Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Poverty and livelihood diversification in rural Liberia: exploring the linkages between artisanal diamond mining and smallholder rice production

This paper provides an account of the changing livelihood dynamics unfolding in diamond-rich territories of rural Liberia. In these areas, many farm families are using the rice harvested on their plots to attract and feed labourers recruited specifically to mine for diamonds. The monies accrued from the sales of all recovered stones are divided evenly between the family and hired hands, an arrangement which, for thousands of people, has proved to be an effective short-term buffer against poverty. A deepened knowledge of these dynamics could be an important step towards facilitating lasting development in Liberia’s highly-impoverished rural areas.

Identifying barriers and opportunities for transitions towards more sustainable agriculture through system analysis: the case of Vereda La Hoya, Colombia

The paper presents the results of studies which investigated farmers’ reasoning and behaviour with regards to the mis‐use of personal protective equipment and pesticide among smallholders in Colombia. First, the research approach is described. In particular, the structured mental models approach and the integrative agent‐centred framework are presented. These approaches permit to understand the farmers’ reasoning and behaviour in a system perspective. Second, the results are summarized. The methods adopted allowed not only for identifying the factors, but also the social dynamics influencing farmers. Finally, suggestions for interventions are provided, which are not limited to a technical fix, but address the underlying social causes of the problem.

Poverty, HIV, and barriers to education: street children's experiences in Tanzania

This article discusses the links between poverty, HIV/AIDS, and barriers to education, based on the first-hand experiences of ‘street children’ in northern Tanzania. Within the context of national levels of poverty, ‘cost-sharing’ in health and education sectors, and the AIDS epidemic, poor families in Tanzania are under considerable pressure, and increasing numbers of girls and boys are consequently seeking a living independently on the streets of towns and cities. My research with street children shows that some children orphaned by AIDS are subject to rejection and exploitation by the extended family after the death of their parent(s). They are exposed to considerable risks of abuse, sexual violence and HIV within the street environment. Here, I discuss the links between poverty, HIV and barriers to education, which compound young people’s vulnerability, and offer some policy recommendations in response to the young people’s experiences.

The language of poverty: an exploration of the narratives of the poor

Within the development discourse, the narratives of the poor are a well utilized rhetorical tool to describe poverty and its causes. However, narratives can also reveal the beliefs and ‘world-view’ of the narrators. To explore this influence, the authors applied a discursive approach, to deconstruct the narratives of 101 slum dwellers in Kibera, Nairobi. The results revealed that poverty was largely attributed to external constraints, beyond an individual's control. Despite wanting a better life, participants held low expectations for the future. Hopes and dreams were placed on their children. While risk and uncertainty was a constant theme, large differences were found between genders as to the aspirations for the future. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Shifts in metabolic scaling, production, and efficiency across major evolutionary transitions of life

The diversification of life involved enormous increases in size and complexity. The evolutionary transitions from prokaryotes to unicellular eukaryotes to metazoans were accompanied by major innovations inmetabolicdesign.Hereweshowthat thescalingsofmetabolic rate, population growth rate, and production efficiency with body size have changed across the evolutionary transitions.Metabolic rate scales with body mass superlinearly in prokaryotes, linearly in protists, and sublinearly inmetazoans, so Kleiber’s 3/4 power scaling law does not apply universally across organisms. The scaling ofmaximum population growth rate shifts from positive in prokaryotes to negative in protists and metazoans, and the efficiency of production declines across these groups.Major changes inmetabolic processes duringtheearlyevolutionof life overcameexistingconstraints, exploited new opportunities, and imposed new constraints. The 3.5 billion year history of life on earth was characterized by

The shape of change: memetic analysis of poverty definitions from the 1970s to the 2000s

The authors illustrate how notions of poverty are constructed around specific ‘memes’, or replicating units of cultural information, around which concepts and ideas develop and change. Three ‘memes’ characterising definitions of poverty over the previous years were identified: ‘basic needs’, ‘multidimensional’ and ‘deprivation’. The analysis illustrated the semantic space in which each term was utilised and to the extent it changed and modified over time by different actors. The results revealed how ‘memes’ compete with one another across the discourse. Within this competition, older concepts are almost never fully abandoned, but rather repackaged and reutilised. Thus, new definitions of poverty are less innovative than portrayed in the wider literature.

Panzootics and the poor: devising a global livestock disease prioritisation framework for poverty alleviation

Panzootics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza and Rift Valley fever have originated from the South, largely among poor communities. On a global level, approximately two-thirds of those individuals living on less than US$2 per day keep livestock. Consequently, there is a need to better target animal health interventions for poverty reduction using an evidence-based approach. Therefore, the paper offers a three-step prioritisation framework using calculations derived from standard poverty measures: the poverty gap and the head count ratio. Data from 265 poor livestock-keeping households in Kenya informed the study. The results demonstrate that, across a spectrum of producers, the dependence upon particular species varies. Furthermore, the same livestock disease has differing impacts on the depth and severity of poverty. Consequently, animal health interventions need to