869 resultados para PROPORTIONAL HAZARD AND ACCELERATED FAILURE MODELS


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This study focuses on the learning and teaching of Reading in English as a Foreign Language (REFL), in Libya. The study draws on an action research process in which I sought to look critically at students and teachers of English as a Foreign Language (EFL) in Libya as they learned and taught REFL in four Libyan research sites. The Libyan EFL educational system is influenced by two main factors: the method of teaching the Holy-Quran and the long-time ban on teaching EFL by the former Libyan regime under Muammar Gaddafi. Both of these factors have affected the learning and teaching of REFL and I outline these contextual factors in the first chapter of the thesis. This investigation, and the exploration of the challenges that Libyan university students encounter in their REFL, is supported by attention to reading models. These models helped to provide an analytical framework and starting point for understanding the many processes involved in reading for meaning and in reading to satisfy teacher instructions. The theoretical framework I adopted was based, mainly and initially, on top-down, bottom-up, interactive and compensatory interactive models. I drew on these models with a view to understanding whether and how the processes of reading described in the models could be applied to the reading of EFL students and whether these models could help me to better understand what was going on in REFL. The diagnosis stage of the study provided initial data collected from four Libyan research sites with research tools including video-recorded classroom observations, semi-structured interviews with teachers before and after lesson observation, and think-aloud protocols (TAPs) with 24 students (six from each university) in which I examined their REFL reading behaviours and strategies. This stage indicated that the majority of students shared behaviours such as reading aloud, reading each word in the text, articulating the phonemes and syllables of words, or skipping words if they could not pronounce them. Overall this first stage indicated that alternative methods of teaching REFL were needed in order to encourage ‘reading for meaning’ that might be based on strategies related to eventual interactive reading models adapted for REFL. The second phase of this research project was an Intervention Phase involving two team-teaching sessions in one of the four stage one universities. In each session, I worked with the teacher of one group to introduce an alternative method of REFL. This method was based on teaching different reading strategies to encourage the students to work towards an eventual interactive way of reading for meaning. A focus group discussion and TAPs followed the lessons with six students in order to discuss the 'new' method. Next were two video-recorded classroom observations which were followed by an audio-recorded discussion with the teacher about these methods. Finally, I conducted a Skype interview with the class teacher at the end of the semester to discuss any changes he had made in his teaching or had observed in his students' reading with respect to reading behaviour strategies, and reactions and performance of the students as he continued to use the 'new' method. The results of the intervention stage indicate that the teacher, perhaps not surprisingly, can play an important role in adding to students’ knowledge and confidence and in improving their REFL strategies. For example, after the intervention stage, students began to think about the title, and to use their own background knowledge to comprehend the text. The students employed, also, linguistic strategies such as decoding and, above all, the students abandoned the behaviour of reading for pronunciation in favour of reading for meaning. Despite the apparent efficacy of the alternative method, there are, inevitably, limitations related to the small-scale nature of the study and the time I had available to conduct the research. There are challenges, too, related to the students’ first language, the idiosyncrasies of the English language, the teacher training and continuing professional development of teachers, and the continuing political instability of Libya. The students’ lack of vocabulary and their difficulties with grammatical functions such as phrasal and prepositional verbs, forms which do not exist in Arabic, mean that REFL will always be challenging. Given such constraints, the ‘new’ methods I trialled and propose for adoption can only go so far in addressing students’ difficulties in REFL. Overall, the study indicates that the Libyan educational system is underdeveloped and under resourced with respect to REFL. My data indicates that the teacher participants have received little to no professional developmental that could help them improve their teaching in REFL and skills in teaching EFL. These circumstances, along with the perennial problem of large but varying class sizes; student, teacher and assessment expectations; and limited and often poor quality resources, affect the way EFL students learn to read in English. Against this background, the thesis concludes by offering tentative conclusions; reflections on the study, including a discussion of its limitations, and possible recommendations designed to improve REFL learning and teaching in Libyan universities.

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Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

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The time for conducting Preventive Maintenance (PM) on an asset is often determined using a predefined alarm limit based on trends of a hazard function. In this paper, the authors propose using both hazard and reliability functions to improve the accuracy of the prediction particularly when the failure characteristic of the asset whole life is modelled using different failure distributions for the different stages of the life of the asset. The proposed method is validated using simulations and case studies.

