Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

Long diagnostic delay in Crohn's disease is associated with complicated disease course and increased operation rate

Background and Aims: The impact of d iagnostic delay ( a period from appearance of f irst s ymptoms t o diagnosis) o n the clinical c ourse o f Crohn's disease (CD) i s unknown. W e examined whether length of d iagnostic delay a ffects d isease outcome. Methods: Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analyzed. T he frequencies of o ccurrence of b owel s tenoses, internal fistulas, perianal f istulas, and CD-related surgery at distinct i ntervals a fter C D diagnosis (0 - < 2 , 2 - < 6,  6 years) were c ompared f or g roups o f patients w ith different length of d iagnostic delay. Results: T he data from a g roup o f 200 CD patients with long diagnostic delay (> 24 months, 76th - 100th p ercentile) were c ompared to t hose from a group of 4 61 patients with a short diagnostic delay ( within 9 months, 1st - 50th p ercentile). T reatment r egimens d id n ot d iffer between t he two groups. Two years following diagnosis, p atients with long diagnostic delay presented more frequently with bowel stenoses (25% vs. 13.1%, p = 0.044), internal fistulas (10% vs. 2%, p = 0.018), perianal f istulas ( 20% vs. 8 .1%, p = 0.023) a nd more frequently underwent intestinal surgery (15% vs. 5 .1%, p = 0.024) t han patients with short diagnostic delay. Intestinal surgery was a lso m ore frequently p erformed  6 y ears after diagnosis in t he group with long d iagnostic delay ( 56.2% vs. 42.3%, p = 0.005) w hen compared to t he g roup with short diagnostic delay. Conclusions: L ong diagnostic delay i s associated with worse o utcome c haracterized by t he development o f increased bowel damage, n ecessitating more frequently operations in t he years following CD d iagnosis. Efforts should be undertaken to shorten the diagnostic delay.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Is it appropriate to index glomerular filtration rate for body surface area

Purpose: Obesity is an established independent risk factor for chronic kidney disease. Thus, measurement of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in this population. Traditionally, GFR has been indexed for body surface area (BSA), but this indexation may not be appropriate in obese individuals. Therefore, the objective of the study was to compare absolute GFR with GFR indexed for BSA and with GFR indexed for height. Methods and materials: The study was conducted in 66 families from the Seychelles islands that included several members with hypertension. GFR and effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) were measured using inulin and PAH clearances, respectively. Antihypertensive treatment, if used, was withheld 2 weeks before conducting the clearances. Participants with diabetes mellitus were excluded from the analysis. BSA was calculated using the Dubois formula. We assessed trend across BMI categories using a non parametric test. Results: Participants included 174 women and 127 men. The prevalence of hypertension was 61%, of which 68% were treated. The table shows that absolute GFR, GFR indexed for height, ERPF, filtration fraction were significantly higher across BMI categories. When GFR was indexed for BSA, the association between GFR and BMI categories was lost. Conclusion: Indexing GFR for BSA in overweight and obese individuals leads to a substantial underestimation of GFR. Filtration fraction, which does not depend on BSA, is higher in obese individuals, which suggests glomerular hyperfiltration. Indexing GFR for BSA therefore would mask the underlying glomerular hyperfiltration. As the number of nephrons does not increase with weight gain, absolute GFR represents a better marker of single nephron GFR and is more appropriate.

Issue review : impact on the insurance premium tax rate reduction .

In 2002, Senate File 2318, Insurance Premium Tax Reduction Act, the Iowa General Assembly approved a reduction in the insurance premium tax rate from 2 percent to 1 percent. The reduction was phased in at the rate of 1/4 percent annual increments over a five-year period, beginning with life and health insurance policy payments made on or after January 1st, 2003. Calendar year 2007 was the first year all premiums were taxed at 1 percent and fiscal year 2008 was the first full fiscal year at the 1 percent rate. Insurance premiums tax is paid only by insurance companies. The companies that benefit from the tax reduction are uniquely identified in government employment statistics. This allows for a unique opportunity to evaluate both the revenue impact and the employment impact of the tax rate reduction in Senate File 2318. This issue review focuses on the General Fund revenue impact of the rate reduction and the Iowa employment trends for the insurance industry since the rate reduction legislation was approved.

