MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Lanseringen och etableringen av ett socialt problem : En analys av debatten om ledarkulturen inom svensk landslagsgymnastik i Dagens Nyheter 2012–2013

The launching and establishment of a social problem: An analysis of the debate on Swedish national level gymnastics in Dagens Nyheter 2012-2013 In 2012 Sweden’s largest daily newspaper, Dagens Nyheter, published a number of articles on the state of affairs in Swedish national level gymnastics. In these articles, ex-gymnasts, coaches, parents and physicians stepped forward and testified about recurrent wrongdoings and abuse against young (particularly) female gymnasts. In response to the criticism, the accused coaches and representatives of the Swedish Gymnastics Federation downsized or dismissed the criticism as inaccurate. This being said, and using discursive psychology and a qualitative design, this article sheds light upon this debate – by viewing it as a struggle between a hegemonic discourse of ”the goodness” of sports, on the one hand, a number of unfavorable and negative testimonies of the state of affairs in Swedish national level gymnastics on the other. More concretely, this struggle has been analyzed with regard to the discursive and rhetoric resources the involved parties’ used to pursue their claims about the state of affairs in Swedish national level gymnastics and the impact these resources had for their credibility and legitimacy. Questions were: Who is entitled ”to spell out” their view on the state of affairs within Swedish national level gymnastics? What is mediated and how? How are descriptions and accounts about reality constructed as credible and factual? It is concluded that social problems are launched via co-production; in this process, the gymnastics community, the research community, single individuals, and the media – were co-actors. 

Are schools able to bring sense into pupils' lives? - an experiment to use Antonovsky's concept sense of coherence from a school perspective. : Paper presented at the ENIRDEM conference in Kilkenny, Ireland 26th-29th September, 2002

Young people now spend a longer and longer period of their lives at school then ever before. Not always because that they want to, but because society has nothing else to offer. The situation in many schools may also, in different aspects, be seen as highly problematic. Andersson (2001) has, for example, found in a large longitudinal study - The Life Project – that schools seem to be adapted to the needs of only a minority of the students - around 30%. On the other hand school is badly adjusted to the requirements of another 30 %. This group of students often find school meaningless, uninteresting and boring. For these students school is mostly a waste of time. In such circumstances, it seems natural that society has a responsibility to offer young people a meaningful time at school, both here and now and to prepare them for a future live as adults, not only as a part of the work force.As a part of departure I briefly describe the model that Antonovsky has developed and try to use it in a school context instead. I have here, of course, no possibility to make a deeper analysis of a complex problem such as this.In Antonovsky’s spirit, using a salutogenic perspective, instead of asking ourselves why do pupils fail or perhaps also not like being at school we have to ask, instead: What it is that makes pupils successful? From this background the purpose of this paper is to discuss some aspects of how pupils may use different strategies to handle their school situation in a proper way.

The effects of Ikea and external shopping centers on regional trade and retail growth : A comparative analysis of Ikea’s establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad

This paper examines the effects of Ikea store establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad on the trade and retail inside the two cities, and as well on the trade and retail in the close neighboring municipalities and in further peripheral municipalities in both regions. After the establishment of Ikea store, Kalmar and Karlstad have experienced significant growth in trade and retail. The question, however, is how big this growth is in both cities? And how different locations on different distances from Ikea have been affected? What impact there was on different segments of the retail? How different business branches have been affected? How large the catchment area for the emerging new large-scale retail locations is? These questions, in addition to few others, are investigated in this paper. The thesis starts with an introduction chapter containing a background of the topic, problem description, the investigated questions, the purpose, and the outline of the paper. The next chapter includes the frame of reference which consists of literature review and theoretical framework about the external shopping centers and their impact on retail and regional trade development. It includes also information gathered from previous studies technical reports and other available sources about the subject. The third chapter includes description for the methods used to collect the primary and secondary data needed for the purpose of this study. Then the empirical framework which demonstrates the results of the conducted research followed by analysis and concluded in discussion and conclusion. Mixed methods are used as research strategy in this thesis, and the method to conduct the research is based on telephone interviews for the primary (qualitative) data, and documents and desk research for the secondary (quantitative) data. The gathered data is analyzed and designed in a way that allows the usage of comparative analysis technique to present the findings and draw conclusions. The results showed that new established Ikea retail store outside the city boundaries results with many effects on the city center and on the neighboring municipalities as well. The city center seems not to be affected negatively, but on the contrary positive effects were witnessed in both regions, these positive effects are linked to the increase inflow of customers from the external retail area which is known as spillover effect. III On the other hand, the neighboring towns and municipalities are more negatively affected especially with the trade of con-convenience goods as the consumers in these towns and municipalities start to go to the area of Ikea and the large external retail center to do their purchasing, the substitution effect is then said to be occurred. Moreover, the further far municipalities do not seem to be significantly affected by the establishment of Ikea. These effects whether positive or negative could be monitored by looking to few trade parameters such as the turnover, the sales index, and the consumers’ expenditure, these parameters can be very useful to measure the developments and changes in the trade and retail in a given place. 

