Reduction in Northward Incursions of the South Asian Monsoon Since ~1400 AD Inferred from a Mt. Everest Ice Core

A highly resolved Mt. Everest ice core reveals a decrease in marine and increase in continental air masses related to relatively high summer surface pressure over Mongolia, and reduction in northward incursions of the summer South Asian monsoon since similar to 1400 AD. Previously published proxy records from lower sites south of the Himalayas indicate strengthening of the monsoon since this time. These regional differences are consistent with a south north seesaw in convective activity in the Asian monsoon region, and reflect a southward shift in the mean summer position of the monsoon trough since similar to 1400 AD. The change in monsoonal circulation at 1400 AD is synchronous with a reduction in solar irradiance and the onset of the LIA. This demonstrates a hemispheric scale circulation reorganization at this time, and the potential for future large shifts in monsoonal circulation.

An Aquaculture-Based Method for Calibrated Bivalve Isotope Paleothermometry

To quantify species- specific relationships between bivalve carbonate isotope geochemistry ( delta O-18(c)) and water conditions ( temperature and salinity, related to water isotopic composition [delta O-18(w)]), an aquaculture-based methodology was developed and applied to Mytilus edulis ( blue mussel). The four- by- three factorial design consisted of four circulating temperature baths ( 7, 11, 15, and 19 degrees C) and three salinity ranges ( 23, 28, and 32 parts per thousand ( ppt); monitored for delta O-18(w) weekly). In mid- July of 2003, 4800 juvenile mussels were collected in Salt Bay, Damariscotta, Maine, and were placed in each configuration. The size distribution of harvested mussels, based on 105 specimens, ranged from 10.9 mm to 29.5 mm with a mean size of 19.8 mm. The mussels were grown in controlled conditions for up to 8.5 months, and a paleotemperature relationship based on juvenile M. edulis from Maine was developed from animals harvested at months 4, 5, and 8.5. This relationship [ T degrees C = 16.19 (+/- 0.14) - 4.69 (+/- 0.21) {delta O-18(c) VPBD - delta O-18(w) VSMOW} + 0.17 (+/- 0.13) {delta O-18(c) VPBD - delta O-18(w) VSMOW}(2); r(2) = 0.99; N = 105; P < 0.0001] is nearly identical to the Kim and O'Neil ( 1997) abiogenic calcite equation over the entire temperature range ( 7 - 19 degrees C), and it closely resembles the commonly used paleotemperature equations of Epstein et al. ( 1953) and Horibe and Oba ( 1972). Further, the comparison of the M. edulis paleotemperature equation with the Kim and O'Neil ( 1997) equilibrium- based equation indicates that M. edulis specimens used in this study precipitated their shell in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water within the experimental uncertainties of both studies. The aquaculture- based methodology described here allows similar species- specific isotope paleothermometer calibrations to be performed with other bivalve species and thus provides improved quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

The Polar Expression of ENSO and Sea-Ice Variability as Recorded in a South Pole Ice Core

An annually dated ice core recovered from South Pole (2850 in a.s.l.) in 1995, that covers the period 1487-1992, was analyzed for the marine biogenic sulfur species methanesulfonate (MS). Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to calibrate the high-resolution MS series with associated environmental series for the period of overlap (1973-92). Utilizing this calibration we present a similar to500 year long proxy record of the polar expression of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and southeastern Pacific sea-ice extent variations. These records reveal short-term periods of increased (1800-50, 1900-40) and decreased sea-ice extent (1550-1610., 1660-1710, 1760-1800). In general, increased (decreased) sea-ice extent is associated with a higher (lower) frequency of El Nino events.

Polar MM5 Simulations of the Winter Climate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at the LGM

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Experimental Determination of Salinity, Temperature, Growth, and Metabolic Effects on Shell Isotope Chemistry of Mytilus Edulis Collected from Maine and Greenland

To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/ genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T degrees C = 16.28 (+/- 0.10) -4.57 (+/- 0.15) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW} + 0.06 (+/- 0.06) {delta(18)O(c) VPBD - delta(18)O(w) VSMOW}(2); r(2) = 0.99; N = 323; p < 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O'Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (delta(18)O(calcite)) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (delta(13)C(calcite)) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and delta(13)C(calcite) disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in delta(18)O(calcite) based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect delta(18)O(calcite) in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

Higher Risk of Incident HCV-Coinfections in MSM with a Wide HIV Transmission Bottleneck

BACKGROUND  High-risk sexual behaviors have been suggested as drivers of the recent dramatic increase of sexually-transmitted HCV among HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS  We assessed the association between the HIV-transmission-bottleneck and the prevalence and incidence of HCV-coinfections in HIV-infected MSM from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study(SHCS). As a proxy for the width of the transmission bottleneck we used the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in Genotypic-Resistance-Tests(GRTs) from recent HIV-infections. We defined a broad bottleneck as a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides exceeding a previously-established threshold(0.5%). RESULTS  From the SHCS, we identified 671 MSMs with available HCV-serologies and with a HIV-GRT sampled during recent infection. Of those, 161(24.0%) exhibited a broad HIV-transmission-bottleneck, 38(5.7%) had at least one positive HCV test, and 26(3.9%) had an incident HCV infection. Individuals with broad HIV-transmission bottlenecks exhibited a twofold-higher odds of having ever experienced an HCV coinfection(OR[95%CI]=2.2[1.1, 4.3]) and a threefold-higher hazard of an incident HCV infection(HR[95%CI]= 3.0[1.4, 6.6]) than individuals with narrow HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. CONCLUSIONS  Our results indicate that the currently occurring sexual spread of HCV is focused on those MSMs that are prone to exhibit broad HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. This is consistent with an important role of high-risk behavior and mucosal-barrier-impairment in the transmission of HCV among MSM.

