Climate change modelling and its roles to chinese crops yield

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out

Video stimuli reduce object-directed imitation accuracy: a novel two-person motion-tracking approach

Imitation is an important form of social behavior, and research has aimed to discover and explain the neural and kinematic aspects of imitation. However, much of this research has featured single participants imitating in response to pre-recorded video stimuli. This is in spite of findings that show reduced neural activation to video vs. real life movement stimuli, particularly in the motor cortex. We investigated the degree to which video stimuli may affect the imitation process using a novel motion tracking paradigm with high spatial and temporal resolution. We recorded 14 positions on the hands, arms, and heads of two individuals in an imitation experiment. One individual freely moved within given parameters (moving balls across a series of pegs) and a second participant imitated. This task was performed with either simple (one ball) or complex (three balls) movement difficulty, and either face-to-face or via a live video projection. After an exploratory analysis, three dependent variables were chosen for examination: 3D grip position, joint angles in the arm, and grip aperture. A cross-correlation and multivariate analysis revealed that object-directed imitation task accuracy (as represented by grip position) was reduced in video compared to face-to-face feedback, and in complex compared to simple difficulty. This was most prevalent in the left-right and forward-back motions, relevant to the imitator sitting face-to-face with the actor or with a live projected video of the same actor. The results suggest that for tasks which require object-directed imitation, video stimuli may not be an ecologically valid way to present task materials. However, no similar effects were found in the joint angle and grip aperture variables, suggesting that there are limits to the influence of video stimuli on imitation. The implications of these results are discussed with regards to previous findings, and with suggestions for future experimentation.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Optimal infinity-quasiconformal immersions

For a Hamiltonian K ∈ C2(RN × n) and a map u:Ω ⊆ Rn − → RN, we consider the supremal functional (1) The “Euler−Lagrange” PDE associated to (1)is the quasilinear system (2) Here KP is the derivative and [ KP ] ⊥ is the projection on its nullspace. (1)and (2)are the fundamental objects of vector-valued Calculus of Variations in L∞ and first arose in recent work of the author [N. Katzourakis, J. Differ. Eqs. 253 (2012) 2123–2139; Commun. Partial Differ. Eqs. 39 (2014) 2091–2124]. Herein we apply our results to Geometric Analysis by choosing as K the dilation function which measures the deviation of u from being conformal. Our main result is that appropriately defined minimisers of (1)solve (2). Hence, PDE methods can be used to study optimised quasiconformal maps. Nonconvexity of K and appearance of interfaces where [ KP ] ⊥ is discontinuous cause extra difficulties. When n = N, this approach has previously been followed by Capogna−Raich ? and relates to Teichmüller’s theory. In particular, we disprove a conjecture appearing therein.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.

Hydrodynamics with spin angular momentum from systematic coarse graining: a tutorial example

The derivation of time evolution equations for slow collective variables starting from a micro- scopic model system is demonstrated for the tutorial example of the classical, two-dimensional XY model. Projection operator techniques are used within a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework together with molecular simulations in order to establish the building blocks of the hydrodynamics equations: Poisson brackets that determine the deterministic drift, the driving forces from the macroscopic free energy and the friction matrix. The approach is rather general and can be applied for deriving the equations of slow variables for a broad variety of systems.

Kazakhstan: long-term economic growth and the role of the oil sector

This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.

Predicting spectral features in galaxy spectra from broad-band photometry

We explore the prospects of predicting emission-line features present in galaxy spectra given broad-band photometry alone. There is a general consent that colours, and spectral features, most notably the 4000 angstrom break, can predict many properties of galaxies, including star formation rates and hence they could infer some of the line properties. We argue that these techniques have great prospects in helping us understand line emission in extragalactic objects and might speed up future galaxy redshift surveys if they are to target emission-line objects only. We use two independent methods, Artificial Neural Networks (based on the ANNz code) and Locally Weighted Regression (LWR), to retrieve correlations present in the colour N-dimensional space and to predict the equivalent widths present in the corresponding spectra. We also investigate how well it is possible to separate galaxies with and without lines from broad-band photometry only. We find, unsurprisingly, that recombination lines can be well predicted by galaxy colours. However, among collisional lines some can and some cannot be predicted well from galaxy colours alone, without any further redshift information. We also use our techniques to estimate how much information contained in spectral diagnostic diagrams can be recovered from broad-band photometry alone. We find that it is possible to classify active galactic nuclei and star formation objects relatively well using colours only. We suggest that this technique could be used to considerably improve redshift surveys such as the upcoming Fibre Multi Object Spectrograph (FMOS) survey and the planned Wide Field Multi Object Spectrograph (WFMOS) survey.

