Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

A Gestão da Formação na Sucursal da Mundiserviços em Cabo Verde

O presente Relatório de Estágio insere-se no âmbito da Unidade Curricular de Estágio, realizado na empresa MundiServiços, Consultoria de Gestão e Formação, Sucursal de Cabo Verde, conducente ao grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação com especialização na área de Formação de Adultos. A Sucursal da MundiServiços em Cabo Verde centra a sua intervenção no mercado cabo-verdiano essencialmente em dois eixos: Consultoria na área de Gestão de Recursos Humanos e Formação Profissional. O meu Projecto de Estágio tem a sua incidência na área da Formação Profissional e visa responder a uma solicitação da ARFA - Agência de Regulação e Supervisão de Produtos Farmacêuticos e Alimentares - organização cliente da MundiServiços em Cabo Verde. Neste contexto, o Projecto de Estágio tem como finalidade a realização de um Estudo de Diagnóstico de Necessidades de Formação e a Elaboração de um Plano Estratégico de Formação que possa satisfazer as necessidades organizacionais, profissionais e pessoais da Agência e dos seus trabalhadores. Este trabalho enquadra-se numa medida estratégica da entidade, que passa pelo desenvolvimento de competências chave dos seus recursos humanos, como forma de responder a novos desafios estratégicos e organizacionais e de aumentar a motivação e satisfação interna dos seus trabalhadores. De acordo com os objectivos pré-estabelecidos para a execução deste estudo, tentou-se combinar as metodologias qualitativa e quantitativa, com recurso a diferentes técnicas de recolha, análise e tratamento de dados, com a principal finalidade de obter informações que permitam responder, de forma efectiva, à solicitação da agência, transformando as necessidades formativas dos trabalhadores em potencialidades.

Polymorphic social organization in an ant.

Identifying species exhibiting variation in social organization is an important step towards explaining the genetic and environmental factors underlying social evolution. In most studied populations of the ant Leptothorax acervorum, reproduction is shared among queens in multiple queen colonies (polygyny). By contrast, reports from other populations, but based on weaker evidence, suggest a single queen may monopolize all reproduction in multiple queen colonies (functional monogyny). Here we identify a marked polymorphism in social organization in this species, by conclusively showing that functional monogyny is exhibited in a Spanish population, showing that the social organization is stable and not purely a consequence of daughter queens overwintering, that daughter queen re-adoption is frequent and queen turnover is low. Importantly, we show that polygynous and functionally monogynous populations are not genetically distinct from one another based on mtDNA and nDNA. This suggests a recent evolutionary divergence between social phenotypes. Finally, when functionally monogynous and polygynous colonies were kept under identical laboratory conditions, social organization did not change, suggesting a genetic basis for the polymorphism. We discuss the implications of these findings to the study of reproductive skew.

An enhanced concave program relaxation for choice network revenue management

The network choice revenue management problem models customers as choosing from an offer-set, andthe firm decides the best subset to offer at any given moment to maximize expected revenue. The resultingdynamic program for the firm is intractable and approximated by a deterministic linear programcalled the CDLP which has an exponential number of columns. However, under the choice-set paradigmwhen the segment consideration sets overlap, the CDLP is difficult to solve. Column generation has beenproposed but finding an entering column has been shown to be NP-hard. In this paper, starting with aconcave program formulation based on segment-level consideration sets called SDCP, we add a class ofconstraints called product constraints, that project onto subsets of intersections. In addition we proposea natural direct tightening of the SDCP called ?SDCP, and compare the performance of both methodson the benchmark data sets in the literature. Both the product constraints and the ?SDCP method arevery simple and easy to implement and are applicable to the case of overlapping segment considerationsets. In our computational testing on the benchmark data sets in the literature, SDCP with productconstraints achieves the CDLP value at a fraction of the CPU time taken by column generation and webelieve is a very promising approach for quickly approximating CDLP when segment consideration setsoverlap and the consideration sets themselves are relatively small.

Characterization of intonation in Karṇāṭaka music by parametrizing context-based Svara Distributions

Intonation is a fundamental music concept that has a special relevance in Indian art music. It is characteristic of the rāga and intrinsic to the musical expression of the performer. Describing intonation is of importance to several information retrieval tasks like the development of rāga and artist similarity measures. In our previous work, we proposed a compact representation of intonation based on the parametrization of the pitch histogram of a performance and demonstrated the usefulness of this representation through an explorative rāga recognition task in which we classified 42 vocal performances belonging to 3 rāgas using parameters of a single svara. In this paper, we extend this representation to employ context-based svara distributions, which are obtained with a different approach to find the pitches belonging to each svara. We quantitatively compare this method to our previous one, discuss the advantages, and the necessary melodic analysis to be carried out in future.

