A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Co-occurring anger in young people with Asperger's syndrome

Objectives: The co-occurrence of anger in young people with Asperger's syndrome (AS) has received little attention despite aggression, agitation, and tantrums frequently being identified as issues of concern in this population. The present study investigated the occurrence of anger in young people with AS and explores its relationship with anxiety and depression. Method: Sixty-two young people (12-23 years old) diagnosed with AS were assessed using the Beck Anger Inventory for Youth, Spence Children's Anxiety Scale, and Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale. Results: Among young people with AS who participated in this study, 41% of participants reported clinically significant levels of anger (17%), anxiety (25.8%) and/or depression (11.5%). Anger, anxiety, and depression were positively correlated with each other. Depression, however, was the only significant predictor of anger. Conclusion: Anger is commonly experienced by young people with AS and is correlated with anxiety and depression. These findings suggest that the emotional and behavioral presentation of anger could serve as a cue for further assessment, and facilitate earlier identification and intervention for anger, as well as other mental health problems.

Airborne culturable fungi in naturally ventilated primary school environments in a subtropical climate

There is currently a lack of reference values for indoor air fungal concentrations to allow for the interpretation of measurement results in subtropical school settings. Analysis of the results of this work established that, in the majority of properly maintained subtropical school buildings, without any major affecting events such as floods or visible mould or moisture contamination, indoor culturable fungi levels were driven by outdoor concentration. The results also allowed us to benchmark the “baseline range” concentrations for total culturable fungi, Penicillium spp., Cladosporium spp. and Aspergillus spp. in such school settings. The measured concentration of total culturable fungi and three individual fungal genera were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Pooling of these estimates provided a predictive distribution for concentrations at an unobserved school. The results indicated that “baseline” indoor concentration levels for indoor total fungi, Penicillium spp., Cladosporium spp. and Aspergillus spp. in such school settings were generally ≤ 1450, ≤ 680, ≤ 480 and ≤ 90 cfu/m3, respectively, and elevated levels would indicate mould damage in building structures. The indoor/outdoor ratio for most classrooms had 95% credible intervals containing 1, indicating that fungi concentrations are generally the same indoors and outdoors at each school. Bayesian fixed effects regression modeling showed that increasing both temperature and humidity resulted in higher levels of fungi concentration.

Applying POVM to model non-orthogonality in quantum cognition

Much of the work currently occurring in the field of Quantum Interaction (QI) relies upon Projective Measurement. This is perhaps not optimal, cognitive states are not nearly as well behaved as standard quantum mechanical systems; they exhibit violations of repeatability, and the operators that we use to describe measurements do not appear to be naturally orthogonal in cognitive systems. Here we attempt to map the formalism of Positive Operator Valued Measure (POVM) theory into the domain of semantic memory, showing how it might be used to construct Bell-type inequalities.

Study of the processes occurring when sputtering YBa2Cu3O7-x in pure oxygen

The sputter deposition of YBa2Cu3O7-x in a de-diode was performed in pure oxygen medium and an optical spectroscopic study of the resultant discharge revealed strong emissions from both metal atoms and oxygen ions. Emission intensities were studied in pressure range from 0.5 to 3 mbar, with substrate temperatures from 150 to 850 degrees C. Raising the substrate temperature to 850 degrees C increased the number of positive ions and excited neutral atoms. Raising the pressure decreased the emission intensities of excited neutral and ionic species. The results have been compared with those obtained from Langmuir probe measurements. The rise in emission intensities of excited neutrals and ions with temperature suggested the possibility of chemically enhanced physical sputtering of YBa2Cu3O7-x. The effect of process conditions on film composition and quality is also discussed.

Indoor Air Quality in Naturally Ventilated Italian Classrooms

Characterization of indoor air quality in school classrooms is crucial to children’s health and performance. The present study was undertaken to characterize the indoor air quality in six naturally ventilated classrooms of three schools in Cassino (Italy). Indoor particle number, mass, black carbon, CO2 and radon concentrations, as well as outdoor particle number were measured within school hours during the winter and spring season. The study found the concentrations of indoor particle number were influenced by the concentrations in the outdoors; highest BC values were detected in classrooms during peak traffic time. The effect of different seasons’ airing mode on the indoor air quality was also detected. The ratio between indoor and outdoor particles was of 0.85 ± 0.10 in winter, under airing conditions of short opening window periods, and 1.00 ± 0.15 in spring when the windows were opened for longer periods. This was associated to a higher degree of penetration of outdoor particles due to longer period of window opening. Lower CO2 levels were found in classrooms in spring (908 ppm) than in winter (2206 ppm). Additionally, a greater reduction in radon concentrations was found in spring. In addition, high PM10 levels were found in classrooms during break time due to re-suspension of coarse particles. Keywords: classroom; Ni/Nout ratio; airing by opening windows; particle number

