Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

Relational architecture and relational capability: organisational levers to support strategic supplier relationships

The resource based view of strategy suggests that competitiveness in part derives from a firms ability to collaborate with a subset of its supply network to co-create highly valued products and services. This relational capability relies on a foundational intra and inter-organisational architecture, the manifestation of strategic, people, and process decisions facilitating the interface between the firm and its strategic suppliers. Using covariance-based structural equation modelling we examine the relationships between internal and external features of relational architecture, and their relationship with relational capability and relational quality. This is undertaken on data collected by mail survey. We find significant relationships between both internal and external relational architecture and relational capability and between relational capability and relational quality. Novel constructs for internal and external elements of relational architecture are specified to demonstrate their positive influence on relational capability and relationship quality.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing machine learning classifiers in potential distribution modelling

Species` potential distribution modelling consists of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements of a species from biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is known to occur. Such models can be valuable tools to understand the biogeography of species and to support the prediction of its presence/absence considering a particular environment scenario. This paper investigates the use of different supervised machine learning techniques to model the potential distribution of 35 plant species from Latin America. Each technique was able to extract a different representation of the relations between the environmental conditions and the distribution profile of the species. The experimental results highlight the good performance of random trees classifiers, indicating this particular technique as a promising candidate for modelling species` potential distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why Implementing History and Philosophy in School Science Education is a Challenge: An Analysis of Obstacles

Teaching and learning with history and philosophy of science (HPS) has been, and continues to be, supported by science educators. While science education standards documents in many countries also stress the importance of teaching and learning with HPS, the approach still suffers from ineffective implementation in school science teaching. In order to better understand this problem, an analysis of the obstacles of implementing HPS into classrooms was undertaken. The obstacles taken into account were structured in four groups: 1. culture of teaching physics, 2. teachers` skills, epistemological and didactical attitudes and beliefs, 3. institutional framework of science teaching, and 4. textbooks as fundamental didactical support. Implications for more effective implementation of HPS are presented, taking the social nature of educational systems into account.

Is the unfolding of the group discussion off-pattern? Improving coordination support in educational forums using mobile devices

A forum is a valuable tool to foster reflection in an in-depth discussion; however, it forces the course mediator to continually pay close attention in order to coordinate learners` activities. Moreover, monitoring a forum is time consuming given that it is impossible to know in advance when new messages are going to be posted. Additionally, a forum may be inactive for a long period and suddenly receive a burst of messages forcing forum mediators to frequently log on in order to know how the discussion is unfolding to intervene whenever it is necessary. Mediators also need to deal with a large amount of messages to identify off-pattern situations. This work presents a piece of action research that investigates how to improve coordination support in a forum using mobile devices for mitigating mediator`s difficulties in following the status of a forum. Based on summarized information extracted from message meta-data, mediators consult visual information summaries on PDAs and receive textual notifications in their mobile phone. This investigation revealed that mediators used the mobile-based coordination support to keep informed on what is taking place within the forum without the need to log on their desktop computer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How initial vocational education and training (IVET) teachers in Sweden perceive their prospects of being able to prepare upper secondary school pupils for a future occupation

Vocational teachers in Swedish upper secondary schools are a heterogeneous category of teachers, connected to different types of trade. These teachers represent a broad set of trade skills varying in content and character. In their teacher role, they continue to wear the clothes, speak the language, share the culture and remain mentally in their former professions. Still, it is central that they keep up this contact to be able to school the pupils into the environment of the trade in question, but also to help them to understand what skills a profession demands. However, the individual teacher also has to distance himself from the negative elements in the culture of the profession: patterns and habits that, for various reasons, have to be broken or changed. This paper draws attention to the ways in which a group of vocational teachers, who were participants in a project that aimed to train unauthorized vocational teachers, expressed their ambitions to prepare the pupils for a future professional career. When collecting information, we used the degree dissertations they produced and discussed in seminars, and informal dialogues. The result shows that it is important that the instruction location resembles a real working site as far as possible. These places are more or less realistic copies of a garage, a restaurant kitchen, a hairdressing salon, and so on, in order to give the pupils a realistic setting for instruction. However, the fact that these simulated workplaces lack the necessary support functions that exist in a company creates problems, problems which make a lot of extra work for the teachers. Vocational teachers also have to instruct the pupil in the experienced practitioner’s professional skills and working situation, but the pupil herself/himself must learn the job by doing it in practice. Some vocational upper secondary programs lack relevant course literature and the businesses give little support. This also makes extra work for the teachers. Moreover, the distance between the vocational programs and the trainee jobs was experienced as being difficult to overcome. One reason seems to be differences between businesses and differing preconditions between small and big companies’ abilities to take care of these pupils. The upper secondary school vocational programs also play a role in cementing existing gender roles, as well as perpetuating class-related patterns on the labour market.

