Conditioning and preconditioning of the optimal state estimation problem

Optimal state estimation is a method that requires minimising a weighted, nonlinear, least-squares objective function in order to obtain the best estimate of the current state of a dynamical system. Often the minimisation is non-trivial due to the large scale of the problem, the relative sparsity of the observations and the nonlinearity of the objective function. To simplify the problem the solution is often found via a sequence of linearised objective functions. The condition number of the Hessian of the linearised problem is an important indicator of the convergence rate of the minimisation and the expected accuracy of the solution. In the standard formulation the convergence is slow, indicating an ill-conditioned objective function. A transformation to different variables is often used to ameliorate the conditioning of the Hessian by changing, or preconditioning, the Hessian. There is only sparse information in the literature for describing the causes of ill-conditioning of the optimal state estimation problem and explaining the effect of preconditioning on the condition number. This paper derives descriptive theoretical bounds on the condition number of both the unpreconditioned and preconditioned system in order to better understand the conditioning of the problem. We use these bounds to explain why the standard objective function is often ill-conditioned and why a standard preconditioning reduces the condition number. We also use the bounds on the preconditioned Hessian to understand the main factors that affect the conditioning of the system. We illustrate the results with simple numerical experiments.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Optimal power management strategy for energy storage with stochastic loads

In this paper, a power management strategy (PMS) has been developed for the control of energy storage in a system subjected to loads of random duration. The PMS minimises the costs associated with the energy consumption of specific systems powered by a primary energy source and equipped with energy storage, under the assumption that the statistical distribution of load durations is known. By including the variability of the load in the cost function, it was possible to define the optimality criteria for the power flow of the storage. Numerical calculations have been performed obtaining the control strategies associated with the global minimum in energy costs, for a wide range of initial conditions of the system. The results of the calculations have been tested on a MATLAB/Simulink model of a rubber tyre gantry (RTG) crane equipped with a flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and subjected to a test cycle, which corresponds to the real operation of a crane in the Port of Felixstowe. The results of the model show increased energy savings and reduced peak power demand with respect to existing control strategies, indicating considerable potential savings for port operators in terms of energy and maintenance costs.

Reduced gradient method combined with augmented Lagrangian and barrier for the optimal power flow problem

A new approach for solving the optimal power flow (OPF) problem is established by combining the reduced gradient method and the augmented Lagrangian method with barriers and exploring specific characteristics of the relations between the variables of the OPF problem. Computer simulations on IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 30-bus test systems illustrate the method. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms

J.A. Ferreira Neto, E.C. Santos Junior, U. Fra Paleo, D. Miranda Barros, and M.C.O. Moreira. 2011. Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms. Cien. Inv. Agr. 38(2): 169-178. The objective of this manuscript is to develop a new procedure to achieve optimal land subdivision using genetic algorithms (GA). The genetic algorithm was tested in the rural settlement of Veredas, located in Minas Gerais, Brazil. This implementation was based on the land aptitude and its productivity index. The sequence of tests in the study was carried out in two areas with eight different agricultural aptitude classes, including one area of 391.88 ha subdivided into 12 lots and another of 404.1763 ha subdivided into 14 lots. The effectiveness of the method was measured using the shunting line standard value of a parceled area lot`s productivity index. To evaluate each parameter, a sequence of 15 calculations was performed to record the best individual fitness average (MMI) found for each parameter variation. The best parameter combination found in testing and used to generate the new parceling with the GA was the following: 320 as the generation number, a population of 40 individuals, 0.8 mutation tax, and a 0.3 renewal tax. The solution generated rather homogeneous lots in terms of productive capacity.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Optimal Path Searching through Specified Routes using different Algorithms

To connect different electrical, network and data devices with the minimum cost and shortest path, is a complex job. In huge buildings, where the devices are placed at different locations on different floors and only some specific routes are available to pass the cables and buses, the shortest path search becomes more complex. The aim of this thesis project is, to develop an application which indentifies the best path to connect all objects or devices by following the specific routes.To address the above issue we adopted three algorithms Greedy Algorithm, Simulated Annealing and Exhaustive search and analyzed their results. The given problem is similar to Travelling Salesman Problem. Exhaustive search is a best algorithm to solve this problem as it checks each and every possibility and give the accurate result but it is an impractical solution because of huge time consumption. If no. of objects increased from 12 it takes hours to search the shortest path. Simulated annealing is emerged with some promising results with lower time cost. As of probabilistic nature, Simulated annealing could be non optimal but it gives a near optimal solution in a reasonable duration. Greedy algorithm is not a good choice for this problem. So, simulated annealing is proved best algorithm for this problem. The project has been implemented in C-language which takes input and store output in an Excel Workbook

A stopping rule while searching for optimal solution of facility-location

Solutions to combinatorial optimization, such as p-median problems of locating facilities, frequently rely on heuristics to minimize the objective function. The minimum is sought iteratively and a criterion is needed to decide when the procedure (almost) attains it. However, pre-setting the number of iterations dominates in OR applications, which implies that the quality of the solution cannot be ascertained. A small branch of the literature suggests using statistical principles to estimate the minimum and use the estimate for either stopping or evaluating the quality of the solution. In this paper we use test-problems taken from Baesley's OR-library and apply Simulated Annealing on these p-median problems. We do this for the purpose of comparing suggested methods of minimum estimation and, eventually, provide a recommendation for practioners. An illustration ends the paper being a problem of locating some 70 distribution centers of the Swedish Post in a region.