Gas streaming motions towards the nucleus of M81

We present two-dimensional stellar and gaseous kinematics of the inner 120 x 250 pc2 of the LINER/Seyfert 1 galaxy M81, from optical spectra obtained with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) integral field spectrograph on the Gemini-North telescope at a spatial resolution of approximate to 10 pc. The stellar velocity field shows circular rotation and, overall, is very similar to the published large-scale velocity field, but deviations are observed close to the minor axis which can be attributed to stellar motions possibly associated with a nuclear bar. The stellar velocity dispersion of the bulge is 162 +/- 15 km s-1, in good agreement with previous measurements and leading to a black hole mass of M(BH) = 5.5+3.6(-2.0) x 107 M(circle dot) based on the M(BH)-Sigma relationship. The gas kinematics is dominated by non-circular motions and the subtraction of the stellar velocity field reveals blueshifts of approximate to-100 km s-1 on the far side of the galaxy and a few redshifts on the near side. These characteristics can be interpreted in terms of streaming towards the centre if the gas is in the plane. On the basis of the observed velocities and geometry of the flow, we estimate a mass inflow rate in ionized gas of approximate to 4.0 x 10-3 M(circle dot) yr-1, which is of the order of the accretion rate necessary to power the LINER nucleus of M81. We have also applied the technique of principal component analysis (PCA) to our data, which reveals the presence of a rotating nuclear gas disc within approximate to 50 pc from the nucleus and a compact outflow, approximately perpendicular to the disc. The PCA combined with the observed gas velocity field shows that the nuclear disc is being fed by gas circulating in the galaxy plane. The presence of the outflow is supported by a compact jet seen in radio observations at a similar orientation, as well as by an enhancement of the [O i]/H alpha line ratio, probably resulting from shock excitation of the circumnuclear gas by the radio jet. With these observations we are thus resolving both the feeding - via the nuclear disc and observed gas inflow, and the feedback - via the outflow, around the low-luminosity active nucleus of M81.

THE GEMINI NICI PLANET-FINDING CAMPAIGN: DISCOVERY OF A SUBSTELLAR L DWARF COMPANION TO THE NEARBY YOUNG M DWARF CD-35 2722

We present the discovery of a wide (67 AU) substellar companion to the nearby (21 pc) young solar-metallicity M1 dwarf CD-35 2722, a member of the approximate to 100 Myr AB Doradus association. Two epochs of astrometry from the NICI Planet-Finding Campaign confirm that CD-35 2722 B is physically associated with the primary star. Near-IR spectra indicate a spectral type of L4 +/- 1 with a moderately low surface gravity, making it one of the coolest young companions found to date. The absorption lines and near-IR continuum shape of CD-35 2722 B agree especially well the dusty field L4.5 dwarf 2MASS J22244381-0158521, while the near-IR colors and absolute magnitudes match those of the 5 Myr old L4 planetary-mass companion, 1RXS J160929.1-210524 b. Overall, CD-35 2722 B appears to be an intermediate-age benchmark for L dwarfs, with a less peaked H-band continuum than the youngest objects and near-IR absorption lines comparable to field objects. We fit Ames-Dusty model atmospheres to the near-IR spectra and find T(eff) = 1700-1900 K and log(g) = 4.5 +/- 0.5. The spectra also show that the radial velocities of components A and B agree to within +/- 10 km s(-1), further confirming their physical association. Using the age and bolometric luminosity of CD-35 2722 B, we derive a mass of 31 +/- 8 M(Jup) from the Lyon/Dusty evolutionary models. Altogether, young late-M to mid-L type companions appear to be overluminous for their near-IR spectral type compared with field objects, in contrast to the underluminosity of young late-L and early-T dwarfs.

