Qualifikationsnachfrage und Arbeitsmarkteintritt in der Schweiz: Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel oder Arbeitslosigkeit

Berufsorientierte Bildungssysteme sind auf die Vermittlung von spezialisierten beruflichen Qualifikationen ausgelegt. Werden diese nach Abschluss einer beruflichen Grundbildung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wenig nachgefragt, riskieren die Absolventen, die erworbenen berufsspezifischen Qualifikationen nicht verwerten zu können. Dies trifft nicht nur zu, wenn Arbeitsmarkteinsteiger arbeitslos werden, sondern auch, wenn sie den Beruf wechseln müssen. Für die drei verschiedenen Optionen des Arbeitsmarkteinstiegs – Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel und Arbeitslosigkeit – wird erstens untersucht, welche Bedeutung das individuell passende und das fachfremde Stellenangebot hat. Zweitens wird analysiert, wie eine unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Nachfrage nach fachspezifischen Qualifikationen die Bedeutung ausbildungsbezogener und individueller Merkmale für den Berufseinstieg verändert. Die Schweiz mit ihrem berufsorientierten Bildungssystem und berufsfachlich segmentieren Arbeitsmarkt dient als empirische Referenz. Die multinominalen logistischen Regressionsmodelle basieren auf den Daten des Schweizer Jugendpanels PISA2000/TREE. Die Individualdaten von Lehrabgänger werden auf Berufsebene, zeitpunkt- und regionsspezifisch mit dem individuell passenden und fachfremden Stellenangebot verknüpft, das auf den Stelleninseratendaten des Stellenmarktmonitors Schweiz (SMM) beruht. Dank dieser Verknüpfung von Angebot und Nachfrage nach beruflichen Qualifikationen auf der Mikroebene kann zum ersten Mal die grundlegende Bedeutung der Personalnachfrage für den Berufseinstieg nachgewiesen werden.

Paleofires and models illuminate future fire scenarios

Advances in Interdisciplinary Paleofire Research: Data and Model Comparisons for the Past Millennium; Harvard Forest, Petersham, Massachusetts, 27 September to 2 October 2015

Property Condition Disclosure Law: Does 'Seller Tell All' Matter in Property Values?

At the time when at least two-thirds of the US states have already mandated some form of seller's property condition disclosure statement and there is a movement in this direction nationally, this paper examines the impact of seller's property condition disclosure law on the residential real estate values, the information asymmetry in housing transactions and shift of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers, and attempts to ascertain the factors that lead to adoption of the disclosur law. The analytical structure employs parametric panel data models, semi-parametric propensity score matching models, and an event study framework using a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004. Exploiting the MSA level variation in house prices, the study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller's property condition disclosure statement to the buyer.

The theory of runs with application to drought predictions

The primary interest was in predicting the distribution runs in a sequence of Bernoulli trials. Difference equation techniques were used to express the number of runs of a given length k in n trials under three assumptions (1) no runs of length greater than k, (2) no runs of length less than k, (3) no other assumptions about the length of runs. Generating functions were utilized to obtain the distributions of the future number of runs, future number of minimum run lengths and future number of the maximum run lengths unconditional on the number of successes and failures in the Bernoulli sequence. When applying the model to Texas hydrology data, the model provided an adequate fit for the data in eight of the ten regions. Suggested health applications of this approach to run theory are provided. ^

AN ILLNESS-DEATH PROCESS WITH TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

A general model for the illness-death stochastic process with covariates has been developed for the analysis of survival data. This model incorporates important baseline and time-dependent covariates to make proper adjustment for the transition probabilities and survival probabilities. The follow-up period is subdivided into small intervals and a constant hazard is assumed for each interval. An approximation formula is derived to estimate the transition parameters when the exact transition time is unknown.^ The method developed is illustrated by using data from a study on the prevention of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction and subsequent mortality, the Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This method provides an analytical approach which simultaneously includes provision for both fatal and nonfatal events in the model. According to this analysis, the effectiveness of the treatment can be compared between the Placebo and Propranolol treatment groups with respect to fatal and nonfatal events. ^

