Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited. value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those. used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three. nonlinear alternatives that were ball of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested,, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Octanol-water partition coefficients for predicting the effects of tannins in ruminant nutrition

Tannins can cause beneficial or harmful nutritional effects, but their great diversity has until now prevented a rational distinction between tannin structures and their nutritional responses. An attempt has been made to study this problem by examining the octanol-water solubilities of tannins. A relatively simple HPLC method has been developed for screening mixtures of plant tannins for their octanol-water partition coefficients (K-ow coefficients). Tannins were isolated from the fruits and leaves of different Acacia, Calliandra, Dichrostachys, and Piliostigma species, which are known to produce beneficial or harmful effects. The K-ow coefficients of these tannins ranged from 0.061 to 13.9, average coefficients of variation were 9.2% and recoveries were 107%. Acacia nilotica fruits and leaves had the highest K-ow coefficients, that is, 2.0 and 13.9, respectively. These A. nilotica products also have high concentrations of tannins. The combined effects of high octanol solubilities and high tannin concentrations may explain their negative effects on animal nutrition and health. It is known that compounds with high octanol solubilities are more easily absorbed into tissues, and it is, therefore, proposed that such compounds are more likely to cause toxicity problems especially if consumed in large quantities. According to the literature, tannins in human foods tend to have low K-ow coefficients, and this was confirmed for the tannins in Piliostigma thonningii fruits. Therefore, unconventional feeds or browse products should be screened not only for their tannin concentrations but also for low octanol-water partition coefficients in order to identify nutritionally safe feeds and to avoid potentially toxic feeds.

Predicting the effects of nitrogen and planting density on maize water use in semi-arid Kenya

Models are important tools to assess the scope of management effects on crop productivity under different climatic and soil regimes. Accordingly, this study developed and used a simple model to assess the effects of nitrogen fertiliser and planting density on the water use efficiency (q) of maize in semi-arid Kenya. Field experiments were undertaken at Sonning, Berkshire, UK, in 1996 (one sowing) and 1997 (two sowings). The results from the field experiments plus soil and weather data for Machakos, Kenya (1 degree 33'S, 37 degree 14'E and 1560 m above sea level), were then used to predict the effects that N application and planting density may have on water use by a maize crop grown in semi-arid Kenya. The increase in q due to N application was greater under irrigated (15%-19%) than rainfed (7%-8%) conditions. Also, high planting density increased q (by 13%) under irrigation but decreased q (by 17%) under rainfed conditions. The current study has shown the significance of crop modelling techniques in assessing the influence of N and planting density on maize production in one region of semi-arid Kenya where there is high variability of rainfall.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting the functional consequences of amino-acid polymorphisms

Genetic polymorphisms in deoxyribonucleic acid coding regions may have a phenotypic effect on the carrier, e.g. by influencing susceptibility to disease. Detection of deleterious mutations via association studies is hampered by the large number of candidate sites; therefore methods are needed to narrow down the search to the most promising sites. For this, a possible approach is to use structural and sequence-based information of the encoded protein to predict whether a mutation at a particular site is likely to disrupt the functionality of the protein itself. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) model for supervised learning in this context and assess its predictive performance by using data from mutagenesis experiments on lac repressor and lysozyme proteins. In these experiments, about 12 amino-acid substitutions were performed at each native amino-acid position and the effect on protein functionality was assessed. The training data thus consist of repeated observations at each position, which the hierarchical framework is needed to account for. The model is trained on the lac repressor data and tested on the lysozyme mutations and vice versa. In particular, we show that the hierarchical BMARS model, by allowing for the clustered nature of the data, yields lower out-of-sample misclassification rates compared with both a BMARS and a frequen-tist MARS model, a support vector machine classifier and an optimally pruned classification tree.