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ABSTRACT. The phenomenon of consumer co-creation is often framed in terms of whether either economic market forces or socio-cultural non-market forces ultimately dominate. We propose an alternate model of consumer co-creation in terms of co-evolution between markets and non-markets. Our model is based on a recent ethnographic study of a massively multiplayer online game through its development, release and ultimate failure, and cast in terms of two explanatory models: multiple games and social network markets. We conclude that consumer co-creation is indeed complex, but in ways that relate to both emergent market expectations and the evolution of markets, not to the transcendence of markets.

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In recent decades a number of Australian artists and teacher/artists have given serious attention to the creation of performance forms and performance engagement models that respect children’s intelligence, engage with themes of relevance, avoid the cliche´s of children’s theatre whilst connecting both sincerely and playfully with current understandings of the way in which young children develop and engage with the world. Historically a majority of performing arts companies touring Australian schools or companies seeking schools to view a performance in a dedicated performance venue engage with their audiences in what can be called a ‘drop-in drop-out’ model. A six-month practice-led research project (The Tashi Project) which challenged the tenets of the ‘drop-in drop-out’ model has been recently undertaken by Sandra Gattenhof and Mark Radvan in conjunction with early childhood students from three Brisbane primary school classrooms who were positioned as co-researchers and co-artists. The children, researchers and performers worked in a complimentary relationship in both the artistic process and the development of product.

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This paper examines consumers self-referencing as a mechanism for explaining ethnicity effects in advertising. Data was collected from a 2 (model ethnicity: Asian, white) x 2 (product stereotypicality: stereotypical, non-stereotypical) experiment. Measured independent variables included participant ethnicity and self-referencing. Results shows that (1) Asian exhibit greater self-referencing of Asian models than whites do; (2) self-referencing mediates ethnicity effects on attitude ( ie, attitude towards the model, attitude toward the add, brand attitude, and purchase intentions); (3) high self-referencing Asian have more favourable attitude towards the add and purchase intentions than low self referencing Asians; and (4) Asian models advertising atypical products generate more self-referencing and more favourable attitudes toward the model, A, and purchase intentions for both Asians and whites.

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Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is the most common surrogate measurement for assessing the bone strength of the proximal femur associated with osteoporosis. Additional factors, however, contribute to the overall strength of the proximal femur, primarily the anatomical geometry. Finite element analysis (FEA) is an effective and widely used computerbased simulation technique for modeling mechanical loading of various engineering structures, providing predictions of displacement and induced stress distribution due to the applied load. FEA is therefore inherently dependent upon both density and anatomical geometry. FEA may be performed on both three-dimensional and two-dimensional models of the proximal femur derived from radiographic images, from which the mechanical stiffness may be redicted. It is examined whether the outcome measures of two-dimensional FEA, two-dimensional, finite element analysis of X-ray images (FEXI), and three-dimensional FEA computed stiffness of the proximal femur were more sensitive than aBMD to changes in trabecular bone density and femur geometry. It is assumed that if an outcome measure follows known trends with changes in density and geometric parameters, then an increased sensitivity will be indicative of an improved prediction of bone strength. All three outcome measures increased non-linearly with trabecular bone density, increased linearly with cortical shell thickness and neck width, decreased linearly with neck length, and were relatively insensitive to neck-shaft angle. For femoral head radius, aBMD was relatively insensitive, with two-dimensional FEXI and threedimensional FEA demonstrating a non-linear increase and decrease in sensitivity, respectively. For neck anteversion, aBMD decreased non-linearly, whereas both two-dimensional FEXI and three dimensional FEA demonstrated a parabolic-type relationship, with maximum stiffness achieved at an angle of approximately 15o. Multi-parameter analysis showed that all three outcome measures demonstrated their highest sensitivity to a change in cortical thickness. When changes in all input parameters were considered simultaneously, three and twodimensional FEA had statistically equal sensitivities (0.41±0.20 and 0.42±0.16 respectively, p = ns) that were significantly higher than the sensitivity of aBMD (0.24±0.07; p = 0.014 and 0.002 for three-dimensional and two-dimensional FEA respectively). This simulation study suggests that since mechanical integrity and FEA are inherently dependent upon anatomical geometry, FEXI stiffness, being derived from conventional two-dimensional radiographic images, may provide an improvement in the prediction of bone strength of the proximal femur than currently provided by aBMD.

