Analysis of earthquakes predictability

Earthquake prediction is a complex task for scientists due to the rare occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes and their inaccessible depths. Despite this challenge, it is a priority to protect infrastructure, and populations living in areas of high seismic risk. Reliable forecasting requires comprehensive knowledge of seismic phenomena. In this thesis, the development, application, and comparison of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods is shown. Regarding the deterministic approach, the implementation of an alarm-based method using the occurrence of strong (fore)shocks, widely felt by the population, as a precursor signal is described. This model is then applied for retrospective prediction of Italian earthquakes of magnitude M≥5.0,5.5,6.0, occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2020. Retrospective performance testing is carried out using tests and statistics specific to deterministic alarm-based models. Regarding probabilistic models, this thesis focuses mainly on the EEPAS and ETAS models. Although the EEPAS model has been previously applied and tested in some regions of the world, it has never been used for forecasting Italian earthquakes. In the thesis, the EEPAS model is used to retrospectively forecast Italian shallow earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥5.0 using new MATLAB software. The forecasting performance of the probabilistic models was compared to other models using CSEP binary tests. The EEPAS and ETAS models showed different characteristics for forecasting Italian earthquakes, with EEPAS performing better in the long-term and ETAS performing better in the short-term. The FORE model based on strong precursor quakes is compared to EEPAS and ETAS using an alarm-based deterministic approach. All models perform better than a random forecasting model, with ETAS and FORE models showing better performance. However, to fully evaluate forecasting performance, prospective tests should be conducted. The lack of objective tests for evaluating deterministic models and comparing them with probabilistic ones was a challenge faced during the study.

Analysis Of The Dna Fourier Transform-infrared Microspectroscopic Signature Using An All-reflecting Objective.

The Fourier transform-infrared (FT-IR) signature of dry samples of DNA and DNA-polypeptide complexes, as studied by IR microspectroscopy using a diamond attenuated total reflection (ATR) objective, has revealed important discriminatory characteristics relative to the PO2(-) vibrational stretchings. However, DNA IR marks that provide information on the sample's richness in hydrogen bonds have not been resolved in the spectral profiles obtained with this objective. Here we investigated the performance of an all reflecting objective (ARO) for analysis of the FT-IR signal of hydrogen bonds in DNA samples differing in base richness types (salmon testis vs calf thymus). The results obtained using the ARO indicate prominent band peaks at the spectral region representative of the vibration of nitrogenous base hydrogen bonds and of NH and NH2 groups. The band areas at this spectral region differ in agreement with the DNA base richness type when using the ARO. A peak assigned to adenine was more evident in the AT-rich salmon DNA using either the ARO or the ATR objective. It is concluded that, for the discrimination of DNA IR hydrogen bond vibrations associated with varying base type proportions, the use of an ARO is recommended.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Effect Of Platform Connection And Abutment Material On Stress Distribution In Single Anterior Implant-supported Restorations: A Nonlinear 3-dimensional Finite Element Analysis.

Although various abutment connections and materials have recently been introduced, insufficient data exist regarding the effect of stress distribution on their mechanical performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of different abutment materials and platform connections on stress distribution in single anterior implant-supported restorations with the finite element method. Nine experimental groups were modeled from the combination of 3 platform connections (external hexagon, internal hexagon, and Morse tapered) and 3 abutment materials (titanium, zirconia, and hybrid) as follows: external hexagon-titanium, external hexagon-zirconia, external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, internal hexagon-zirconia, internal hexagon-hybrid, Morse tapered-titanium, Morse tapered-zirconia, and Morse tapered-hybrid. Finite element models consisted of a 4×13-mm implant, anatomic abutment, and lithium disilicate central incisor crown cemented over the abutment. The 49 N occlusal loading was applied in 6 steps to simulate the incisal guidance. Equivalent von Mises stress (σvM) was used for both the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the implant and abutment in all the groups and the maximum (σmax) and minimum (σmin) principal stresses for the numerical comparison of the zirconia parts. The highest abutment σvM occurred in the Morse-tapered groups and the lowest in the external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, and internal hexagon-hybrid groups. The σmax and σmin values were lower in the hybrid groups than in the zirconia groups. The stress distribution concentrated in the abutment-implant interface in all the groups, regardless of the platform connection or abutment material. The platform connection influenced the stress on abutments more than the abutment material. The stress values for implants were similar among different platform connections, but greater stress concentrations were observed in internal connections.

Comparison Of Postoperative Stability Of Three Rigid Internal Fixation Techniques After Sagittal Split Ramus Osteotomy For Mandibular Advancement.

