Analysis of the C-SOSI Instrument in a 9-1-1 Telecommunicator Population

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Finite Population Inference for Causal Parameters

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Obesity, diet quality and absenteeism in a working population

The relationship between workplace absenteeism and adverse lifestyle factors (smoking, physical inactivity and poor dietary patterns) remains ambiguous. Reliance on self-reported absenteeism and obesity measures may contribute to this uncertainty. Using objective absenteeism and health status measures, the present study aimed to investigate what health status outcomes and lifestyle factors influence workplace absenteeism. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a complex workplace dietary intervention trial, the Food Choice at Work Study. Four multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants included 540 randomly selected employees from the four workplaces. Annual count absenteeism data were collected. Physical assessments included objective health status measures (BMI, midway waist circumference and blood pressure). FFQ measured diet quality from which DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) scores were constructed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) regression model examined associations between health status outcomes, lifestyle characteristics and absenteeism. The mean number of absences was 2·5 (sd 4·5) d. After controlling for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, the zinb model indicated that absenteeism was positively associated with central obesity, increasing expected absence rate by 72 %. Consuming a high-quality diet and engaging in moderate levels of physical activity were negatively associated with absenteeism and reduced expected frequency by 50 % and 36 %, respectively. Being in a managerial/supervisory position also reduced expected frequency by 50 %. To reduce absenteeism, workplace health promotion policies should incorporate recommendations designed to prevent and manage excess weight, improve diet quality and increase physical activity levels of employees.

Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

A New Mouse Model That Spontaneously Develops Chronic Liver Inflammation and Fibrosis

Here we characterize a new animal model that spontaneously develops chronic inflammation and fibrosis in multiple organs, the non-obese diabetic inflammation and fibrosis (N-IF) mouse. In the liver, the N-IF mouse displays inflammation and fibrosis particularly evident around portal tracts and central veins and accompanied with evidence of abnormal intrahepatic bile ducts. The extensive cellular infiltration consists mainly of macrophages, granulocytes, particularly eosinophils, and mast cells. This inflammatory syndrome is mediated by a transgenic population of natural killer T cells (NKT) induced in an immunodeficient NOD genetic background. The disease is transferrable to immunodeficient recipients, while polyclonal T cells from unaffected syngeneic donors can inhibit the disease phenotype. Because of the fibrotic component, early on-set, spontaneous nature and reproducibility, this novel mouse model provides a unique tool to gain further insight into the underlying mechanisms mediating transformation of chronic inflammation into fibrosis and to evaluate intervention protocols for treating conditions of fibrotic disorders.

A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups, to much larger groups with increased stratification. But the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quanti- tative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the co-evolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: 1. surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; 2. high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were likely met for the first time during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

A two-fluid model for tissue growth within a dynamic flow environment

We study the growth of a tissue construct in a perfusion bioreactor, focussing on its response to the mechanical environment. The bioreactor system is modelled as a two-dimensional channel containing a tissue construct through which a flow of culture medium is driven. We employ a multiphase formulation of the type presented by G. Lemon, J. King, H. Byrne, O. Jensen and K. Shakesheff in their study (Multiphase modelling of tissue growth using the theory of mixtures. J. Math. Biol. 52(2), 2006, 571–594) restricted to two interacting fluid phases, representing a cell population (and attendant extracellular matrix) and a culture medium, and employ the simplifying limit of large interphase viscous drag after S. Franks in her study (Mathematical Modelling of Tumour Growth and Stability. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Nottingham, UK, 2002) and S. Franks and J. King in their study Interactions between a uniformly proliferating tumour and its surrounding: Uniform material properties. Math. Med. Biol. 20, 2003, 47–89). The novel aspects of this study are: (i) the investigation of the effect of an imposed flow on the growth of the tissue construct, and (ii) the inclusion of a chanotransduction mechanism regulating the response of the cells to the local mechanical environment. Specifically, we consider the response of the cells to their local density and the culture medium pressure. As such, this study forms the first step towards a general multiphase formulation that incorporates the effect of mechanotransduction on the growth and morphology of a tissue construct. The model is analysed using analytic and numerical techniques, the results of which illustrate the potential use of the model to predict the dominant regulatory stimuli in a cell population.