A Diagnostic Assessment Of Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization For Water Resources Systems

This study contributes a rigorous diagnostic assessment of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and highlights key advances that the water resources field can exploit to better discover the critical tradeoffs constraining our systems. This study provides the most comprehensive diagnostic assessment of MOEAs for water resources to date, exploiting more than 100,000 MOEA runs and trillions of design evaluations. The diagnostic assessment measures the effectiveness, efficiency, reliability, and controllability of ten benchmark MOEAs for a representative suite of water resources applications addressing rainfall-runoff calibration, long-term groundwater monitoring (LTM), and risk-based water supply portfolio planning. The suite of problems encompasses a range of challenging problem properties including (1) many-objective formulations with 4 or more objectives, (2) multi-modality (or false optima), (3) nonlinearity, (4) discreteness, (5) severe constraints, (6) stochastic objectives, and (7) non-separability (also called epistasis). The applications are representative of the dominant problem classes that have shaped the history of MOEAs in water resources and that will be dominant foci in the future. Recommendations are provided for which modern MOEAs should serve as tools and benchmarks in the future water resources literature.

Verification Of The Standard Vector Data Model For Interoperability Of River-Geospatial Information

Recently, two international standard organizations, ISO and OGC, have done the work of standardization for GIS. Current standardization work for providing interoperability among GIS DB focuses on the design of open interfaces. But, this work has not considered procedures and methods for designing river geospatial data. Eventually, river geospatial data has its own model. When we share the data by open interface among heterogeneous GIS DB, differences between models result in the loss of information. In this study a plan was suggested both to respond to these changes in the information envirnment and to provide a future Smart River-based river information service by understanding the current state of river geospatial data model, improving, redesigning the database. Therefore, primary and foreign key, which can distinguish attribute information and entity linkages, were redefined to increase the usability. Database construction of attribute information and entity relationship diagram have been newly redefined to redesign linkages among tables from the perspective of a river standard database. In addition, this study was undertaken to expand the current supplier-oriented operating system to a demand-oriented operating system by establishing an efficient management of river-related information and a utilization system, capable of adapting to the changes of a river management paradigm.

Um algoritmo de criptografia de chave pública semanticamente seguro baseado em curvas elípticas

Esta dissertação apresenta o desenvolvimento de um novo algoritmo de criptografia de chave pública. Este algoritmo apresenta duas características que o tornam único, e que foram tomadas como guia para a sua concepção. A primeira característica é que ele é semanticamente seguro. Isto significa que nenhum adversário limitado polinomialmente consegue obter qualquer informação parcial sobre o conteúdo que foi cifrado, nem mesmo decidir se duas cifrações distintas correspondem ou não a um mesmo conteúdo. A segunda característica é que ele depende, para qualquer tamanho de texto claro, de uma única premissa de segurança: que o logaritmo no grupo formado pelos pontos de uma curva elíptica de ordem prima seja computacionalmente intratável. Isto é obtido garantindo-se que todas as diferentes partes do algoritmo sejam redutíveis a este problema. É apresentada também uma forma simples de estendê-lo a fim de que ele apresente segurança contra atacantes ativos, em especial, contra ataques de texto cifrado adaptativos. Para tanto, e a fim de manter a premissa de que a segurança do algoritmo seja unicamente dependente do logaritmo elíptico, é apresentada uma nova função de resumo criptográfico (hash) cuja segurança é baseada no mesmo problema.

