Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Statnote 9: The one-way analysis of variance (random effects model)

There is an alternative model of the 1-way ANOVA called the 'random effects' model or ‘nested’ design in which the objective is not to test specific effects but to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation that influence the measurement in space and/or time. The most important statistics from a random effects model are the components of variance which estimate the variance associated with each of the sources of variation influencing a measurement. The nested design is particularly useful in preliminary experiments designed to estimate different sources of variation and in the planning of appropriate sampling strategies.

A multivariate examination of the relationship between strategic planning and organisational performance

Strategic planning and more specifically, the impact of strategic planning on organisational performance has been the subject of significant academic interest since the early 1970's. However, despite the significant amount of previous work examining the relationship between strategic planning and organisational performance, a comprehensive literature review identified a number of areas where contributions to the domain of study could be made. In overview, the main areas for further study identified from the literature review were a) a further examination of both the dimensionality and conceptualisation of strategic planning and organisational performance and b) a further, multivariate, examination of the relationship between strategic planning and performance, to capture the newly identified dimensionality. In addition to the previously identified strategic planning and organisational performance constructs, a comprehensive literature based assessment was undertaken and five main areas were identified for further examination, these were a) organisational b) comprehensive strategic choice, c) the quality of strategic options generated, d) political behavior and e) implementation success. From this, a conceptual model incorporating a set of hypotheses to be tested was formulated. In order to test the conceptual model specified and also the stated hypotheses, data gathering was undertaken. The quantitative phase of the research involved a mail survey of senior managers in medium to large UK based organisations, of which a total of 366 fully useable responses were received. Following rigorous individual construct validity and reliability testing, the complete conceptual model was tested using latent variable path analysis. The results for the individual hypotheses and also the complete conceptual model were most encouraging. The findings, theoretical and managerial implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

Studies of solar radiation and its measurement

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the spectral distribution of solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface. The solar spectrum in the wavelength range 0.29 to 4.0 micrometers has been divided in 144 intervals. Two variables in the model are the atmospheric water vapour content and atmospheric turbidity. After allowing for absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, the spectral intensity of direct and diffuse components of radiation are computed. When the predicted radiation levels are compared with the measured values for the total radiation and the values with glass filters RG715, RG630 and OG530, a close agreement (± 5%) has been achieved under clear sky conditions. A solar radiation measuring facility, close to the centre of Birmingham, has been set up utilising a microcomputer based data logging system. A suite of computer programs in the BASIC programming language has been developed and extensively tested for solar radiation data, logging, analysis and plotting. Two commonly used instruments, the Eppley PSP pyranometer and the Kipp and Zonen CM5 pyranometer, have been compared under different experimental conditions. Three models for computing the inclined plane irradiation, using total and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, have been tested for Birmingham. The anisotropic-alI-sky model, proposed by Klucher, provides a good agreement between the measured and the predicted radiation levels. Measurements of solar spectral distribution, using glass filters, are also reported for a number of inclines facing South.

The development of an in vivo model of drug-induced terminal differentiation of Leukaemic cells

The technique of growing human leukaemic cells in diffusion chambers was developed to enable chemicals to be assessed for their ability to induce terminal differentiation. HL-60 promyelocytic leukaemia cell growth, in a lucite chamber with a Millipore filter, was optimised by use of a lateral incision site. Chambers were constructed using 0.45um filters and contained 150ul of serum-free HL-60 cells at a density of 1x106 cells/ml. The chambers were implanted into CBA/Ca mice and spontaneous terminal differentiation of the cells to granulocytes was prevented by the use of serum-free medium. Under these conditions there was an initial growth lag of 72 hours and a logarithmic phase of growth for 96 hours; the cell number reached a plateau after 168 hours of culture in vivo. The amount of drug in the plasma of the animal and in chambers that had been implanted for 5 days, was determined after a single ip injection of equitoxic doses of N-methylformamide, N-ethylformamide, tetramethylurea, N-dibutylformamide, N-tetramethylbutylformamide and hexamethylenebisacetamide. Concentrations of both TMU and HMBA were obtained in the plasma and in the chamber which were pharmacologically effective for the induction of differentiation of HL-60 cells in vitro, that is 12mM TMU and 5mM HMBA. A 4 day regime of treatment of animals implanted with chambers demonstrated that TMU and HMBA induced terminal differentiation of 50% and 35%, respectively, of the implanted HL-60 cells to granulocyte-like cells, assessed by measurement of functional and biochemical markers of maturity. None of the other agents attained concentrations in the plasma that were pharmacologically effective for the induction of differentiation of the cells in vitro and were unable to induce the terminal differentiation of the cells in vivo.

Productivity analysis and measurement

The state of the art in productivity measurement and analysis shows a gap between simple methods having little relevance in practice and sophisticated mathematical theory which is unwieldy for strategic and tactical planning purposes, -particularly at company level. An extension is made in this thesis to the method of productivity measurement and analysis based on the concept of added value, appropriate to those companies in which the materials, bought-in parts and services change substantially and a number of plants and inter-related units are involved in providing components for final assembly. Reviews and comparisons of productivity measurement dealing with alternative indices and their problems have been made and appropriate solutions put forward to productivity analysis in general and the added value method in particular. Based on this concept and method, three kinds of computerised models two of them deterministic, called sensitivity analysis and deterministic appraisal, and the third one, stochastic, called risk simulation, have been developed to cope with the planning of productivity and productivity growth with reference to the changes in their component variables, ranging from a single value 'to• a class interval of values of a productivity distribution. The models are designed to be flexible and can be adjusted according to the available computer capacity expected accuracy and 'presentation of the output. The stochastic model is based on the assumption of statistical independence between individual variables and the existence of normality in their probability distributions. The component variables have been forecasted using polynomials of degree four. This model is tested by comparisons of its behaviour with that of mathematical model using real historical data from British Leyland, and the results were satisfactory within acceptable levels of accuracy. Modifications to the model and its statistical treatment have been made as required. The results of applying these measurements and planning models to the British motor vehicle manufacturing companies are presented and discussed.

Evaluation and measurement of multiprocessor systems with shared memory

This study is concerned with several proposals concerning multiprocessor systems and with the various possible methods of evaluating such proposals. After a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of several performance evaluation tools, the author decides that simulation is the only tool powerful enough to develop a model which would be of practical use, in the design, comparison and extension of systems. The main aims of the simulation package developed as part of this study are cost effectiveness, ease of use and generality. The methodology on which the simulation package is based is described in detail. The fundamental principles are that model design should reflect actual systems design, that measuring procedures should be carried out alongside design that models should be well documented and easily adaptable and that models should be dynamic. The simulation package itself is modular, and in this way reflects current design trends. This approach also aids documentation and ensures that the model is easily adaptable. It contains a skeleton structure and a library of segments which can be added to or directly swapped with segments of the skeleton structure, to form a model which fits a user's requirements. The study also contains the results of some experimental work carried out using the model, the first part of which tests• the model's capabilities by simulating a large operating system, the ICL George 3 system; the second part deals with general questions and some of the many proposals concerning multiprocessor systems.

The measurement and significance of ATP pools in activated sludge treating coke oven liquors

Coke oven liquor is a toxic wastewater produced in large quantities by the Iron and Steel, and Coking Industries, and gives rise to major effluent treatment problems in those industries. Conscious of the potentially serious environmental impact of the discharge of such wastes, pollution control agencies in many countries have made progressively more stringent quality requirements for the discharge of the treated waste. The most common means of treating the waste is the activated sludge process. Problems with achieving consistently satisfactory treatment by this process have been experienced in the past. The need to improve the quality of the discharge of the treated waste prompted attempts by TOMLINS to model the process using Adenosine Triphosophnte (ATP) as a measure of biomass, but these were unsuccessful. This thesis describes work that was carried out to determine the significance of ATP in the activated sludge treatment of the waste. The use of ATP measurements in wastewater treatment were reviewed. Investigations were conducted into the ATP behaviour of the batch activated sludge treatment of two major components of the waste, phenol, and thiocyanate, and the continuous activated sludge treatment of the liquor itself, using laboratory scale apparatus. On the basis of these results equations were formulated to describe the significance of ATP as a measured activity and biomass in the treatment system. These were used as the basis for proposals to use ATP as a control parameter in the activated sludge treatment of coke oven liquor, and wastewaters in general. These had relevance both to the treatment of the waste in the reactor and to the settlement of the sludge produced in the secondary settlement stage of the treatment process.

A new fuzzy additive model for determining the common set of weights in Data Envelopment Analysis

The main advantage of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that it does not require any priori weights for inputs and outputs and allows individual DMUs to evaluate their efficiencies with the input and output weights that are only most favorable weights for calculating their efficiency. It can be argued that if DMUs are experiencing similar circumstances, then the pricing of inputs and outputs should apply uniformly across all DMUs. That is using of different weights for DMUs makes their efficiencies unable to be compared and not possible to rank them on the same basis. This is a significant drawback of DEA; however literature observed many solutions including the use of common set of weights (CSW). Besides, the conventional DEA methods require accurate measurement of both the inputs and outputs; however, crisp input and output data may not relevant be available in real world applications. This paper develops a new model for the calculation of CSW in fuzzy environments using fuzzy DEA. Further, a numerical example is used to show the validity and efficacy of the proposed model and to compare the results with previous models available in the literature.

Statnote 30 : The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA):fixed effects model

In Statnote 9, we described a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) ‘random effects’ model in which the objective was to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation in space and time. The illustrative scenario involved the role of computer keyboards in a University communal computer laboratory as a possible source of microbial contamination of the hands. The study estimated the aerobic colony count of ten selected keyboards with samples taken from two keys per keyboard determined at 9am and 5pm. This type of design is often referred to as a ‘nested’ or ‘hierarchical’ design and the ANOVA estimated the degree of variation: (1) between keyboards, (2) between keys within a keyboard, and (3) between sample times within a key. An alternative to this design is a 'fixed effects' model in which the objective is not to measure sources of variation per se but to estimate differences between specific groups or treatments, which are regarded as 'fixed' or discrete effects. This statnote describes two scenarios utilizing this type of analysis: (1) measuring the degree of bacterial contamination on 2p coins collected from three types of business property, viz., a butcher’s shop, a sandwich shop, and a newsagent and (2) the effectiveness of drugs in the treatment of a fungal eye infection.

Towards a unified understanding of event-related changes in the EEG:the Firefly model of synchronization through cross-frequency phase modulation

Although event-related potentials (ERPs) are widely used to study sensory, perceptual and cognitive processes, it remains unknown whether they are phase-locked signals superimposed upon the ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) or result from phase-alignment of the EEG. Previous attempts to discriminate between these hypotheses have been unsuccessful but here a new test is presented based on the prediction that ERPs generated by phase-alignment will be associated with event-related changes in frequency whereas evoked-ERPs will not. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which allows measurement of narrow-band changes in the EEG without predefining frequency bands, evidence was found for transient frequency slowing in recognition memory ERPs but not in simulated data derived from the evoked model. Furthermore, the timing of phase-alignment was frequency dependent with the earliest alignment occurring at high frequencies. Based on these findings, the Firefly model was developed, which proposes that both evoked and induced power changes derive from frequency-dependent phase-alignment of the ongoing EEG. Simulated data derived from the Firefly model provided a close match with empirical data and the model was able to account for i) the shape and timing of ERPs at different scalp sites, ii) the event-related desynchronization in alpha and synchronization in theta, and iii) changes in the power density spectrum from the pre-stimulus baseline to the post-stimulus period. The Firefly Model, therefore, provides not only a unifying account of event-related changes in the EEG but also a possible mechanism for cross-frequency information processing.

