Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.

Evaluating retraining rules for semi-supervised learning in neural network based cursive word recognition

Training a system to recognize handwritten words is a task that requires a large amount of data with their correct transcription. However, the creation of such a training set, including the generation of the ground truth, is tedious and costly. One way of reducing the high cost of labeled training data acquisition is to exploit unlabeled data, which can be gathered easily. Making use of both labeled and unlabeled data is known as semi-supervised learning. One of the most general versions of semi-supervised learning is self-training, where a recognizer iteratively retrains itself on its own output on new, unlabeled data. In this paper we propose to apply semi-supervised learning, and in particular self-training, to the problem of cursive, handwritten word recognition. The special focus of the paper is on retraining rules that define what data are actually being used in the retraining phase. In a series of experiments it is shown that the performance of a neural network based recognizer can be significantly improved through the use of unlabeled data and self-training if appropriate retraining rules are applied.

Semi-Automated Creation of Converged iTV Services: From Macromedia Director Simulations to Services Ready for Broadcast

While sound and video may capture viewers' attention, interaction can captivate them. This has not been available prior to the advent of Digital Television. In fact, what lies at the heart of the Digital Television revolution is this new type of interactive content, offered in the form of interactive Television (iTV) services. On top of that, the new world of converged networks has created a demand for a new type of converged services on a range of mobile terminals (Tablet PCs, PDAs and mobile phones). This paper aims at presenting a new approach to service creation that allows for the semi-automatic translation of simulations and rapid prototypes created in the accessible desktop multimedia authoring package Macromedia Director into services ready for broadcast. This is achieved by a series of tools that de-skill and speed-up the process of creating digital TV user interfaces (UI) and applications for mobile terminals. The benefits of rapid prototyping are essential for the production of these new types of services, and are therefore discussed in the first section of this paper. In the following sections, an overview of the operation of content, service, creation and management sub-systems is presented, which illustrates why these tools compose an important and integral part of a system responsible of creating, delivering and managing converged broadcast and telecommunications services. The next section examines a number of metadata languages candidates for describing the iTV services user interface and the schema language adopted in this project. A detailed description of the operation of the two tools is provided to offer an insight of how they can be used to de-skill and speed-up the process of creating digital TV user interfaces and applications for mobile terminals. Finally, representative broadcast oriented and telecommunication oriented converged service components are also introduced, demonstrating how these tools have been used to generate different types of services.

How to Improve the Production Process for interactive TV with semi-formal Methods

The central question for this paper is how to improve the production process by closing the gap between industrial designers and software engineers of television(TV)-based User Interfaces (UI) in an industrial environment. Software engineers are highly interested whether one UI design can be converted into several fully functional UIs for TV products with different screen properties. The aim of the software engineers is to apply automatic layout and scaling in order to speed up and improve the production process. However, the question is whether a UI design lends itself for such automatic layout and scaling. This is investigated by analysing a prototype UI design done by industrial designers. In a first requirements study, industrial designers had created meta-annotations on top of their UI design in order to disclose their design rationale for discussions with software engineers. In a second study, five (out of ten) industrial designers assessed the potential of four different meta-annotation approaches. The question was which annotation method industrial designers would prefer and whether it could satisfy the technical requirements of the software engineering process. One main result is that the industrial designers preferred the method they were already familiar with, which therefore seems to be the most effective one although the main objective of automatic layout and scaling could still not be achieved.

How do subordinate and dominant species in semi-natural mountain grasslands relate to productivity and land-use change?

Changes in agricultural practices of semi-natural mountain grasslands are expected to modify plant community structure and shift dominance patterns. Using vegetation surveys of 11 sites in semi-natural grasslands of the Swiss Jura and Swiss and French Alps, we determined the relative contribution of dominant, subordinate and transient plant species in grazed and abandoned communities and observed their changes along a gradient of productivity and in response to abandonment of pasturing. The results confirm the humpbacked diversity–productivity relationship in semi-natural grassland, which is due to the increase of subordinate species number at intermediate productivity levels. Grazed communities, at the lower or higher end of the species diversity gradient, suffered higher species loss after grazing abandonment. Species loss after abandonment of pasturing was mainly due to a higher reduction in the number of subordinate species, as a consequence of the increasing proportion of dominant species. When plant biodiversity maintenance is the aim, our results have direct implications for the way grasslands should be managed. Indeed, while intensification and abandonment have been accelerated since few decades, our findings in this multi-site analysis confirm the importance of maintaining intermediate levels of pasturing to preserve biodiversity.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs. semi-major axis