Activation/division of lymphocytes results in increased levels of cytoplasmic activation/proliferation-associated protein-1: prototype of a new family of proteins.

We purified from activated T lymphocytes a novel, highly conserved, 116-kDa, intracellular protein that occurred at high levels in the large, dividing cells of the thymus, was up-regulated when resting T or B lymphocytes or hemopoietic progenitors were activated, and was down-regulated when a monocytic leukemia, M1, was induced to differentiate. Expression of the protein was highest in the thymus and spleen and lowest in tissues with a low proportion of dividing cells such as kidney or muscle, although expression was high in the brain. The protein was localized to the cytosol and was phosphorylated, which is consistent with a previous report that the Xenopus laevis ortholog was phosphorylated by a mitotically activated kinase (1 ). The cDNA was previously mischaracterized as encoding p137, a 137-kDa GPI-linked membrane protein (2 ). We propose that the authentic protein encoded by this cDNA be called cytoplasmic activation/proliferation-associated protein-1 (caprin-1), and show that it is the prototype of a novel family of proteins characterized by two novel protein domains, termed homology regions-1 and -2 (HR-1, HR-2). Although we have found evidence for caprins only in urochordates and vertebrates, two insect proteins exhibit well-conserved HR-1 domains. The HR-1 and HR-2 domains have no known function, although the HR-1 of caprin-1 appeared necessary for formation of multimeric complexes of caprin-1. Overexpression of a fusion protein of enhanced green fluorescent protein and caprin-1 induced a specific, dose-dependent suppression of the proliferation of NIH-3T3 cells, consistent with the notion that caprin-1 plays a role in cellular activation or proliferation.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

The effect of obesity, age, puberty and gender on resting metabolic rate in children and adolescents.

During puberty fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) change quickly and these changes are influenced by sex and obesity. Since it is not completely known how these changes affect resting metabolic rate (RMR), the aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of body composition, age, sex and pubertal development of postabsorptive RMR in 9.5- to 16.5- year-old obese and non-obese children. Postabsorptive RMR was measured in a sample of 371 pre- and postpubertal children comprising 193 males (116 non-obese and 77 obese) and 178 females (119 non-obese and 59 obese). RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 45 min after an overnight fast. Body composition (FFM and FM) was estimated from skinfold measurements. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was significantly (P < 0.001) lower in non-obese (males: 5600 +/- 972 kJ/24 h; females: 5112 +/- 632 kJ/24 h) than in obese (males: 7223 +/- 1220 kJ/24 h; females: 6665 +/- 1106 kJ/24 h) children. This difference became non-significant when RMR was adjusted for body composition (FFM+FM). However, the difference between the genders still remained significant (control male: 6118 +/- 507, control female: 5652 +/- 507, P < 0.001; obese male: 6256 +/- 507, obese female: 5818 +/- 507 kJ/24 h, P < 0.001). The main determinant of RMR was FFM. In the whole cohort. FFM explained 79.8% of the variation in RMR, followed by age, gender and FM adding further 3.8%, 1.1% and 0.8% to the predictability of RMR, respectively. No significant contribution for study group (obese, non-obese), pubertal stage, or fat distribution was found in the regression for RMR. The adjusted value of RMR (for FFM and FM) slightly, but significantly (P < 0.01) decreased between the age of 10-16 years, demonstrating the important effect of age on RMR. CONCLUSIONS: The resting metabolic rate of obese and control children is not different when adjusted for body composition. The main determinant of RMR is the fat-free mass, however, age, gender and fat mass are also significant factors. Pubertal development and fat distribution do not influence RMR independently from the changes in body composition.

Factors affecting the attack rate of Bemisia tabaci on cucumber

The objective of this work was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, predators, parasitoids, plant age, leaf chemical composition, levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium, besides density of leaf trichomes, on attack intensity of Bemisia tabaci biotype B on the Cucumis sativus. An increase in the number of whitefly adults and nymphs per leaf was observed with plant aging. A higher number of whitefly adults per leaf and eggs cm-2 was verified in the apical part than in the middle and bottom part of the plants canopy. However, the higher number of whitefly nymphs was observed in the mid-part than in the apical and bottom part of the plant canopy. The incidence of whitefly nymphs was negatively affected with foliar nitrogen. Pentacosane and octacosane positively affected whitefly adults and the first compound also affected the nymphs of this pest species.

