Mapping spectroscopic uncertainties into prospective methane retrieval errors from Sentinel-5 and its precursor

Sentinel-5 (S5) and its precursor (S5P) are future European satellite missions aiming at global monitoring of methane (CH4) column-average dry air mole fractions (XCH4). The spectrometers to be deployed onboard the satellites record spectra of sunlight backscattered from the Earth's surface and atmosphere. In particular, they exploit CH4 absorption in the shortwave infrared spectral range around 1.65 mu m (S5 only) and 2.35 mu m (both S5 and S5P) wavelength. Given an accuracy goal of better than 2% for XCH4 to be delivered on regional scales, assessment and reduction of potential sources of systematic error such as spectroscopic uncertainties is crucial. Here, we investigate how spectroscopic errors propagate into retrieval errors on the global scale. To this end, absorption spectra of a ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) operating at very high spectral resolution serve as estimate for the quality of the spectroscopic parameters. Feeding the FTS fitting residuals as a perturbation into a global ensemble of simulated S5- and S5P-like spectra at relatively low spectral resolution, XCH4 retrieval errors exceed 0.6% in large parts of the world and show systematic correlations on regional scales, calling for improved spectroscopic parameters.

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Reduction of setup uncertainties and tumor motion in the radiation therapy of lung tumors

Because the goal of radiation therapy is to deliver a lethal dose to the tumor, accurate information on the location of the tumor needs to be known. Margins are placed around the tumor to account for variations in the daily position of the tumor. If tumor motion and patient setup uncertainties can be reduced, margins that account for such uncertainties in tumor location in can be reduced allowing dose escalation, which in turn could potentially improve survival rates. ^ In the first part of this study, we monitor the location of fiducials implanted in the periphery of lung tumors to determine the extent of non-gated and gated fiducial motion, and to quantify patient setup uncertainties. In the second part we determine where the tumor is when different methods of image-guided patient setup and respiratory gating are employed. In the final part we develop, validate, and implement a technique in which patient setup uncertainties are reduced by aligning patients based upon fiducial locations in projection images. ^ Results from the first part indicate that respiratory gating reduces fiducial motion relative to motion during normal respiration and setup uncertainties when the patients were aligned each day using externally placed skin marks are large. The results from the second part indicate that current margins that account for setup uncertainty and tumor motion result in less than 2% of the tumor outside of the planning target volume (PTV) when the patient is aligned using skin marks. In addition, we found that if respiratory gating is going to be used, it is most effective if used in conjunction with image-guided patient setup. From the third part, we successfully developed, validated, and implemented on a patient a technique for aligning a moving target prior to treatment to reduce the uncertainties in tumor location. ^ In conclusion, setup uncertainties and tumor motion are a significant problem when treating tumors located within the thoracic region. Image-guided patient setup in conjunction with treatment delivery using respiratory gating reduces these uncertainties in tumor locations. In doing so, margins around the tumor used to generate the PTV can be reduced, which may allow for dose escalation to the tumor. ^

Improving Cervical Cancer Nodal Boost Radiation Therapy by Quantifying Uncertainties and Exploring Advanced Radiation Therapy Modalities

Radiation therapy for patients with intact cervical cancer is frequently delivered using primary external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) followed by two fractions of intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). Although the tumor is the primary radiation target, controlling microscopic disease in the lymph nodes is just as critical to patient treatment outcome. In patients where gross lymphadenopathy is discovered, an extra EBRT boost course is delivered between the two ICBT fractions. Since the nodal boost is an addendum to primary EBRT and ICBT, the prescription and delivery must be performed considering previously delivered dose. This project aims to address the major issues of this complex process for the purpose of improving treatment accuracy while increasing dose sparing to the surrounding normal tissues. Because external beam boosts to involved lymph nodes are given prior to the completion of ICBT, assumptions must be made about dose to positive lymph nodes from future implants. The first aim of this project was to quantify differences in nodal dose contribution between independent ICBT fractions. We retrospectively evaluated differences in the ICBT dose contribution to positive pelvic nodes for ten patients who had previously received external beam nodal boost. Our results indicate that the mean dose to the pelvic nodes differed by up to 1.9 Gy between independent ICBT fractions. The second aim is to develop and validate a volumetric method for summing dose of the normal tissues during prescription of nodal boost. The traditional method of dose summation uses the maximum point dose from each modality, which often only represents the worst case scenario. However, the worst case is often an exaggeration when highly conformal therapy methods such as intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) are used. We used deformable image registration algorithms to volumetrically sum dose for the bladder and rectum and created a voxel-by-voxel validation method. The mean error in deformable image registration results of all voxels within the bladder and rectum were 5 and 6 mm, respectively. Finally, the third aim explored the potential use of proton therapy to reduce normal tissue dose. A major physical advantage of protons over photons is that protons stop after delivering dose in the tumor. Although theoretically superior to photons, proton beams are more sensitive to uncertainties caused by interfractional anatomical variations, and must be accounted for during treatment planning to ensure complete target coverage. We have demonstrated a systematic approach to determine population-based anatomical margin requirements for proton therapy. The observed optimal treatment angles for common iliac nodes were 90° (left lateral) and 180° (posterior-anterior [PA]) with additional 0.8 cm and 0.9 cm margins, respectively. For external iliac nodes, lateral and PA beams required additional 0.4 cm and 0.9 cm margins, respectively. Through this project, we have provided radiation oncologists with additional information about potential differences in nodal dose between independent ICBT insertions and volumetric total dose distribution in the bladder and rectum. We have also determined the margins needed for safe delivery of proton therapy when delivering nodal boosts to patients with cervical cancer.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Modeled uncertainties in marine N2O emissions with links to source files (52 MB, zipped)

The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (>100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to ~1.6 Tg N/yr, or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N/yr, or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by <15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.

Model parameter

Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

Sediment geochemistry, foraminiferal fauna parameter, census counts and Varimax PC-factor loadings and scores of foraminiferal assemblages of sediment core GeoB12615-4

Analogous to West- and North Africa, East Africa experienced more humid conditions between approximately 12 to 5 kyr BP, relative to today. While timing and extension of wet phases in the North and West are well constrained, this is not the case for the East African Humid Period. Here we present a record of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and sediment elemental compositions of a sediment core from the East African continental slope, in order to provide insight into the regional shallow Indian Ocean paleoceanography and East African climate history of the last 40 kyr. During glacial times, the dominance of a benthic foraminiferal assemblage characterized by Bulimina aculeata, suggests enhanced surface productivity and sustained flux of organic carbon to the sea floor. During Heinrich Stadial 1 (H1), the Nuttallides rugosus Assemblage indicates oligotrophic bottom water conditions and therefore implies a stronger flow of southern-sourced AAIW to the study site. During the East African Humid Period, the Saidovina karreriana Assemblage in combination with sedimentary C/N and Fe/Ca ratios suggest higher river runoff to the Indian Ocean, and hence more humid conditions in East Africa. Between 8.5 and 8.1 kyr, contemporaneous to the globally documented 8.2 kyr Event, a severe reduction in river deposits implies more arid conditions on the continent. Comparison of our marine data with terrestrial studies suggests that additional moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, delivered by an eastward migration of the Congo Air Boundary during that time period, could have contributed to East African rainfall. Since approximately 9 kyr, the gaining influence of the Millettiana millettii Assemblage indicates a redevelopment of the East African fringe reefs.