Continuation of limit cycles near saddle homoclinic points using splines in phase space

We present a new algorithm for continuation of limit cycles of autonomous systems as a system parameter is varied. The algorithm works in phase space with an ordered set of points on the limit cycle, along with spline interpolation. Currently popular algorithms in bifurcation analysis packages compute time-domain approximations of limit cycles using either shooting or collocation. The present approach seems useful for continuation near saddle homoclinic points, where it encounters a corner while time-domain methods essentially encounter a discontinuity (a relatively short period of rapid variation). Other phase space-based algorithms use rescaled arclength in place of time, but subsequently resemble the time-domain methods. Compared to these, we introduce additional freedom through a variable stretching of arclength based on local curvature, through the use of an auxiliary index-based variable. Several numerical examples are presented. Comparisons with results from the popular package, MATCONT, are favorable close to saddle homoclinic points.

Design of a Near Optimum Regulator for a Power Plant

For systems which can be decomposed into slow and fast subsystems, a near optimum linear state regulator consisting of two subsystem regulators can be developed. Depending upon the desired criteria, either a short term (fast controller) or a long term controller (slow controller) can be easily designed with minimum computational costs. Using this approach an example of a power system supplying a cyclic load is studied and the performance of the different controllers are compared.

Specific detection of the Old World screwworm fly, Chrysomya bezziana, in bulk fly trap catches using real-time PCR.

The Old World screwworm fly (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is a myiasis-causing blowfly of major concern for both animals and humans. Surveillance traps are used in several countries for early detection of incursions and to monitor control strategies. Examination of surveillance trap catches is time-consuming and is complicated by the presence of morphologically similar flies that are difficult to differentiate from Ch. bezziana, especially when the condition of specimens is poor. A molecular-based method to confirm or refute the presence of Ch. bezziana in trap catches would greatly simplify monitoring programmes. A species-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was designed to target the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer 1 (rDNA ITS1) of Ch. bezziana. The assay uses both species-specific primers and an OWS-specific Taqman MGB probe. Specificity was confirmed against morphologically similar and related Chrysomya and Cochliomyia species. An optimal extraction protocol was developed to process trap catches of up to 1000 flies and the assay is sensitive enough to detect one Ch. bezziana in a sample of 1000 non-target species. Blind testing of 29 trap catches from Australia and Malaysia detected Ch. bezziana with 100% accuracy. The probability of detecting OWS in a trap catch of 50 000 flies when the OWS population prevalence is low (one in 1000 flies) is 63.6% for one extraction. For three extractions (3000 flies), the probability of detection increases to 95.5%. The real-time PCR assay, used in conjunction with morphology, will greatly increase screening capabilities in surveillance areas where OWS prevalence is low.

Resin defect impacts on the value of graded recovery and evaluation of technologies for internal defect detection in slash pine logs.

The key outcome will be to identify a technology that is practical to use to scan logs identified by the modelling as suspect or marginal for sawing and to confirm their unsuitability for value adding sawing by internal scanning.

Side-band intensities in the deuterium magnetic resonance spectra of oriented molecules spinning near the magic angle

The appearance of spinning side bands in the 2H NMR spectra of oriented molecules is investigated. A theoretical interpretation of the side-band intensities is carried out. Information derived on the director orientation and distribution as a function of spinning speedis reported.

Alice Burlin nee Molling, Therese Gottschalk nee Molling, and Line Stern nee Wallerstein at Alice Burlins's home; Linton near Cambridge, England.

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Near infrared spectroscopy as a rapid non-invasive tool for agricultural and industrial process management with special reference to avocado and sandalwood industries

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can play a vital role as a cost effective, rapid, non-invasive, reproducible diagnostic tool for many environmental management, agricultural and industrial waste water monitoring applications. In this paper we highlight the ability of NIRS technology to be used as a diagnostic tool in agricultural and environmental applications through the successful assessment of Fourier Transform NIRS to predict α santalol in sandalwood chip samples, and maturity of ‘Hass’ avocado fruit based on dry matter content. Presented at the Third International Conference on Challenges in Environmental Science & Engineering, CESE-2010. 26 September – 1 October 2010, The Sebel, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.

