Ground beetle (Carabidae) abundance data from north-eastern Australian rainforest, between June 2008 - January 2010, using pitfall traps

Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly positively associated with the historical climatic conditions and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls) and current climatic conditions. Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and current and historical climatic conditions. Our results suggest that distributional patterns of flightless ground beetles are not only likely to be associated with factors that change with elevation (current climatic conditions), but also factors that are independent of elevation (recent disturbance and historical climatic conditions). Variation in historical vegetation stability explained both species richness and assemblage composition patterns, probably reflecting the significance of upland refugia at a geographic time scale. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats are under threat from climate change.

A unified framework of trade in value added : physical, monetary, exchange rates, and GHG emissions

Koopman et al. (2014) developed a method to consistently decompose gross exports in value-added terms that accommodate infinite repercussions of international and inter-sector transactions. This provides a better understanding of trade in value added in global value chains than does the conventional gross exports method, which is affected by double-counting problems. However, the new framework is based on monetary input--output (IO) tables and cannot distinguish prices from quantities; thus, it is unable to consider financial adjustments through the exchange market. In this paper, we propose a framework based on a physical IO system, characterized by its linear programming equivalent that can clarify the various complexities relevant to the existing indicators and is proved to be consistent with Koopman's results when the physical decompositions are evaluated in monetary terms. While international monetary tables are typically described in current U.S. dollars, the physical framework can elucidate the impact of price adjustments through the exchange market. An iterative procedure to calculate the exchange rates is proposed, and we also show that the physical framework is also convenient for considering indicators associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

El problema del rozamiento en el análisis de estructuras de fábrica mediante modelos de sólidos rígidos