Sustainable deployment of QTLs conferring quantitative resistance to crops: first lessons from a stochastic model

International audience

Application of dental morphological characteristics for medical-legal identification: sexual diagnosis in a portuguese population

Licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0.

Phosphoglucose isomerase variability of Cerastoderma glaucum as a model for testing the influence of environmental conditions and dispersal patterns through quantitative ecology approaches

Extreme conditions of coastal lagoons could directly modify the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence of environmental conditions and small scale dispersal patterns on the phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI*) genetic variability of Cerastoderma glaucum from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. For this purpose, 284 cockles were collected around the perimeter of the lagoon. Vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to scan for PGI* polymorphisms, giving a total of seven alleles. The spatial genetic distribution of the PGI* variability, which seems to be marked by the main circulation in the lagoon, discriminates four hydrological basins. In the central basin, a gradient of allelic composition reflects the circulation forced by the dominant winds and the main channel communicated to the open sea. This result is well supported by the salinity GAM model that defines this gradient. The other three basins are defined by the distribution of fine sand in a more complex model that tries to explain the isolation of the three sites localized inside these basins. The southern, western and northern basins show the lowest degree of interconnection and are considered the most confined areas of the Mar Menor lagoon. This situation agrees with the confinement theory for benthic assemblages in the lagoon. The greater degree of differentiation seen in the Isla del Ciervo population is probably due to recent human intervention on the nearby Marchamalo channel, which has been drained in recent years thus altering the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the southern basin.

Genetic diversity across geographical scales in marine coastal ecosystems: Holothuria arguinensis a model species

Coastal lagoons are considered one of the most productive areas of our planet harboring a large variety of habitats. Their transitional character, between terrestrial and marine environments, creates a very particular ecosystem with important variations of its environmental conditions. The organisms that are able to survive on these ecosystems frequently experience strong selective pressures and constrictions to gene flowwith marine populations, which could contribute to genetic divergence among populations inhabiting coastal lagoon and marine environments. Therefore, the main aims of this study are to asses the genetic diversity and population structure of Holothuria arguinensis across geographical ranges, to test the hypothesis of coastal lagoons as hotspots of genetic diversity in the Ria Formosa lagoon, and to determine the role of exporting standing genetic variation from the lagoon to open sea and their implications to recent geographical expansion events. To reach these objectives, we investigate the genetic structure of H. arguinensis using two mitochondrial DNA markers (COI and 16S) at different spatial scales: i) small, inside Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, South Portugal; 2) large, including most of the geographical distribution of this species (South and Western Portuguese coast and Canary islands); these results will allow us to compare the genetic diversity of lagoonal and marine populations of H. arguinensis. On this framework, its recent geographical expansion events, recorded by Rodrigues (2012) and González-Wangüemert and Borrero-Pérez (2012), will be analyzed considering the potential contribution from lagoonal genetic pool. Non-significant genetic structure and high haplotypic diversity were found inside the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Both genes were unable to detect significant genetic differentiation among lagoonal and marine localities, suggesting a high rate of gene flow. The results supported our hypotheses that coastal lagoons are not only acting as hotspots of genetic diversity, but also contributing for the genetic variability of the species, working as a source of new haplotypes and enhancing adaptation to the high variable conditions. Different genetic patterns of colonization were found on H. arguinensis, but they must be studied more deeply.

Transtheoretical model for behavior changes: an important tool when adopting active life

Despite the worship of beauty that has ruled this globalized society and the importance of physical activity for the prevention of cardio-degenerative diseases (US.DHHS, 1996), sedentary behavior continues to increase in the population.  What strategies can be used by professionals of human movement to make the population physically active? It is at this point where the Transtheoretical Model appears as an innovative option that greatly surpasses the classic short-term biological interventions, which have focused on momentary changes produced by physiological values.  This model has great potential since it offers the theoretical basis that makes the acquisition of an active behavior possible.  This article explains the theoretical basis of the transtheoretical model, including the way to assess the stages of change and to develop different strategies to make the person active by using behavioral processes and processes of change.