A simulation study of the effects of small center enrollment in multi -center clinical trials

Multi-center clinical trials are very common in the development of new drugs and devices. One concern in such trials, is the effect of individual investigational sites enrolling small numbers of patients on the overall result. Can the presence of small centers cause an ineffective treatment to appear effective when treatment-by-center interaction is not statistically significant?^ In this research, simulations are used to study the effect that centers enrolling few patients may have on the analysis of clinical trial data. A multi-center clinical trial with 20 sites is simulated to investigate the effect of a new treatment in comparison to a placebo treatment. Twelve of these 20 investigational sites are considered small, each enrolling less than four patients per treatment group. Three clinical trials are simulated with sample sizes of 100, 170 and 300. The simulated data is generated with various characteristics, one in which treatment should be considered effective and another where treatment is not effective. Qualitative interactions are also produced within the small sites to further investigate the effect of small centers under various conditions.^ Standard analysis of variance methods and the "sometimes-pool" testing procedure are applied to the simulated data. One model investigates treatment and center effect and treatment-by-center interaction. Another model investigates treatment effect alone. These analyses are used to determine the power to detect treatment-by-center interactions, and the probability of type I error.^ We find it is difficult to detect treatment-by-center interactions when only a few investigational sites enrolling a limited number of patients participate in the interaction. However, we find no increased risk of type I error in these situations. In a pooled analysis, when the treatment is not effective, the probability of finding a significant treatment effect in the absence of significant treatment-by-center interaction is well within standard limits of type I error. ^

Factores que influyen en la adopción de tecnologías de conservación de suelos en el secano interior de Chile Central

El desarrollo de sistemas agrícolas sustentables es un desafío en el contexto de políticas e incentivos tendientes a la conservación de los recursos naturales, especialmente en zonas de secano. El presente estudio examina variables demográficas y productivas que influyen en la adopción de tecnologías de conservación de suelos en 90 pequeños productores del secano interior de Chile Central, en las comunas de Pencahue y Curepto. Se utilizó un modelo de regresión Probit, el cual asocia la adopción de las tecnologías con las variables: edad del agricultor, tamaño familiar, superficie predial y forma de tenencia de la tierra; presencia de: plantaciones forestales, invernaderos, aboneras, animales mayores en el predio; experiencia en comercialización del productor y participación en actividades de capacitación. El modelo seleccionado tiene un alto poder de predicción, llegando a clasificar correctamente un 92,2% de las observaciones. Los resultados econométricos muestran que la participación en actividades de extensión, la superficie predial, la presencia de plantaciones forestales y el uso de aboneras, influyen de manera positiva y significativa sobre la adopción de tecnologías conservacionistas. Resulta relevante el impacto de la capacitación sobre la adopción de tecnologías de alto grado de inversión, así como la incorporación de prácticas de conservación de bajo nivel de inversión como las aboneras.

U and Th concentrations and isotope ratios of samples from ODP Leg 166

Constraining the history of seawater (234U/238U) is important because this ratio is used to assess the validity of U/Th ages, and because it provides information about the past rate of physical weathering on the continents. This study makes use of U-rich slope sediments from the Bahamas in an attempt to reconstruct seawater (234U/238U) for the last 800 kyr. For the last 360 kyr, U/Th dating of these sediments provides ages and initial (234U/238U) values. Sixty-seven samples, largely from marine highstands, have initial (234U/238U) which scatter somewhat about the modern seawater value (~1.145) but neither this scatter nor the average value increases with age of sample. These data contrast with published coral data and suggest that seawater (234U/238U) has remained within 15? of the modern value for the last 360 kyr. This confirms the rejection of coral U/Th ages where the initial (234U/238U) is significantly different from modern seawater. Data from older highstands, dated with delta18O stratigraphy or by the presence of the Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) reversal at 780 kyr, allow seawater (234U/238U) to be assessed prior to the range of the 230Th chronometer. Unfortunately, diagenetic scatter in the data between the B/M reversal and 360 kyr is rather large, probably relating to low U concentrations for these samples. But there is no indication of a trend in seawater (234U/238U) with age. High U samples from close to the B/M reversal show less diagenetic scatter and an initial (234U/238U) that averages 1.102. This lower value can be explained by lower seawater (234U/238U) at the time of the B/M reversal, or by progressive loss of 234U from the sediment by alpha-recoil. A simple box model is presented to illustrate the response of seawater (234U/238U) to variations in riverine input, such as might be caused by changes in continental weathering. Comparison of the Bahamas (234U/238U) data with model results indicates that riverine (234U/238U) has not varied by more than 65? for any 100 kyr period during the last 360 kyr. It also indicates that the ratio of physical to chemical weathering on the continents has not been higher than at present for any extended period during the last 800 kyr.