La evaluación de la seguridad de estructuras antiguas de fábrica es un problema abierto.El material es heterogéneo y anisótropo, el estado previo de tensiones difícil de conocer y las condiciones de contorno inciertas. A comienzos de los años 50 se demostró que el análisis límite era aplicable a este tipo de estructuras, considerándose desde entonces como una herramienta adecuada. En los casos en los que no se produce deslizamiento la aplicación de los teoremas del análisis límite estándar constituye una herramienta formidable por su simplicidad y robustez. No es necesario conocer el estado real de tensiones. Basta con encontrar cualquier solución de equilibrio, y que satisfaga las condiciones de límite del material, en la seguridad de que su carga será igual o inferior a la carga real de inicio de colapso. Además esta carga de inicio de colapso es única (teorema de la unicidad) y se puede obtener como el óptimo de uno cualquiera entre un par de programas matemáticos convexos duales. Sin embargo, cuando puedan existir mecanismos de inicio de colapso que impliquen deslizamientos, cualquier solución debe satisfacer tanto las restricciones estáticas como las cinemáticas, así como un tipo especial de restricciones disyuntivas que ligan las anteriores y que pueden plantearse como de complementariedad. En este último caso no está asegurada la existencia de una solución única, por lo que es necesaria la búsqueda de otros métodos para tratar la incertidumbre asociada a su multiplicidad. En los últimos años, la investigación se ha centrado en la búsqueda de un mínimo absoluto por debajo del cual el colapso sea imposible. Este método es fácil de plantear desde el punto de vista matemático, pero intratable computacionalmente, debido a las restricciones de complementariedad 0 y z 0 que no son ni convexas ni suaves. El problema de decisión resultante es de complejidad computacional No determinista Polinomial (NP)- completo y el problema de optimización global NP-difícil. A pesar de ello, obtener una solución (sin garantía de exito) es un problema asequible. La presente tesis propone resolver el problema mediante Programación Lineal Secuencial, aprovechando las especiales características de las restricciones de complementariedad, que escritas en forma bilineal son del tipo y z = 0; y 0; z 0 , y aprovechando que el error de complementariedad (en forma bilineal) es una función de penalización exacta. Pero cuando se trata de encontrar la peor solución, el problema de optimización global equivalente es intratable (NP-difícil). Además, en tanto no se demuestre la existencia de un principio de máximo o mínimo, existe la duda de que el esfuerzo empleado en aproximar este mínimo esté justificado. En el capítulo 5, se propone hallar la distribución de frecuencias del factor de carga, para todas las soluciones de inicio de colapso posibles, sobre un sencillo ejemplo. Para ello, se realiza un muestreo de soluciones mediante el método de Monte Carlo, utilizando como contraste un método exacto de computación de politopos. El objetivo final es plantear hasta que punto está justificada la busqueda del mínimo absoluto y proponer un método alternativo de evaluación de la seguridad basado en probabilidades. Las distribuciones de frecuencias, de los factores de carga correspondientes a las soluciones de inicio de colapso obtenidas para el caso estudiado, muestran que tanto el valor máximo como el mínimo de los factores de carga son muy infrecuentes, y tanto más, cuanto más perfecto y contínuo es el contacto. Los resultados obtenidos confirman el interés de desarrollar nuevos métodos probabilistas. En el capítulo 6, se propone un método de este tipo basado en la obtención de múltiples soluciones, desde puntos de partida aleatorios y calificando los resultados mediante la Estadística de Orden. El propósito es determinar la probabilidad de inicio de colapso para cada solución.El método se aplica (de acuerdo a la reducción de expectativas propuesta por la Optimización Ordinal) para obtener una solución que se encuentre en un porcentaje determinado de las peores. Finalmente, en el capítulo 7, se proponen métodos híbridos, incorporando metaheurísticas, para los casos en que la búsqueda del mínimo global esté justificada. Abstract Safety assessment of the historic masonry structures is an open problem. The material is heterogeneous and anisotropic, the previous state of stress is hard to know and the boundary conditions are uncertain. In the early 50's it was proven that limit analysis was applicable to this kind of structures, being considered a suitable tool since then. In cases where no slip occurs, the application of the standard limit analysis theorems constitutes an excellent tool due to its simplicity and robustness. It is enough find any equilibrium solution which satisfy the limit constraints of the material. As we are certain that this load will be equal to or less than the actual load of the onset of collapse, it is not necessary to know the actual stresses state. Furthermore this load for the onset of collapse is unique (uniqueness theorem), and it can be obtained as the optimal from any of two mathematical convex duals programs However, if the mechanisms of the onset of collapse involve sliding, any solution must satisfy both static and kinematic constraints, and also a special kind of disjunctive constraints linking the previous ones, which can be formulated as complementarity constraints. In the latter case, it is not guaranted the existence of a single solution, so it is necessary to look for other ways to treat the uncertainty associated with its multiplicity. In recent years, research has been focused on finding an absolute minimum below which collapse is impossible. This method is easy to set from a mathematical point of view, but computationally intractable. This is due to the complementarity constraints 0 y z 0 , which are neither convex nor smooth. The computational complexity of the resulting decision problem is "Not-deterministic Polynomialcomplete" (NP-complete), and the corresponding global optimization problem is NP-hard. However, obtaining a solution (success is not guaranteed) is an affordable problem. This thesis proposes solve that problem through Successive Linear Programming: taking advantage of the special characteristics of complementarity constraints, which written in bilinear form are y z = 0; y 0; z 0 ; and taking advantage of the fact that the complementarity error (bilinear form) is an exact penalty function. But when it comes to finding the worst solution, the (equivalent) global optimization problem is intractable (NP-hard). Furthermore, until a minimum or maximum principle is not demonstrated, it is questionable that the effort expended in approximating this minimum is justified. XIV In chapter 5, it is proposed find the frequency distribution of the load factor, for all possible solutions of the onset of collapse, on a simple example. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo sampling of solutions is performed using a contrast method "exact computation of polytopes". The ultimate goal is to determine to which extent the search of the global minimum is justified, and to propose an alternative approach to safety assessment based on probabilities. The frequency distributions for the case study show that both the maximum and the minimum load factors are very infrequent, especially when the contact gets more perfect and more continuous. The results indicates the interest of developing new probabilistic methods. In Chapter 6, is proposed a method based on multiple solutions obtained from random starting points, and qualifying the results through Order Statistics. The purpose is to determine the probability for each solution of the onset of collapse. The method is applied (according to expectations reduction given by the Ordinal Optimization) to obtain a solution that is in a certain percentage of the worst. Finally, in Chapter 7, hybrid methods incorporating metaheuristics are proposed for cases in which the search for the global minimum is justified.

