Investigating the efficiency of fitting Coxian phase-type distributions to health care data

Coxian phase-type distributions are becoming a popular means of representing survival times within a health care environment. They are favoured as they show a distribution as a system of phases and can allow for an easy visual representation of the rate of flow of patients through a system. Difficulties arise, however, in determining the parameter estimates of the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines ways of making the fitting of the Coxian phase-type distribution less cumbersome by outlining different software packages and algorithms available to perform the fit and assessing their capabilities through a number of performance measures. The performance measures rate each of the methods and help in identifying the more efficient. Conclusions drawn from these performance measures suggest SAS to be the most robust package. It has a high rate of convergence in each of the four example model fits considered, short computational times, detailed output, convergence criteria options, along with a succinct ability to switch between different algorithms.

The use of material flow analysis and the ecological footprint in regional policy-making: application and insights from Northern Ireland.

This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the use of resource accounting tools in regional policy making. The Northern Limits project applied Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprinting to regional policy making in Northern Ireland over a number of years. The early phase of the research informed the regions first sustainable development strategy which was published in 2006 with key targets relating to the Ecological Footprint and improving the resource efficiency of the economy. Phase II identified the next steps required to address data availability and quality and the use of MFA and EF in providing a measurement and monitoring framework for the strategy and in the development of the strategy implementation plan. The use of MFA and Ecological Footprinting in sustainable regional policy making and the monitoring of its implementation is an ongoing process which has raised a number of research issues which can inform the ongoing application and development of these and other resource accounting tools to within Northern Ireland, provide insights for their use in other regions and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area.

Hydrobiogeochemical Interactions along “Flow Tubes” Controls: Watershed Scale Contaminant Flow and Transformation at the Oak Ridge IFRC

Geochemical,spectrographic, microbiological and hydrogeologic studies at the ORIFRC site indicate that groundwater transport in structured media may behave as a system of parallel flow tubes. These tubes are preferred flowpaths that enable contaminant transport parallel to bedding planes (strike) over distances of 1000s of meters. A significant flux of groundwater is focused within an interval defined by the interface between the competent bedrock and overlying highly-weathered saprolite, commonly referred to as the"transition zone." Characteristics of this transition zone are dense fractures and the relative absence of weathering products (e.g. clays)results in a significantly higher permeability compared to both the overlying clay-saprolite and underlying bedrock. Several stratabound low seismic velocity zones located below the transition zone were identified during geophysics studies and were also determined to be fractured high permeability preferred contaminant transport pathways during subsequent drilling activities. XANES analysis of precipitates collected from these deeper flow zones indicate 95% or more of the U deposited is U(VI). Linear combination fitting of the EXAFS data shows that precipitates are ~51±5% U(VI)-carbonate-like phase (e.g., liebigite) and ~49±5% U(VI) associated with an iron oxide phase; inclusion of a third component in the fit suggests that up to 15% of the U(VI) may be associated with a phosphate phase or OH- phase (e.g.,schoepite). Although precipitates with similar U(VI)-carbonate and/or phosphate associations were identified in the transition zone pathways,there were also U(VI) complexes adsorbed to mineral surfaces that would tend to be more readily mobilized. Groundwater in the different flow tubes has been determined to consist of different water quality types that vary with the solid phase encountered (e.g., clays, carbonates, clastics) as contaminants migrate along the flow paths. This lateral and vertical variability in geochemistry, particularly pH, has a significant impact on microbiological community composition and activity. Ribosomal RNA gene analyses coupled with physiological and genomic analyses suggest that bacteria from the genus Rhodanobacter(a diverse population of denitrifiers that are moderately acid tolerant) have a high relative abundance in the acidic source zone at the ORIFRC site.Watershed-scale analysis across different flow paths/tubes revealed strong negative correlation between pH and the absolute and relative abundance of Rhodanobacter. Recent studies also confirmed that the ORIFRC site hosts a diverse fungal community, with significant differences observed between acidic (pH <5) and circumneutral (>5) wells. The lack of nitrous oxide reduction capability in fungi, and the detection of denitrification potential in slurry microcosms suggest that fungi may have aheretofore under appreciated role in biogeochemical transformations, with implications forsite remediation and greenhouse gas emissions. Further research is needed to determine if these organisms can influence U(VI) mobility either directly through immobilization or indirectly through the depletion of nitrate.In conclusion, additional studies are required to quantify the processes (e.g., solid phase reactions, recharge, diffusion, microbial interactions) that are occurring along the groundwater flow tubes identified at the ORIFRC so predictive models can be parameterized and used to assess long-term contaminant fate and transport and remedial options.