Geochemistry and Mg-isotopes of carbonate sediments and porefluids of ODP Site 130-807

Deep-sea pore fluids are potential archives of ancient seawater chemistry. However, the primary signal recorded in pore fluids is often overprinted by diagenetic processes. Recent studies have suggested that depth profiles of Mg concentration in deep-sea carbonate pore fluids are best explained by a rapid rise in seawater Mg over the last 10-20 Myr. To explore this possibility we measured the Mg isotopic composition of pore fluids and carbonate sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 807. Whereas the concentration of Mg in the pore fluid declines with depth, the isotopic composition of Mg in the pore fluid increases from -0.78 per mil near the sediment-water interface to -0.15 per mil at 778 mbsf. The Mg isotopic composition of the sediment, with few important exceptions, does not change with depth and has an average d26Mg value of -4.72 per mil. We reproduce the observed changes in sediment and pore-fluid Mg isotope values using a numerical model that incorporates Mg, Ca and Sr cycling and satisfies existing pore-fluid Ca isotope and Sr data. Our model shows that the observed trends in magnesium concentrations and isotopes are best explained as a combination of two processes: a secular rise in the seawater Mg over the Neogene and the recrystallization of low-Mg biogenic carbonate to a higher-Mg diagenetic calcite. These results indicate that burial recrystallization will add Mg to pelagic carbonate sediments, leading to an overestimation of paleo-temperatures from measured Mg/Ca ratios. The Mg isotopic composition of foraminiferal calcite appears to be only slightly altered by recrystallization making it possible to reconstruct the Mg isotopic composition of seawater through time.

Planktonic foraminifer assemblages and stable oxygen and carbon isotope record of sediment core MD07-3076Q

We report high-resolution planktonic foraminifer census counts and stable oxygen and carbon isotope measurements of the planktonic foraminifera G. bulloides and N. pachyderma s. from sediment core MD07-3076Q for the last deglaciation, the last glacial maximum and Marine Isotope Stage 3. These data provide insights into the marine cycling of carbon and frontal dynamics in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last 68 ka.

Particle camera and settling chamber measurements at site PC (GeoB11834-3) and SC (GeoB12914-4) off Cape Blanc/Mauritania

Particles sinking out of the euphotic zone are important vehicles of carbon export from the surface ocean. Most of the particles produce heavier aggregates by coagulating with each other before they sink. We implemented an aggregation model into the biogeochemical model of Regional Oceanic Modelling System (ROMS) to simulate the distribution of particles in the water column and their downward transport in the Northwest African upwelling region. Accompanying settling chamber, sediment trap and particle camera measurements provide data for model validation. In situ aggregate settling velocities measured by the settling chamber were around 55 m d**-1. Aggregate sizes recorded by the particle camera hardly exceeded 1 mm. The model is based on a continuous size spectrum of aggregates, characterised by the prognostic aggregate mass and aggregate number concentration. Phytoplankton and detritus make up the aggregation pool, which has an averaged, prognostic and size dependent sinking. Model experiments were performed with dense and porous approximations of aggregates with varying maximum aggregate size and stickiness as well as with the inclusion of a disaggregation term. Similar surface productivity in all experiments has been generated in order to find the best combination of parameters that produce measured deep water fluxes. Although the experiments failed to represent surface particle number spectra, in the deep water some of them gave very similar slope and spectrum range as the particle camera observations. Particle fluxes at the mesotrophic sediment trap site off Cape Blanc (CB) have been successfully reproduced by the porous experiment with disaggregation term when particle remineralisation rate was 0.2 d**-1. The aggregation-disaggregation model improves the prediction capability of the original biogeochemical model significantly by giving much better estimates of fluxes for both upper and lower trap. The results also point to the need for more studies to enhance our knowledge on particle decay and its variation and to the role that stickiness play in the distribution of vertical fluxes.