Aqueous peroxyl radical exposure to THP-1 cells causes glutathione loss followed by protein oxidation and cell death without increased caspase-3 activity

Protein oxidation within cells exposed to oxidative free radicals has been reported to occur in an uninhibited manner with both hydroxyl and peroxyl radicals. In contrast, THP-1 cells exposed to peroxyl radicals (ROO center dot) generated by thermo decomposition of the azo compound AAPH showed a distinct lag phase of at least 6 h, during which time no protein oxidation or cell death was observed. Glutathione appears to be the source of the lag phase as cellular levels were observed to rapidly decrease during this period. Removal of glutathione with buthionine sulfoxamine eliminated the lag phase. At the end of the lag phase there was a rapid loss of cellular MTT reducing activity and the appearance of large numbers of propidium iodide/annexin-V staining necrotic cells with only 10% of the cells appearing apoptotic (annexin-V staining only). Cytochrome c was released into the cytoplasm after 12 h of incubation but no increase in caspase-3 activity was found at any time points. We propose that the rapid loss of glutathione caused by the AAPH peroxyl radicals resulted in the loss of caspase activity and the initiation of protein oxidation. The lack of caspase-3 activity appears to have caused the cells to undergo necrosis in response to protein oxidation and other cellular damage. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the functional response of a farmland bird

1. Mechanistic models may be able to predict how changes in agricultural practice influence farmland bird populations. A key component of these models is the link between food and competitor densities and the rate at which birds consume food, i.e. the functional response. 2. This paper tests whether the functional response of a farmland bird, the rook Corvus frugilegus, can be predicted from three parameters: searching speed, food detection distance and handling time. It is often difficult to measure the functional response of farmland birds directly, but it may be possible to measure behavioural parameters more quickly. 3. We performed experiments in which rooks fed on a range of artificial food densities in two grass sward heights. Food detection distance was greater in the shorter sward, but sward height did not influence searching speed or handling time. The functional response could be accurately predicted in both sward heights. 4. We show that the functional response of a farmland bird can be predicted from parameters that can be measured more quickly than the alternative of measuring the functional response directly. This implies that the functional responses of other farmland birds may be predicted using a minimum of information.

Predicting functional gene links from phylogenetic-statistical analyses of whole genomes

An important element of the developing field of proteomics is to understand protein-protein interactions and other functional links amongst genes. Across-species correlation methods for detecting functional links work on the premise that functionally linked proteins will tend to show a common pattern of presence and absence across a range of genomes. We describe a maximum likelihood statistical model for predicting functional gene linkages. The method detects independent instances of the correlated gain or loss of pairs of proteins on phylogenetic trees, reducing the high rates of false positives observed in conventional across-species methods that do not explicitly incorporate a phylogeny. We show, in a dataset of 10,551 protein pairs, that the phylogenetic method improves by up to 35% on across-species analyses at identifying known functionally linked proteins. The method shows that protein pairs with at least two to three correlated events of gain or loss are almost certainly functionally linked. Contingent evolution, in which one gene's presence or absence depends upon the presence of another, can also be detected phylogenetically, and may identify genes whose functional significance depends upon its interaction with other genes. Incorporating phylogenetic information improves the prediction of functional linkages. The improvement derives from having a lower rate of false positives and from detecting trends that across-species analyses miss. Phylogenetic methods can easily be incorporated into the screening of large-scale bioinformatics datasets to identify sets of protein links and to characterise gene networks.

The pro-inflammatory oxidant hypochlorous acid induces Bax-dependent mitochondrial permeabilisation and cell death through AIF-/EndoG-dependent pathways

At sites of chronic inflammation, such as in the inflamed rheumatoid joint, activated neutrophils release hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and the enzyme myeloperoxidase to catalyse the formation of hypochlorous acid (HOCl). 3-chlorotyrosine, a marker of HOCl in vivo, has been observed in synovial fluid proteins from rheumatoid arthritis patients. However the mechanisms of HOCl-induced cytotxicity are unknown. We determined the molecular mechanisms by which HOCl induced cell death in human mesenchymal progenitor cells (MPCs) differentiated into a chondrocytic phenotype as a model of human cartilage cells and show that HOCl induced rapid Bax conformational change, mitochondrial permeability and release of intra-mitochondrial pro-apoptotic proteins which resulted in nuclear translocation of AIF and EndoG. siRNA-mediated knockdown of Bax substantially prevented mitochondrial permeability, release of intra-mitochondrial pro-apoptotic proteins. Cell death was inhibited by siRNA-mediated knockdown of Bax, AIF or EndoG. Although we observed several biochemical markers of apoptosis, caspase activation was not detected either by western blotting, fluorescence activity assays or by using caspase inhibitors to inhibit cell death. This was further supported by findings that (1) in vitro exposure of recombinant human caspases to HOCl caused significant inhibition of caspase activity and (2) the addition of HOCl to staurosporine-treated MPCs inhibited the activity of cellular caspases. Our results show for the first time that HOCl induced Bax-dependent mitochondrial permeability which led to cell death without caspase activity by processes involving AIF/EndoG-dependent pathways. Our study provides a novel insight into the potential mechanisms of cell death in the inflamed human joint. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterisation of cell death in bagged baby salad leaves

