Doubts and Equilibria

In real life strategic interactions, decision-makers are likely to entertain doubts about the degree of optimality of their play. To capture this feature of real choice-making, we present here a model based on the doubts felt by an agent about how well is playing a game. The doubts are coupled with (and mutually reinforced by) imperfect discrimination capacity, which we model here by means of similarity relations. We assume that each agent builds procedural preferences de ned on the space of expected payoffs-strategy frequencies attached to his current strategy. These preferences, together with an adaptive learning process lead to doubt-based selection dynamic systems. We introduce the concepts of Mixed Strategy Doubt Equilibria, Mixed Strategy Doubt-Full Equilibria and Mixed Strategy Doubtless Equilibria and show the theoretical and the empirical relevance of these concepts.

Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

An empirical comparison of the performance of alternative option pricing models

Published as an article in: Investigaciones Economicas, 2005, vol. 29, issue 3, pages 483-523.

Growth in Overlapping Generation Economies with Non-Renewable Resources

Published as an article in: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2005, vol. 50, issue 2, pages 387-407.

A factor model of seasonality in stock returns

Published as an article in: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2004, vol. 44, issue 2, pages 224-236.

Career Planning in Spain: Do temporary contracts delay marriage and motherhood?

The aim of this paper is to find an empirical connection between the impressive increase in the use of temporary contracts in Spain and the observed increase in age at marriage and maternity. Using a pool of the six available waves of individual information from the European Household Panel for Spain, we find that holding temporary contracts rather than permanent ones delays marriage for males, but not for females. Concerning maternity, the labor market situation of both members of the household affects entry into motherhood. In particular, if woman has a temporary contract rather than a permanent one, motherhoods is delayed independently of the husband's contract. As expected, postponement of maternity is not found for non-working women. These results give strong support to the career planning, motive to delay maternity in Spain, given that an unstable labor market situation of female workers is found to be the main deterrent to entry into motherhood.

Estudio empírico del endeudamiento, coste de la deuda y rentabilidades de la industria de calzado de La Rioja. Comparación por tamaño y sector

[ES] El presente trabajo tiene por objeto el estudio del nivel de endeudamiento, el coste de la deuda y las rentabilidades de la industria del calzado de la Comunidad Autónoma de La Rioja por sectores y tamaños. De acuerdo con la Economía Industrial, que considera el sector de actividad como el principal determinante de los resultados de las organizaciones, se analiza si las variables estudiadas son distintas en función de su pertenencia al sector del calzado en comparación con el de la industria agroalimentaria, por ser éste el más importante de la economía de la región. Por otro lado, de acuerdo con la Teoría de los Recursos y Capacidades, que considera que son los factores internos los que explican las diferentes rentabilidades, estudiaremos un recurso interno como es el tamaño, viendo su influencia sobre las variables comentadas. Por último, los resultados del estudio conjunto de la pertenencia a un sector de actividad por tamaños homogéneos nos permiten afirmar que el coste de la deuda de las pequeñas empresas es significativamente distinto en función de dicho sector de pertenencia.

¿Es tan perjudicial la televisión que ven los jóvenes y adolescentes?

[Es] En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de un estudio piloto realizado en la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco con una muestra de sujetos con edades comprendidas entre 12 y 40 años. Dentro de una investigación más amplia donde se pretende relacionar la dieta televisiva y los valores implícitos y explícitos que se perciben en los contenidos televisivos, se exponen algunas diferencias y semejanzas respecto a los hábitos y dieta televisiva de los diferentes grupos de edad. Los datos encontrados nos permiten concluir que los programas más visionados no son los más perniciosos para adolescentes y jóvenes, ni tampoco que el visionado de la televisión impida el desarrollo de otro tipo de actividades.

Determination of drugs used in combined cardiovascular therapy

Cardiovascular diseases are nowadays the first cause of mortality worldwide, causing around the 30% of global deaths each year. The risk of suffering from cardiovascular illnesses is strongly related to some factors such as hypertension, high cholesterol levels, diabetes, obesity The combination of these different risk factors is known as metabolic syndrome and it is considered a pandemic due to the high prevalence worldwide. The pathology of the disorders implies a combined cardiovascular therapy with drugs which have different targets and mechanisms of action, to regulate each factor separately. The simultaneous analysis of these drugs turns interesting but it is a complex task since the determination of multiple substances with different physicochemical properties and physiological behavior is always a challenge for the analytical chemist. The complexity of the biological matrices and the difference in the expected concentrations of some analytes require the development of extremely sensitive and selective determination methods. The aim of this work is to fill the gap existing in this field of the drug analysis, developing analytical methods capable of quantifying the different drugs prescribed in combined cardiovascular therapy simultaneously. Liquid chromatography andem mass spectrometry (LCMS/MS) has been the technique of choice throughout the main part of this work, due to the high sensitivity and selectivity requirements.

A proposal for sea otter protection and research and request for the return of management to the State of California

v.1 - Text and Summaries (272 page document)

Alejandra Pizarnik: "Si no me escribo soy una ausencia"

[ES] Este trabajo propone una lectura de los seis primeros cuadernos del diario que Alejandra Pizarnik escribió a lo largo de toda su vida, desde los 18 años y hasta que murió a la edad de 36. El análisis de estos cuadernos, escritos entre 1954 y 1958, nos permite recorrer el itinerario que Alejandra Pizarnik realiza por la cuestión genérica, la cuestión nacional y la cuestión sexual. Desde su experiencia en cuanto sujeto, la escritura registra esta primera fase en la construcción del yo que Pizarnik desea para su diario. Esta fase, que se puede denominar etapa-derribo, está dominada por el desafío a las ideas del discurso hegemónico. Una vez haya resuelto este escollo en la construcción del yo de su diario, la escritura de Pizarnik no volverá sobre estos temas. Sin embargo, la búsqueda el “verdadero” yo se registra como proceso en el que a un movimiento de construcción del yo, le sigue un movimiento de destrucción de lo que las palabras han conformado, en secuencias en las que la apelación a la mentira de lo escrito o la desconfi anza en la capacidad del lenguaje para expresarlo, son la pauta de dicha escritura.

The Rise and Fall of Water Net (Hydrodictyon reticulatum) in New Zealand

During the late 1980s to early 1990s a range of aquatic habitats in the central North Island of New Zealand were invaded by the filamentous green alga, water net Hydrodictyon reticulatum (Linn. Lagerheim). The alga caused significant economic and recreational impacts at major sites of infestation, but it was also associated with enhanced invertebrate numbers and was the likely cause of an improvement in the trout fishery. The causes of prolific growth of water net and the range of control options pursued are reviewed. The possible causes of its sudden decline in 1995 are considered, including physical factors, increase in grazer pressure, disease, and loss of genetic vigour.