Context. Planet formation models have been developed during the past years to try to reproduce what has been observed of both the solar system and the extrasolar planets. Some of these models have partially succeeded, but they focus on massive planets and, for the sake of simplicity, exclude planets belonging to planetary systems. However, more and more planets are now found in planetary systems. This tendency, which is a result of radial velocity, transit, and direct imaging surveys, seems to be even more pronounced for low-mass planets. These new observations require improving planet formation models, including new physics, and considering the formation of systems. Aims: In a recent series of papers, we have presented some improvements in the physics of our models, focussing in particular on the internal structure of forming planets, and on the computation of the excitation state of planetesimals and their resulting accretion rate. In this paper, we focus on the concurrent effect of the formation of more than one planet in the same protoplanetary disc and show the effect, in terms of architecture and composition of this multiplicity. Methods: We used an N-body calculation including collision detection to compute the orbital evolution of a planetary system. Moreover, we describe the effect of competition for accretion of gas and solids, as well as the effect of gravitational interactions between planets. Results: We show that the masses and semi-major axes of planets are modified by both the effect of competition and gravitational interactions. We also present the effect of the assumed number of forming planets in the same system (a free parameter of the model), as well as the effect of the inclination and eccentricity damping. We find that the fraction of ejected planets increases from nearly 0 to 8% as we change the number of embryos we seed the system with from 2 to 20 planetary embryos. Moreover, our calculations show that, when considering planets more massive than ~5 M⊕, simulations with 10 or 20 planetary embryos statistically give the same results in terms of mass function and period distribution.

Water quality and health in a Sahelian semi-arid urban context: an integrated geographical approach in Nouakchott, Mauritania

Access to sufficient quantities of safe drinking water is a human right. Moreover, access to clean water is of public health relevance, particularly in semi-arid and Sahelian cities due to the risks of water contamination and transmission of water-borne diseases. We conducted a study in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to deepen the understanding of diarrhoeal incidence in space and time. We used an integrated geographical approach, combining socio-environmental, microbiological and epidemiological data from various sources, including spatially explicit surveys, laboratory analysis of water samples and reported diarrhoeal episodes. A geospatial technique was applied to determine the environmental and microbiological risk factors that govern diarrhoeal transmission. Statistical and cartographic analyses revealed concentration of unimproved sources of drinking water in the most densely populated areas of the city, coupled with a daily water allocation below the recommended standard of 20 l per person. Bacteriological analysis indicated that 93% of the non-piped water sources supplied at water points were contaminated with 10-80 coliform bacteria per 100 ml. Diarrhoea was the second most important disease reported at health centres, accounting for 12.8% of health care service consultations on average. Diarrhoeal episodes were concentrated in municipalities with the largest number of contaminated water sources. Environmental factors (e.g. lack of improved water sources) and bacteriological aspects (e.g. water contamination with coliform bacteria) are the main drivers explaining the spatio-temporal distribution of diarrhoea. We conclude that integrating environmental, microbiological and epidemiological variables with statistical regression models facilitates risk profiling of diarrhoeal diseases. Modes of water supply and water contamination were the main drivers of diarrhoea in this semi-arid urban context of Nouakchott, and hence require a strategy to improve water quality at the various levels of the supply chain.

Grazing response patterns indicate isolation of semi-natural European grasslands

Identifying drivers of species diversity is a major challenge in understanding and predicting the dynamics of species-rich semi-natural grasslands. In particular in temperate grasslands changes in land use and its consequences, i.e. increasing fragmentation, the on-going loss of habitat and the declining importance of regional processes such as seed dispersal by livestock, are considered key drivers of the diversity loss witnessed within the last decades. It is a largely unresolved question to what degree current temperate grassland communities already reflect a decline of regional processes such as longer distance seed dispersal. Answering this question is challenging since it requires both a mechanistic approach to community dynamics and a sufficient data basis that allows identifying general patterns. Here, we present results of a local individual- and trait-based community model that was initialized with plant functional types (PFTs) derived from an extensive empirical data set of species-rich grasslands within the `Biodiversity Exploratories' in Germany. Driving model processes included above- and belowground competition, dynamic resource allocation to shoots and roots, clonal growth, grazing, and local seed dispersal. To test for the impact of regional processes we also simulated seed input from a regional species pool. Model output, with and without regional seed input, was compared with empirical community response patterns along a grazing gradient. Simulated response patterns of changes in PFT richness, Shannon diversity, and biomass production matched observed grazing response patterns surprisingly well if only local processes were considered. Already low levels of additional regional seed input led to stronger deviations from empirical community pattern. While these findings cannot rule out that regional processes other than those considered in the modeling study potentially play a role in shaping the local grassland communities, our comparison indicates that European grasslands are largely isolated, i.e. local mechanisms explain observed community patterns to a large extent.