Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Patient-specific finite-element simulation of the human cornea: A clinical validation study on cataract surgery

The planning of refractive surgical interventions is a challenging task. Numerical modeling has been proposed as a solution to support surgical intervention and predict the visual acuity, but validation on patient specific intervention is missing. The purpose of this study was to validate the numerical predictions of the post-operative corneal topography induced by the incisions required for cataract surgery. The corneal topography of 13 patients was assessed preoperatively and postoperatively (1-day and 30-day follow-up) with a Pentacam tomography device. The preoperatively acquired geometric corneal topography – anterior, posterior and pachymetry data – was used to build patient-specific finite element models. For each patient, the effects of the cataract incisions were simulated numerically and the resulting corneal surfaces were compared to the clinical postoperative measurements at one day and at 30-days follow up. Results showed that the model was able to reproduce experimental measurements with an error on the surgically induced sphere of 0.38D one day postoperatively and 0.19D 30 days postoperatively. The standard deviation of the surgically induced cylinder was 0.54D at the first postoperative day and 0.38D 30 days postoperatively. The prediction errors in surface elevation and curvature were below the topography measurement device accuracy of ±5μm and ±0.25D after the 30-day follow-up. The results showed that finite element simulations of corneal biomechanics are able to predict post cataract surgery within topography measurement device accuracy. We can conclude that the numerical simulation can become a valuable tool to plan corneal incisions in cataract surgery and other ophthalmosurgical procedures in order to optimize patients' refractive outcome and visual function.

A tephrostratigraphic record for the last glacial-interglacial cycle from Lake Ohrid, Albania and Macedonia

ABSTRACT: Here we present a tephrostratigraphic record (core Co1202) recovered from the northeastern part of Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania) reaching back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Overall ten horizons (OT0702-1 to OT0702-10) containing volcanic tephra have been recognised throughout the 14.94m long sediment succession. Four tephra layers were visible at macroscopic inspection (OT0702-4, OT0702-6, OT0702-8 and OT0702-9), while the remaining six are cryptotephras (OT0702-1, OT0702-2, OT0702-3, OT0702-5, OT0702-7 and OT0702-10) identified from peaks in K, Zr and Sr intensities, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and washing and sieving of the sediments. Glass shards of tephra layers and cryptotephras were analysed with respect to their major element composition, and correlated to explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes. The stratigraphy and the major element composition of tephra layers and cryptotephras allowed the correlation of OT0702-1 to AD 472 or AD 512 eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-2 to the FL eruption of Mount Etna, OT0702-3 to the Mercato from Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-4 to SMP1-e/Y-3 eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-5 to the Codola eruption (Somma-Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei), OT0702-6 to the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702- 7 to the Green Tuff/Y-6 eruption from Pantelleria Island, OT0702-8 to the X-5 eruption probably originating from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-9 to the X-6 eruption of generic Campanian origin, and OT0702-10 to the P-11 eruption from Pantelleria Island. The fairly well-known ages of these tephra layers and parent eruptions provide new data on the dispersal and deposition of these tephras and, furthermore, allow the establishment of a chronological framework for core Co1202 for a first interpretation of major sedimentological changes.

High resolution quantitative computed tomography-based assessment of trabecular microstructure and strength estimates by finite-element analysis of the spine, but not DXA, reflects vertebral fracture status in men with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis