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Objective: To identify service providers’ and community organisations’ perceptions of the resources available to support people with mental illness and the unmet needs of this client group in rural Queensland. Design: An exploratory study was undertaken involving focus group interviews across the study sites. Setting: Five regional towns in rural Queensland. Participants: Ten to 14 members were recruited for each of the five focus groups. The groups represented a diverse mix of participants including health and community service providers and representatives from community organisations. Results: Participants identified gaps in services in relation to health, employment and education, housing and accommodation, transport and social inclusion and health promotion. Inter-service communication and inappropriate funding models were themes affecting service delivery. Conclusions: Specific service issues of housing and transport were identified to be particularly problematic for people with mental illness across all towns. Intersectoral communication and funding models require further research.

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The general aim of designated driver programs is to reduce the level of drink driving by encouraging potential drivers to travel with a driver who has abstained from (or at least limited) consuming alcohol. Designated driver programs are quite widespread around the world, however a limited number have been rigorously evaluated. This paper reports the qualitative results from an evaluation of a designated driver program known as ‘Skipper’, in a provincial city in Queensland. Focus groups were conducted with 108 individuals from the intervention area. These focus groups aimed to assess the barriers and facilitators to the programs’ effectiveness by obtaining information about the patrons’ views on various aspects of the program, as well as designated driver and travelling after drinking more generally. A brief questionnaire was also given to participants in order to present responses in terms of the participants’ characteristics. Results suggest general support for the designated driver concept and the ‘Skipper’ program specifically. Facilitating factors reported by participants included the media coverage highlighting the risks associated with drink driving and the social acceptability of choosing not to drink. However, there was also some suggestion that the impact of the program was mainly to encourage those who already engage in designated driver behaviour to continue doing so, rather than encouraging the uptake of the behaviour among potential new users. Some of the suggested barriers to this kind of behaviour change include: social pressure to drink; alcohol dependency; and a failure to plan ahead.

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Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

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Cold-formed steel members have been widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load bearing structural elements and non-load bearing structural elements (partitions) due to their advantages such as higher strength to weight ratio over the other structural materials such as hot-rolled steel, timber and concrete. Cold-formed steel members are often made from thin steel sheets and hence they are more susceptible to various buckling modes. Generally short columns are susceptible to local or distortional buckling while long columns to flexural or flexural-torsional buckling. Fire safety design of building structures is an essential requirement as fire events can cause loss of property and lives. Therefore it is essential to understand the fire performance of light gauge cold-formed steel structures under fire conditions. The buckling behaviour of cold-formed steel compression members under fire conditions is not well investigated yet and hence there is a lack of knowledge on the fire performance of cold-formed steel compression members. Current cold-formed steel design standards do not provide adequate design guidelines for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members. Therefore a research project based on extensive experimental and numerical studies was undertaken at the Queensland University of Technology to investigate the buckling behaviour of light gauge cold-formed steel compression members under simulated fire conditions. As the first phase of this research, a detailed review was undertaken on the mechanical properties of light gauge cold-formed steels at elevated temperatures and the most reliable predictive models for mechanical properties and stress-strain models based on detailed experimental investigations were identified. Their accuracy was verified experimentally by carrying out a series of tensile coupon tests at ambient and elevated temperatures. As the second phase of this research, local buckling behaviour was investigated based on the experimental and numerical investigations at ambient and elevated temperatures. First a series of 91 local buckling tests was carried out at ambient and elevated temperatures on lipped and unlipped channels made of G250-0.95, G550-0.95, G250-1.95 and G450-1.90 cold-formed steels. Suitable finite element models were then developed to simulate the experimental conditions. These models were converted to ideal finite element models to undertake detailed parametric study. Finally all the ultimate load capacity results for local buckling were compared with the available design methods based on AS/NZS 4600, BS 5950 Part 5, Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and the direct strength method (DSM), and suitable recommendations were made for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members subject to local buckling. As the third phase of this research, flexural-torsional buckling behaviour was investigated experimentally and numerically. Two series of 39 flexural-torsional buckling tests were undertaken at ambient and elevated temperatures. The first series consisted 2800 mm long columns of G550-0.95, G250-1.95 and G450-1.90 cold-formed steel lipped channel columns while the second series contained 1800 mm long lipped channel columns of the same steel thickness and strength grades. All the experimental tests were simulated using a suitable finite element model, and the same model was used in a detailed parametric study following validation. Based on the comparison of results from the experimental and parametric studies with the available design methods, suitable design recommendations were made. This thesis presents a detailed description of the experimental and numerical studies undertaken on the mechanical properties and the local and flexural-torsional bucking behaviour of cold-formed steel compression member at ambient and elevated temperatures. It also describes the currently available ambient temperature design methods and their accuracy when used for fire design with appropriately reduced mechanical properties at elevated temperatures. Available fire design methods are also included and their accuracy in predicting the ultimate load capacity at elevated temperatures was investigated. This research has shown that the current ambient temperature design methods are capable of predicting the local and flexural-torsional buckling capacities of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures with the use of reduced mechanical properties. However, the elevated temperature design method in Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 is overly conservative and hence unsuitable, particularly in the case of flexural-torsional buckling at elevated temperatures.

