Conditional volatility and firm size:an empirical analysis of UK equity portfolios

The techniques and insights from two distinct areas of financial economic modelling are combined to provide evidence of the influence of firm size on the volatility of stock portfolio returns. Portfolio returns are characterized by positive serial correlation induced by the varying levels of non-synchronous trading among the component stocks. This serial correlation is greatest for portfolios of small firms. The conditional volatility of stock returns has been shown to be well represented by the GARCH family of statistical processes. Using a GARCH model of the variance of capitalization-based portfolio returns, conditioned on the autocorrelation structure in the conditional mean, striking differences related to firm size are uncovered.

The spatial patterns of Lewy bodies, senile plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles in dementia with Lewy bodies

The spatial patterns of Lewy bodies (LB), senile plaques (SP), and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were studied in ubiquitin-stained sections of the temporal lobe in cases of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), which varied in the degree of associated Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology. In all patients, LB, SP, and NFT developed in clusters and in a significant proportion of brain areas, the clusters exhibited a regular periodicity parallel to the tissue boundary. In the lateral occipitotemporal gyrus (LOT) and parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), the clusters of LB were larger than those of the SP and NFT but in the hippocampus, clusters of the three lesions were of similar size. Mean cluster size of the LB, SP, and NFT was similar in cases of DLB with and without significant associated AD pathology. LB density was positively correlated with SP and NFT density in 42 and 17% of brain areas analyzed, respectively, while SP and NFT densities were positively correlated in 7% of brain areas. The data suggest that LB in DLB exhibit similar spatial patterns to SP and NFT in AD and that SP and NFT exhibit similar spatial patterns in DLB and AD. In addition, in some instances, clusters of LB appeared to be more closely related spatially to the clusters of SP than to NFT.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in elderly non-demented patients and patients with Alzheimer’s disease

The spatial patterns of diffuse, primitive, classic and compact beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits were studied in the medial temporal lobe in 14 elderly, non-demented patients (ND) and in nine patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In both patient groups, Abeta deposits were clustered and in a number of tissues, a regular periodicity of Abeta deposit clusters was observed parallel to the tissue boundary. The primitive deposit clusters were significantly larger in the AD cases but there were no differences in the sizes of the diffuse and classic deposit clusters between patient groups. In AD, the relationship between Abeta deposit cluster size and density in the tissue was non-linear. This suggested that cluster size increased with increasing Abeta deposit density in some tissues while in others, Abeta deposit density was high but contained within smaller clusters. It was concluded that the formation of large clusters of primitive deposits could be a factor in the development of AD.

A statistical method for the identification and aggregation of regional linguistic variation

This paper introduces a method for the analysis of regional linguistic variation. The method identifies individual and common patterns of spatial clustering in a set of linguistic variables measured over a set of locations based on a combination of three statistical techniques: spatial autocorrelation, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. To demonstrate how to apply this method, it is used to analyze regional variation in the values of 40 continuously measured, high-frequency lexical alternation variables in a 26-million-word corpus of letters to the editor representing 206 cities from across the United States.

An appraisal of employment problems and policies at the micro-economic level

This study has concentrated on the development of an impact simulation model for use at the sub-national level. The necessity for the development of this model was demonstrated by the growth of local economic initiatives during the 1970's, and the lack of monitoring and evaluation exercise to assess their success and cost-effectiveness. The first stage of research involved the confirmation that the potential for micro-economic and spatial initiatives existed. This was done by identifying the existence of involuntary structural unemployment. The second stage examined the range of employment policy options from the macroeconomic, micro-economic and spatial perspectives, and focused on the need for evaluation of those policies. The need for spatial impact evaluation exercise in respect of other exogenous shocks, and structural changes was also recognised. The final stage involved the investigation of current techniques of evaluation and their adaptation for the purpose in hand. This led to a recognition of a gap in the armoury of techniques. The employment-dependency model has been developed to fill that gap, providing a low-budget model, capable of implementation at the small area level and generating a vast array of industrially disaggregate data, in terms of employment, employment-income, profits, value-added and gross income, related to levels of United Kingdom final demand. Thus providing scope for a variety of impact simulation exercises.

The size frequency distributions of beta-amyloid deposit subtypes in Alzheimer's disease

The size frequency distributions of diffuse, primitive and classic beta/A4 deposits was studied in single sections in the hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) and lateral occipitotemporal gyrus (LOT) in five cases of Alzheimer's disease. In most brain regions, the size distribution of the diffuse deposits was significantly different from that of the primitive and classic deposits. The data suggested that larger diffuse deposits appeared to be converted less often into primitive and classic deposits. Significant differences in the size distribution of primitive deposits were commonly observed between brain regions in which there was no difference in the size distribution of the diffuse deposits. Hence, local brain factors may influence the size of diffuse deposit which can be converted into mature amyloid deposit.