Calcium isotopes in planktonic foraminifera - core tops and sediment trap samples

For paleoceanographic studies, it is important to understand the processes that influence the calcium (Ca) isotopic composition of foraminiferal calcite tests preserved in the sediment record. Seven species of planktonic foraminifera from coretop sediments collectively exhibited a Ca temperature dependent fractionation of 0.013 per mil per °C. This is in agreement with previously published estimates for most species of planktonic foraminifera as well as biogenic and inorganic calcite and aragonite. Four species of planktonic foraminifera collected from a sediment trap showed a considerable amount of scatter and no consistent temperature dependent fractionation. Analyzed size fractions of coretop samples show no significant relationship with d44/40Ca. However, preliminary results suggest that the symbiotic and spinose foraminifera G. sacculifer might exhibit a relationship between test size and d44/40Ca. A one-box model in which Ca isotopes are allowed to fractionate by Rayleigh distillation from a biomineralization reservoir (internal pool) was used to constrain the isotopic composition of the original biomineralization Ca reservoir, assuming around 85% of the Ca reservoir is precipitated and the fractionation factor during precipitation is 0.9985 + 0.00002(T ºC). To explain the foraminiferal Ca isotope data, this model indicates that the Ca isotopic composition of the biomineralization reservoir is offset from seawater (approximately -0.8per mil).

Human Capital Investment and Poverty Reduction over Generations: A Case from the Rural Philippines, 1979-2003

This paper attempts to identify a pathway out of poverty over generations in the rural Philippines, based on long-term panel data spanning for nearly a quarter of a century. Specifically, it sequentially examines the determinants of schooling, subsequent occupational choices, and current non-farm earnings for the same individuals. We found that an initial rise in parental income, brought about by the land reform and the Green Revolution, among other things, improves the schooling of children, which later allows them to obtain remunerative non-farm jobs. These results suggest that the increased agricultural income, improved human capital through schooling and the development of non-farm sectors are the keys to reducing poverty in the long run. It must be also pointed out that the recent development of the rural non-farm sector offers ample employment opportunities for the less educated, which also significantly contributed to the poverty reduction.

The Production Technology of Philippine Domestic Banks in the Pre-Asian Crisis Periods: Estimation of Cost Function in the 1990-96 Period

This is to analyzes the operational behavior and technical progress among Philippine domestic banks, using micro-level data on individual banks. First, we summarize their major business activities and gain insight on how the structure is changing. Then, we formally estimate the cost function of Philippine domestic banks using panel data covering a seven-year period (1990-96). The presence of economies of scale and economies of scope is investigated and technical progress in the banking industry is measured. In addition, the results of analysis for the Philippines are compared with those of similar studies on Thailand conducted by the author previously.

Fiscal Decentralization, Chinese Style: Good for Health Outcomes?

This study analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization on health outcomes in China using a panel data set with nationwide county-level data. We find that counties in more fiscal decentralized provinces have lower infant mortality rates compared to those counties in which the provincial government retains the main spending authority, if certain conditions are met. Spending responsibilities at the local level need to be matched with county government's own fiscal capacity. For those local governments that have only limited revenues, their ability to spend on local public goods such as health care depends crucially upon intergovernmental transfers. The findings of this study thereby support the common assertion that fiscal decentralization can indeed lead to more efficient production of local public goods, but also highlights the necessary conditions to make this happen.