Cognate microRNA-Gene Regulatory Networks Mediating Glioblastoma Oncogenic Properties

Malignant gliomas, including the most common and fatal form glioblastoma (GBM, WHO grade IV astrocytoma), remain a challenge to treat. In the United States and Europe, more than 30,000 patients per year are newly diagnosed with GBM. Despite ongoing trials, the best currently available multimodal treatment approaches include surgical resection followed by concomitant and adjuvant radiation (RT) and temozolomide (TMZ) therapy, resulting in a low median overall survival (OS) rate ranging from 12.2 - 15.9 months. The important role of genetic and epigenetic changes in DNA, RNA, and protein alteration as well as epigenetic changes secondary to the tumor microenvironment and outside selection pressure (therapeutic interventions), are increasingly being recognized. In GBM treatment, the focus is shifting toward a more patient-centered (personalized) therapy. In this regard, in particular, microRNAs are being increasingly studied. MicroRNAs are non¬protein coding small RNAs that serve as negative gene regulators by binding to a specific sequence in the promoter region of a target gene, thus regulating gene expression. A single microRNA potentially targets hundreds of genes; thus, microRNAs and their cognate target genes have important roles as tumor suppressors and oncogenes as well as regulators of various cancer- specific cellular features, such as proliferation, apoptosis, invasion, and metastasis. The identification of distinct microRNA-gene regulatory networks in GBM patients can be expected to provide novel therapeutic insights by identifying candidate patients for targeted therapies. To this end, in this work we identified and validated clinically relevant and meaningful novel gene- microRNA regulatory networks that correlated with MR tumor phenotypes, histopathology, and patient survival and response rates to therapy. - Le traitement des gliomes malins, y compris sous leur forme la plus commune et meurtrière, le glioblastome (GBM, ou astrocytome de grade IV selon l'OMS), demeure à ce jour un défi. Aux États-Unis et en Europe, un nouveau diagnostic de GBM est prononcé dans plus de 30Ό00 cas par an. En dépit de tests en cours, les meilleures approches thérapeutiques combinées actuellement disponibles comprennent la résection chirurgicale de la tumeur, suivie d'une radiothérapie adjuvante ainsi que d'un traitement au temozolomide (RT/TMZ), thérapies dont résulte une médiane de survie globale basse (overall survival, OS), comprise entre 12.2 et 15.9 mois. On reconnaît de plus en plus le rôle majeur de l'ADN, de l'ARN et de l'altération des protéines ainsi que des modifications épigénétiques, secondaires par rapport au microenvironnement de la tumeur et à la pression de sélection extérieure (les interventions thérapeutiques). Dans le traitement du GBM, le centre d'intérêt se déplace vers une thérapie centrée sur le cas individuel du patient. Dans ce but, en particulier les microARN sont de plus en plus analysés. Les microARN sont de petits ARN non-codants (les protéines) qui servent de régulateurs négatifs de gènes en s'attachant à une séquence spécifique dans la région promotrice d'un gène-cible, régulant ainsi l'expression du gène. Un seul microARN cible potentiellement des centaines de gènes; on a ainsi découvert que les microARN et leurs gènes-cibles apparentés ont une fonction importante en tant que suppresseurs de tumeurs et d'oncogènes, ainsi que comme régulateurs de diverses caractéristiques cellulaires spécifiques du cancer, comme la prolifération, l'apoptose, l'invasion et la métastase. On peut s'attendre à ce que l'identification de réseaux microARN régulateurs de gènes, distincts selon les patients de GBM, fournisse une approche thérapeutique inédite par la détermination des patients susceptibles de réagir favorablement à des thérapies ciblées.