An Investigation Into Features For Multi-View Lipreading

For the first time in this paper we present results showing the effect of speaker head pose angle on automatic lip-reading performance over a wide range of closely spaced angles. We analyse the effect head pose has upon the features themselves and show that by selecting coefficients with minimum variance w.r.t. pose angle, recognition performance can be improved when train-test pose angles differ. Experiments are conducted using the initial phase of a unique multi view Audio-Visual database designed specifically for research and development of pose-invariant lip-reading systems. We firstly show that it is the higher order horizontal spatial frequency components that become most detrimental as the pose deviates. Secondly we assess the performance of different feature selection masks across a range of pose angles including a new mask based on Minimum Cross-Pose Variance coefficients. We report a relative improvement of 50% in Word Error Rate when using our selection mask over a common energy based selection during profile view lip-reading.

Swarm scheduling approaches for work-flow applications with security constraints in distributed data-intensive computing environments

The scheduling problem in distributed data-intensive computing environments has become an active research topic due to the tremendous growth in grid and cloud computing environments. As an innovative distributed intelligent paradigm, swarm intelligence provides a novel approach to solving these potentially intractable problems. In this paper, we formulate the scheduling problem for work-flow applications with security constraints in distributed data-intensive computing environments and present a novel security constraint model. Several meta-heuristic adaptations to the particle swarm optimization algorithm are introduced to deal with the formulation of efficient schedules. A variable neighborhood particle swarm optimization algorithm is compared with a multi-start particle swarm optimization and multi-start genetic algorithm. Experimental results illustrate that population based meta-heuristics approaches usually provide a good balance between global exploration and local exploitation and their feasibility and effectiveness for scheduling work-flow applications. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel Radio Link Buffer Management Schemes for End-User Multi-class Traffic in High Speed Packet Access Networks

The requirement to provide multimedia services with QoS support in mobile networks has led to standardization and deployment of high speed data access technologies such as the High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) system. HSDPA improves downlink packet data and multimedia services support in WCDMA-based cellular networks. As is the trend in emerging wireless access technologies, HSDPA supports end-user multi-class sessions comprising parallel flows with diverse Quality of Service (QoS) requirements, such as real-time (RT) voice or video streaming concurrent with non real-time (NRT) data service being transmitted to the same user, with differentiated queuing at the radio link interface. Hence, in this paper we present and evaluate novel radio link buffer management schemes for QoS control of multimedia traffic comprising concurrent RT and NRT flows in the same HSDPA end-user session. The new buffer management schemes—Enhanced Time Space Priority (E-TSP) and Dynamic Time Space Priority (D-TSP)—are designed to improve radio link and network resource utilization as well as optimize end-to-end QoS performance of both RT and NRT flows in the end-user session. Both schemes are based on a Time-Space Priority (TSP) queuing system, which provides joint delay and loss differentiation between the flows by queuing (partially) loss tolerant RT flow packets for higher transmission priority but with restricted access to the buffer space, whilst allowing unlimited access to the buffer space for delay-tolerant NRT flow but with queuing for lower transmission priority. Experiments by means of extensive system-level HSDPA simulations demonstrates that with the proposed TSP-based radio link buffer management schemes, significant end-to-end QoS performance gains accrue to end-user traffic with simultaneous RT and NRT flows, in addition to improved resource utilization in the radio access network.