How initial vocational education and training (IVET) teachers in Sweden perceive their prospects of being able to prepare upper secondary school pupils for a future occupation

Vocational teachers in Swedish upper secondary schools are a heterogeneous category of teachers, connected to different types of trade. These teachers represent a broad set of trade skills varying in content and character. In their teacher role, they continue to wear the clothes, speak the language, share the culture and remain mentally in their former professions. Still, it is central that they keep up this contact to be able to school the pupils into the environment of the trade in question, but also to help them to understand what skills a profession demands. However, the individual teacher also has to distance himself from the negative elements in the culture of the profession: patterns and habits that, for various reasons, have to be broken or changed. This paper draws attention to the ways in which a group of vocational teachers, who were participants in a project that aimed to train unauthorized vocational teachers, expressed their ambitions to prepare the pupils for a future professional career. When collecting information, we used the degree dissertations they produced and discussed in seminars, and informal dialogues. The result shows that it is important that the instruction location resembles a real working site as far as possible. These places are more or less realistic copies of a garage, a restaurant kitchen, a hairdressing salon, and so on, in order to give the pupils a realistic setting for instruction. However, the fact that these simulated workplaces lack the necessary support functions that exist in a company creates problems, problems which make a lot of extra work for the teachers. Vocational teachers also have to instruct the pupil in the experienced practitioner’s professional skills and working situation, but the pupil herself/himself must learn the job by doing it in practice. Some vocational upper secondary programs lack relevant course literature and the businesses give little support. This also makes extra work for the teachers. Moreover, the distance between the vocational programs and the trainee jobs was experienced as being difficult to overcome. One reason seems to be differences between businesses and differing preconditions between small and big companies’ abilities to take care of these pupils. The upper secondary school vocational programs also play a role in cementing existing gender roles, as well as perpetuating class-related patterns on the labour market.

Manager's task to support integrated autonomy at the workplace : Results from an intervention

A new managerial task arises in today’s working life: to provide conditions for and influence interaction between actors and thus to enable the emergence of organizing structure in tune with a changing environment. We call this the enabling managerial task. The goal of this paper is to study whether training first line managers in the enabling managerial task could lead to changes in the work for the subordinates. This paper presents results from questionnaires answered by the subordinates of the managers before and after the training. The training was organized as a learning network and consisted of eight workshops carried out over a period of one year (September 2009–June 2010), where the managers met with each other and the researchers once a month. Each workshop consisted of three parts, during three and a half hours. The first hour was devoted to joint reflection on a task that had been undertaken since the last workshop; some results were presented from the employee pre-assessments, followed by relevant theory and illuminating practices, finally the managers created new tasks for themselves to undertake during the following month. The subordinates’ answers show positive change in all of the seventeen scales used to assess it. The improvements are significant in scales measuring the relationship between the manager and the employees, as well as in those measuring interaction between employees. It is concluded that the result was a success for all managers that had the possibility of using the training in their management work.

A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Consideration of a wide range of plausible crime scenarios during any crime investigation is important to seek convincing evidence and hence to minimize the likelihood of miscarriages of justice. It is equally important for crime investigators to be able to employ effective and efficient evidence-collection strategies that are likely to produce the most conclusive information under limited available resources. An intelligent decision support system that can assist human investigators by automatically constructing plausible scenarios, and reasoning with the likely best investigating actions will clearly be very helpful in addressing these challenging problems. This paper presents a system for creating scenario spaces from given evidence, based on an integrated application of techniques for compositional modelling and Bayesian network-based evidence evaluation. Methods of analysis are also provided by the use of entropy to exploit the synthesized scenario spaces in order to prioritize investigating actions and hypotheses. These theoretical developments are illustrated by realistic examples of serious crime investigation.

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.