High-resolution quantitative computed tomography (HRQCT)-based analysis of spinal bone density and microstructure, finite element analysis (FEA), and DXA were used to investigate the vertebral bone status of men with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIO). DXA of L1–L3 and total hip, QCT of L1–L3, and HRQCT of T12 were available for 73 men (54.6±14.0years) with GIO. Prevalent vertebral fracture status was evaluated on radiographs using a semi-quantitative (SQ) score (normal=0 to severe fracture=3), and the spinal deformity index (SDI) score (sum of SQ scores of T4 to L4 vertebrae). Thirty-one (42.4%) subjects had prevalent vertebral fractures. Cortical BMD (Ct.BMD) and thickness (Ct.Th), trabecular BMD (Tb.BMD), apparent trabecular bone volume fraction (app.BV/TV), and apparent trabecular separation (app.Tb.Sp) were analyzed by HRQCT. Stiffness and strength of T12 were computed by HRQCT-based nonlinear FEA for axial compression, anterior bending and axial torsion. In logistic regressions adjusted for age, glucocorticoid dose and osteoporosis treatment, Tb.BMD was most closely associated with vertebral fracture status (standardized odds ratio [sOR]: Tb.BMD T12: 4.05 [95% CI: 1.8–9.0], Tb.BMD L1–L3: 3.95 [1.8–8.9]). Strength divided by cross-sectional area for axial compression showed the most significant association with spine fracture status among FEA variables (2.56 [1.29–5.07]). SDI was best predicted by a microstructural model using Ct.Th and app.Tb.Sp (r2=0.57, p<0.001). Spinal or hip DXA measurements did not show significant associations with fracture status or severity. In this cross-sectional study of males with GIO, QCT, HRQCT-based measurements and FEA variables were superior to DXA in discriminating between patients of differing prevalent vertebral fracture status. A microstructural model combining aspects of cortical and trabecular bone reflected fracture severity most accurately.

Spectroscopy of element 115 decay chains

A high-resolution α, x-ray, and γ-ray coincidence spectroscopy experiment was conducted at the GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung. Thirty correlated α-decay chains were detected following the fusion-evaporation reaction Ca48+Am243. The observations are consistent with previous assignments of similar decay chains to originate from element Z=115. For the first time, precise spectroscopy allows the derivation of excitation schemes of isotopes along the decay chains starting with elements Z>112. Comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations accompany the data analysis. Nuclear structure models provide a first level interpretation.

Genetic testing for TMEM154 mutations associated with lentivirus susceptibility in sheep.

In sheep, small ruminant lentiviruses cause an incurable, progressive, lymphoproliferative disease that affects millions of animals worldwide. Known as ovine progressive pneumonia virus (OPPV) in the U.S., and Visna/Maedi virus (VMV) elsewhere, these viruses reduce an animal's health, productivity, and lifespan. Genetic variation in the ovine transmembrane protein 154 gene (TMEM154) has been previously associated with OPPV infection in U.S. sheep. Sheep with the ancestral TMEM154 haplotype encoding glutamate (E) at position 35, and either form of an N70I variant, were highly-susceptible compared to sheep homozygous for the K35 missense mutation. Our current overall aim was to characterize TMEM154 in sheep from around the world to develop an efficient genetic test for reduced susceptibility. The average frequency of TMEM154 E35 among 74 breeds was 0.51 and indicated that highly-susceptible alleles were present in most breeds around the world. Analysis of whole genome sequences from an international panel of 75 sheep revealed more than 1,300 previously unreported polymorphisms in a 62 kb region containing TMEM154 and confirmed that the most susceptible haplotypes were distributed worldwide. Novel missense mutations were discovered in the signal peptide (A13V) and the extracellular domains (E31Q, I74F, and I102T) of TMEM154. A matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) assay was developed to detect these and six previously reported missense and two deletion mutations in TMEM154. In blinded trials, the call rate for the eight most common coding polymorphisms was 99.4% for 499 sheep tested and 96.0% of the animals were assigned paired TMEM154 haplotypes (i.e., diplotypes). The widespread distribution of highly-susceptible TMEM154 alleles suggests that genetic testing and selection may improve the health and productivity of infected flocks.

Serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility of group B streptococci in pregnant women: results from a Swiss tertiary centre.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the rates of penicillin, clindamycin and erythromycin resistance and the serotype distribution among isolates of group B streptococcus (GBS) obtained from pregnant women at the University Hospital of Bern in Switzerland. METHODS We prospectively collected screening samples for GBS colonisation at the University Women's Hospital Bern, Switzerland, between March 2009 and August 2010. We included 364 GBS isolates collected from vaginal, cervical or vaginal-perianal swabs at any gestation time. The minimal inhibitory concentrations for penicillin, clindamycin and erythromycin were established using Etest with 24 hours of incubation, and inducible clindamycin resistance was tested with double disk diffusion tests. Serotyping was done with a rapid latex agglutination test or, if not conclusive, with polymerase chain-reaction (PCR) testing. We looked for significant associations between resistance patterns, age groups, serotype and ethnicity. RESULTS All isolates were susceptible to penicillin. Resistance rates were 14.5% for erythromycin and 8.2% for clindamycin. Of 364 isolates, 5.8% were susceptible to clindamycin but not to erythromycin, although demonstrating inducible clindamycin resistance. Hence, the final reported clindamycin resistance rate was 14%. Serotype III was the most frequent serotype (29%), followed by V (25%) and Ia (19%). Serotype V was associated with erythromycin resistance (p = 0.0007). In comparison with all other ethnicities, patients from Asia showed a higher proportion of erythromycin and clindamycin resistance (p = 0.018). No significant association between resistance patterns and age groups was found. CONCLUSION In pregnant women with GBS colonisation, penicillin is the antibiotic of choice for intrapartum prophylaxis to prevent neonatal early-onset GBS sepsis. In women with penicillin allergy and at high risk for anaphylactic reaction, clindamycin may be an alternative. The resistance rate for clindamycin at our institution was 14%; therefore, susceptibility must be tested before administration.

