Indigenous fodder trees can increase grazing accessibility for landless and mobile pastoralists in northern Pakistan

Degraded hillsides in Northern Pakistan are rehabilitated through social forestry campaigns using fast growing exotic trees. These plantations on former scrublands curtail access by livestock owned by landless pastoralists and create social tension. This study proposes an alternative strategy of planting indigenous fodder trees and shrubs that are well-suited to the local socio-ecological characteristics and can benefit all social segments. The choice of fodder tree species, their nutritional value and distribution within the complex socio-ecological system is explained. This study also explores the suitability of these trees at different elevations, sites and transhumant routes. Providing mobile herders with adequate fodder trees could relax social tensions and complement food security.

On seeing the trees and the forest: Single-signal and multisignal analysis of periictal intracranial EEG

Epileptic seizures are associated with a dysregulation of electrical brain activity on many different spatial scales. To better understand the dynamics of epileptic seizures, that is, how the seizures initiate, propagate, and terminate, it is important to consider changes of electrical brain activity on different spatial scales. Herein we set out to analyze periictal electrical brain activity on comparatively small and large spatial scales by assessing changes in single intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) signals and of averaged interdependences of pairs of EEG signals.

Seed fate and seedling dynamics after masting in two African rain forest trees

How the effects of biotic factors are moderated by abiotic factors, and their consequences for species interactions, is generally understudied in ecology. A key abiotic feature of forests is regular canopy disturbances that create temporary patches, or “gaps,” of above-average light availability. Co-occurring in lowland primary forest of Korup National Park (Cameroon), Microberlinia bisulcata and Tetraberlinia bifoliolata are locally dominant, ectomycorrhizal trees whose seeds share predator guilds in masting years. Here, we experimentally tested the impact of small mammal predators upon seedling abundance, growth, and survivorship. In 2007, we added a fixed density of seeds of each species to exclosures at 48 gap–understory locations across 82.5 ha within a large Microberlinia grove, and at 15 locations outside it. For both species, small mammals removed more seeds in gaps than in understory, whereas this was reversed for seeds killed by invertebrates. Nonetheless, Microberlinia lost twice as many seeds to small mammals, and more to invertebrates in exclosures, than Tetraberlinia, which was more prone to a pathogenic white fungus. After six weeks, both species had greater seedling establishment in gaps than understory, and in exclosures outside compared to exclosures inside the grove. In the subsequent two-year period, seedling growth and survivorship peaked in exclosures in gaps, but Microberlinia had more seedlings' stems clipped by animals than Tetraberlinia, and more than twice the percentage of leaf area damaged. Whereas Microberlinia seedling performance in gaps was inferior to Tetraberlinia inside the grove, outside it Microberlinia had reduced leaf damage, grew taller, and had many more leaves than Tetraberlinia. No evidence was found for “apparent mutualism” in the understory as seedling establishment of both species increased away from (>25 m) large stems of either species, pointing to “apparent competition” instead. In gaps, Microberlinia seedling establishment was lower near Tetraberlinia than conspecific adults because of context-dependent small mammal satiation. Stage-matrix analysis suggested that protecting Microberlinia from small mammals could increase its population growth rate by 0.06. In the light of prior research we conclude that small mammals and canopy gaps play an important role in promoting species coexistence in this forest, and that their strong interaction contributes to Microberlinia's currently very poor regeneration.

TRIO LOGIC REGRESSION - DETECTION OF SNP - SNP INTERACTIONS IN CASE-PARENT TRIOS

Statistical approaches to evaluate higher order SNP-SNP and SNP-environment interactions are critical in genetic association studies, as susceptibility to complex disease is likely to be related to the interaction of multiple SNPs and environmental factors. Logic regression (Kooperberg et al., 2001; Ruczinski et al., 2003) is one such approach, where interactions between SNPs and environmental variables are assessed in a regression framework, and interactions become part of the model search space. In this manuscript we extend the logic regression methodology, originally developed for cohort and case-control studies, for studies of trios with affected probands. Trio logic regression accounts for the linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure in the genotype data, and accommodates missing genotypes via haplotype-based imputation. We also derive an efficient algorithm to simulate case-parent trios where genetic risk is determined via epistatic interactions.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.