Study of the Reliability of Statistical Timing Analysis for Real-Time Systems

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.

Is mental practice an effective adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke? A systematic review and meta- analysis

Stroke is one of the most common conditions requiring rehabilitation, and its motor impairments are a major cause of permanent disability. Hemiparesis is observed by 80% of the patients after acute stroke. Neuroimaging studies showed that real and imagined movements have similarities regarding brain activation, supplying evidence that those similarities are based on the same process. Within this context, the combination of mental practice (MP) with physical and occupational therapy appears to be a natural complement based on neurorehabilitation concepts. Our study seeks to investigate if MP for stroke rehabilitation of upper limbs is an effective adjunct therapy. PubMed (Medline), ISI knowledge (Institute for Scientific Information) and SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library) were terminated on 20 February 2015. Data were collected on variables as follows: sample size, type of supervision, configuration of mental practice, setting the physical practice (intensity, number of sets and repetitions, duration of contractions, rest interval between sets, weekly and total duration), measures of sensorimotor deficits used in the main studies and significant results. Random effects models were used that take into account the variance within and between studies. Seven articles were selected. As there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (MP vs control), showed a - 0.6 (95% CI: -1.27 to 0.04), for upper limb motor restoration after stroke. The present meta-analysis concluded that MP is not effective as adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke.

Clinical Outcome and Morphologic Analysis after Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Using the Excluder Endograft

OBJECTIVE: Long-term follow-up after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is very scarce, and doubt remains regarding the durability of these procedures. We designed a retrospective cohort study to assess long-term clinical outcome and morphologic changes in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) treated by EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis (W. L. Gore and Associates, Flagstaff, Ariz). METHODS: From 2000 to 2007, 179 patients underwent EVAR in a tertiary institution. Clinical data were retrieved from a prospective database. All patients treated with the Excluder endoprosthesis were included. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans were retrospectively analyzed preoperatively, at 30 days, and at the last follow-up using dedicated tridimensional reconstruction software. For patients with complications, all remaining CTAs were also analyzed. The primary end point was clinical success. Secondary end points were freedom from reintervention, sac growth, types I and III endoleak, migration, conversion to open repair, and AAA-related death or rupture. Neck dilatation, renal function, and overall survival were also analyzed. RESULTS: Included were 144 patients (88.2% men; mean age, 71.6 years). Aneurysms were ruptured in 4.9%. American Society of Anesthesiologists classification was III/IV in 61.8%. No patients were lost during a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range, 3.1-6.4; maximum, 11.2 years). Two patients died of medical complications ≤ 30 days after EVAR. The estimated primary clinical success rates at 5 and 10 years were 63.5% and 41.1%, and secondary clinical success rates were 78.3% and 58.3%, respectively. Sac growth was observed in 37 of 142 patients (26.1%). Cox regression showed type I endoleak during follow-up (hazard ratio, 3.74; P = .008), original design model (hazard ratio, 3.85; P = .001), and preoperative neck diameter (1.27 per mm increase, P = .006) were determinants of sac growth. Secondary interventions were required in 32 patients (22.5%). The estimated 10-year rate of AAA-related death or rupture was 2.1%. Overall life expectancy after AAA repair was 6.8 years. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis provides a safe and lasting treatment for AAA, despite the need for maintained surveillance and secondary interventions. At up to 11 years, the risk of AAA-related death or postimplantation rupture is remarkably low. The incidences of postimplantation sac growth and secondary intervention were greatly reduced after the introduction of the low-permeability design in 2004.

