New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Creating New Design-Build-Test Experiences as Outputs of Undergraduate Design-Build-Test Projects

This paper describes a methodology of using individual engineering undergraduate student projects as a means of effectively and efficiently developing new Design-Build-Test (DBT) learning experiences and challenges.
A key aspect of the rationale for this approach is that it benefits all parties. The student undertaking the individual project gets an authentic experience of producing a functional artefact, which has been the result of a design process that addresses conception, design, implementation and operation. The supervising faculty member benefits from live prototyping of new curriculum content and resources with a student who is at a similar level of knowledge and experience as the intended end users of the DBT outputs. The multiple students who ultimately undertake the DBT experiences / challenges benefit from the enhanced nature of a learning experience which has been “road tested” and optimised.
To demonstrate the methodology the paper will describe a case study example of an individual project completed in 2015. This resulted in a DBT design challenge with a theme of designing a catapult for throwing table tennis balls, the device being made from components laser cut from medium density fibreboard (MDF). Further three different modes of operation will be described which use the same resource materials but operate over different timescales and with different learning outcomes, from an icebreaker exercise focused on developing team dynamics through to full DBT where students get an opportunity to experience the full impact of their design decisions by competing against other students with a catapult they have designed and built themselves.

A Novel Methodology to Characterize the Constitutive Behaviour of Polyethylene terephthalate for the Stretch Blow Moulding process

The stretch blow moulding (SBM) process is the main method for the mass production of PET containers. And understanding the constitutive behaviour of PET during this process is critical for designing the optimum product and process. However due to its nonlinear viscoelastic behaviour, the behaviour of PET is highly sensitive to its thermomechanical history making the task of modelling its constitutive behaviour complex. This means that the constitutive model will be useful only if it is known to be valid under the actual conditions of interest to the SBM process. The aim of this work was to develop a new material characterization method providing new data for the deformation behaviour of PET relevant to the SBM process. In order to achieve this goal, a reliable and robust characterization method was developed based on an instrumented stretch rod and a digital image correlation system to determine the stress-strain relationship of material in deforming preforms during free stretch-blow tests. The effect of preform temperature and air mass flow rate on the deformation behaviour of PET was also investigated.

Iowa Seat Belt Use Survey 2012 Data Collection Methodology Report September 13, 2012

In an effort to achieve greater consistency and comparability in state‐wide seat belt use reporting, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new requirements in 2011 for observing and reporting future seat belt use. The requirements included the involvement of a qualified statistician in the sampling and weighting portions of the process as well as a variety of operational details. The Iowa Governor’s Traffic Safety Bureau contracted with Iowa State University’s Survey & Behavioral Research Services (SBRS) in 2011 to develop the study design and data collection plan for the State of Iowa annual survey that would meet the new requirements of the NHTSA. A seat belt survey plan for Iowa was developed by SBRS with statistical expertise provided by Zhengyuan Zhu, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University. The Iowa plan was submitted to NHTSA in December of 2011 and official approval was received on March 19, 2012.

Having a strategy for new service development : does it really matter?

Purpose – The aim of this study is to investigate the role of key strategic factors in new service development (NSD). In particular, the role of service development strategy, a formalised development process, integrated development teams and customer co-creation were investigated and the results were compared with managers' beliefs. Design/methodology/approach – The study used a sample of more than 500 service development projects to test a NSD conceptual model. Regression analysis was used to test the relative importance of the key strategic factors, and the results were compared with managers' beliefs. Findings – The results show that managers believe that customer co-creation is most important in order to succeed with NSD. However, contrary to management belief, a service development strategy is the “missing link” in improving NSD performance. In addition, the research highlighted an interaction effect between integrated development teams and customer co-creation, which means that project managers should focus on individual competencies on the development team and how they interact with customers throughout the NSD process. Originality/value – For a long time, NSD has failed to receive the attention it deserves, not just in practice but also in service research. This study shows that the number of new services put on the market and then withdrawn because of low sales remains as high as 43 per cent. This paper contributes knowledge on how to reduce the number of failures in NSD by pointing out the key strategic factors that influence NSD performance.

'Stepping out' with Gargantua : learning new research practices in the educational theatre of absurdity

Access to new forms, conduct and practices of educational research remain elusive providing researchers stay within the narrow theoretical constructs-the static, single vista ofconventional research models. This dissertation presents the findings of an experimental study that aims to extend the discourse of educational research through a 'performative ethnographic analysis' by using a single-site case study approach. The case study is an analytical parody based on multiple discourse relevant to a 'new' and different approach to educational research so that a more comprehensive and complex process of reading and writing text becomes possible. Throughout this process, a generative methodology and interpretative base are anticipated to provide a metaphoric focus for a critical dialogue. The discourse informing the theoretical and interpretative base of the study include philosophy, science, visual arts, literary theory, critical postructuralist theory and theatre performance. The data are presented as a series of performance narratives in the form of socio-drama, interspersed with critical reflection that enables the researcher, the research participant and reader to become part ofa triadic construct. The findings from this study have major implications for informing contemporary educational research, as they demonstrate that by approaching research in 'new' and different ways, the researcher and the educational community have access to insights that are unavailable within the constraints of conventional models ofresearch.