Evaluation of an online, case-based interactive approach to teaching pathophysiology

Rapport de synthèse : L'article qui fait l'objet de ma thèse évalue une nouvelle approche pédagogique pour l'apprentissage de certains chapitres de physiopathologie. Le dispositif pédagogique se base sur l'alternance d'apprentissage ex-cathedra et de l'utilisation d'un site web comprenant des vignettes cliniques. Lors de la consultation de ces-dernières, l'étudiant est invité à demander des examens de laboratoire dont il pourrait justifier la pertinence selon le cas clinique étudié. La nouveauté du procédé réside dans le fait que, préalablement à son cours ex-cathedra, l'enseignant peut consulter les statistiques de demandes de laboratoire et ainsi orienter son cours selon les éléments mal compris par les étudiants. A la suite du cours ex-cathedra, les étudiants peuvent consulter sur internet la vignette clinique complète avec des explications. A l'issue de tout le cours, une évaluation auprès des étudiants a été conduite. Le procédé a été mis en place durant deux années consécutives et l'article en discute notamment les résultats. Nous avons pu conclure que cette méthode innovatrice d'enseignement amène les étudiants à mieux se préparer pour les cours ex-cathedra tout en permettant à l'enseignant d'identifier plus précisément quelles thématiques étaient difficiles pour les étudiants et donc d'ajuster au mieux son cours. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à créer ce dispositif d'apprentissage, à créer l'application web des vignettes cliniques et à l'implanter durant deux années consécutives. J'ai ensuite analysé les données des évaluations et écrit l'article que j'ai présenté à la revue 'Medical Teacher'. Après quelques corrections et précisions demandées par le comité de lecture, l'article a été accepté et publié. Ce travail a débouché sur une seconde version de l'application web qui est actuellement utilisée lors du module 3.1 de 3è année à l'Ecole de Médecine à Lausanne. Summary : Since the early days of sexual selection, our understanding of the selective forces acting on males and females during reproduction has increased remarkably. However, despite a long tradition of experimental and theoretical work in this field and relentless effort, numerous questions remain unanswered and many results are conflicting. Moreover, the interface between sexual selection and conservation biology has to date received little attention, despite existing evidence for its importance. In the present thesis, I first used an empirical approach to test various sexual selection hypotheses in a population of whitefish of central Switzerland. This precise population is characterized by a high prevalence of gonadal alterations in males. In particular, I challenged the hypothesis that whitefish males displaying peculiar gonadal features are of lower genetic quality than other seemingly normal males. Additionally, I also worked on identifying important determinant of sperm behavior. During a second theoretical part of my work, which is part of a larger project on the evolution of female mate preferences in harvested fish populations, I developed an individual-based simulation model to estimate how different mate discrimination costs affect the demographical behavior of fish populations and the evolutionary trajectories of female mate preferences. This latter work provided me with some insight on a recently published article addressing the importance of sexual selection for harvesting-induced evolution. I built upon this insight in a short perspective paper. In parallel, I let some methodological questions drive my thoughts, and wrote an essay about possible synergies between the biological, the philosophical and the statistical approach to biological questions.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of arsenic in the mouse

A remarkable feature of the carcinogenicity of inorganic arsenic is that while human exposures to high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are associated with increases in skin, lung, and bladder cancer, inorganic arsenic has not typically caused tumors in standard laboratory animal test protocols. Inorganic arsenic administered for periods of up to 2 yr to various strains of laboratory mice, including the Swiss CD-1, Swiss CR:NIH(S), C57Bl/6p53(+/-), and C57Bl/6p53(+/+), has not resulted in significant increases in tumor incidence. However, Ng et al. (1999) have reported a 40% tumor incidence in C57Bl/6J mice exposed to arsenic in their drinking water throughout their lifetime, with no tumors reported in controls. In order to investigate the potential role of tissue dosimetry in differential susceptibility to arsenic carcinogenicity, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for inorganic arsenic in the rat, hamster, monkey, and human (Mann et al., 1996a, 1996b) was extended to describe the kinetics in the mouse. The PBPK model was parameterized in the mouse using published data from acute exposures of B6C3F1 mice to arsenate, arsenite, monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) and validated using data from acute exposures of C57Black mice. Predictions of the acute model were then compared with data from chronic exposures. There was no evidence of changes in the apparent volume of distribution or in the tissue-plasma concentration ratios between acute and chronic exposure that might support the possibility of inducible arsenite efflux. The PBPK model was also used to project tissue dosimetry in the C57Bl/6J study, in comparison with tissue levels in studies having shorter duration but higher arsenic treatment concentrations. The model evaluation indicates that pharmacokinetic factors do not provide an explanation for the difference in outcomes across the various mouse bioassays. Other possible explanations may relate to strain-specific differences, or to the different durations of dosing in each of the mouse studies, given the evidence that inorganic arsenic is likely to be active in the later stages of the carcinogenic process. [Authors]