Blood Donation in the Hospital de S. José. A 11-Year Retrospective Analysis of Deferrals and Exclusions

Background: Approximately 5% of the population donates blood each year in developed countries. Recruiting and maintaining a pool of altruistic and healthy blood donors is a challenging task. Blood donation as a dynamic process must naturally co-exist with the arguably essential deferrals. Aims: To analyse a 11-year cohort of donors and blood donations in order to determine the profile of the average donor and the typical donation. Characterize the donor’s population in terms of gender, age, number of donations, most common causes for deferral and exclusion and the possible relationships between them. Establish the tendency flow of donations per year. Methods: Analysis of 95861 blood donations from 31550 donors collected between 2000 and 2010 (11 years) in the Immunohemotherapy Department of the ‘‘Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Central - Hospital de Sa˜o Jose´’’ (Lisboa, Portugal). Prior to blood donation, donors were required to fill out a form of informed consent, a questionnaire of 21 ‘‘yes or no’’ questions and were submitted to a clinical assessment and physical examination including: measurement of weight, blood pressure, pulse and capillary hemoglobin levels. Post-donation, the collected blood was tested for ALT elevation and blood-borne viral agents (HBV, HCV, HIV 1 and 2 and HTLV 1 and 2) and other infections (Treponema pallidum). Blood donors and donations were registered in a database and statistically studied in terms of: gender and age distribution, number of donations, most common causes for deferral and exclusion. The frequency of blood donations throughout the period of observation was analyzed and statistically significant relationships between the collected variables were investigated. Results: From the population of 31550 donors 61% were male and a mean age of 41.5 years (± 12.5 years) was found. From the total of 95682 blood donations collected 78% were successful while the most common causes for deferral were: donation incompatible hemoglobin levels (5% of the blood donations and 22% of deferrals), ALT elevation (3% and 14%), positive blood screening test for Treponema pallidum (1% and 6%), medication (1% and 4%), positive serological blood markers for HBV (1% and 4%), endoscopy in the previous 12 months (1% and 3%), arterial hypertension (1% and 3%), infectious conditions (1% and 3%), influenza or influenza-like symptoms (1% and 2%) and positive serological blood markers for HCV (1% and 2%). Summary/Conclusions: Several factors may have contributed to a limited number of new regular donors in the population, namely: ageing population, the alienation of the individual from the community induced by modern lifestyles and job precariousness. It is of the utmost importance to refine our blood donation campaigns according to the existing population of donors. The optimization of the blood donation potential of a population of donors must be achieved through the development of reliable and consistent screening methods. In order to appeal to new donors it is important to promote blood donations considering the profile of the regular and healthy blood donor of the existing population.

Time series morphological analysis applied to biomedical signals events detection

Dissertation submitted in the fufillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master in Biomedical Engineering