Bivalves for the remediation of prawn farm effluent: identification of some potentially useful species in Southern Queensland

Several species of oysters, clams and mussels are currently being used around the world to create extra profits and help remediate waste-waters from mariculture operations. To identify opportunities and potentially suitable species of bivalves for remediation of prawn farm effluent in Australia, recent literature dealing with bivalve filtration is reviewed, and species occurring naturally in a banana prawn, Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) merguiensis, grow-out pond and effluent streams at the Bribie Island Aquaculture Research Centre (BIARC) were collected, identified and assessed in terms of their tolerance of high silt loadings over 3 months. Three bivalve species predominated in the BIARC case study. These were the mud ark, Anadara trapezia, the rock oyster, Dendostrea folium, and the pearl shell, Pinctada maculata. The mud ark demonstrated the highest tolerance of silt loading (99% survival), followed by pearl shells and rock oysters (88 and 63% survival respectively).

The non-pathogenic Australian rabbit calicivirus RCV-A1 provides temporal and partial cross protection to lethal Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus infection which is not dependent on antibody titres

The endemic non-pathogenic Australian rabbit calicivirus RCV-A1 is known to provide some cross protection to lethal infection with the closely related Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV). Despite its obvious negative impacts on viral biocontrol of introduced European rabbits in Australia, little is known about the extent and mechanisms of this cross protection. In this study 46 rabbits from a colony naturally infected with RCV-A1 were exposed to RHDV. Survival rates and survival times did not correlate with titres of serum antibodies specific to RCV-A1 or cross reacting to RHDV, but were instead influenced by the time between infection with the two viruses, demonstrating for the first time that the cross protection to lethal RHDV infection is transient. These findings are an important step towards a better understanding of the complex interactions of co-occurring pathogenic and non-pathogenic lagoviruses.

Routes of Hendra Virus Excretion in Naturally-Infected Flying-Foxes: Implications for Viral Transmission and Spillover Risk

Pteropid bats or flying-foxes (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) are the natural host of Hendra virus (HeV) which sporadically causes fatal disease in horses and humans in eastern Australia. While there is strong evidence that urine is an important infectious medium that likely drives bat to bat transmission and bat to horse transmission, there is uncertainty about the relative importance of alternative routes of excretion such as nasal and oral secretions, and faeces. Identifying the potential routes of HeV excretion in flying-foxes is important to effectively mitigate equine exposure risk at the bat-horse interface, and in determining transmission rates in host-pathogen models. The aim of this study was to identify the major routes of HeV excretion in naturally infected flying-foxes, and secondarily, to identify between-species variation in excretion prevalence. A total of 2840 flying-foxes from three of the four Australian mainland species (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus and P. scapulatus) were captured and sampled at multiple roost locations in the eastern states of Queensland and New South Wales between 2012 and 2014. A range of biological samples (urine and serum, and urogenital, nasal, oral and rectal swabs) were collected from anaesthetized bats, and tested for HeV RNA using a qRT-PCR assay targeting the M gene. Forty-two P. alecto (n = 1410) had HeV RNA detected in at least one sample, and yielded a total of 78 positive samples, at an overall detection rate of 1.76% across all samples tested in this species (78/4436). The rate of detection, and the amount of viral RNA, was highest in urine samples (>serum, packed haemocytes >faecal >nasal >oral), identifying urine as the most plausible source of infection for flying-foxes and for horses. Detection in a urine sample was more efficient than detection in urogenital swabs, identifying the former as the preferred diagnostic sample. The detection of HeV RNA in serum is consistent with haematogenous spread, and with hypothesised latency and recrudesence in flying-foxes. There were no detections in P. poliocephalus (n = 1168 animals; n = 2958 samples) or P. scapulatus (n = 262 animals; n = 985 samples), suggesting (consistent with other recent studies) that these species are epidemiologically less important than P. alecto in HeV infection dynamics. The study is unprecedented in terms of the individual animal approach, the large sample size, and the use of a molecular assay to directly determine infection status. These features provide a high level of confidence in the veracity of our findings, and a sound basis from which to more precisely target equine risk mitigation strategies.

Measurements of partial discharges-corrections to erroneous counts occurring in a cumulative pulse-counting system

The discharge pulse rates at different magnitude levels are often used as criteria for monitoring the partial-discharge aging of insulation systems. Use of suggested corrections for errors in cumulative probability counting leads to better use of available counters.

Investigation of a suicide ideation risk profile in people with co-occurring depression and substance use disorder

Disengagement from services is common before suicide, hence identifying factors at treatment presentation that predict future suicidality is important. This article explores risk profiles for suicidal ideation among treatment seekers with depression and substance misuse. Participants completed assessments at baseline and 6 months. Baseline demographics, psychiatric history, and current symptoms were entered into a decision tree to predict suicidal ideation at follow-up. Sixty-three percent of participants at baseline and 43.5% at follow-up reported suicidal ideation. Baseline ideation most salient when psychiatric illness began before adulthood, increasing the rate of follow-up ideation by 16%. Among those without baseline ideation, dysfunctional attitudes were the most important risk factor, increasing rates of suicidal ideation by 35%. These findings provide evidence of factors beyond initial diagnoses that increase the likelihood of suicidal ideation and are worthy of clinical attention. In particular, providing suicide prevention resources to those with high dysfunctional attitudes may be beneficial.