Baby leaf salads are gaining in popularity over traditional whole head lettuce salads in response to consumer demand for greater variety and convenience in their diet. Baby lettuce leaves are mixed, washed and packaged as whole leaves, with a shelf-life of approximately 10 days post-processing. End of shelf-life, as determined by the consumer, is typified by bruising, water-logging and blackening of the leaves, but the biological events causing this phenotype have not been studied to date. We investigated the physiological and ultrastructural characteristics during postharvest shelf-life of two lettuce varieties with very different leaf morphologies. Membrane disruption was an important determinant of cell death in both varieties. although the timing and characteristics of breakdown was different in each with Lollo rossa showing signs of aging such as thylakoid disruption and plastoglobuli accumulation earlier than Cos. Membranes in Lollo rossa showed a later, but more distinct increase in permeability than in Cos. as indicated by electrolyte leakage and the presence of cytoplasmic fragments in the vacuole, but Cos membranes show distinct fractures towards the end of shelf-life. The tissue lost less than 25% fresh weight during shelf-life and there was little protein loss compared to developmentally aging leaves in an ambient environment. Biophysical measurements showed that breakstrength was significantly reduced in Lollo rossa, whereas irreversible leaf plasticity was significantly reduced in Cos leaves. The reversible elastic properties of both varieties changed throughout shelf-life. We compared the characteristics of shelf-life in both varieties of bagged lettuce leaves with other leafy salad crops and discuss the potential targets for future work to improve postharvest quality of baby leaf lettuce. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Morphological and physiological changes induced by high hydrostatic pressure in exponential- and stationary-phase cells of Escherichia coli: relationship with cell death

The relationship between a loss of viability and several morphological and physiological changes was examined with Escherichia coli strain J1 subjected to high-pressure treatment. The pressure resistance of stationary-phase cells was much higher than that of exponential-phase cells, but in both types of cell, aggregation of cytoplasmic proteins and condensation of the nucleoid occurred after treatment at 200 MPa for 8 min. Although gross changes were detected in these cellular structures, they were not related to cell death, at least for stationary-phase cells. In addition to these events, exponential-phase cells showed changes in their cell envelopes that were not seen for stationary-phase cells, namely physical perturbations of the cell envelope structure, a loss of osmotic responsiveness, and a loss of protein and RNA to the extracellular medium. Based on these observations, we propose that exponential-phase cells are inactivated under high pressure by irreversible damage to the cell membrane. In contrast, stationary-phase cells have a cytoplasmic membrane that is robust enough to withstand pressurization up to very intense treatments. The retention of an intact membrane appears to allow the stationary-phase cell to repair gross changes in other cellular structures and to remain viable at pressures that are lethal to exponential-phase cells.

Predicting the thermal inactivation of bacteria in a solid matrix: simulation studies on the relative effects of microbial thermal resistance parameters and process conditions

A combined mathematical model for predicting heat penetration and microbial inactivation in a solid body heated by conduction was tested experimentally by inoculating agar cylinders with Salmonella typhimurium or Enterococcus faecium and heating in a water bath. Regions of growth where bacteria had survived after heating were measured by image analysis and compared with model predictions. Visualisation of the regions of growth was improved by incorporating chromogenic metabolic indicators into the agar. Preliminary tests established that the model performed satisfactorily with both test organisms and with cylinders of different diameter. The model was then used in simulation studies in which the parameters D, z, inoculum size, cylinder diameter and heating temperature were systematically varied. These simulations showed that the biological variables D, z and inoculum size had a relatively small effect on the time needed to eliminate bacteria at the cylinder axis in comparison with the physical variables heating temperature and cylinder diameter, which had a much greater relative effect. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.