Screening of new lines of cereal grains for inclusion in Near Infra Red Scan calibrations

The project will provide enough data for a reliable and robust NIRs. It will more fully develop the in vitro method to enable less costly assessment of grains in the future. It will also provide a reliable assessment for DE which is the most expensive component of pig feed.

Functional evaluation of genetic variants associated with endometriosis near GREB1

STUDY QUESTION: Do DNA variants in the growth regulation by estrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1) region regulate endometrial GREB1 expression and increase the risk of developing endometriosis in women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong association with endometriosis at the GREB1 locus although we did not detect altered GREB1 expression in endometriosis patients with defined genotypes. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Genome-wide association studies have identified the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 for increasing endometriosis risk. The differential expression of GREB1 has also been reported by others in association with endometriosis disease phenotype. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Fine mapping studies comprehensively evaluated SNPs within the GREB1 region in a large-scale data set (>2500 cases and >4000 controls). Publicly available bioinformatics tools were employed to functionally annotate SNPs showing the strongest association signal with endometriosis risk. Endometrial GREB1 mRNA and protein expression was studied with respect to phases of the menstrual cycle (n = 2-45 per cycle stage) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis for significant SNPs were undertaken for GREB1 [mRNA (n = 94) and protein (n = 44) in endometrium]. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants in this study are females who provided blood and/or endometrial tissue samples in a hospital setting. The key SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom MassARRAY. The functional roles and regulatory annotations for identified SNPs are predicted by various publicly available bioinformatics tools. Endometrial GREB1 expression work employed qRT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry studies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Fine mapping results identified a number of SNPs showing stronger association (0.004 < P < 0.032) with endometriosis risk than the original GWAS SNP (rs13394619) (P = 0.034). Some of these SNPs were predicted to have functional roles, for example, interaction with transcription factor motifs. The haplotype (a combination of alleles) formed by the risk alleles from two common SNPs showed significant association (P = 0.026) with endometriosis and epistasis analysis showed no evidence for interaction between the two SNPs, suggesting an additive effect of SNPs on endometriosis risk. In normal human endometrium, GREB1 protein expression was altered depending on the cycle stage (significantly different in late proliferative versus late secretory, P < 0.05) and cell type (glandular epithelium, not stromal cells). However, GREB1 expression in endometriosis cases versus controls and eQTL analyses did not reveal any significant changes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In silico prediction tools are generally based on cell lines different to our tissue and disease of interest. Functional annotations drawn from these analyses should be considered with this limitation in mind. We identified cell-specific and hormone-specific changes in GREB1 protein expression. The lack of a significant difference observed following our GREB1 expression studies may be the result of moderate power on mixed cell populations in the endometrial tissue samples. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study further implicates the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 and the GREB1 gene with involvement in endometriosis risk. More detailed functional studies are required to determine the role of the novel GREB1 transcripts in endometriosis pathophysiology. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for this work was provided by NHMRC Project Grants APP1012245, APP1026033, APP1049472 and APP1046880. There are no competing interests.

Establishing forest pest detection systems in South Pacific and Australia

The aim of the project is to reduce the risk of serious damage by exotic pests to the valuable timber resources of Fiji, Vanuatu and Australia by establishing efficient detection systems for target pests in high hazard sites. In particular, the project aims to minimise losses in the valuable plantations of Fiji and the emerging plantation industry of Vanuatu. This is part of a 'neighbourhood watch' approach to incursion management that will benefit all regional countries, including Australia.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

Elly, Dorothea, Leopold, Klaus and Ruth on vacation near the sea; Heringsdorf, Germany.

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Developing molecular diagnostics for the detection of strawberry viruses

Developing molecular diagnostics for the detection of strawberry viruses.