Defining the Resolution of a Network for Transportation Analyses: a New Method to Improve Transportation Planning Decisions

Travel demand models are important tools used in the analysis of transportation plans, projects, and policies. The modeling results are useful for transportation planners making transportation decisions and for policy makers developing transportation policies. Defining the level of detail (i.e., the number of roads) of the transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system is crucial to the accuracy of modeling results. However, travel demand modelers have not had tools to determine how much detail is needed in a transport network for a travel demand model. This dissertation seeks to fill this knowledge gap by (1) providing methodology to define an appropriate level of detail for a transport network in a given travel demand model; (2) implementing this methodology in a travel demand model in the Baltimore area; and (3) identifying how this methodology improves the modeling accuracy. All analyses identify the spatial resolution of the transport network has great impacts on the modeling results. For example, when compared to the observed traffic data, a very detailed network underestimates traffic congestion in the Baltimore area, while a network developed by this dissertation provides a more accurate modeling result of the traffic conditions. Through the evaluation of the impacts a new transportation project has on both networks, the differences in their analysis results point out the importance of having an appropriate level of network detail for making improved planning decisions. The results corroborate a suggested guideline concerning the development of a transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system. To conclude this dissertation, limitations are identified in data sources and methodology, based on which a plan of future studies is laid out.

Development of new vocational training modules on sustainable buildings maintenance and refurbishment

This article presents the methodology and main results obtained in Spain within the FORMAR project, a European-funded project under the Leonardo Da Vinci scheme (Lifelong Learning Programme), whose main goal is to jointly develop training resources and modules to improve the skills on sustainability issues of buildings maintenance and refurbishment workers, in three different European countries: Spain, Portugal (Project Coordinator) and France. The Units of Short-term Training (UST) developed within this project are focused on the VET of carpenters, painters, bricklayers, building technicians and installers of solar panels, and a transversal unit containing basic concepts on sustainable construction and nearly Zero Energy Buildings (n-ZEB) is also developed. In parallel, clients’ guides for the aforementioned professionals are also implemented to improve the information provided to clients and owners in order to support the procurement decisions regarding building products and materials. Therefore, the project provides an opportunity to exchange experiences between organizations of these three European countries, as the UST will be developed simultaneously in each of them, exploring opportunities for training, guidance and exchange of experience. Even though the UST will have a common structure and contents, they will be slightly different in each country to adapt them to the different specific training needs and regulations of Spain, Portugal and France. This paper details, as a case study, the development process of the UST for carpenters and building technicians in Spain, including the analysis of needs and existing training materials, the main contents developed and the evaluation and testing process of the UST, which involves the active participation of several stakeholders of this sector as well as a classroom testing to obtain the students’ feedback.

New developments in UAV remote sensing for pest management and the implications for cotton

Efficient crop monitoring and pest damage assessments are key to protecting the Australian agricultural industry and ensuring its leading position internationally. An important element in pest detection is gathering reliable crop data frequently and integrating analysis tools for decision making. Unmanned aerial systems are emerging as a cost-effective solution to a number of precision agriculture challenges. An important advantage of this technology is it provides a non-invasive aerial sensor platform to accurately monitor broad acre crops. In this presentation, we will give an overview on how unmanned aerial systems and machine learning can be combined to address crop protection challenges. A recent 2015 study on insect damage in sorghum will illustrate the effectiveness of this methodology. A UAV platform equipped with a high-resolution camera was deployed to autonomously perform a flight pattern over the target area. We describe the image processing pipeline implemented to create a georeferenced orthoimage and visualize the spatial distribution of the damage. An image analysis tool has been developed to minimize human input requirements. The computer program is based on a machine learning algorithm that automatically creates a meaningful partition of the image into clusters. Results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that accurately classify the field into crop health levels. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop protection assessments in the cotton industry, with applications in detecting, quantifying and monitoring the presence of mealybugs, mites and aphid pests.