Continuous multi-criteria methods for crop and soil conservation planning on La Colacha (Río Cuarto, Province of Cordoba, Argentina)

Agro-areas of Arroyos Menores (La Colacha) west and south of Rand south of R?o Cuarto (Prov. of Cordoba, Argentina) basins are very fertile but have high soil loses. Extreme rain events, inundations and other severe erosions forming gullies demand urgently actions in this area to avoid soil degradation and erosion supporting good levels of agro production. The authors first improved hydrologic data on La Colacha, evaluated the systems of soil uses and actions that could be recommended considering the relevant aspects of the study area and applied decision support systems (DSS) with mathematic tools for planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas. These were conducted here using multi-criteria models, in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); first of discrete MCDM to chose among global types of use of soils, and then of continuous MCDM to evaluate and optimize combined actions, including repartition of soil use and the necessary levels of works for soil conservation and for hydraulic management to conserve against erosion these basins. Relatively global solutions for La Colacha area have been defined and were optimised by Linear Programming in Goal Programming forms that are presented as Weighted or Lexicographic Goal Programming and as Compromise Programming. The decision methods used are described, indicating algorithms used, and examples for some representative scenarios on La Colacha area are given.

Flutter margin with non-linearities: real-time prediction of flutter onset speed

The present article shows a procedure to predict the flutter speed based on real-time tuning of a quasi non-linear aeroelastic model. A two-dimensional non-linear (freeplay) aeroeslastic model is implemented inMatLab/Simulink with incompressible aerodynamic conditions. A comparison with real compressible conditions is provided. Once the numerical validation is accomplished, a parametric aeroelastic model is built in order to describe the proposed procedure and contribute to reduce the number of flight hours needed to expand the flutter envelope.

Moment transfer and influence of transverse beams in interior waffle flat plate-column connections under lateral loading

This paper addresses two aspects of the behavior of interior reinforced concrete waffle flat plate?column connections under lateral loads: the share of the unbalanced moment between flexure and excentric shear, and the effect of the transverse beams. A non-linear finite element model (benchmark model) was developed and calibrated with the results of quasi-static cyclic tests conducted on a 3/5 scale specimen. First, from this numerical model, the portion cv of the unbalanced moment transferred by the excentricity of shear about the centroid of the critical sections defined by Eurocode 2 (EC-2) and by ACI 318-11 was calculated and compared with the share-out prescribed by these codes. It is found that while the critical section of EC-2 is consistent with the cv provided by this code, in the case of ACI 318-11, the value assigned to cv is far below (about 50% smaller) the actual one obtained with the numerical simulations. Second, from the benchmark model, seven additional models were developed by varying the depth D of the transverse beam over the thickness h of the plate. It was found that the ductility of the connection and the effective width of the plate can respectively be increased up to 50% and 10% by raising D/h to 2 and 1.5.

Numerical and experimental study of the parametric rolling of a fisihing vessel in regular head waves

The dynamic behaviour of a fishing vessel in waves is studied in order to reveal its parametric rolling characteristics. This paper presents experimental and numerical results in longitudinal regular waves. The experimental results are compared against the results of a time-domain non-linear strip theory model of ship motions in six degrees-of-freedom. These results contribute to the validation of the parametric rolling prediction method, so that it can be used as an assessment tool to evaluate both the susceptibility and severity of occurrence of parametric rolling at the early design stage of these types of vessels.

Optimization of prestressed concrete bridge decks

In this paper a summary of the methods presently used for optimization of prestressed concrete bridge decks is given. By means of linear optimization the sizes of the prestressing cables with a given fixed geometry are obtained. This simple procedure of linear optimization is also used to obtain the ‘best’ cable profile, by combining a series of feasible cable profiles. The results are compared with the ones obtained by other researchers. A step ahead in the field of optimization of prestressed bridge decks is the simultaneous search of the geometry and size of the prestressing cables. A non-linear programming for optimization is used, namely, ‘the steepest gradient method’. The results obtained are compared with the ones computed previously by means of linear programming techniques. Finally, the general problem of structural optimization is considered. This problem consists in finding the sizes and geometries of the prestressing cables as well as the longitudinal variation of the concrete section.