Genetic variation in genes for the xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 and susceptibility to colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome.

Individuals with Lynch syndrome are predisposed to cancer due to an inherited DNA mismatch repair gene mutation. However, there is significant variability observed in disease expression likely due to the influence of other environmental, lifestyle, or genetic factors. Polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes may modify cancer risk by influencing the metabolism and clearance of potential carcinogens from the body. In this retrospective analysis, we examined key candidate gene polymorphisms in CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTT1, GSTM1, and GSTP1 as modifiers of age at onset of colorectal cancer among 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome. We found that subjects heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V (c.1384A>G) developed colorectal cancer 4 years earlier than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype (median ages, 39 and 43 years, respectively; log-rank test P = 0.018). Furthermore, being heterozygous for the CYP1A1 polymorphisms, I462V and Msp1 (g.6235T>C), was associated with an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer [adjusted hazard ratio for AG relative to AA, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.74; P = 0.008; hazard ratio for TC relative to TT, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.22; P = 0.02]. Because homozygous variants for both CYP1A1 polymorphisms were rare, risk estimates were imprecise. None of the other gene polymorphisms examined were associated with an earlier onset age for colorectal cancer. Our results suggest that the I462V and Msp1 polymorphisms in CYP1A1 may be an additional susceptibility factor for disease expression in Lynch syndrome because they modify the age of colorectal cancer onset by up to 4 years.

A study of the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking among 5th-, 8th-, and 12th-grade students in Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts

This study assessed the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking in the Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts. A convenience sample of 217 youths, 10-19 years of age was recruited in the study. Students completed both a paper-and-pencil and a computer-aided questionnaire in April 1996. Adolescents were defined as susceptible to smoking if they could not definitely rule out the possibility of future smoking. For the analysis, an index was devised: a 5-point index of an individual's receptivity to cigarette advertising. The index is determined by the number of positive responses to five survey items (recognizing cigarette brand logos, recognizing cigarette advertisement's pictures, recognizing cigarette brand slogans, evaluating adolescent attitudes toward cigarette advertising, and the degree to which adolescents were exposed to cigarette advertisements). Using logistic regression, we assessed the independent importance of the index in predicting susceptibility to smoking and ever smoking after adjusting for sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. Of students surveyed, 54.4% of students appeared to have started the smoking uptake process as measured by susceptibility to smoking. Camel was recognized by the majority of students (88%), followed by Marlboro (41.5%) and Newport (40.1%). The pattern for recognition of the cigarette advertisements was the same as the pattern of market for cigarette. Advertisement featuring the cartoon character Joe Camel was significantly more appealing to adolescents than were advertisements with human models, with animal models, and with text only (p $<$ 0.001). Text only advertisement was significantly less appealing than other types of advertisements. The cigarette advertisement with White models (Marlboro) had significantly higher appeal to White students than to African-American students (p $<$ 0.001). The cigarette advertisement featuring African-American models (Virginia Slims) was significantly more appealing to African-American students than other ethnic groups (p $<$ 0.001). Receptivity to cigarette advertising was to be an important concurrent predictor of past smoking experience and intention to smoke in the future. Adolescents who scored in the fourth quartile of the Index of Receptivity to Cigarette Advertising were 7.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.92-29.56) times as likely to be susceptible to smoking, and were 4.56 (95% CI = 1.55-13.38) times as likely to have tried smoking, as those who scored in the first quartile of the Index. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that cigarette advertising may be a strong current influence in encouraging adolescents to initiate the smoking uptake process than sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. ^