Análise do perfil dos clientes de academias de ginástica : o primeiro passo para o planejamento estratégico

Neste estudo, buscou-se identificar as motivações humanas para a prática de atividade física, a fim de compreender os motivos de aderência e permanência dos indivíduos nas academias de ginástica, e a partir disso, contribuir para criar a base de uma estratégia de marketing voltada à fidelização de clientes de academias. Como metodologia, adotou-se a pesquisa descritiva como forma de aplicar conhecimentos na direção da solução de um problema específico, composto de duas etapas distintas: a primeira qualitativa (com caráter exploratório) e a segunda quantitativa (através da estruturação, aplicação de um questionário, para verificar e mensurar o comportamento dos consumidores de academias de ginástica). A partir da coleta, tabulação e análise dos resultados obtidos sobre a motivação dos clientes de academias, foi possível criar orientações para o planejamento estratégico voltado à fidelização dos clientes de academias de ginástica.

Conflito de interesses nas companhias de capital aberto e o novo padrão de transparência do IFRS : um estudo empírico dos mecanismos voluntários dedicados às transações entre partes relacionadas

O trabalho está inserido na grande área do direito societário, especificamente sob a temática dos conflitos de interesses nas deliberações de S.A.´s listadas em Bolsa de Valores. O objetivo assumido foi o de percorrer criticamente as propostas teóricas empregadas na interpretação do problema jurídico resultante destes conflitos, para depois realizar um estudo empírico sobre uma modalidade negocial potencialmente conflitiva, as transações entre partes relacionadas. Após o estudo da lógica norteadora das propostas doutrinárias, sustenta-se a hipótese de que as explicações da literatura jurídica brasileira variam na razão do conceito aberto de “interesse da companhia”, articulado de acordo com a posição da parte representada pelo advogado. Arbitrariamente concebidas como formais ou substancias, tais interpretações cuidam do momento de violação do interesse da companhia, respectivamente, visando proibir ou garantir o exercício de voto do interessado por meio de entendimentos convenientes ao tempo do litígio. Diante deste comprometimento do raciocínio abstrato com a prática da advocacia, sugere-se a abordagem do tema por outra proposta teórica, vinculada a uma noção específica do Direito. Compreendido como um provedor de informações relevantes aos interessados nas operações das empresas, ele atua na regulação dos dados exigidos destas sociedades e na confecção das informações produzidas individualmente por elas. Tal transparência, junto das regras que vinculam o mercado, forma o conteúdo conceitual da expressão governança corporativa, desenvolvido em torno da proposta chamada de “sistema de governança corporativa”. A interpretação das informações dos diversos possíveis sistemas deve oferecer ao tomador de decisão a chance de conhecer os seus poderes, prerrogativas, incentivos, competências, limitações e proibições, de modo a avaliar se a sua escolha é uma boa prática de governo da empresa, segundo o sistema no qual ela opera. Aos terceiros interessados, deve servir para verificar se o processo decisório segue o esperado pelo ambiente negocial que o sistema de governança delineia. No tema do conflito de interesses, a sugestão de pensar o problema por esta noção do Direito visa respaldar a criação e divulgação de regras próprias pelas empresas listadas, as quais alimentem o aludido sistema de governança e sirvam à tomada de decisões que orientem o alinhamento dos objetivos dissonantes envolvidos na companhia, sem que haja a necessidade de recorrer ao arbitramento externo. O trabalho empírico se debruça então nos estudos destas regras particulares aplicáveis às transações entre partes relacionadas, tais mecanismos são colhidos nos formulários de referência das 100 companhias mais líquidas da BM&FBovespa no ano de 2011. Os resultados mostram que apenas 6% das empresas possuem procedimentos para identificar as relações conflituosas decorrentes da modalidade negocial estudada e 29% para tratar o problema. Os números relativos às sociedades que estabelecem regras para a administração dos conflitos de interesses nas deliberações de assembleia geral e conselho de administração também são baixos, respectivamente, 7% e 13% apresentam mecanismos de identificação, 4% e 11% para o seu tratamento. A baixa frequência mostrada pelos resultados à luz da proposta teórica construída identifica uma oportunidade, qual seja, a de pensar a mitigação do problema por esta via particular e extrajudicial.

