Defining and measuring urban regions: A sensitivity analysis

This paper evaluates the impact of alternative city boundary definitions on economic performance. First we discuss the theoretical background and motivate the empirical work. Then we present the methodological concept of the sensitivity analysis, which will be applied to a variety of data of Zurich and Bern (the financial and the administrative centres of Switzerland) in order to see how the values of different indicators vary depending on the definition adopted. Finally we will show whether the empirical patterns found are statistically significant. The analysis shows, that the delimitation of a city or city region indeed matters.

On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14% supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimen - tal set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released fresh water in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman rumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8% of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8% is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic.

Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole

The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east–west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862–1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east–west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.

Resisting infection by Plasmodium berghei increases the sensitivity of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae to DDT

BACKGROUND The evolution of insecticide resistance threatens current malaria control methods, which rely heavily on chemical insecticides. The magnitude of the threat will be determined by the phenotypic expression of resistance in those mosquitoes that can transmit malaria. These differ from the majority of the mosquito population in two main ways; they carry sporozoites (the infectious stage of the Plasmodium parasite) and they are relatively old, as they need to survive the development period of the malaria parasite. This study examines the effects of infection by Plasmodium berghei and of mosquito age on the sensitivity to DDT in a DDT-resistant strain of Anopheles gambiae. METHODS DDT-resistant Anopheles gambiae (ZANU) mosquitoes received a blood meal from either a mouse infected with Plasmodium berghei or an uninfected mouse. 10 and 19 days post blood meal the mosquitoes were exposed to 2%, 1% or 0% DDT using WHO test kits. 24 hrs after exposure, mortality and Plasmodium infection status of the mosquitoes were recorded. RESULTS Sensitivity to DDT increased with the mosquitoes' age and was higher in mosquitoes that had fed on Plasmodium-infected mice than in those that had not been exposed to the parasite. The latter effect was mainly due to the high sensitivity of mosquitoes that had fed on an infected mouse but were not themselves infected, while the sensitivity to DDT was only slightly higher in mosquitoes infected by Plasmodium than in those that had fed on an uninfected mouse. CONCLUSIONS The observed pattern indicates a cost of parasite-resistance. It suggests that, in addition to the detrimental effect of insecticide-resistance on control, the continued use of insecticides in a population of insecticide-resistant mosquitoes could select mosquitoes to be more susceptible to Plasmodium infection, thus further decreasing the efficacy of the control.

The Sensitivity of Physiological Measures to Phobic and Nonphobic Fear Intensity

We investigated whether amygdala activation, autonomic responses, respiratory responses, and facial muscle activity (measured over the brow and cheek [fear grin] regions) are all sensitive to phobic versus nonphobic fear and, more importantly, whether effects in these variables vary as a function of both phobic and nonphobic fear intensity. Spider-phobic and comparably low spider-fearful control participants imagined encountering different animals and rated their subjective fear while their central and peripheral nervous system activity was measured. All measures included in our study were sensitive to variations in subjective fear, but were related to different ranges and positions on the subjective fear level continuum. Left amygdala activation, heart rate, and facial muscle activity over the cheek region captured fear intensity variations even within narrowly described regions on the fear level continuum (here within extremely low levels of fear and within considerable phobic fear). Skin conductance and facial muscle activity over the brow region did not capture fear intensity variations within low levels of fear: skin conductance mirrored only extreme levels of fear, and activity over the brow region distinguished phobic from nonphobic fear but also low-to-moderate and high phobic fear. Finally, respiratory measures distinguished phobic from nonphobic fear with no further differentiation within phobic and nonphobic fear. We conclude that a careful consideration of the measures to be used in an investigation and the population to be examined can be critical in order to obtain significant results.

Searching the hearts of graphene-like molecules for simplicity, sensitivity and logic

If quantum interference patterns in the hearts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could be isolated and manipulated, then a significant step towards realizing the potential of single-molecule electronics would be achieved. Here we demonstrate experimentally and theoretically that a simple, parameter-free, analytic theory of interference patterns evaluated at the mid-point of the HOMO-LUMO gap (referred to as M-functions) correctly predicts conductance ratios of molecules with pyrene, naphthalene, anthracene, anthanthrene or azulene hearts. M-functions provide new design strategies for identifying molecules with phase-coherent logic functions and enhancing the sensitivity of molecular-scale interferometers.

Sensitivity of splice sites to antisense oligonucleotides in vivo.

A series of HeLa cell lines which stably express beta-globin pre-mRNAs carrying point mutations at nt 654, 705, or 745 of intron 2 has been developed. The mutations generate aberrant 5' splice sites and activate a common 3' cryptic splice site upstream leading to aberrantly spliced beta-globin mRNA. Antisense oligonucleotides, which in vivo blocked aberrant splice sites and restored correct splicing of the pre-mRNA, revealed major differences in the sensitivity of these sites to antisense probes. Although the targeted pre-mRNAs differed only by single point mutations, the effective concentrations of the oligonucleotides required for correction of splicing varied up to 750-fold. The differences among the aberrant 5' splice sites affected sensitivity of both the 5' and 3' splice sites; in particular, sensitivity of both splice sites was severely reduced by modification of the aberrant 5' splice sites to the consensus sequence. These results suggest large differences in splicing of very similar pre-mRNAs in vivo. They also indicate that antisense oligonucleotides may provide useful tools for studying the interactions of splicing machinery with pre-mRNA.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Oral Lutein Supplementation Enhances Macular Pigment Density and Contrast Sensitivity but Not in Combination With Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids.