Bacteria causing bacteremia in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia – species distribution and susceptibility patterns

PURPOSE Infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in pediatric cancer patients. The aim of this study was to establish the microbiological spectrum and the susceptibility patterns of bacteremia-causing bacteria in pediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropenia in relation to the use of prophylactic and empirical antibiotics. METHODS We analyzed positive blood cultures of pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia between 2004 and 2011 in Groningen and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and in Bern (Switzerland), using different antibiotic prophylactic and empirical regimens. RESULTS A total of 156 patients with 202 bacteremias, due to 248 bacteria species, were enrolled. The majority (73%) of bacteremias were caused by Gram-positive bacteria. Gram-negative bacteria, especially Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were observed significantly more often in Bern, where no fluoroquinolone prophylaxis was used. Ciprofloxacin-resistant bacteria were cultured more often from patients who did receive ciprofloxacin prophylaxis, compared to the patients who did not (57 versus 11%, p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Gram-positive bacteria predominated in this study. We showed that the use of prophylactic antibiotics in pediatric cancer patients was associated with increased resistance rates, which needs further study. The strategy for empiric antimicrobial therapy for febrile neutropenia should be adapted to local antibiotic resistance patterns.

Finite element analyses of human vertebral bodies embedded in polymethylmethalcrylate or loaded via the hyperelastic intervertebral disc models provide equivalent predictions of experimental strength

Quantitative computer tomography (QCT)-based finite element (FE) models of vertebral body provide better prediction of vertebral strength than dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. However, most models were validated against compression of vertebral bodies with endplates embedded in polymethylmethalcrylate (PMMA). Yet, loading being as important as bone density, the absence of intervertebral disc (IVD) affects the strength. Accordingly, the aim was to assess the strength predictions of the classic FE models (vertebral body embedded) against the in vitro and in silico strengths of vertebral bodies loaded via IVDs. High resolution peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) were performed on 13 segments (T11/T12/L1). T11 and L1 were augmented with PMMA and the samples were tested under a 4° wedge compression until failure of T12. Specimen-specific model was generated for each T12 from the HR-pQCT data. Two FE sets were created: FE-PMMA refers to the classical vertebral body embedded model under axial compression; FE-IVD to their loading via hyperelastic IVD model under the wedge compression as conducted experimentally. Results showed that FE-PMMA models overestimated the experimental strength and their strength prediction was satisfactory considering the different experimental set-up. On the other hand, the FE-IVD models did not prove significantly better (Exp/FE-PMMA: R²=0.68; Exp/FE-IVD: R²=0.71, p=0.84). In conclusion, FE-PMMA correlates well with in vitro strength of human vertebral bodies loaded via real IVDs and FE-IVD with hyperelastic IVDs do not significantly improve this correlation. Therefore, it seems not worth adding the IVDs to vertebral body models until fully validated patient-specific IVD models become available.

Biokinetics of nanoparticles and susceptibility to particulate exposure in a murine model of cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at-risk for health effects from ambient air pollution but little is known about the interaction of nanoparticles (NP) with CF lungs. Here we study the distribution of inhaled NP in a murine CF model and aim to reveal mechanisms contributing to adverse effects of inhaled particles in susceptible populations. METHODS Chloride channel defective CftrTgH (neoim) Hgu mice were used to analyze lung function, lung distribution and whole body biokinetics of inhaled NP, and inflammatory responses after intratracheal administration of NP. Distribution of 20-nm titanium dioxide NP in lungs was assessed on ultrathin sections immediately and 24 h after a one-hour NP inhalation. NP biokinetics was deduced from total and regional lung deposition and from whole body translocation of inhaled 30-nm iridium NP within 24 h after aerosol inhalation. Inflammatory responses were assessed within 7 days after carbon NP instillation. RESULTS Cftr mutant females had moderately reduced lung compliance and slightly increased airway resistance compared to wild type mice. We found no genotype dependent differences in total, regional and head deposition or in secondary-organ translocation of inhaled iridium NP. Titanium dioxide inhalation resulted in higher NP uptake by alveolar epithelial cells in Cftr mutants. Instillation of carbon NP induced a comparable acute and transient inflammatory response in both genotypes. The twofold increase of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) neutrophils in Cftr mutant compared to wild type mice at day 3 but not at days 1 and 7, indicated an impaired capacity in inflammation resolution in Cftr mutants. Concomitant to the delayed decline of neutrophils, BAL granulocyte-colony stimulating factor was augmented in Cftr mutant mice. Anti-inflammatory 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid was generally significantly lower in BAL of Cftr mutant than in wild type mice. CONCLUSIONS Despite lacking alterations in lung deposition and biokinetics of inhaled NP, and absence of significant differences in lung function, higher uptake of NP by alveolar epithelial cells and prolonged, acute inflammatory responses to NP exposure indicate a moderately increased susceptibility of lungs to adverse effects of inhaled NP in Cftr mutant mice and provides potential mechanisms for the increased susceptibility of CF patients to air pollution.