The aim of this investigation was to compare the skeletal stability of three different rigid fixation methods after mandibular advancement. Fifty-five class II malocclusion patients treated with the use of bilateral sagittal split ramus osteotomy and mandibular advancement were selected for this retrospective study. Group 1 (n = 17) had miniplates with monocortical screws, Group 2 (n = 16) had bicortical screws and Group 3 (n = 22) had the osteotomy fixed by means of the hybrid technique. Cephalograms were taken preoperatively, 1 week within the postoperative care period, and 6 months after the orthognathic surgery. Linear and angular changes of the cephalometric landmarks of the chin region were measured at each period, and the changes at each cephalometric landmark were determined for the time gaps. Postoperative changes in the mandibular shape were analyzed to determine the stability of fixation methods. There was minimum difference in the relapse of the mandibular advancement among the three groups. Statistical analysis showed no significant difference in postoperative stability. However, a positive correlation between the amount of advancement and the amount of postoperative relapse was demonstrated by the linear multiple regression test (p < 0.05). It can be concluded that all techniques can be used to obtain stable postoperative results in mandibular advancement after 6 months.

Combined Analysis Of νμ Disappearance And νμ→νe Appearance In Minos Using Accelerator And Atmospheric Neutrinos.

We report on a new analysis of neutrino oscillations in MINOS using the complete set of accelerator and atmospheric data. The analysis combines the ν(μ) disappearance and ν(e) appearance data using the three-flavor formalism. We measure |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.28-2.46] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.35-0.65 (90% C.L.) in the normal hierarchy, and |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.32-2.53] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.34-0.67 (90% C.L.) in the inverted hierarchy. The data also constrain δ(CP), the θ(23} octant degeneracy and the mass hierarchy; we disfavor 36% (11%) of this three-parameter space at 68% (90%) C.L.

Vascular Pattern In Enchondroma And Chondrosarcoma: Clinical And Immunohistologic Study.

Although cartilaginous tumors have low microvascular density, vessels are important for the provision of nutrition so that the tumor can grow and generate metastasis. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the vascular pattern classification as a prognostic tool in chondrosarcomas (CSs) and its relation with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression. This was a retrospective study of 21 enchondromas and 57 conventional CSs. Clinical data and outcome were retrieved from medical files. CSs histologic grades (on a scale of 1 to 3) were determined according to the World Health Organization classification. The vascular pattern (on a scale of A to C) was assessed through CD34, according to Kalinski. CD105 and VEGF were also evaluated. Poor outcome was significantly associated with vascular pattern groups B and C. Higher vascular pattern were 6.5 times more frequent in moderate-grade and high-grade CSs than in grade 1 CS. On multivariate analysis, a clear correlation was found between VEGF overexpression and B/C vascular patterns. Only 18 (benign and malignant) tumors stained for CD105. The results point to the use of the vascular pattern classification as a prognostic tool in CSs and to differentiate low-grade from moderate-grade/high-grade CSs. Vascular pattern might be also used to complement histologic grade, VEGF immunostaining, and microvascular density, for indicating a patient's prognosis. Low-grade CSs develop under low neoangiogenesis, which conforms to the slow growth rate of these tumors.

Phylogenetic Analysis Of The Microbial Community In Hypersaline Petroleum Produced Water From The Campos Basin.

In this work the archaea and eubacteria community of a hypersaline produced water from the Campos Basin that had been transported and discharged to an onshore storage facility was evaluated by 16S recombinant RNA (rRNA) gene sequence analysis. The produced water had a hypersaline salt content of 10 (w/v), had a carbon oxygen demand (COD) of 4,300 mg/l and contains phenol and other aromatic compounds. The high salt and COD content and the presence of toxic phenolic compounds present a problem for conventional discharge to open seawater. In previous studies, we demonstrated that the COD and phenolic content could be largely removed under aerobic conditions, without dilution, by either addition of phenol degrading Haloarchaea or the addition of nutrients alone. In this study our goal was to characterize the microbial community to gain further insight into the persistence of reservoir community members in the produced water and the potential for bioremediation of COD and toxic contaminants. Members of the archaea community were consistent with previously identified communities from mesothermic reservoirs. All identified archaea were located within the phylum Euryarchaeota, with 98 % being identified as methanogens while 2 % could not be affiliated with any known genus. Of the identified archaea, 37 % were identified as members of the strictly carbon-dioxide-reducing genus Methanoplanus and 59 % as members of the acetoclastic genus Methanosaeta. No Haloarchaea were detected, consistent with the need to add these organisms for COD and aromatic removal. Marinobacter and Halomonas dominated the eubacterial community. The presence of these genera is consistent with the ability to stimulate COD and aromatic removal with nutrient addition. In addition, anaerobic members of the phyla Thermotogae, Firmicutes, and unclassified eubacteria were identified and may represent reservoir organisms associated with the conversion hydrocarbons to methane.