Artificial Urinary Sphincter based on smart materials

Objective: There are only a few established artificial urinary sphincters for treatment of incontinence. We have developed a new device composed by three parts: the actuator, three contractile rings and a control unit. The actuator is made of Nitinol fibers, driven by microprocessor. The fibers are linked to the rings placed around the urethra. They function with alternance in their open and closed position. This concept is called piano concept. With this set-up, the constant compression on the urethra is strongly reduced. Methods: Six male sheep have been used for this study. The sphincter was open each hour for a period of 10 min., to guaranty urination. The bladder was filled with water while one cuff was closed and bladder pressure was monitored. The animals were sacrificed. Two biopsies around two cuffs of each explant and all three cuffs from each explant including urethra were analyzed. Urethra not surrounded by a cuff was taken as control. Results: The pressure exerted by the sphincter around the urethra provided continence. Simulated incontinence occurred at a pressure of 1bar measured on the bladder wall using a pressure probe. The closing force of the cuff was approx. 0·7N. No difference in tissue structure and organization of the urethra with and without artificial sphincter was observed. Conclusions: This device has several advantages compared to other urinary sphincters. It is easy to implant, has no hydraulic nature and reduces ischemic injury of the urethra by the alternance of urethral part compressed. Proof of concept in vivo has been demonstrated. Other studies are planned to determine long-term outcome.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Implantació d'un sistema de gestió integrada: ISO 9001:00, ISO 14001:04 i OHSAS 18001:07, en un centre d'estètica i perruqueria

En aquests últims anys, són moltes les empreses que han optat per la utilització de sistemes de gestió normalitzats, per a garantir la rendibilitat i fiabilitat dels resultats de la implantació del sistema de gestió en qüestió. A la dècada dels 90 va ser quan la implantació de sistemes de gestió va començar a ser important en la majoria de sectors econòmics. L’evolució en els sistemes de gestió a trets generals va iniciar-se primerament en l’àmbit de la qualitat, seguidament en la gestió ambiental i en última instància en la prevenció de riscos laborals. Aquests tres tipus de sistemes de gestió, en els últims anys s’han anat integrant, de manera que s’han reduït els recursos i els esforços emprats en la gestió, millorant significativament l’eficàcia i l’eficiència d’aquests sistemes. L’objectiu principal que persegueix aquest projecte, és definir un sistema de gestió que permeti a l’empresa conduir les seves activitats de forma simplificada i ordenada, i que alhora faciliti la informació necessària per a corregir i millorar les activitats. Un altre objectiu que pretén aconseguir aquest projecte, és el de dissenyar un SGI que aprofiti les sinèrgies generades en els diferents àmbits de la pròpia empresa i fomenti les interaccions entre els diferents nivells de l’organització. En conseqüència, millorarà de forma important els fluxos d’informació dins de l’empresa minimitzant els esforços i la pèrdua d’informació. El mètode escollit per a la implantació del SGI, ha estat la Gestió per Processos, la qual es basa en la definició i seguiment dels processos de l’empresa, partint de les necessitats del client i acabant quan aquestes estan satisfetes. En conclusió, a la finalització del present projecte s’obtindrà un SGI, amb tots els processos de l’empresa definits i implantats, que doni compliment a les normes UNEEN-ISO 9001:00, UNE-EN-ISO 14001:04 i OHSAS 18001:07. Aquest SGI, que s’ha realitzat des d’un punt de vista documental i teòric, suposarà una millora de l’eficàcia operativa dels processos i una important millora competitiva de l’empresa.