Measurement of implicit leadership theories and their effect on leadership processes and outcomes

The leadership categorisation theory suggests that followers rely on a hierarchical cognitive structure in perceiving leaders and the leadership process, which consists of three levels; superordinate, basic and subordinate. The predominant view is that followers rely on Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) at the basic level in making judgments about managers. The thesis examines whether this presumption is true by proposing and testing two competing conceptualisations; namely the congruence between the basic level ILTs (general leader) and actual manager perceptions, and subordinate level ILTs (job-specific leader) and actual manager. The conceptualisation at the job-specific level builds on context-related assertions of the ILT explanatory models: leadership categorisation, information processing and connectionist network theories. Further, the thesis addresses the effects of ILT congruence at the group level. The hypothesised model suggests that Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) will act as a mediator between ILT congruence and outcomes. Three studies examined the proposed model. The first was cross-sectional with 175 students reporting on work experience during a 1-year industrial placement. The second was longitudinal and had a sample of 343 students engaging in a business simulation in groups with formal leadership. The final study was a cross-sectional survey in several organisations with a sample of 178. A novel approach was taken to congruence analysis; the hypothesised models were tested using Latent Congruence Modelling (LCM), which accounts for measurement error and overcomes the majority of limitations of traditional approaches. The first two studies confirm the traditional theorised view that employees rely on basic-level ILTs in making judgments about their managers with important implications, and show that LMX mediates the relationship between ILT congruence and work-related outcomes (performance, job satisfaction, well-being, task satisfaction, intragroup conflict, group satisfaction, team realness, team-member exchange, group performance). The third study confirms this with conflict, well-being, self-rated performance and commitment as outcomes.

An investigation of the prevalence and measurement of teams in organisations:the development and validation of the real team scale

This thesis begins with a review of the literature on team-based working in organisations, highlighting the variations in research findings, and the need for greater precision in our measurement of teams. It continues with an illustration of the nature and prevalence of real and pseudo team-based working, by presenting results from a large sample of secondary data from the UK National Health Service. Results demonstrate that ‘real teams’ have an important and significant impact on the reduction of many work-related safety outcomes. Based on both theoretical and methodological limitations of existing approaches, the thesis moves on to provide a clarification and extension of the ‘real team’ construct, demarcating this from other (pseudo-like) team typologies on a sliding scale, rather than a simple dichotomy. A conceptual model for defining real teams is presented, providing a theoretical basis for the development of a scale on which teams can be measured for varying extents of ‘realness’. A new twelve-item scale is developed and tested with three samples of data comprising 53 undergraduate teams, 52 postgraduate teams, and 63 public sector teams from a large UK organisation. Evidence for the content, construct and criterion-related validity of the real team scale is examined over seven separate validation studies. Theoretical, methodological and practical implications of the real team scale are then discussed.

A generative model for online depth fusion

We present a probabilistic, online, depth map fusion framework, whose generative model for the sensor measurement process accurately incorporates both long-range visibility constraints and a spatially varying, probabilistic outlier model. In addition, we propose an inference algorithm that updates the state variables of this model in linear time each frame. Our detailed evaluation compares our approach against several others, demonstrating and explaining the improvements that this model offers, as well as highlighting a problem with all current methods: systemic bias. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Efficiency measurement in fuzzy additive data envelopment analysis

Performance evaluation in conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) requires crisp numerical values. However, the observed values of the input and output data in real-world problems are often imprecise or vague. These imprecise and vague data can be represented by linguistic terms characterised by fuzzy numbers in DEA to reflect the decision-makers' intuition and subjective judgements. This paper extends the conventional DEA models to a fuzzy framework by proposing a new fuzzy additive DEA model for evaluating the efficiency of a set of decision-making units (DMUs) with fuzzy inputs and outputs. The contribution of this paper is threefold: (1) we consider ambiguous, uncertain and imprecise input and output data in DEA, (2) we propose a new fuzzy additive DEA model derived from the a-level approach and (3) we demonstrate the practical aspects of our model with two numerical examples and show its comparability with five different fuzzy DEA methods in the literature. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.