Longitudinal Analysis Of Hippocampal T2 Relaxometry In Fmtle.

To investigate the degree of T2 relaxometry changes over time in groups of patients with familial mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (FMTLE) and asymptomatic relatives. We conducted both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of T2 relaxometry with Aftervoxel, an in-house software for medical image visualization. The cross-sectional study included 35 subjects (26 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives) and 40 controls; the longitudinal study was composed of 30 subjects (21 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives; the mean time interval of MRIs was 4.4 ± 1.5 years) and 16 controls. To increase the size of our groups of patients and relatives, we combined data acquired in 2 scanners (2T and 3T) and obtained z-scores using their respective controls. General linear model on SPSS21® was used for statistical analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, elevated T2 relaxometry was identified for subjects with seizures and intermediate values for asymptomatic relatives compared to controls. Subjects with MRI signs of hippocampal sclerosis presented elevated T2 relaxometry in the ipsilateral hippocampus, while patients and asymptomatic relatives with normal MRI presented elevated T2 values in the right hippocampus. The longitudinal analysis revealed a significant increase in T2 relaxometry for the ipsilateral hippocampus exclusively in patients with seizures. The longitudinal increase of T2 signal in patients with seizures suggests the existence of an interaction between ongoing seizures and the underlying pathology, causing progressive damage to the hippocampus. The identification of elevated T2 relaxometry in asymptomatic relatives and in patients with normal MRI suggests that genetic factors may be involved in the development of some mild hippocampal abnormalities in FMTLE.

Iis--integrated Interactome System: A Web-based Platform For The Annotation, Analysis And Visualization Of Protein-metabolite-gene-drug Interactions By Integrating A Variety Of Data Sources And Tools.

High-throughput screening of physical, genetic and chemical-genetic interactions brings important perspectives in the Systems Biology field, as the analysis of these interactions provides new insights into protein/gene function, cellular metabolic variations and the validation of therapeutic targets and drug design. However, such analysis depends on a pipeline connecting different tools that can automatically integrate data from diverse sources and result in a more comprehensive dataset that can be properly interpreted. We describe here the Integrated Interactome System (IIS), an integrative platform with a web-based interface for the annotation, analysis and visualization of the interaction profiles of proteins/genes, metabolites and drugs of interest. IIS works in four connected modules: (i) Submission module, which receives raw data derived from Sanger sequencing (e.g. two-hybrid system); (ii) Search module, which enables the user to search for the processed reads to be assembled into contigs/singlets, or for lists of proteins/genes, metabolites and drugs of interest, and add them to the project; (iii) Annotation module, which assigns annotations from several databases for the contigs/singlets or lists of proteins/genes, generating tables with automatic annotation that can be manually curated; and (iv) Interactome module, which maps the contigs/singlets or the uploaded lists to entries in our integrated database, building networks that gather novel identified interactions, protein and metabolite expression/concentration levels, subcellular localization and computed topological metrics, GO biological processes and KEGG pathways enrichment. This module generates a XGMML file that can be imported into Cytoscape or be visualized directly on the web. We have developed IIS by the integration of diverse databases following the need of appropriate tools for a systematic analysis of physical, genetic and chemical-genetic interactions. IIS was validated with yeast two-hybrid, proteomics and metabolomics datasets, but it is also extendable to other datasets. IIS is freely available online at: http://www.lge.ibi.unicamp.br/lnbio/IIS/.

Quantitative Proteomic Analysis Reveals Metabolic Alterations, Calcium Dysregulation, And Increased Expression Of Extracellular Matrix Proteins In Laminin α2 Chain-deficient Muscle.