Purpose It has been shown that lutein and zeaxanthin accumulate in the macula where they enhance contrast sensitivity and may reduce the risk of progression to advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Furthermore, omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) might further reduce this risk. However, controversy exists regarding whether PUFA may reduce the bioavailability of lutein. Methods This was a prospective 12-month, randomized, open label study evaluating the effect of supplementation with lutein, other antioxidants, and minerals on contrast sensitivity (CS) and macular pigment optical density (MPOD) in patients with age-related maculopathy. A total of 79 patients were randomized to either lutein (10 mg) and antioxidant supplement or lutein and antioxidant supplement in combination with PUFA. Patients received supplementation for a period of 6 months and were followed for a total of 12 months. Results Serum lutein and zeaxanthin increased significantly by the first follow-up visit at 1 month, and remained elevated throughout the intervention period of 6 months in the lutein-only group but not in the lutein+PUFA group. Macular pigment optical density and CS increased significantly in the lutein-only group (P < 0.005) but not in the lutein+PUFA group (P = 0.059) compared to baseline. Best-corrected visual acuity remained unchanged during the entire study period in both groups. Conclusions Addition of PUFA may reduce the bioavailability of lutein and therefore lessen the beneficial effect on macular pigment and CS. This needs to be considered when prescribing lutein supplements to patients with low lutein levels. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00563979.).

A palaeoecological attempt to classify fire sensitivity of trees in the southern Alps

Using pollen percentages and charcoal influx to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history, we differentiate six possible responses of plants to fire of medium and high frequency: fire-intolerant, fire damaged, fire-sensitive, fire-indifferent, fire-enhanced and fire-adapted. The fire sensitivity of 17 pollen types, representing 20 woody species in the southern Alps, is validated by comparison with today's ecological studies of plant chronosequences. A surprising coincidence of species reaction to fire of medium frequency is character istic for completely different vegetation types, such as woodlands dominated byAbies alba (7000 years ago) andCastanea sativa (today). The temporal persistence of post-fire behaviour of plant taxa up to thousands of years suggests a generally valid species-related fire sensitivity that may be influenced only in part by changing external conditions. A non-analogous behaviour of woody taxa after fire is documented for high fire frequencies. Divergent behaviour patterns of plant taxa in response to medium and high fire frequencies (e.g., increases and decreases ofAlnus glutinosa) also indicate that post-fire plant reactions may change with increasing fire fre quency.

The sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test of sequence-space synesthesia

People with sequence-space synesthesia (SSS) report stable visuo-spatial forms corresponding to numbers, days, and months (amongst others). This type of synesthesia has intrigued scientists for over 130 years but the lack of an agreed upon tool for assessing it has held back research on this phenomenon. The present study builds on previous tests by measuring the consistency of spatial locations that is known to discriminate controls from synesthetes. We document, for the first time, the sensitivity and specificity of such a test and suggest a diagnostic cut-off point for discriminating between the groups based on the area bounded by different placement attempts with the same item.

Diagnosing synaesthesia with online colour pickers: Maximising sensitivity and specificity

The most commonly used method for formally assessing grapheme-colour synaesthesia (i.e., experiencing colours in response to letter and/or number stimuli) involves selecting colours from a large colour palette on several occasions and measuring consistency of the colours selected. However, the ability to diagnose synaesthesia using this method depends on several factors that have not been directly contrasted. These include the type of colour space used (e.g., RGB, HSV, CIELUV, CIELAB) and different measures of consistency (e.g., city block and Euclidean distance in colour space). This study aims to find the most reliable way of diagnosing grapheme-colour synaesthesia based on maximising sensitivity (i.e., ability of a test to identify true synaesthetes) and specificity (i.e., ability of a test to identify true non-synaesthetes). We show, applying ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) to binary classification of a large sample of self-declared synaesthetes and non-synaesthetes, that the consistency criterion (i.e., cut-off value) for diagnosing synaesthesia is considerably higher than the current standard in the field. We also show that methods based on perceptual CIELUV and CIELAB colour models (rather than RGB and HSV colour representations) and Euclidean distances offer an even greater sensitivity and specificity than most currently used measures. Together, these findings offer improved heuristics for the behavioural assessment of grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

Sensitivity and Fragmentation Calibration of the ROSINA Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer

The goal of this work was to increase the performance and to calibrate one of the ROSINA sensors, the Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight mass spectrometer, currently flying aboard the ESA Rosetta spacecraft. Different optimization techniques were applied to both the lab and space models, and a static calibration was performed using different gas species expected to be detected in the vicinity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The database thus created was successfully applied to space data, giving consistent results with the other ROSINA sensors.