The influence of axial microgravity on the breakage of axisymmetric slender liquid bridges

The dynamics of inviscid, axisymmetric liquid bridges permits a simplified treatment if the bridge is long enough. Under such condition the evolution of the liquid zone is satisfactorily explained through a non-linear one-dimensional model. In the case of breaking, the one-dimensional model fails when the neck radius of the liquid column is close to zero; however, the model allows the calculation of the time variation of the liquid-bridge interface as well as of the fluid velocity field and, because the last part of the evolution is not needed, the overall results such as the breaking time and the volume of each of the two drops resulting after breakage can be calculated. In this paper numerical results concerning the behavior of clinical liquid bridges subjected to a small axial gravitational field are presented.

Optimized design of the prestress in continuous bridge decks

In this paper a method for automatic design of the prestress in continuous bridge decks is presented. In a first step of the procedure the optimal prestressed force for a completely geometrically defined and feasible prestress layout is obtained by means of linear programming techniques. Further on, in a second step the prestress geometry and minimum force are automatically found by steepest descent optimization techniques. Finally this methodology is applied to two-span continuous bridge decks and from the obtained results some preliminary design rules can be drawn.

Enhancing regression models for complex systems using evolutionary techniques for feature engineering

This work proposes an automatic methodology for modeling complex systems. Our methodology is based on the combination of Grammatical Evolution and classical regression to obtain an optimal set of features that take part of a linear and convex model. This technique provides both Feature Engineering and Symbolic Regression in order to infer accurate models with no effort or designer's expertise requirements. As advanced Cloud services are becoming mainstream, the contribution of data centers in the overall power consumption of modern cities is growing dramatically. These facilities consume from 10 to 100 times more power per square foot than typical office buildings. Modeling the power consumption for these infrastructures is crucial to anticipate the effects of aggressive optimization policies, but accurate and fast power modeling is a complex challenge for high-end servers not yet satisfied by analytical approaches. For this case study, our methodology minimizes error in power prediction. This work has been tested using real Cloud applications resulting on an average error in power estimation of 3.98%. Our work improves the possibilities of deriving Cloud energy efficient policies in Cloud data centers being applicable to other computing environments with similar characteristics.

Validation of the Item-Attribute Matrix in TIMSS-Mathematics Using Multiple Regression and the LSDM

The purposes of this study were (1) to validate of the item-attribute matrix using two levels of attributes (Level 1 attributes and Level 2 sub-attributes), and (2) through retrofitting the diagnostic models to the mathematics test of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), to evaluate the construct validity of TIMSS mathematics assessment by comparing the results of two assessment booklets. Item data were extracted from Booklets 2 and 3 for the 8th grade in TIMSS 2007, which included a total of 49 mathematics items and every student's response to every item. The study developed three categories of attributes at two levels: content, cognitive process (TIMSS or new), and comprehensive cognitive process (or IT) based on the TIMSS assessment framework, cognitive procedures, and item type. At level one, there were 4 content attributes (number, algebra, geometry, and data and chance), 3 TIMSS process attributes (knowing, applying, and reasoning), and 4 new process attributes (identifying, computing, judging, and reasoning). At level two, the level 1 attributes were further divided into 32 sub-attributes. There was only one level of IT attributes (multiple steps/responses, complexity, and constructed-response). Twelve Q-matrices (4 originally specified, 4 random, and 4 revised) were investigated with eleven Q-matrix models (QM1 ~ QM11) using multiple regression and the least squares distance method (LSDM). Comprehensive analyses indicated that the proposed Q-matrices explained most of the variance in item difficulty (i.e., 64% to 81%). The cognitive process attributes contributed to the item difficulties more than the content attributes, and the IT attributes contributed much more than both the content and process attributes. The new retrofitted process attributes explained the items better than the TIMSS process attributes. Results generated from the level 1 attributes and the level 2 attributes were consistent. Most attributes could be used to recover students' performance, but some attributes' probabilities showed unreasonable patterns. The analysis approaches could not demonstrate if the same construct validity was supported across booklets. The proposed attributes and Q-matrices explained the items of Booklet 2 better than the items of Booklet 3. The specified Q-matrices explained the items better than the random Q-matrices.

Estratégias de comercialização e investimento, com ênfase em energias renováveis, suportadas por modelos de otimização especializados para avaliação estocástica de risco x retorno.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

Optimal synthesis of liquid-liquid multistage extractors

Presentation in the 11th European Symposium of the Working Party on Computer Aided Process Engineering, Kolding, Denmark, May 27-30, 2001.

An analog input-output system for the ILLIAC II.

Issued also as thesis, University of Illinois.