Role of lymph node fibroblasts in T cell priming

SummarySecondary lymphoid organs, such as lymph nodes or spleen, are the only places in our body where primary adaptive immune responses are efficiently elicited. These organs have distinct Β and Τ cell rich zones and Τ lymphocytes constantly migrate from the bloodstream into Τ zones to scan dendritic cells (DCs) for antigens they present. Specialized fibroblasts, the Τ zone reticular cells (HR.Cs), span the Τ zone in the form a three-dimensional network. lK.Cs guide incoming Τ cells in their migration, both chemically, by the secretion of the chemokines CCL19 and CCL21, and physically, by construction of a road system to which also DCs adhere. In this way TRCs are thought to facilitate encounters of Τ cells with antigen-bearing DCs and thereby accelerate the selection of rare antigen-specific Τ cells. The resulting Τ cell activation, proliferation and differentiation all take place within the TRC network. However, the influence of TRCs on Τ cell activation has so fer not been elucidated with the possible reasons being that TRCs represent a relative rare cell population and that mice devoid of TRCs have not been described.To circumvent these technical limitations, we established TRC clones and lines to have an abundant source to functionally characterize TRCs. Both the clones and lines show a fibroblastic phenotype, express a surface marker profile comparable to ex vivo TRCs and produce extracellular matrix molecules. However, expression of Ccl19, Ccl21 and ZL-7 is lost and could not be restored by cytokine stimulation. When these TRC clones or lines were cultured in a three-dimensional cell culture system, their morphology changed and resembled that of in vivo TRCs as they formed networks. By adding Τ cells and antigen-loaded DCs to these cultures we successfully reconstructed lymphoid Τ zones that allowed antigen-specific Τ cell activation.To characterize the role of TRCs in Τ cell priming, TRCs were co-cultured with antigen-specific Τ cells in the presence antigen-loaded DCs. Surprisingly, the presence of TRC lines and ex vivo TRCs inhibited rather than enhanced CD8+ Τ cell activation, proliferation and effector cell differentiation. TRCs shared this feature with fibroblasts from non-lymphoid tissues as well as mesenchymal stromal cells. TRCs were identified as a strong source of nitric oxide (NO) thereby directly dampening Τ cell expansion as well as reducing the Τ cell priming capacity of DCs. The expression of inducible NO synthase (iNOS) was up- regulated in a subset of TRCs by both DC-signals as well as interferon-γ produced by primed CD8+ Τ cells. Importantly, iNOS expression was induced during viral infection in vivo in both lymph node TRCs and DCs. Consistent with a role for NO as a negative regulator, the primary Τ cell response was exaggerated in iNOS-/- mice. Our findings highlight that in addition to their established positive roles in Τ cell responses TRCs and DCs cooperate in a negative feedback loop to attenuate Τ cell expansion during acute inflammation.RésuméLes organes lymphoïdes secondaires, comme les ganglions lymphoïdes ou la rate, sont les seuls sites dans notre corps où la réponse primaire des lymphocytes Β et Τ est initiée efficacement. Ces organes ont des zones différentes, riches en cellules Β ou T. Des lymphocytes Τ circulent constamment du sang vers les zones T, où ils échantillonent la surface des cellules dendritiques (DCs) pour identifier les antigènes qu'ils présentent. Des fibroblastes spécialisés - nommés Τ zone reticular cells (TRCs)' forment un réseau tridimensionnel dans la zone T. Les TRCs guident la migration des cellules Τ par deux moyens: chimiquement, par la sécrétion des chimiokines CCL19 et CCL21 et physiquement, par la construction d'un réseau routier en trois dimensions, auquel adhèrent aussi des DCs. Dans ce? cas, on pense que la présence des TRCs facilite les rencontres entre les cellules Τ et les DCs chargées de l'antigène et accélère la sélection des rares cellules Τ spécifiques. Ensuite, l'activation de cellules T, ainsi que la prolifération et la différenciation se produisent toutes à l'intérieur du réseau des TRCs. L'influence des TRCs sur l'activation des cellules T n'est que très peu caractérisée, en partie parce que les TRCs représentent une population rare et que les souris déficientes dans les TRCs n'ont pas encore été découvertes.Pour contourner ces limitations techniques, nous avons établi des clones et des lignées cellulaires de TRC pour obtenir une source indéfinie de ces cellules permettant leur caractérisation fonctionnelle. Les clones et lignées établis ont un phénotype de fibroblaste, ils expriment des molécules de surface similaires aux TRCs ex vivo et produisent de la matrice extracellulaire. Mais l'expression de Ccl19, Ccl21 et 11-7 est perdue et ne peut pas être rétablie par stimulation avec différentes cytokines. Les clones TRC ou les lignées cultivées en un système tridimensionnel de culture cellulaire, montrent une morphologie changée, qui ressemble à celle de TRC ex vivo inclus la construction de réseaux tridimensionnels.Pour caractériser le rôle des TRC dans l'activation des cellules T, nous avons cultivé des TRCs avec des cellules T spécifiques et des DCs chargées avec l'antigène. Etonnamment, la présence des TRC (lignées et ex vivo) inhibait plutôt qu'elle améliorait l'activation, la prolifération et la différenciation des lymphocytes T CDS+. Les TRCs partageaient cette fonction avec des fibr-oblastes des organes non lymphoïdes et des cellules souches du type mésenchymateux. Dans ces conditions, les TRCs sont une source importante d'oxyde nitrique (NO) et par ce fait limitent directement l'expansion des cellules T et réduisent aussi la capacité des DCs à activer les cellules T. L'expression de l'enzyme NO synthase inductible (ïNOS) est régulée à la hausse par des signaux dérivés des DCs et par l'interféron-γ produit par des cellules T de type CD8+ activées. Plus important, l'expression d'iNOS est induite pendant une infection virale in vivo, dans les TRCs et dans les DCs. Par conséquent, la réponse primaire de cellules T est exagérée dans des souris iNOS-/-. Nos résultats mettent en évidence qu'en plus de leur rôle positif bien établi dans la réponse immunitaire, les TRCs et les DCs coopèrent dans une boucle de rétroaction négative pour atténuer l'expansion des cellules T pendant l'inflammation aigiie pour protéger l'intégrité et la fonctionnalité des organes lymphoïdes secondaires.

Visual cortex in Alzheimer's disease: occurrence of neuronal death and glial proliferation, and correlation with pathological hallmarks.

Visual areas 17 and 18 were studied with morphometric methods for numbers of neurons, glia, senile plaques (SP), and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in 13 cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) as compared to 11 controls. In AD cases, the mean neuronal density was significantly decreased by about 30% in both areas 17 and 18, while the glial density was increased significantly only in area 17. The volume of area 17 was unchanged in AD cases but its total number of neurons was decreased by 33% and its total number of glia increased by 45% compared to controls. In AD the number of SP was similar in areas 17 and 18, while that of NFT was significantly higher in area 18. The number of neurons with NFT was only 2% in area 17 and about 10% in area 18. The discrepancy between the loss of neurons and the amount of NFT suggests that neuronal loss can occur without passing through NFT degeneration. The deposition of SP was correlated with glial proliferation, but not with neuronal loss or neurofibrillary degeneration.

Enhancement of oxidation rate of a-Si nanoparticles during dehydrogenation

Oxidation of amorphous silicon (a-Si) nanoparticles grown by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition were investigated. Their hydrogen content has a great influence on the oxidation rate at low temperature. When the mass gain is recorded during a heating ramp in dry air, an oxidation process at low temperature is identified with an onset around 250°C. This temperature onset is similar to that of hydrogen desorption. It is shown that the oxygen uptake during this process almost equals the number of hydrogen atoms present in the nanoparticles. To explain this correlation, we propose that oxidation at low temperature is triggered by the process of hydrogen desorption

Improving Portland Cement Concrete Mix Consistency and Production Rate through Two-Stage Mixing, TR-505, 2007

A two-stage mixing process for concrete involves mixing a slurry of cementitious materials and water, then adding the slurry to coarse and fine aggregate to form concrete. Some research has indicated that this process might facilitate dispersion of cementitious materials and improve cement hydration, the characteristics of the interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between aggregate and paste, and concrete homogeneity. The goal of the study was to find optimal mixing procedures for production of a homogeneous and workable mixture and quality concrete using a two-stage mixing operation. The specific objectives of the study are as follows: (1) To achieve optimal mixing energy and time for a homogeneous cementitious material, (2) To characterize the homogeneity and flow property of the pastes, (3) To investigate effective methods for coating aggregate particles with cement slurry, (4) To study the effect of the two-stage mixing procedure on concrete properties, (5) To obtain the improved production rates. Parameters measured for Phase I included: heat of hydration, maturity, and rheology tests were performed on the fresh paste samples, and compressive strength, degree of hydration, and scanning electron microscope (SEM) imaging tests were conducted on the cured specimens. For Phases II and III tests included slump and air content on fresh concrete and compressive and tensile strengths, rapid air void analysis, and rapid chloride permeability on hardened concrete.