The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

The transatlantic dimensions of the time lord: Doctor Who and the relationships between British and North American television

This chapter explores some of the textual specificity of the Steven Moffat/Matt Smith Doctor Who, in relation to its positioning within the current transatlantic television landscape. The chapter develops further the existing scholarship on Doctor Who, by both offering a critical assessment of the transatlantic dimensions of the Moffat/Smith-era Doctor Who, and by challenging some of the existing critical arguments about Doctor Who's transatlantic dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the casting, physicality and costuming of actor Matt Smith as the Doctor in relation to notions of Britishness.

New animals, new landscapes and new worldviews: the Iron Age to Roman transition at Fishbourne

Anthropologists and cultural geographers have long accepted that animals play an important role in the creation of human cultures. However, such beliefs are yet to be embraced by archaeologists, who seldom give zooarchaeological data much consideration beyond the occasional economic or environmental reconstruction. In an attempt to highlight animal remains as a source of cultural information, this paper examines the evidence for the changing relationship between people and wild animals in Iron Age and Roman southern England. Special attention is given to ‘exotic’ species — in particular fallow deer, domestic fowl and the hare — whose management increased around AD 43. In Iron Age Britain the concept of wild game reserves was seemingly absent, but the post-Conquest appearance of new landscape features such as vivaria, leporaria and piscinae indicates a change in worldview from a situation where people seemingly negotiated with the ‘wilderness’ and ‘wild things’ to one where people felt they had the right or the responsibility to bring them to order. Using Fishbourne Roman Palace as a case study, we argue that wild and exotic animals represented far more than gastronomic treats or symbols of Roman identity, instead influencing the way in which people engaged with, traversed and experienced their surroundings.

Globalization, new ecologies, new zoologies and the purported death of the eclectic paradigm

This paper provides a commentary to John Mathews' article in issue 23(1) of the Asia Pacific Journal of Management. I discuss how globalisation is fundamentally altering the milieu within which international business is conducted, and this new ‘ecology’ may indeed require scholars to consider a new ‘zoology’ of firms in the future. However, his specific suggestions are based on sparse evidence, and his alternative to the eclectic paradigm is founded on a misunderstanding of some fundamental concepts.

Decays of new nuclides and isomers beyond the proton drip line — the influence of neutron configurations

The energy of the vh9/2 orbital in nuclei above N = 82 drops rapidly in energy relative to the vf7/2 orbital as the occupancy of the πh11/2 orbital increases. These two neutron orbitals become nearly degenerate as the proton drip line is approached. In this work, we have discovered the new nuclides 161Os and 157W, and studied the decays of the proton emitter 160Re in detail. The 161Os and 160Re nuclei were produced in reactions of 290, 300 and 310 MeV 58Ni ions with an isotopically enriched 106Cd target, separated in‐flight using the RITU separator and implanted into the GREAT spectrometer. The 161Os α a decays populated the new nuclide 157W, which decayed by β‐particle emission. The β decay fed the known α‐decaying 1/2+ and 11/2− states in 157Ta, which is consistent with a vf7/2 ground state in 157W. The measured α‐decay energy and half‐life for 161Os correspond to a reduced α‐decay width that is compatible with s‐wave α‐particle emission, implying that its ground state is also a vf7/2 state. Over 7000 160Re nuclei were produced and the γ decays of a new isomeric state feeding the πd3/2 level in 160Re were discovered, but no evidence for the proton or a decay of the expected πh11/2 state could be found. The isomer decays offer a natural explanation for this non‐observation and provides a striking example of the influence of the near degeneracy of the vh9/2 and vf7/2 orbitals on the properties of nuclei in this region.

Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

Echoes of 1992: the NAFTA negotiations and North America now

Two decades ago, Canada, Mexico, and the United States created a continental economy. The road to integration from the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement has not been a smooth one. Along the way, Mexico lived through a currency crisis, a democratic transition, and the rising challenge of Asian manufacturing. Canada stayed united despite surging Quebecois nationalism during the 1990s; since then, it has seen dramatic economic changes with the explosion of hydrocarbon production and a much stronger currency. The United States saw a stock-market bust, the shock of 9/11, and the near-collapse of its financial system. All of these events have transformed the relationships that emerged after NAFTA entered into force in 1994. Given the tremendous changes, one might be skeptical that the circumstances and details of the negotiation and ratification of NAFTA hold lessons for the future of North America. However, the road to NAFTA had its own difficulties, and many of the issues involved in the negotiations underpin today's challenges. NAFTA was conceived at a time of profound change in the international system. When Mexican leaders surveyed the world two decades ago, they saw emerging regional groupings in Europe, Asia, and South America. Faced with a lack of interest or compatibility, they instead doubled down on North America. How did Mexican leaders reconsider their national interests and redefine Mexico's role in the world in light of those transformations? Unpublished Mexican documents from SECOFI, the secretariate most involved in negotiating NAFTA, help illustrate Mexican thinking about its interests and role at that time. Combining those insights with analysis of newly available evidence from U.S. presidential archives, this paper sheds light on the negotiations that concluded two decades ago.

Self-concept clarity and compulsive Internet use: the role of preference for virtual interactions and employment status in British and North-American samples

Background and Aims Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) describes a maladaptive relationship with the Internet characterised by loss of control and conflict. Although also affecting adults, most studies use teenage samples, and theoretical development on risk factors is scarce. According to Davis (2001), the social connectivity function of the Internet is key in identifying traits associated with CIU. Since Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) is strongly related to social anxiety, and virtual interactions allow “self-edition”, we hypothesized that individuals low in SCC could choose virtual interactions as safer alternative to satisfy their social needs. This could in turn increase the risk of CIU. Building on a previous study, we also expected CIU to be more harmful in the unemployed. Methods We collected samples from the UK (N = 532) and US (N = 502) with equal distribution of employed and unemployed individuals. We ran Measurement Invariance tests to confirm that the constructs were equivalent across countries. Subsequently, we conducted mediation and moderation analysis to test our hypothesis with Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results Measurement Invariance was confirmed. The relationship between SCC and CIU was partially mediated by preference of virtual interactions in both countries. This preference was significantly related to lower social support. Short term unemployment seemed to accentuate the negative impact of CIU on life satisfaction in both countries, although only marginally significantly in the US. The unemployed reported significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. Conclusion We demonstrated that SCC is a key vulnerability factor to CIU in adults, and confirmed the additional risks for the unemployed.

Sexually Dimorphic Effect of the Val66Met Polymorphism of BDNF on Susceptibility to Alzheimer`s Disease: New Data and Meta-Analysis

Conflicting results have been reported as to whether genetic variations (Val66Met and C270T) of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene (RDNF) confer susceptibility to Alzheimer`s disease (AD). We genotyped these polymorphisms in a Japanese sample of 657 patients with AD and 525 controls, and obtained weak evidence of association for Val66Met (P = 0.063), but not for C270T. After stratification by sex, we found a significant allelic association between Val66Met and AD in women (P = 0.017), but not in men. To confirm these observations, we collected genotyping data for each sex from 16 research centers worldwide (4,711 patients and 4,537 controls in total). The meta-analysis revealed that there was a clear sex difference in the allelic association; the Met66 allele confers susceptibility to AD in women (odds ratio = 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.24, P = 0.002), but not in men. Our results provide evidence that the Met66 allele of BDNF has a sexually dimorphic effect on susceptibility to AD. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.