Coordinated Design of Phase Measurement Unit and Power System Stabilisers in Large Scale Power System

This paper presents a case-study of a PMU application with PSS support in a real large scale Chinese power system to suppress inter-area oscillations. The paper uses PMU measured feedback signals from a PSS input signal for dynamic torque analysis (DTA). In the paper, a mathematical model of multi-machine power system is described, followed by formation of the residue and DTA indices. Simulations of the model are used with a large-scale power system model to demonstrate the role of PSS and the equivalence of DTA residue indices.

Automated, high performance, flow-through chemiluminescence microarray for the multiplexed detection of phycotoxins

A novel multiplexed immunoassay for the analysis of phycotoxins in shellfish samples has been developed. Therefore, a regenerable chemiluminescence (CL) microarray was established which is able to analyze automatically three different phycotoxins (domoic acid (DA), okadaic acid (OA) and saxitoxin (STX)) in parallel on the analysis platform MCR3. As a test format an indirect competitive immunoassay format was applied. These phycotoxins were directly immobilized on an epoxy-activated PEG chip surface. The parallel analysis was enabled by the simultaneous addition of all analytes and specific antibodies on one microarray chip. After the competitive reaction, the CL signal was recorded by a CCD camera. Due to the ability to regenerate the toxin microarray, internal calibrations of phycotoxins in parallel were performed using the same microarray chip, which was suitable for 25 consecutive measurements. For the three target phycotoxins multi-analyte calibration curves were generated. In extracted shellfish matrix, the determined LODs for DA, OA and STX with values of 0.5±0.3 µg L(-1), 1.0±0.6 µg L(-1), and 0.4±0.2 µg L(-1) were slightly lower than in PBS buffer. For determination of toxin recoveries, the observed signal loss in the regeneration was corrected. After applying mathematical corrections spiked shellfish samples were quantified with recoveries for DA, OA, and STX of 86.2%, 102.5%, and 61.6%, respectively, in 20 min. This is the first demonstration of an antibody based phycotoxin microarray.

A phase II study of vorinostat (MK-0683) in patients with polycythaemia vera and essential thrombocythaemia

Inhibition of histone deacetylases may be an important target in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms. This investigator-initiated, non-randomized, open-label phase II multi-centre study included 63 patients (19 essential thrombocythaemia, 44 polycythaemia vera) from 15 centres. The primary objective was to evaluate if vorinostat was followed by a decline in clonal myeloproliferation as defined by European Leukaemia Net. Thirty patients (48%) completed the intervention period (24 weeks of therapy). An intention-to-treat response rate of 35% was identified. Pruritus was resolved [19% to 0% (P = 0·06)] and the prevalence of splenomegaly was lowered from 50% to 27% (P = 0·03). Sixty-five per cent of the patients experienced a decrease in JAK2 V617F allele burden (P = 0·006). Thirty-three patients (52% of patients) discontinued study drug before end of intervention due to adverse events (28 patients) or lack of response (5 patients). In conclusion, vorinostat showed effectiveness by normalizing elevated leucocyte and platelet counts, resolving pruritus and significantly reducing splenomegaly. However, vorinostat was associated with significant side effects resulting in a high discontinuation rate. A lower dose of vorinostat in combination with conventional and/or novel targeted therapies may be warranted in future studies.

Solvent induced phase inversion-based in situ forming controlled release drug delivery implants

In situ forming (ISF) drug delivery implants have gained tremendous levels of interest over the last few decades. This is due to their wide range of biomedical applications such as in tissue engineering, cell encapsulation, microfluidics, bioengineering and drug delivery. Drug delivery implants forming upon injection has shown a range of advantages which include localized drug delivery, easy and less invasive application, sustained drug action, ability to tailor drug delivery, reduction in side effects associated with systemic delivery and also improved patient compliance and comfort. Different factors such as temperature, pH, ions, and exchange of solvents are involved in in situ implant formation. This review especially focuses on ISF implants that are formed through solvent induced phase inversion (SPI) technique. The article critically reviews and compares a wide range of polymers, solvents, and co-solvents that have been used in SPI implant preparation for control release of a range of drug molecules. Major drawback of SPI systems has been their high burst release. In this regard, the article exhaustively discusses factors that affect the burst release and different modification strategies that has been utilised to reduce the burst effect from these implants. Performance and controversial issues associated with the use of different biocompatible solvents in SPI systems is also discussed. Biodegradation, formulation stability, methods of characterisation and sterilisation techniques of SPI systems is comprehensively reviewed. Furthermore, the review also examines current SPI-based marketed products, their therapeutic application and associated clinical data. It also exemplifies the interest of multi-billion dollar pharma companies worldwide for further developments of SPI systems to a range of therapeutic applications. The authors believe that this will be the first review article that extensively investigate and discusses studies done to date on SPI systems. In so doing, this article will undoubtedly serve as an enlightening tool for the scientists working in the concerned area.