Bringing Funds of Family Knowledge to school. The Living Morocco Project (“برغملا شيعلا”)

The purpose of the study, grounded in sociocultural theory, is to describe the funds of knowledge of a Moroccan family living in Catalonia (Spain) in order to document how teachers can use these funds of knowledge to make direct links between students' lives and classroom teaching. The funds of knowledge approach is based on a simple premise: regardless of any socio-economical and sociocultural "deficit" that people may or may not have all families accumulate bodies of beliefs, ideas, skills and abilities based on their experiences (in areas such as their occupation or their religion). The challenge consists in connecting these bodies of educational resources with teaching practice in order to connect the curriculum with students' lives. In doing so, qualitative research can be carried out using several techniques such as self portraits, self-definition tasks, assessment of family artefacts, documenting routines through photographs, or the analysis of a person's significant circle. The results in terms of teaching practices illustrate the variety of ways teachers can make connections between home and school in ways that assist learners in their academic development. In this article, we propose using the term funds of identity to complement the concept of funds of knowledge

The Smiling Project: development of a new program for gait and balance training

Introduction: The SMILING project, a multicentric project fundedby the European Union, aims to develop a new gait and balance trainingprogram to prevent falls in older persons. The program includes the"SMILING shoe", an innovative device that generates mechanical perturbationwhile walking by changing the soles' inclination. Induced perturbationschallenge subjects' balance and force them to react to avoidfalls. By training specifically the complex motor reactions used to maintainbalance when walking on irregular ground, the program will improvesubjects' ability to react in situation of unsteadiness and reduce theirrisk of falling. Methods: The program will be evaluated in a multicentric,cross-over randomized controlled trial. Overall, 112 subjects (aged≥65 years, ≥1 falls, POMA score 22-26/28) will be enrolled. Subjectswill be randomised in 2 groups: group A begin the training with active"SMILING shoes", group B with inactive dummy shoes. After 4 weeksof training, group A and B will exchange the shoes. Supervised trainingsessions (30 minutes twice a week for 8 weeks) include walkingtasks of progressive difficulties.To avoid a learning effect, "SMILINGshoes" perturbations will be generated in a non-linear and chaotic way.Gait performance, fear of falling, and acceptability of the program willbe assessed. Conclusion: The SMILING program is an innovative interventionfor falls prevention in older persons based on gait and balancetraining using chaotic perturbations. Because of the easy use of the"SMILING shoes", this program could be used in various settings, suchas geriatric clinics or at home.

Trayectorias docentes e investigadoras en la universidad. 24 historias de vida profesional. Los efectos de los cambios en el trabajo y la vida profesional de los docentes universitarios

[spa] Este texto forma parte de un proyecto de investigación Los efectos de los cambios sociales en el trabajo y la vida profesional de los docentes universitarios, parcialmente financiado por el Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (SEJ2006-01876), en el que nos planteamos explorar los cambios los ámbitos de la legislación, laorganización institucional, la investigación, la gestión y la docencia en los últimos treinta años. El principal objetivo del estudio era profundizar en nuestra comprensión sobre el impacto del cambio económico, social, cultural, tecnológico y laboral que están experimentando las universidades españolas en la vida y la identidad profesional del personal docente e investigador, teniendo en cuenta el contexto nacional y europeo. Estapublicación recoge la 24 historias de vida profesional realizas con o sobre otros tantos docentes universitarios. Sus relatos analizados y contextualizados, significan una contribución significativa al conocimiento basado en la investigación sobre el saber profesional y la experiencia laboral en las universidades españolas, y en consecuencia, a nuestra comprensión sobre cómo los académicos se están enfrentando con los cambios actuales.

Recherche-action et gouvernance clinique: l'exemple du projet "psychiatrie et migrants" du CHUV [Action research and clinical governance: the example of the project "psychiatry and migrants" at the Centre hospitalier universitaire vaudois]

Action research is a useful instrument for the organization health care and the clinical governance of psychiatric institutions. What this type of research offers can be illustrated by the cohort study of migrant patients without health insurance who consulted the Department of Psychiatry of the Vaudois university medical center (CHUV) in 2008. While giving greater visibilty to the psychological suffering and social distress of these patients, the study also enabled the authors to determine which clinical procedures were actually offered to these patients and the amount these procedures cost the department. The small number of cases that were identified as well as their uneven distribution amongst the different services of the department suggest that considerable efforts must still be made to improve access for this population to public psychiatric services.

Record of Decision, Council Bluffs Interstate System(I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project, October 15, 2005

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) approves the selection of the Reconstruction of All or Part of the Interstate (Construction Alternative) as the Preferred Alternative to provide improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 to east of the Interstate 480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska. The study considered long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing.