol. For intermediate water/methanol compositions, these structures are disrupted and replaced by wide filamentous tapes that appear to be lateral aggregates of thin protofilaments. The orientation of the beta-strands in the twisted tapes or nanotubes can be deduced from X-ray diffraction on aligned stalks, as well as FT-IR experiments in transmission compared to attenuated total reflection. Strands are aligned perpendicular to the axis of the twisted fibrils or the nanotubes. The results are interpreted in light of recent results on the effect of competitive hydrogen bonding upon self-assembly in soft materials in water/methanol mixtures.

Structural study of BSA/poly(ethylene glycol) lipid conjugate complexes

In this work we report the structural characteristics of bovine serum albumin/poly(ethylene glycol) lipid conjugate (BSA/PEG(2000)-PE) complexes under physiological conditions (37 degrees C and pH 7.4) for particular fractions of BSA to PEG-lipid concentration, CBSA/C-PEG2000-PE. Ultraviolet fluorescence spectroscopy (UV) results shown that PEG(2000)-PE is associated to BSA, leading to;protein unfolding for fixed C-BSA = 0.01 wt % and variable C-PEG2000-PE = 0.0015-0.6 wt %. Tryptophan groups on the BSA surface are in contact with the PEG-lipid at C-PEG2000-PE = 0.0015 wt %, while they are exposed to water at C-PEG2000-PE (>)0.0015 wt %. Dynamic and static light scattering (DLS and SLS) and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) point out the existence of individual BSAIPEG-lipid complexes in the system for fixed C-BSA = 1 wt % and variable C-PEG2000-PE = 0.15-2 wt %. DLS shows that there is only one BSA molecule per protein/PEG-lipid complex, while SLS shows that the PEG-lipid associates to the BSA without promoting aggregation between adjacent protein/ polymer-lipid conjugate complexes. SANS was used to show that BSA/PEG(2000)-PE complexes adopt an oblate ellipsoidal shape. Partially unfolded BSA is contained in the core of the oblate ellipsoid, which is surrounded by an external shell containing the PEG(2000)-PE.

An overview and historical look back at the solvent extraction using nitrogen donor ligands to extract and separate An(III) from Ln(III)

The partitioning of minor trivalent actinides (An) from lanthanides (Ln) is one of the challenges in the chemical treatment of nuclear waste. The optimal ligand to carry out the separation of An(III) and Ln(III) using solvent extraction has to meet several important criteria: high selectivity towards the solute, chemical and radiolytic stability, stripping possibilities and recycling of the organic phase, high separation factors and good distribution ratio, to name just a few of them. A chronological line can be drawn along the development of each extraction ligand family and some milestones are emphasized in this overview. Further developments in organic synthesis of extracting ligands are expected.

Molecular aluminum hydrides identified by inelastic neutron scattering during H-2 regeneration of catalyst-doped NaAlH4

Catalyst-doped sodium aluminum hydrides have been intensively studied as solid hydrogen carriers for onboard proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. Although the importance of catalyst choice in enhancing kinetics for both hydrogen uptake and release of this hydride material has long been recognized, the nature of the active species and the mechanism of catalytic action are unclear. We have shown by inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectroscopy that a volatile molecular aluminum hydride is formed during the early stage of H-2 re-eneration of a depleted, catalyst-doped sodium aluminum hydride. Computational modeling of the INS spectra suggested the formation of AlH3 and oligomers (AlH3)(n) (Al2H6, Al3H9, and Al4H12 clusters), which are pertinent to the mechanism of hydrogen storage. This paper demonstrates, for the first time, the existence of these volatile species.

Hydrogen spillover on carbon-supported metal catalysts studied by inelastic neutron scattering. Surface vibrational states and hydrogen riding modes

Hydrogen spillover on carbon-supported precious metal catalysts has been investigated with inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectroscopy. The aim, which was fully realized, was to identify spillover hydrogen on the carbon support. The inelastic neutron scattering spectra of Pt/C, Ru/C, and PtRu/C fuel cell catalysts dosed with hydrogen were determined in two sets of experiments: with the catalyst in the neutron beam and, using an annular cell, with carbon in the beam and catalyst pellets at the edge of the cell excluded from the beam. The vibrational modes observed in the INS spectra were assigned with reference to the INS of a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, coronene, taken as a molecular model of a graphite layer, and with the aid of computational modeling. Two forms of spillover hydrogen were identified: H at edge sites of a graphite layer (formed after ambient dissociative chemisorption of H-2), and a weakly bound layer of mobile H atoms (formed by surface diffusion of H atoms after dissociative chernisorption of H-2 at 500 K). The INS spectra exhibited characteristic riding modes of H on carbon and on Pt or Ru. In these riding modes H atoms move in phase with vibrations of the carbon and metal lattices. The lattice modes are amplified by neutron scattering from the H atoms attached to lattice atoms. Uptake of hydrogen, and spillover, was greater for the Ru containing catalysts than for the Pt/C catalyst. The INS experiments have thus directly demonstrated H spillover to the carbon support of these metal catalysts.

Modified rare earth semiconductor oxide as a new nucleotide probe

Recent rapid developments in biological analysis, medical diagnosis, pharmaceutical industry, and environmental control fuel the urgent need for recognition of particular DNA sequences from samples. Currently, DNA detection techniques use radiochemical, enzymatic, fluorescent, or electrochemiluminescent methods; however, these techniques require costly labeled DNA and highly skilled and cumbersome procedure, which prohibit any in-situ monitoring. Here, we report that hybridization of surface-immobilized single-stranded oligonucleotide on praseodymium oxide (evaluated as a biosensor surface for the first time) with complimentary strands in solution provokes a significant shift of electrical impedance curve. This shift is attributed to a change in electrical characteristics through modification of surface charge of the underlying modified praseodymium oxide upon hybridization with the complementary oligonucelotide strand. On the other hand, using a noncomplementary single strand in solution does not create an equivalent change in the impedance value. This result clearly suggests that a new and simple electrochemical technique based on the change in electrical properties of the modified praseodymium oxide semiconductor surface upon recognition and transduction of a biological event without using labeled species is revealed.

Solid phases of cyclopentane: combined experimental and simulation study

The phase diagram of cyclopentane has been studied by powder neutron diffraction, providing diffraction patterns for phases I, II, and III, over a range of temperatures and pressures. The putative phase IV was not observed. The structure of the ordered phase III has been solved by single-crystal diffraction. Computational modeling reveals that there are many equienergetic ordered structures for cyclopentane within a small energy range. Molecular dynamics simulations reproduce the structures and diffraction patterns for phases I and III and also show an intermediate disordered phase, which is used to interpret phase II.