Atherogenesis and atherosclerosis in primary antiphospholipid syndrome

ABSTRACT: In the late seventies the term “Haematological Stress Syndrome” defined some haematological abnormalities appearing in the course of acute and chronic disorders, such as raised plasma levels of fibrinogen (FNG) and factor VIII, reduced fibrinolytic activity and hyperviscosity. In the early nineties the “Membrane stress syndrome hypothesis” proposed the unification of the concepts of haematological stress syndrome with those of oxidation, inflammation and immune activation to explain the pathogenesis of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) Antiphospholipid antibodies, coagulation, fibrinolysis and thrombosis. This chapter investigated the occurrence of the “Haematological Stress Syndrome” and thrombosis in 144 participants positive for aPL detected by clotting and immune tests. Among the clotting assays for the detection of lupus anticoagulant, dilute Russell's viper venom time better correlated with a history of venous thrombosis than activated partial thromboplastin time (p<0.0002 vs p<0.009) and was the only test correlated with a history of arterial thrombosis (p<0.01). By regression analysis, serum levels of IgG anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) associated with the number of venous occlusions (p<0.001). With regards to FNG and von Willebrand factor (vWF), the former rose by 36% (95% CI; 21%, 53%) and the latter by 50% (95% CI; 29%, 75%) at the first venous occlusion and remained unchanged after subsequent occlusions. At variance FNG rose by 45% (95% CI; 31%, 60%) per arterial occlusion and vWF by 27% (95% CI; 10%, 47%) per arterial occlusion throughout. The coagulation/fibrinolytic balance was cross-sectionally evaluated on 18 thrombotic PAPS patients, 18 subjects with persistence of idiopathic aPL and in healthy controls. Markers of thrombin generation prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2), thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT) and of fibrin turnover D-Dimer (D-D) were higher in thrombotic (p=0.006)and non-thrombotic subjects (p=0.0001) than in controls as were those of D-D (p<0.0001 and p=0.003 respectively). TAT levels did not differ. Gender analysed data revealed blunted tPA release (hence a negative venous occlusion test) in thrombotic females but neither in thrombotic males (p=0.01) nor in asymptomatic subjects of either sex. Also, in both patient groups females had higher mean PAI than males (p<0.0002) and control females (p<0.02). The activity of factor XIII (FXIIIa) was evaluated was evaluated in 29 patients with PAPS, 14 persistent carriers of aPL without thrombosis, 24 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia, 28 healthy controls and 32 patients with mitral and aortic valve prosthesis as controls for FXIII only. FXIIIa was highest in PAPS (p=0.001), particularly in patients with multiple (n=12) than single occlusion (p=0.02) and in correlation with PAI (p=0.003) and FNG (p=0.005). Moreover FXIIIa was strongly associated with IgG aCL and IgG anti-2GPI (p=0.005 for both) in the PAPS group and to a lesser degree in the aPL group (FXIIIa with IgG aCL, p=0.02, with IgG anti-2GPI, p=0.04). Altogether these results indicate: 1) a differential relationship of aPL, vWF and FNG with venous and arterial thrombosis; 2) heightened thrombin generation, accelerated fibrin turnover and fibrinolysis abnormalities also in asymptomatic carriers of aPLs; 3) enhanced FXIIIa that may contribute to atherothrombosis via increased fibrin/fibrinogen cross-linking. Lipid profile, lipid peroxidation and anti-lipoprotein antibodies in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. Given the atherogenic lipid profile of SLE, the same possibility was explored in PAPS by comparing high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (CHO), apolipoprotein AI (ApoAI), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), triglycerides (TG), anti-lipoprotein antibodies, beta-2-glycoprotein I complexed to oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL-2GPI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in 34 thrombotic PAPS patients compared to 36 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), to 18 subjects persistently positive for antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) with no underlying autoimmune or non-autoimmune disorders and to 28 healthy controls. Average concentrations of HDL (p<0.0001), LDL (p<0.0001), CHO (p=0.0002), ApoAI (p=0.002) were lower in PAPS whereas average TRY was higher (p=0.01) than other groups. Moreover PAPS showed higher IgG anti-HDL (p=0.01) and IgG anti-ApoAI (p<0.0001) as well as greater average oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.001) and CRP (p=0.003). Within PAPS, IgG anti-HDL correlated negatively to HDL (p=0.004) and was an independent predictor of oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.009). HDL and ApoAI correlated negatively with CRP (p=0.001 and p=0.007, respectively). IgG anti-HDL may hamper the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effect of HDL favouring low-grade inflammation and enhanced oxidation in thrombotic PAPS. Indeed plasma 8-epi-prostaglandin F2α (a very specific marker of lipid peroxidation) was significantly higher in 10 patients with PAPS than 10 age and sex matched healthy subjects (p=0.0002) and strongly related to the titre of plasma IgG aCL (r=0.89, p=0.0004). Hence oxidative stress, a major player in atherogenesis, also characterises PAPS. Nitric oxide and nitrative stress in thrombotic primary antiphosholipid syndrome. Oxidative stress goes hand in hand with nitrative stress and to address the latter plasma nitrotyrosine (NT, marker of nitrative stress), nitrite (NO2-) and nitrate (NO3-) were measured in 46 thrombotic PAPS patients, 21 asymptomatic but persistent carriers of antiphospholipid antibodies (PCaPL), 38 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), 33 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and 29 healthy controls (CTR). Average crude NT was higher in PAPS and SLE (p=0.01) whereas average plasma NO2- was lower in PAPS and average NO3- highest in SLE (p<0.0001). In PAPS, IgG aCL titer and number of vascular occlusions negatively predicted NO2-, (p=0.03 and p=0.001, respectively) whereas arterial occlusions and smoking positively predicted NO3- (p=0.05 and p=0.005). Moreover CRP (an inflammatory marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade inflammation and both phenomena may have implications for thrombosis and atherosclerosis in PAPS Inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. To investigate inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic PAPS high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), oxLDL-2GPI, CRP bound to oxLDL-2GPI (CRP-oxLDL-2GPI) (as inflammatory markers) neopterin (NPT) and soluble CD14 (sCD14) (as immune activation markers) were measured by ELISA in 41 PAPS patients, in 44 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT) and 39 controls (CTR). Compared to other groups, PAPS presented with higher plasma concentrations of inflammatory, hs-CRP (p=0.0004), SAA (p<0.01), CRP-oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.0004) and immune activation markers, NPT (p<0.0001) and sCD14 (p=0.007). By regression analysis SAA independently predicted thrombosis number (p=0.003) and NPT independently predicted thrombosis type (arterial, p=0.03) and number (p=0.04). These data confirm that low-grade inflammation and immune activation occur and relate to vascular features of PAPS. Antiphosholipid antibodies, haemostatic variables and atherosclerosis in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome To evaluate whether IgG aCL titre, haemostatic variables and the lipid profile bore any relationship to the intima media thickness (IMT) of carotid arteries high-resolution sonography was applied to the common carotid (CC), carotid bifurcation (CB) and internal carotid (IC) of 42 aPL subjects, 29 with primary thrombotic antiphospholipid syndrome and 13 with persistence of aPL in the absence of any underlying disorder. The following were measured: plasma FNG, vWF, PAI, homocysteine (HC), CHO, TG, HDL, LDL, platelet numbers and aCL of IgG and IgM isotype. By multiple regression analysis, IgG aCL titre independently predicted IMT at all carotid segments examined (p always <0.005). Plasma FNG and HC independently predicted IMT at the CB (p=0.001 and p<0.0001, respectively) and IC (p=0.03 and p<0.0001, respectively). These data strongly support an atherogenic role for IgG aCL in patients with aPL in addition to traditional risk factors. The atherosclerosis hypothesis was investigated in an age and sex-matched case-double-control study including 49 thrombotic PAPS patients (18 M, 31 F, mean age 37 ± 11), 49 thrombotic patients for IT and 49 healthy subjects. Average IMT was always greater in PAPS than control patients (CC: p=0.004, CB: p=0.013, IC: p=0.001). By dividing participants into age tertiles the IMT was greater in the second (CC: p=0.003, CB: p=0.023, IC: p=0.003) and third tertiles (CC: p=0.03, CB: p=0.004, IC: p=0.007). Conclusion: Coagulation activation, fibrinolysis depression, hightened fibrin turnover, oxidative and nitrative stress in parallel with low grade inflammation and immune activation characterise thrombotic PAPS: all these are early atherogenic processes and contribute to the demonstrated premature atherosclerosis that should be considered a clinical feature of PAPS.