On the efficiency of equal sacrifice income tax schedules

In an economy which primitives are exactly those in Mirrlees (1971), we investigate the efficiency of labor income tax schedules derived under the equal sacrifice principle. Starting from a given government revenue level, we use Werning’s (2007b) approach to assess whether there is an alternative tax schedule to the one derived under the equal sacrifice principle that raises more revenue while delivering less utility to no one. For our preferred parametrizations of the problem we find that inefficiency only arises at very high levels of income. We also show how the multipliers of the Pareto problem may be extracted from the data and used to find the implicit marginal social weights associated with each level of income.

Integrating open innovation in the social innovation process: an exploratory study

Inovação tem se tornado um fenômeno cada vez mais complexo e dinâmico, com a mudança de um paradigma focado na inovação industrial, onde a inovação acontecia no produto ou no processo de fabricação, para outro baseado no conhecimento, muito mais amplo. Além disso, o conhecimento e a competência técnica não são mais considerados como um monopólio do departamento de pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Isto trouxe mudanças nas práticas de inovação, que se tornaram mais abertas e levaram as empresas a interagir cada vez mais com o seu ambiente. Por outro lado, a inovação tecnológica, cujo primeiro objetivo é de criar valor para a empresa, tem experimentado alguns limites para resolver problemas sociais, como o aquecimento global. As novas tecnologias têm a capacidade de melhorar a qualidade de vida de muita gente, mas não é suficiente. É nesse contexto que surge outro tipo de inovação, cujo objetivo é de maximizar o impacto positivo na sociedade: a inovação social. Estes dois paradigmas de inovação, mais adequados aos desafios atuais, têm alguns pontos em comum na sua integração com o ambiente externo: a sociedade e outros atores da inovação. No entanto, praticamente não existem estudos integrando inovação aberta e inovação social. Este trabalho estuda a integração destes dois modelos a partir de uma pesquisa exploratória, realizando entrevistas em profundidade com 11 dirigentes de organizações sociais. As iniciativas sociais parecem atrair mais organizações externas para colaborar do que empresas com fins lucrativos, já que são mais altruístas. Parecem integrar essas pessoas e procurar por mais ajuda, especialmente no momento de escalar o negócio. Ainda que algumas organizações têm como prioridade institucionalizar a inovação aberta, outras veem isto como secundário ou simplesmente não sabem como fazer. Isto resulta em uma colaboração mais informal, que não é focada em atividades de pesquisa e desenvolvimento, prática ausente nas empresas da nossa amostra.

Sacredness of the constitutional text and interpretative heresy: the Brazilian Supreme Court decision on same-sex civil unions

The paper provides a close lecture of the arguments and methods of legal construction, employed in the extensive individual opinions written by the Justices of the Brazilian Supreme Court in the case which authorized the same sex civil union. After tracing an outline of the legal problem and his possible solutions, we analyze the individual opinions, showing their methodological syncretism, the use of legal methods and arguments in a contradictory way as well the deficiencies in the reasoning. The Justices use legal arguments, but do not meet the requirements of rationality in the decision-making. We have a rhetorical attempt that aims to satisfy the public opinion than to offer a comprehensive and coherent solution according the normative elements of the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988.

Effects of the basic fibroblast growth factor and its anti-factor in the healing and collagen maturation of infected skin wound