Genetic susceptibility to increased bacterial translocation influences the response to biological therapy in patients with Crohn's disease

OBJECTIVE: The aetiology of Crohn's disease (CD) has been related to nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain containing 2 (NOD2) and ATG16L1 gene variants. The observation of bacterial DNA translocation in patients with CD led us to hypothesise that this process may be facilitated in patients with NOD2/ATG16L1-variant genotypes, affecting the efficacy of anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) therapies. DESIGN: 179 patients with Crohn's disease were included. CD-related NOD2 and ATG16L1 variants were genotyped. Phagocytic and bactericidal activities were evaluated in blood neutrophils. Bacterial DNA, TNFα, IFNγ, IL-12p40, free serum infliximab/adalimumab levels and antidrug antibodies were measured. RESULTS: Bacterial DNA was found in 44% of patients with active disease versus 23% of patients with remitting disease (p=0.01). A NOD2-variant or ATG16L1-variant genotype was associated with bacterial DNA presence (OR 4.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 13.2; p=0.001; and OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.4 to 4.7; p=0.01, respectively). This OR was 12.6 (95% CI 4.2 to 37.8; p=0.001) for patients with a double-variant genotype. Bacterial DNA was associated with disease activity (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.3 to 5.4; p=0.005). Single and double-gene variants were not associated with disease activity (p=0.19). Patients with a NOD2-variant genotype showed decreased phagocytic and bactericidal activities in blood neutrophils, increased TNFα levels in response to bacterial DNA and decreased trough levels of free anti-TNFα. The proportion of patients on an intensified biological therapy was significantly higher in the NOD2-variant groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results characterise a subgroup of patients with CD who may require a more aggressive therapy to reduce the extent of inflammation and the risk of relapse

Preexisting Cerebral Microbleeds on Susceptibility-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Post-Thrombolysis Bleeding Risk in 392 Patients

Background and Purpose—The question whether cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) visible on MRI in acute stroke increase the risk for intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs) or worse outcome after thrombolysis is unresolved. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of CMB detected with pretreatment susceptibility-weighted MRI on ICH occurrence and outcome. Methods—From 2010 to 2013 we treated 724 patients with intravenous thrombolysis, endovascular therapy, or intravenous thrombolysis followed by endovascular therapy. A total of 392 of the 724 patients were examined with susceptibility-weighted MRI before treatment. CMBs were rated retrospectively. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine the impact of CMB on ICH and outcome. Results—Of 392 patients, 174 were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, 150 with endovascular therapy, and 68 with intravenous thrombolysis followed by endovascular therapy. CMBs were detected in 79 (20.2%) patients. Symptomatic ICH occurred in 21 (5.4%) and asymptomatic in 75 (19.1%) patients, thereof 61 (15.6%) bleedings within and 35 (8.9%) outside the infarct. Neither the existence of CMB, their burden, predominant location nor their presumed pathogenesis influenced the risk for symptomatic or asymptomatic ICH. A higher CMB burden marginally increased the risk for ICH outside the infarct (P=0.048; odds ratio, 1.004; 95% confidence interval, 1.000–1.008). Conclusions—CMB detected on pretreatment susceptibility-weighted MRI did not increase the risk for ICH or worsen outcome, even when CMB burden, predominant location, or presumed pathogenesis was considered. There was only a small increased risk for ICH outside the infarct with increasing CMB burden that does not advise against thrombolysis in such patients.