Mother-Infant Antibodies to Pneumococcal Polysaccharides and Proteins : Transfer and Persistence of Maternal Antibodies and Development of Vaccine-Induced and Naturally Acquired Antibodies in Infants

Symptomless nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is very common in young children. Occasionally the carriage proceeds into mild mucosal diseases, such as sinusitis or acute otitis media, or into serious life-threatening diseases, such as pneumonia, sepsis or meningitis. Each year, up to one million children less than five years of age worldwide die of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD). Especially in the low-income countries IPD is a leading health problem in infants; 75% of all IPD cases occur before one year of age. This stresses the need of increased protection against pneumococcus in infancy. Anti-pneumococcal antibodies form an important component in the defence against pneumococcal infection. Maternal immunisation and early infant immunisation are two possible ways by which potentially protective antibody concentrations against pneumococci could be achieved in early infancy. The aim of this thesis is to increase the knowledge of antibody mediated protection against pneumococcal disease in infants and young children. We investigated the transfer of maternal anti-pneumococcal antibodies from Filipino mothers to their infants, the persistence of the transferred antibodies in the infants, the immunogenicity of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) in infants and the response of the children to a second dose of PPV at three years of age. We also investigated the development of antibodies to pneumococcal protein antigens in relation to culture-confirmed pneumococcal carriage in infants. Serum samples were collected from the mothers, the umbilical cords and from the infants at young age as well as at three years of age. The samples were used to determine the antibody concentrations to pneumococcal serotypes 1, 5, 6B, 14, 18C and 19F, as well as to the pneumococcal proteins PspA, PsaA, Ply, PspC, PhtD, PhtDC and LytC by the enzyme immunoassay. The findings of the present study confirm previously obtained results and add to the global knowledge of responses to PPV in young children. Immunising pregnant women with PPV provides the infants with increased concentrations of pneumococcal polysaccharide antibodies. Of the six serotypes examined, serotypes 1 and 5 were immunogenic already in infants. At three years of age, the children responded well to the second dose of PPV suggesting that maternal and early infant immunisations might not induce hyporesponsiveness to polysaccharide antigens after subsequent immunisations. The anti-protein antibody findings provide useful information for the development of pneumococcal protein vaccines. All six proteins studied were immunogenic in infancy and the development of anti-protein antibodies started early in life in relation to pneumococcal carriage.

Inhibitory effects of wood extracts on the spoilage flora of marinated poultry meat

Polyphenolic compounds occurring naturally in knotwood of plants are known to have antimicrobial effects. The knots (i.e. the branch bases inside tree stems) and outer branches in pine trees contain a remarkably high concentration of phenolic stilbenes, while lignans are the major phenolic constituents of spruce knots. Large amount of these phenolic compounds can be extracted from wood knots at pulp and paper mills where their presence is undesirable. In Finland, marinating of broiler meat is done not only to increase or add value to the meat, but also to enhance the safety and shelf-life. These products are usually packed under a modified atmosphere for further protection against spoilage microorganisms. However, studies have revealed that addition of marinades to poultry products do not have an inhibitory effect on either some psychrotrophic anaerobic bacteria, such as Brochothrix thermosphacta or lactic acid bacteria associated with spoilage. Also, the activity of pathogenic Campylobacter jejuni is not affected by marinating. The objective of this study was to investigate the inhibitory and lethal activities of extracts from spruce (Picea spp.) and pine (Pinus spp.) knotwood and outer branches that are dissolved in ethanol against the spoilage microorganisms in modified atmosphere packaged marinated broiler products. Modified atmosphere packaged broiler products were separately inoculated with ‘normal’ marinades, marinades with 70% ethanol, marinades with a mixture of spruce and pine extracts dissolved in 70% ethanol or mixture of spruce and pine extracts in powder form. The bacterial colony forming units per gram obtained from each of the samples were analysed on de Man Rogosa and Sharpe agar at days 1, 6, 12 and 15. The results showed that there were significant differences in bacterial colony forming units per gram (P <0.05) between packages with ‘normal’ marinades and packages with extracts added to their marinades on the 12th and 15th day. It can be concluded that the addition of extracts from spruce and pine knotwood to marinades significantly retarded growth of spoilage microorganisms during the 15 day test period. However further research is warranted to characterise and establish the safety and suitability of the compound(s) in spruce and pine knotwood extracts that are responsible for inhibitory or lethal activity against the microbes that may be present in marinated poultry meat.