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The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

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Background Takeaway consumption has been increasing and may contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in overweight/obesity and chronic disease. This study examined socioeconomic differences in takeaway consumption patterns, and their contributions to dietary intake inequalities. Method Cross-sectional dietary intake data from adults aged between 25 and 64 years from the Australian National Nutrition Survey (n= 7319, 61% response rate). Twenty-four hour dietary recalls ascertained intakes of takeaway food, nutrients and fruit and vegetables. Education was used as socioeconomic indicator. Data were analysed using logistic regression and general linear models. Results Thirty-two percent (n = 2327) consumed takeaway foods in the 24 hour period. Lower-educated participants were less likely than their higher-educated counterparts to have consumed total takeaway foods (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.52, 0.80). Of those consuming takeaway foods, the lowest-educated group was more likely to have consumed “less healthy” takeaway choices (OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.73, 3.77), and less likely to have consumed “healthy” choices (OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.36, 0.75). Takeaway foods made a greater contribution to energy, total fat, saturated fat, and fibre intakes among lower than higher-educated groups. Lower likelihood of fruit and vegetable intakes were observed among “less healthy” takeaway consumers, whereas a greater likelihood of their consumption was found among “healthy” takeaway consumers. Conclusions Total and the types of takeaway foods consumed may contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in intakes of energy, total and saturated fats. However, takeaway consumption is unlikely to be a factor contributing to the lower fruit and vegetable intakes among socioeconomically-disadvantaged groups.

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Over the last decade, the rapid growth and adoption of the World Wide Web has further exacerbated user needs for e±cient mechanisms for information and knowledge location, selection, and retrieval. How to gather useful and meaningful information from the Web becomes challenging to users. The capture of user information needs is key to delivering users' desired information, and user pro¯les can help to capture information needs. However, e®ectively acquiring user pro¯les is di±cult. It is argued that if user background knowledge can be speci¯ed by ontolo- gies, more accurate user pro¯les can be acquired and thus information needs can be captured e®ectively. Web users implicitly possess concept models that are obtained from their experience and education, and use the concept models in information gathering. Prior to this work, much research has attempted to use ontologies to specify user background knowledge and user concept models. However, these works have a drawback in that they cannot move beyond the subsumption of super - and sub-class structure to emphasising the speci¯c se- mantic relations in a single computational model. This has also been a challenge for years in the knowledge engineering community. Thus, using ontologies to represent user concept models and to acquire user pro¯les remains an unsolved problem in personalised Web information gathering and knowledge engineering. In this thesis, an ontology learning and mining model is proposed to acquire user pro¯les for personalised Web information gathering. The proposed compu- tational model emphasises the speci¯c is-a and part-of semantic relations in one computational model. The world knowledge and users' Local Instance Reposito- ries are used to attempt to discover and specify user background knowledge. From a world knowledge base, personalised ontologies are constructed by adopting au- tomatic or semi-automatic techniques to extract user interest concepts, focusing on user information needs. A multidimensional ontology mining method, Speci- ¯city and Exhaustivity, is also introduced in this thesis for analysing the user background knowledge discovered and speci¯ed in user personalised ontologies. The ontology learning and mining model is evaluated by comparing with human- based and state-of-the-art computational models in experiments, using a large, standard data set. The experimental results are promising for evaluation. The proposed ontology learning and mining model in this thesis helps to develop a better understanding of user pro¯le acquisition, thus providing better design of personalised Web information gathering systems. The contributions are increasingly signi¯cant, given both the rapid explosion of Web information in recent years and today's accessibility to the Internet and the full text world.