Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports. CEPS Commentary, 21 December 2012

In an attempt to understand why the Greek economy is collapsing, this Commentary points out two key aspects that are often overlooked – the country’s large multiplier and a bad export performance. When combined with the need for a large fiscal adjustment, these factors help explain how fiscal consolidation in Greece has been associated with such a large drop in GDP.

Birding 2.0: Citizen Science and Effective Monitoring in the Web 2.0 World

The amateur birding community has a long and proud tradition of contributing to bird surveys and bird atlases. Coordinated activities such as Breeding Bird Atlases and the Christmas Bird Count are examples of "citizen science" projects. With the advent of technology, Web 2.0 sites such as eBird have been developed to facilitate online sharing of data and thus increase the potential for real-time monitoring. However, as recently articulated in an editorial in this journal and elsewhere, monitoring is best served when based on a priori hypotheses. Harnessing citizen scientists to collect data following a hypothetico-deductive approach carries challenges. Moreover, the use of citizen science in scientific and monitoring studies has raised issues of data accuracy and quality. These issues are compounded when data collection moves into the Web 2.0 world. An examination of the literature from social geography on the concept of "citizen sensors" and volunteered geographic information (VGI) yields thoughtful reflections on the challenges of data quality/data accuracy when applying information from citizen sensors to research and management questions. VGI has been harnessed in a number of contexts, including for environmental and ecological monitoring activities. Here, I argue that conceptualizing a monitoring project as an experiment following the scientific method can further contribute to the use of VGI. I show how principles of experimental design can be applied to monitoring projects to better control for data quality of VGI. This includes suggestions for how citizen sensors can be harnessed to address issues of experimental controls and how to design monitoring projects to increase randomization and replication of sampled data, hence increasing scientific reliability and statistical power.

Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization. .