Size frequency distributions of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits:a comparative study of four neurodegenerative disorders

Deposition of ß-amyloid (Aß ), a 'signature' pathological lesion of Alzheimer's disease (AD), is also characteristic of Down's syndrome (DS), and has been observed in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and corticobasal degeneration (CBD). To determine whether the growth of Aß deposits was similar in these disorders, the size frequency distributions of the diffuse ('pre-amyloid'), primitive ('neuritic'), and classic ('dense-cored') A ß deposits were compared in AD, DS, DLB, and CBD. All size distributions had essentially the same shape, i.e., they were unimodal and positively skewed. Mean size of Aß deposits, however, varied between disorders. Mean diameters of the diffuse, primitive, and classic deposits were greatest in DS, DS and CBD, and DS, respectively, while the smallest deposits, on average, were recorded in DLB. Although the shape of the frequency distributions was approximately log-normal, the model underestimated the frequency of smaller deposits and overestimated the frequency of larger deposits in all disorders. A 'power-law' model fitted the size distributions of the primitive deposits in AD, DS, and DLB, and the diffuse deposits in AD. The data suggest: (1) similarities in size distributions of Aß deposits among disorders, (2) growth of deposits varies with subtype and disorder, (3) different factors are involved in the growth of the diffuse/primitive and classic deposits, and (4) log-normal and power-law models do not completely account for the size frequency distributions.

Mach bands and multiscale models of spatial vision:the role of first, second, and third derivative operators in encoding bars and edges

Ernst Mach observed that light or dark bands could be seen at abrupt changes of luminance gradient in the absence of peaks or troughs in luminance. Many models of feature detection share the idea that bars, lines, and Mach bands are found at peaks and troughs in the output of even-symmetric spatial filters. Our experiments assessed the appearance of Mach bands (position and width) and the probability of seeing them on a novel set of generalized Gaussian edges. Mach band probability was mainly determined by the shape of the luminance profile and increased with the sharpness of its corners, controlled by a single parameter (n). Doubling or halving the size of the images had no significant effect. Variations in contrast (20%-80%) and duration (50-300 ms) had relatively minor effects. These results rule out the idea that Mach bands depend simply on the amplitude of the second derivative, but a multiscale model, based on Gaussian-smoothed first- and second-derivative filtering, can account accurately for the probability and perceived spatial layout of the bands. A key idea is that Mach band visibility depends on the ratio of second- to first-derivative responses at peaks in the second-derivative scale-space map. This ratio is approximately scale-invariant and increases with the sharpness of the corners of the luminance ramp, as observed. The edges of Mach bands pose a surprisingly difficult challenge for models of edge detection, but a nonlinear third-derivative operation is shown to predict the locations of Mach band edges strikingly well. Mach bands thus shed new light on the role of multiscale filtering systems in feature coding. © 2012 ARVO.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

A statistical comparison of regional phonetic and lexical variation in American English

This paper presents a statistical comparison of regional phonetic and lexical variation in American English. Both the phonetic and lexical datasets were first subjected to separate multivariate spatial analyses in order to identify the most common dimensions of spatial clustering in these two datasets. The dimensions of phonetic and lexical variation extracted by these two analyses were then correlated with each other, after being interpolated over a shared set of reference locations, in order to measure the similarity of regional phonetic and lexical variation in American English. This analysis shows that regional phonetic and lexical variation are remarkably similar in Modern American English.

Effects of grain size and microstructure on threshold values and near threshold crack growth in powder-formed Ni-base superalloy

Threshold stress intensity values, ranging from ∼6 to 16 MN m −3/2 can be obtained in powder-formed Nimonic AP1 by changing the microstructure. The threshold and low crack growth rate behaviour at room temperature of a number of widely differing API microstructures, with both ‘necklace’ and fully recrystallized grain structures of various sizes and uniform and bimodal γ′-distributions, have been investigated. The results indicate that grain size is an important microstructural parameter which can control threshold behaviour, with the value of threshold stress intensity increasing with increasing grain size, but that the γ′-distribution is also important. In this Ni-base alloy, as in many others, near threshold fatigue crack growth occurs in a crystallographic manner along {111} planes. This is due to the development of a dislocation structure involving persistent slip bands on {111} planes in the plastic zone, caused by the presence of ordered shearable precipitates in the microstructure. However, as the stress intensity range is increased, a striated growth mode takes over. The results presented show that this transition from faceted to striated growth is associated with a sudden increase in crack propagation rate and occurs when the size of the reverse plastic zone at the crack tip becomes equal to the grain size, independent of any other microstructural variables.