The effect of nozzle geometry on the flow characteristics of small water jets

A wide variety of processes make use of plain orifice nozzles. Fuel injectors for internal combustion engines incorporate these nozzles to generate finely atomized sprays. Processes such as jet cutting, jet cleaning, and hydroentanglement, on the other hand, use similar nozzles, but require coherent jets. The spray or jet characteristics depend on the stability of the flow emerging from the orifice. This problem has been extensively researched for nozzles with diameters above 300 μm. Much less is known about the characteristics of jets produced by nozzles with smaller diameters, where viscous effects and small geometric variations due to manufacturing tolerances are likely to play an increasing role. Results are presented of a wide-ranging investigation of geometry effects on the flow parameters and jet characteristics of nozzles with diameters between 120 and 170 μm. Nozzles with circular cross-section and conical, cone-capillary and capillary axial designs were investigated. For conical and cone-capillary nozzles, the effect of cone angle and effects due to interactions between adjacent nozzles in the multi-hole cone-capillary nozzles were studied. For capillary nozzles, the effects of diameter variations and inlet edge roundness for capillary nozzles were considered. Furthermore, the effect of varying the aspect ratio (ratio of major and minor axes) of elliptical nozzles was studied. Flowrate and jet impact force measurements were carried out to determine the discharge coefficient C, velocity coefficient C, and contraction coefficient C of the nozzles for supply pressures between 3 and 12 MPa. Visualizations of the jet flow were carried out in the vicinity of the nozzle exit in order to identify near-nozzle flow regimes and to study jet coherence. The relationship between nozzle geometry, discharge characteristics, and jet coherence is examined. © IMechE 2006.

A feasibility study testing four hypotheses with phase II outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (MRC FOCUS3): a model for randomised controlled trials in the era of personalised medicine?

Background: Molecular characteristics of cancer vary between individuals. In future, most trials will require assessment of biomarkers to allocate patients into enriched populations in which targeted therapies are more likely to be effective. The MRC FOCUS3 trial is a feasibility study to assess key elements in the planning of such studies.

Patients and methods: Patients with advanced colorectal cancer were registered from 24 centres between February 2010 and April 2011. With their consent, patients' tumour samples were analysed for KRAS/BRAF oncogene mutation status and topoisomerase 1 (topo-1) immunohistochemistry. Patients were then classified into one of four molecular strata; within each strata patients were randomised to one of two hypothesis-driven experimental therapies or a common control arm (FOLFIRI chemotherapy). A 4-stage suite of patient information sheets (PISs) was developed to avoid patient overload.

Results: A total of 332 patients were registered, 244 randomised. Among randomised patients, biomarker results were provided within 10 working days (w.d.) in 71%, 15 w.d. in 91% and 20 w.d. in 99%. DNA mutation analysis was 100% concordant between two laboratories. Over 90% of participants reported excellent understanding of all aspects of the trial. In this randomised phase II setting, omission of irinotecan in the low topo-1 group was associated with increased response rate and addition of cetuximab in the KRAS, BRAF wild-type cohort was associated with longer progression-free survival.

Conclusions: Patient samples can be collected and analysed within workable time frames and with reproducible mutation results. Complex multi-arm designs are acceptable to patients with good PIS. Randomisation within each cohort provides outcome data that can inform clinical practice.