Dynamics of the last four glacial terminations recorded in Lake Van, Turkey

A well-dated suite of Lake Van climate-proxy data covering the last 360 ka documents environmental changes over 4 glacial/interglacial cycles in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. The picture of cold and dry glacials and warm and wet interglacials emerging from pollen, organic carbon, authigenic carbonate content, elemental profiling by XRF and lithological analyses is inconsistent with classical interpretation of ox- ygen isotopic composition of carbonates pointing to a more complex pattern in Lake Van region. Detailed analysis of glacial terminations allows for the constraining of a depositional model explaining different patterns observed in all the proxies. We hypothesize that variations in relative contribution of rainfall, snowmelt and glacier meltwater recharging the basin have a very important role for all sedimentary processes in Lake Van. Lake level of glacial Lake Van, predominantly fed by snowmelt, was low, the water column was oxic, and carbonates precipitating in the epilimnion recorded the light isotopic signature of inflow. During terminations, increasing rainfall and significant supply of mountain glaciers' meltwater contributed to lake level rise. Increased rainfall enhanced density gradients in the water column, and hindered mixing leading to development of bottom-water anoxia. Carbonates precipitating during terminations show large fluctuations in their isotopic composition. Full interglacial conditions in Lake Van are characterized by high or slowly falling lake level. Rainfall and snowmelt feed the lake but due to re-established mixing, the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates is heavier and closer to that of evaporation-influenced lake water than that of runoff representing snowmelt and atmospheric precipitation.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Provenance versus weathering control on the composition of tropical river mud (southern Africa)

This study presents an integrated mineralogical-geochemical data base on fine-grained sediments transported by all major rivers of southern Africa, including the Zambezi, Okavango, Limpopo, Olifants, Orange and Kunene. Clay mineralogy, bulk geochemistry, Sr and Nd isotopic signatures of river mud, considered as proxy of suspended load, are used to investigate the influence of source-rock lithology and weathering intensity on the composition of clay and silt produced in subequatorial to subtropical latitudes. Depletion in mobile alkali and alkaline-earth metals, minor in arid Namibia, is strong in the Okavango, Kwando and Upper Zambezi catchments, where recycling is also extensive. Element removal is most significant for Na, and to a lesser extent for Sr. Depletion in K, Ca and other elements, negligible in Namibia, is moderate elsewhere. The most widespread clay minerals are smectite, dominant in muds derived from Karoo or Etendeka flood basalts, or illite and chlorite, dominant in muds derived from metasedimentary rocks of the Damara Orogen or Zimbabwe Craton. Kaolinite represents 30-40% of clay minerals only in Okavango and Upper Zambezi sediments sourced in humid subequatorial Angola and Zambia. After subtracting the effects of recycling and of local accumulation of authigenic carbonates in soils, the regional distribution of clay minerals and chemical indices consistently reflect weathering intensity primarily controlled by climate. Bulk geochemistry identifies most clearly volcaniclastic sediments and mafic sources in general, but cannot discriminate the other sources of detritus in detail. Instead, Sr and Nd isotopic fingerprints are insensitive to weathering, and thus mirror faithfully the tectonic structure of the southern African continent. Isotopic tools thus represent a much firmer basis than bulk geochemistry or clay mineralogy in the provenance study of mudrocks.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Multiple tree-ring proxies (earlywood width, latewood width and δ13C) from pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), Hungary

The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of climatic factors (i.e. monthly mean temperature and total precipitation) on radial growth (earlywood width, latewood width, and total ringwidth) and on latewood stable carbon isotope composition in a pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L) stand in northeastern Hungary. Earlywood widths showed the weakest common variance and lack of statistically significant relationship to monthly precipitation and temperature. Latewood width showed the strongest common chronological signal. Correlation analysis with the monthly climate series pointed out the strongest positive/negative correlation with June precipitation for latewood width/stable carbon isotope ratio. These parameters shared the strongest climatic response also for seasonal scale since the highest correlation coefficients, 0.49 and -0.62 for latewood width and stable carbon isotope ratio, respectively, were obtained for both with a 10-month precipitation total (from previous November to current August of the growing season). A combined parameter, derived as difference between latewood width and stable carbon isotope indices showed improved statistical relationship compared to the hydroclimatic calibration target both for local and regional spatial scales. Spatial correlation analysis indicated that the hydroclimatic signal encoded in these moisture sensitive tree-ring parameters from Bakta Forest is expected to be representative for the northeastern Carpathians and for the large part of the Great Hungarian Plain. In addition, the hydroclimatic signal of latewood width chronology was compared to three independent records. Results showed that neither the strength nor the rank of the similarity of the local hydroclimate signals were stable throughout the past two centuries. Future palaeo(hydro)climatological efforts targeting the Carpathian(-Balkan) region are recommended to track carefully the spatial domains for which a given, local, proxy-derived hydroclimate reconstruction might provide useful information.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.