THE COMPTON-THICK SEYFERT 2 NUCLEUS OF NGC 3281: TORUS CONSTRAINTS FROM THE 9.7 mu m SILICATE ABSORPTION

We present mid-infrared (mid-IR) spectra of the Compton-thick Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 3281, obtained with the Thermal-Region Camera Spectrograph at the Gemini-South telescope. The spectra present a very deep silicate absorption at 9.7 mu m, and [S IV] 10.5 mu m and [Ne II] 12.7 mu m ionic lines, but no evidence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission. We find that the nuclear optical extinction is in the range 24 mag <= A(V) <= 83 mag. A temperature T = 300 K was found for the blackbody dust continuum component of the unresolved 65 pc nucleus and the region at 130 pc SE, while the region at 130 pc NW reveals a colder temperature (200 K). We describe the nuclear spectrum of NGC 3281 using a clumpy torus model that suggests that the nucleus of this galaxy hosts a dusty toroidal structure. According to this model, the ratio between the inner and outer radius of the torus in NGC 3281 is R(0)/R(d) = 20, with 14 clouds in the equatorial radius with optical depth of tau(V) = 40 mag. We would be looking in the direction of the torus equatorial radius (i = 60 degrees), which has outer radius of R(0) similar to 11 pc. The column density is N(H) approximate to 1.2 x 10(24) cm(-2) and the iron K alpha equivalent width (approximate to 0.5-1.2 keV) is used to check the torus geometry. Our findings indicate that the X-ray absorbing column density, which classifies NGC 3281 as a Compton-thick source, may also be responsible for the absorption at 9.7 mu m providing strong evidence that the silicate dust responsible for this absorption can be located in the active galactic nucleus torus.

SURFACE ALFVEN WAVE DAMPING IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATION OF THE SOLAR WIND

Here we investigate the contribution of surface Alfven wave damping to the heating of the solar wind in minima conditions. These waves are present in the regions of strong inhomogeneities in density or magnetic field (e.g., the border between open and closed magnetic field lines). Using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model, we calculate the surface Alfven wave damping contribution between 1 and 4 R(circle dot) (solar radii), the region of interest for both acceleration and coronal heating. We consider waves with frequencies lower than those that are damped in the chromosphere and on the order of those dominating the heliosphere: 3 x 10(-6) to 10(-1) Hz. In the region between open and closed field lines, within a few R(circle dot) of the surface, no other major source of damping has been suggested for the low frequency waves we consider here. This work is the first to study surface Alfven waves in a 3D environment without assuming a priori a geometry of field lines or magnetic and density profiles. We demonstrate that projection effects from the plane of the sky to 3D are significant in the calculation of field line expansion. We determine that waves with frequencies >2.8 x 10(-4) Hz are damped between 1 and 4 R(circle dot). In quiet-Sun regions, surface Alfven waves are damped at further distances compared to active regions, thus carrying additional wave energy into the corona. We compare the surface Alfven wave contribution to the heating by a variable polytropic index and find it as an order of magnitude larger than needed for quiet-Sun regions. For active regions, the contribution to the heating is 20%. As it has been argued that a variable gamma acts as turbulence, our results indicate that surface Alfven wave damping is comparable to turbulence in the lower corona. This damping mechanism should be included self-consistently as an energy driver for the wind in global MHD models.

An analysis of the composite stellar population in M32

We obtained long-slit spectra of high signal-to-noise ratio of the galaxy M32 with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph at the Gemini-North telescope. We analysed the integrated spectra by means of full spectral fitting in order to extract the mixture of stellar populations that best represents its composite nature. Three different galactic radii were analysed, from the nuclear region out to 2 arcmin from the centre. This allows us to compare, for the first time, the results of integrated light spectroscopy with those of resolved colour-magnitude diagrams from the literature. As a main result we propose that an ancient and an intermediate-age population co-exist in M32, and that the balance between these two populations change between the nucleus and outside one effective radius (1r(eff)) in the sense that the contribution from the intermediate population is larger at the nuclear region. We retrieve a smaller signal of a young population at all radii whose origin is unclear and may be a contamination from horizontal branch stars, such as the ones identified by Brown et al. in the nuclear region. We compare our metallicity distribution function for a region 1 to 2 arcmin from the centre to the one obtained with photometric data by Grillmair et al. Both distributions are broad, but our spectroscopically derived distribution has a significant component with [Z/Z(circle dot)] <= -1, which is not found by Grillmair et al.