PURPOSE: The infection is one of the main factors that affect the physiological evolution of the surgical wounds. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of fibroblast growth factor (FGFâ) and anti-FGFâ in the healing, synthesis and maturation of collagen when topically used on infected skin wounds of rats. METHODS: An experimental study was perfomed in 60 male Wistar rats. All animals were divided in two groups (A and B). Each group was divided in three subgroups A1, B1; A2, B2 and A3, B3. After anesthesia with pentobarbital, two open squared wounds (1cm2), 4cm distant to each other, were done in the dorsal skin of all the rats. In group A (n=30) the wounds were contaminated with multibacterial standard solution, and in group B(n=30) the wounds were maintained sterile. These wounds were named F1 (for inflammation analysis) and F2 (for collagen study). The open wounds of A1 and B1 rats were topically treated with saline solution, A2 and B2 were treated with FGFâ and subgroups A3 and B3 were treated with FGFâ and anti-FGFâ. The rats were observed until complete epitelization of F2 wounds for determination of healing time and the expression of types I and III collagen, using Picro Sirius Red staining. Inflammatory reaction in F1 wounds was studied using hematoxilineosin staining. The three variable was measured by the Image Pro-Plus Média Cybernetics software. The statistical analysis was performed by ANOVA and Tukey test, considering p<0.05 as significant. RESULTS: It was observed that infection retarded significantly (p<0.05) the time of wound scarring and the topical application of FCFb reverted the inhibition of healing caused by bacteria. The inflammatory reaction was greater in the subgroup B2 than in B1 and A3, and the difference was significant (p<0.05). It was observed greater expression of type I collagen in all the subgroups treated with FCFb, when compared with the untreated subgroups. Type III collagen was significantly decreased in wounds of B3 rats, comparing to the other subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The FCFb accelerated the healing of open infected wounds and contributed with maturation of collagen, enhancing the type I collagen density. The anti-FCFb antibody was able to attenuate the production of both type I and III collagen

Reserva de cargos e empregos públicos a pessoas com deficiência: instituições federais de ensino no RN

With a focus on the need for effectiveness of fundamental rights of persons with disabilities, this dissertation held a scientific research to analyze the degree of implementation of reservation of positions and public jobs to people with disabilities in the Brazilian State, because the 1988 Federal Constitution expressly determined such a reservation in your article 37, VIII. Highlight that this subject is enough evidence, given the large number of open public competition in recent years in Brazil, as well as recent proposals to grant equal rights to blacks (Bill nº 6,738/2013). In addition, the wording the constitutional device comes fomenting heated discussions on the subject, which are flowing on the doors of the judiciary and are spicy because such protection Microsystem vulnerable group has several gaps in the regulation of this policy. However, the research produced, unlike other related theme, does not address the problem of inefficiency in its constitutional theory, that is, abstractly, but also focuses on a specific analysis of this ineffectiveness within Brazilian society, so that research based on a bibliographical analysis, plus a study case law, at the national level, as well as in field research, while case study, focusing on the technique of the analysis of everyday life, because it was believed that the degree of realization of the constitutional norm debated is not yet a satisfactory degree of effectiveness. Soon, the methodological procedures chosen confirmed such a hypothesis and contributed to the study of realization of the fundamental right to work of people with disabilities in Brazil, the light of a Constitutional State, proposing a constitutionally appropriate model the greater effectiveness of the constitutional norm studied

Diagnóstico sócio-produtivo-econômico da comunidade de catadores de resíduos sólidos do município de Codó-MA: um estudo de caso

The research was carried out in the urban area in Codó-MA, a small city the east part of Maranhão, which has 4,228.000 km2 (IBGE, 2000) and population of 113,768 hab. (IBGE, 2008). The city is also inside Codó-MA micro-region. The city is located in one of the lacking area in Brazil, where the Human Development Index (IDH) is approximately 0,558. It does not present an adequate model of management when talking about solid residue collecting. All of the solid residue produced and collected in the city is stored in an open area that they call lixão , which is located in a residence area in the suburbs. Because of that, a problem that involves public health and environmental areas, we understand it is necessary to investigate the way the local government treats and manages the solid residue collecting, as well as, the social, economical and productive reality of those who are directly involved in the collecting itself, its productive chain of the material, including the handling, transportation and its final destiny. It means a social, productive, economical diagnosis, that in a such way,the local society and the organs of inspection can act in a better way to control the problems that include solid urban residue and come from a bad administration. That way, this work proposes to carry out a study that has as result a diagnosis with feasible alternatives on management, taking as basis, social and economical aspects that compound this productive chain. This work can bring great contributions to a better local reality through the introduction of an integrated and supported system of management of solid residue that includes a selective collecting and the creation of a sanitary area. Taking that into consideration, we can contribute to minimize the environmental impacts in Codó Novo, caused by the garbage