Congenital muscular dystrophy with laminin α2 chain deficiency (MDC1A) is one of the most severe forms of muscular disease and is characterized by severe muscle weakness and delayed motor milestones. The genetic basis of MDC1A is well known, yet the secondary mechanisms ultimately leading to muscle degeneration and subsequent connective tissue infiltration are not fully understood. In order to obtain new insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying MDC1A, we performed a comparative proteomic analysis of affected muscles (diaphragm and gastrocnemius) from laminin α2 chain-deficient dy(3K)/dy(3K) mice, using multidimensional protein identification technology combined with tandem mass tags. Out of the approximately 700 identified proteins, 113 and 101 proteins, respectively, were differentially expressed in the diseased gastrocnemius and diaphragm muscles compared with normal muscles. A large portion of these proteins are involved in different metabolic processes, bind calcium, or are expressed in the extracellular matrix. Our findings suggest that metabolic alterations and calcium dysregulation could be novel mechanisms that underlie MDC1A and might be targets that should be explored for therapy. Also, detailed knowledge of the composition of fibrotic tissue, rich in extracellular matrix proteins, in laminin α2 chain-deficient muscle might help in the design of future anti-fibrotic treatments. All MS data have been deposited in the ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD000978 (http://proteomecentral.proteomexchange.org/dataset/PXD000978).

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

De Novo Assembly And Transcriptome Analysis Of The Rubber Tree (hevea Brasiliensis) And Snp Markers Development For Rubber Biosynthesis Pathways.

Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. Ex Adr. Juss.) Muell.-Arg. is the primary source of natural rubber that is native to the Amazon rainforest. The singular properties of natural rubber make it superior to and competitive with synthetic rubber for use in several applications. Here, we performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of H. brasiliensis bark on the Illumina GAIIx platform, which generated 179,326,804 raw reads on the Illumina GAIIx platform. A total of 50,384 contigs that were over 400 bp in size were obtained and subjected to further analyses. A similarity search against the non-redundant (nr) protein database returned 32,018 (63%) positive BLASTx hits. The transcriptome analysis was annotated using the clusters of orthologous groups (COG), gene ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Pfam databases. A search for putative molecular marker was performed to identify simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). In total, 17,927 SSRs and 404,114 SNPs were detected. Finally, we selected sequences that were identified as belonging to the mevalonate (MVA) and 2-C-methyl-D-erythritol 4-phosphate (MEP) pathways, which are involved in rubber biosynthesis, to validate the SNP markers. A total of 78 SNPs were validated in 36 genotypes of H. brasiliensis. This new dataset represents a powerful information source for rubber tree bark genes and will be an important tool for the development of microsatellites and SNP markers for use in future genetic analyses such as genetic linkage mapping, quantitative trait loci identification, investigations of linkage disequilibrium and marker-assisted selection.

Cluster Analysis To Identify Elderly People's Profiles: A Healthcare Strategy Based On Frailty Characteristics.

The new social panorama resulting from aging of the Brazilian population is leading to significant transformations within healthcare. Through the cluster analysis strategy, it was sought to describe the specific care demands of the elderly population, using frailty components. Cross-sectional study based on reviewing medical records, conducted in the geriatric outpatient clinic, Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Ninety-eight elderly users of this clinic were evaluated using cluster analysis and instruments for assessing their overall geriatric status and frailty characteristics. The variables that most strongly influenced the formation of clusters were age, functional capacities, cognitive capacity, presence of comorbidities and number of medications used. Three main groups of elderly people could be identified: one with good cognitive and functional performance but with high prevalence of comorbidities (mean age 77.9 years, cognitive impairment in 28.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities); a second with more advanced age, greater cognitive impairment and greater dependence (mean age 88.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 84.6% and mean of 7.1 comorbidities); and a third younger group with poor cognitive performance and greater number of comorbidities but functionally independent (mean age 78.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 89.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities). These data characterize the profile of this population and can be used as the basis for developing efficient strategies aimed at diminishing functional dependence, poor self-rated health and impaired quality of life.

High-throughput Analysis By Sp-ldi-ms For Fast Identification Of Adulterations In Commercial Balsamic Vinegars.

Balsamic vinegar (BV) is a typical and valuable Italian product, worldwide appreciated thanks to its characteristic flavors and potential health benefits. Several studies have been conducted to assess physicochemical and microbial compositions of BV, as well as its beneficial properties. Due to highly-disseminated claims of antioxidant, antihypertensive and antiglycemic properties, BV is a known target for frauds and adulterations. For that matter, product authentication, certifying its origin (region or country) and thus the processing conditions, is becoming a growing concern. Striving for fraud reduction as well as quality and safety assurance, reliable analytical strategies to rapidly evaluate BV quality are very interesting, also from an economical point of view. This work employs silica plate laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (SP-LDI-MS) for fast chemical profiling of commercial BV samples with protected geographical indication (PGI) and identification of its adulterated samples with low-priced vinegars, namely apple, alcohol and red/white wines.