Innovation, networking and globalisation:the role of regional innovation systems in the global innovation process

In the global economy, innovation is one of the most important competitive assets for companies willing to compete in international markets. As competition moves from standardised products to customised ones, depending on each specific market needs, economies of scale are not anymore the only winning strategy. Innovation requires firms to establish processes to acquire and absorb new knowledge, leading to the recent theory of Open Innovation. Knowledge sharing and acquisition happens when firms are embedded in networks with other firms, university, institutions and many other economic actors. Several typologies of innovation and firm networks have been identified, with various geographical spans. One of the first being modelled was the Industrial Cluster (or in Italian Distretto Industriale) which was for long considered the benchmark for innovation and economic development. Other kind of networks have been modelled since the late 1970s; Regional Innovation Systems represent one of the latest and more diffuse model of innovation networks, specifically introduced to combine local networks and the global economy. This model was qualitatively exploited since its introduction, but, together with National Innovation Systems, is among the most inspiring for policy makers and is often cited by them, not always properly. The aim of this research is to setup an econometric model describing Regional Innovation Systems, becoming one the first attempts to test and enhance this theory with a quantitative approach. A dataset of 104 secondary and primary data from European regions was built in order to run a multiple linear regression, testing if Regional Innovation Systems are really correlated to regional innovation and regional innovation in cooperation with foreign partners. Furthermore, an exploratory multiple linear regression was performed to verify which variables, among those describing a Regional Innovation Systems, are the most significant for innovating, alone or with foreign partners. Furthermore, the effectiveness of present innovation policies has been tested based on the findings of the econometric model. The developed model confirmed the role of Regional Innovation Systems for creating innovation even in cooperation with international partners: this represents one of the firsts quantitative confirmation of a theory previously based on qualitative models only. Furthermore the results of this model confirmed a minor influence of National Innovation Systems: comparing the analysis of existing innovation policies, both at regional and national level, to our findings, emerged the need for potential a pivotal change in the direction currently followed by policy makers. Last, while confirming the role of the presence a learning environment in a region and the catalyst role of regional administration, this research offers a potential new perspective for the whole private sector in creating a Regional Innovation System.

The spatial patterns of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in late-onset sporadic Alzheimer's disease

The spatial patterns of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were studied in areas of the cerebral cortex in 16 patients with the late-onset, sporadic form of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Diffuse, primitive, and classic Aβ deposits and NFT were aggregated into clusters; the clusters being regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater in many areas. In a significant proportion of regions, the sizes of the regularly distributed clusters approximated to those of the cells of origin of the cortico-cortical projections. The diffuse and primitive Aβ deposits exhibited a similar range of spatial patterns but the classic Aβ deposits occurred less frequently in large clusters >6400m. In addition, the NFT often occurred in larger regularly distributed clusters than the Aβ deposits. The location, size, and distribution of the clusters of Aβ deposits and NFT supports the hypothesis that AD is a 'disconnection syndrome' in which degeneration of specific cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways results in synaptic disconnection and the formation of clusters of NFT and Aβ deposits. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

A rendszerváltás után alapított és nemzetközileg sikeressé vált magyar vállalatok versenyképessége = The competitiveness of Hungarian companies that were founded and became successful internationally after the change of the economic system

A műhelytanulmány annak a kutatási munkának az első eredménye, amelyben a rendszerváltás után nemzetközileg sikeressé vált magyar vállalatok sikertényezőinek elemzését tűztük ki célul. A kérdés jelentőségét abban látjuk, hogy a magyar piac korlátozott belső nagysága miatt a sikeres magyar vállalatok számára a külföldön való terjeszkedés megkerülhetetlen stratégiai követelmény. A mélyinterjúkon alapuló kutatáshoz szakirodalmi áttekintést végeztünk, összeállítottuk kutatási propozíciónkat, kidolgoztuk a mélyinterjúknál használandó kérdéslistát. Ez a műhelytanulmány az első két mélyinterjú anyagát tartalmazza, de kidolgozás és előkészítés alatt vannak további vállalati esettanulmányok is. ----- This working paper presents the first results of our research project aiming to analyze the success factors of Hungarian companies that became successful internationally after the change in the economic system in Hungary. We believe this is a significant topic as international expansion for successful Hungarian companies is a strategic requirement, due to the limited size of domestic markets. Our research is methodologically based on in-depth interviews, backed by literature review. We have developed propositions and an outline for semi-structured interviews. This working paper covers the recorded material of two in-depth interviews of executives from two different companies, while additional case studies are still being prepared.