Tourist Destination Image in the New Technological Environments: Dialogism under the Public Relations Gaze

The dependence and influence of new media on social and organizational life have led to a new orientation of the communicational practices of organizations and to a research paradigm shift to a cocriational model within public relations theory. This model is based on dialogic rhetoric and dialogue that requires a joint production of content and meanings by organizations and publics, which have a central role in shaping image. The new social and communicational paradigms have also an impact on tourism research, implying the need to understand the role of new technologies, particularly websites, in image formation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of website in the formation of a tourist destination image (Portugal) through the understanding of the degree of adoption of dialogical principles on websites by official and unofficial tourist organizations and the identifying of denotative and connotative elements that are represented on published and shared photographs in these websites. The research corpus consisted of websites of entities and photographs published and shared on these websites. The methodology used is quantitative and qualitative, based on content analysis of data of websites and photographs. Results indicate that official tourist entities adopted the dialogic principles in a higher degree than unofficials. There is also a higher adoption of the principles related to technical dimension than dialogical dimension. Results confirm a relation between the adoption of dialogical link and an increased openness by entities to the possibility of photo sharing. The analysis of denotative and connotative elements of photography reflects a similarity in representations of entities and tourists. This study contributes to both theoretical perspectives, because it provides a conceptual scheme of destination image formation online and to a practical perspective, because it also suggests guidelines of dialogical practices to incorporate in websites of tourism entities.

Governance and community capitals : understanding how governance has worked in three faith-based schools in the Western Highlands of Papua New Guinea

This thesis, titled Governance and Community Capitals, explores the kinds of practical processes that have made governance work in three faith-based schools in the Western Highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). To date, the nation of PNG has been unable to meet its stated educational goals; however, some faith-based primary schools have overcome educational challenges by changing their local governance systems. What constitutes good governance in developing countries and how it can be achieved in a PNG schooling context has received very little scholarly attention. In this study, the subject of governance is approached at the nexus between the administrative sciences and asset-based community development. In this space, the researcher provides an understanding of the contribution that community capitals have made to understandings of local forms of governance in the development context. However, by and large, conceptions of governance have a history of being positioned within a Euro-centric frame and very little, if anything is known about the naming of capitals by indigenous peoples. In this thesis, six indigenous community capitals are made visible, expanding the repertoire of extant capitals published to date. The capitals identified and named in this thesis are: Story, Wisdom, Action, Blessing, Name and Unity. In-depth insights into these capitals are provided and through the theoretical idea of performativity, the researcher advances an understanding of how the habitual enactment of the practical components of the capitals made governance work in this unique setting. The study draws from a grounded and appreciative methodology and is based on a case study design incorporating a three-stage cycle of investigation. The first stage tested the application of an assets-based method to documentary sources of data including most significant change stories, community mapping and visual diaries. In the second stage, a group process method relevant to a PNG context was developed and employed. The third stage involved building theory from case study evidence using content analysis, language and metaphorical speech acts as guides for complex analysis. The thesis demonstrates the contribution that indigenous community capitals can make to understanding local forms of governance and how PNG faith-based schools meet their local governance challenges.

Embedding sustainability into the new computer science curriculum for English schools

The primary goals of this study are to: embed sustainable concepts of energy consumption into certain part of existing Computer Science curriculum for English schools; investigate how to motivate 7-to-11 years old kids to learn these concepts; promote responsive ICT (Information and Communications Technology) use by these kids in their daily life; raise their awareness of today’s ecological challenges. Sustainability-related ICT lessons developed aim to provoke computational thinking and creativity to foster understanding of environmental impact of ICT and positive environmental impact of small changes in user energy consumption behaviour. The importance of including sustainability into the Computer Science curriculum is due to the fact that ICT is both a solution and one of the causes of current world ecological problems. This research follows Agile software development methodology. In order to achieve the aforementioned goals, sustainability requirements, curriculum requirements and technical requirements are firstly analysed. Secondly, the web-based user interface is designed. In parallel, a set of three online lessons (video, slideshow and game) is created for the website GreenICTKids.com taking into account several green design patterns. Finally, the evaluation phase involves the collection of adults’ and kids’ feedback on the following: user interface; contents; user interaction; impacts on the kids’ sustainability awareness and on the kids’ behaviour with technologies. In conclusion, a list of research outcomes is as follows: 92% of the adults learnt more about energy consumption; 80% of the kids are motivated to learn about energy consumption and found the website easy to use; 100% of the kids understood the contents and liked website’s visual aspect; 100% of the kids will try to apply in their daily life what they learnt through the online lessons.

Effect of ray and speed perturbations on ionospheric tomography by over-the-horizon radar: A new method

International audience

Iowa Seat Belt Use Survey 2013 Data Collection Methodology Report, September 26, 2013

In an effort to achieve greater consistency and comparability in state-wide seat belt use reporting, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new requirements in 2011 for observing and reporting future seat belt use. The requirements included the involvement of a qualified statistician in the sampling and weighting portions of the process as well as a variety of operational details. The Iowa Governor’s Traffic Safety Bureau contracted with Iowa State University’s Survey & Behavioral Research Services (SBRS) in 2011 to develop the study design and data collection plan for the State of Iowa annual survey that would meet the new requirements of the NHTSA. A seat belt survey plan for Iowa was developed by SBRS with statistical expertise provided by Zhengyuan Zhu, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University and was approved by NHTSA on March 19, 2012.