Effect of nozzle geometry on the flow characteristics of hydroentangling jets

Cone-capillary nozzles with varying cone angles from 10° to 120° and a capillary diameter of 120μ are experimentally investigated for their application in the hydroentanglement process. Cone-up and cone-down configurations in a range of water pressures of 30-120 bar are tested. The effects of the cone angle on flow parameters such as discharge and velocity coefficients and intact length are studied. Flow visualization techniques are used to recognize the flow regimes and characteristics and to inspect and compare the intact length and appearance of the jets. Cone-down nozzles with more consistent flow properties, lower discharges, and higher velocity coefficients are more suitable for the hydroentanglement process. Single-cone nozzles without capillaries and with varying cone angles are also tested. The flow properties of the jets from the single-cone nozzles are compared with the cone-capillary nozzles of the same cone angle to study the effect of the capillary section. The effect of the interaction of adjacent nozzles on the flow from multi-hole nozzles is studied, and the characteristics of the jets from the multi-hole nozzles are compared with the single-hole nozzles.

Mantle flow, volatiles, slab-surface temperatures and melting dynamics in the north Tonga arc-Lau back-arc basin

The Fonualei Spreading Center affords an excellent opportunity to evaluate geochemical changes with increasing depth to the slab in the Lau back-arc basin. We present H2O and CO2 concentrations and Sr, Nd, Pb, Hf and U-Th-Ra isotope data for selected glasses as well as new Hf isotope data from boninites and seamounts to the north of the Tonga arc. The Pb and Hf isotope data are used to show that mantle flow is oriented to the southwest and that the tear in the northern end of the slab may not extend east as far as the boninite locality. Along the Fonualei Spreading Center, key geochemical parameters change smoothly with increasing distance from the arc front and increasing slab surface temperatures. The latter may range from 720 to 866 degrees C, based on decreasing H2O/Ce ratios. Consistent with experimental data, the geochemical trends are interpreted to reflect changes in the amount and composition of wet pelite melts or super-critical fluids and aqueous fluids derived from the slab. With one exception, all of the lavas preserve both U-238 excesses and Ra-226 excesses. We suggest that lavas from the Fonualei Spreading Center and Valu Fa Ridge are dominated by fluid-fluxed melting whereas those from the East and Central Lau Spreading Centers, where slab surface temperatures exceed similar to 850-900 degrees C, are largely derived through decompression. A similar observation is found for the Manus and East Scotia back-arc basins and may reflect the expiry of a key phase such as lawsonite in the subducted basaltic crust.

Combining multi-scale geophysical techniques for robust hydro-structural characterisation in catchments underlain by hard rock in post-glacial regions

Accurate conceptual models of groundwater systems are essential for correct interpretation of monitoring data in catchment studies. In surface-water dominated hard rock regions, modern ground and surface water monitoring programmes often have very high resolution chemical, meteorological and hydrological observations but lack an equivalent emphasis on the subsurface environment, the properties of which exert a strong control on flow pathways and interactions with surface waters. The reasons for this disparity are the complexity of the system and the difficulty in accurately characterising the subsurface, except locally at outcrops or in boreholes. This is particularly the case in maritime north-western Europe, where a legacy of glacial activity, combined with large areas underlain by heterogeneous igneous and metamorphic bedrock, make the structure and weathering of bedrock difficult to map or model. Traditional approaches which seek to extrapolate information from borehole to field-scale are of limited application in these environments due to the high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Here we apply an integrative and multi-scale approach, optimising and combining standard geophysical techniques to generate a three-dimensional geological conceptual model of the subsurface in a catchment in NE Ireland. Available airborne LiDAR, electromagnetic and magnetic data sets were analysed for the region. At field-scale surface geophysical methods, including electrical resistivity tomography, seismic refraction, ground penetrating radar and magnetic surveys, were used and combined with field mapping of outcrops and borehole testing. The study demonstrates how combined interpretation of multiple methods at a range of scales produces robust three-dimensional conceptual models and a stronger basis for interpreting groundwater and surface water monitoring data.