Analysis of the use of fenthion via epicutaneous in dogs for Rhipicephalus sanguineus control

The action of fenthion was studied in a 15% epicutaneous formulation upon Rhipicephalus sanguineus, which may transmit pathogens to men and other animals, such as Ehrlichia, Babesia and Ricketsia. Dogs were artificially infected for the trial. The fenthion bioassays were begun four months after artificial infestation. The test group, having a mean of 186 ticks per dog, received the formulation dosage according to body weight on the neck region. Tick counts were performed, considering diameters > or = 2mm, during 11 days of treatment, in the most affected body areas: back, ears and paws. Before the application of fenthion in the dogs, it were observed an average 43.3% ticks in the ears, 38.1% in the back area and 17.6% in the paws. The number of ticks in dogs decreased by 36.2%, 63.8%, 82.7%, 67%, 40% and 4.9%, respectively on days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11 after treatment. R. sanguineus anti-tick activity, lower than that officially recommended, was verified. The number of ticks increased progressively after the 5th day, demonstrating residual insecticide inefficacy. The results obtained did not indicate the use of this formulation, at the tested dosage, as an elective measure for R. sanguineus control.

Multivariate analysis applied to clinical analysis data

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Hepatitis C: sexual or intrafamilial transmission? Epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus in 24 infected couples

The role of sexual or intrafamilial transmission of hepatitis C is controversial. A phylogenetic analysis was performed on the non-structural region 5B of the hepatitis C virus (NS5B-HCV). High percentages of homology (mean of 98.3%) were shown between the couples. Twenty (83.3%) of the 24 men but only two of the women (8.3%) reported having had sexually transmitted diseases during their lives. The risk factors for HCV acquisition were blood transfusion (10 couples), use of illegal injected drugs (17), use of inhalants (15), acupuncture (5) and tattoos (5). The shared use of personal hygiene items included toothbrushes between six couples (25%), razor blades between 16 (66.7%), nail clippers between 21 (87.5%) and manicure pliers between 14 (58.3%). The high degree of similarity of the hepatitis C virus genome supports the hypothesis of hepatitis C virus transmission between these couples. The shared use of personal hygiene items suggests the possibility of intrafamilial transmission of infection.

Analysis of the direct and indirect costs of treatment of imported malaria in the Slovak Republic

This study analyzed the approximate cost of treatment of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of imported malaria in Slovakia. Between 2003 and 2007, 15 patients with imported malaria were hospitalized. The mean direct cost of the treatment was 970.75 euros and the mean indirect cost was 53.15 euros. For the patient with the highest cost of treatment, the use of mefloquine prophylaxis would have represented only 0.5% of the total direct cost of treating the disease. Despite the partial resistance of plasmodia, malaria chemoprophylaxis is unequivocally a cheaper choice than subsequent treatment of malaria.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): coexistence and susceptibility to temephos, in municipalities with occurrence of dengue and differentiated characteristics of urbanization

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to verify the coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in municipalities of the States of Paraná and Santa Catarina with different urbanization profiles where dengue occurs and evaluate their susceptibility to the organophosphate temephos. METHODS: The number of eggs per ovitrap were counted and incubated for hatching to identify the species. Data analysis of the populations was conducted to determine randomness and aggregation, using the variance-to-mean ratio (index of dispersion). Susceptibility to temephos was evaluated by estimation of the resistance ratios RR50 and RR95. Aedes aegypti samples were compared with the population Rockefeller and Aedes albopictus samples were compared with a population from the State of Santa Catarina and with the Rockefeller population. RESULTS: Coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the aggregation of their eggs were observed at all the sites analyzed in the State of Paraná. CONCLUSIONS: All the Aedes aegypti populations from the State of Parana showed alteration in susceptibility status to the organophosphate temephos, revealing incipient resistance. Similarly, all the Aedes albopictus populations (States of Paraná and Santa Catarina) presented survival when exposed to the organophosphate temephos.

Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: analysis of admissions and mortality time series

INTRODUCTION: A time series study of admissions, deaths and acute cases was conducted in order to evaluate the context of Chagas disease in Pernambuco. METHODS: Data reported to the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health Service between 1980 and 2008 was collected for regions and Federal Units of Brazil; and microregions and municipalities of Pernambuco. Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of hospitalization, mortality and acute cases were calculated using a national hospital database (SIH), a national mortality database (SIM) and the national Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), respectively. RESULTS: The national average for Chagas disease admissions was 0.99 from 1995 to 2008. Pernambuco obtained a mean of 0.39 in the same period, with the highest rates being concentrated in the interior of the state. The state obtained a mean mortality rate of 1.56 between 1980 and 2007, which was lower than the national average (3.66). The mortality rate has tended to decline nationally, while it has remained relatively unchanged in Pernambuco. Interpolating national rates of admissions and deaths, mortality rates were higher than hospitalization rates between 1995 and 2007. The same occurred in Pernambuco, except for 2003. Between 2001 and 2006, rates for acute cases were 0.56 and 0.21 for Brazil and Pernambuco, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a decrease in Chagas mortality has occurred in Brazil, the disease remains a serious public health problem, especially in the Northeast region. It is thus essential that medical care, prevention and control regarding Chagas disease be maintained and improved.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Fatores de prognóstico para os resultados de sucesso da fisioterapia multimodal em utentes com dor cervical crónica

RESUMO: Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.--------------- ABSTRACT:Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047-1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109-0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Curso clínico da dor lombar crónica após alta da fisioterapia : trajetórias de dor no follow-up aos quatro e seis meses

RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.-----------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047- 1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109- 0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.