The division of labour under uncertainty

Reductions in the division of labour are a significant feature of modern developments in work organisation. It has been recognised that a reduced division of labour can have the advantages of job enrichment and lower coordination costs. In this paper it is shown how advantages from a lesser division of labour can stem from the flow of work between different sets of resources where the work rates of individual production stages are subject to uncertainties. Both process and project-based work are considered. Implications for the boundaries of the firm and for innovation processes are noted.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Endothelin-converting enzyme-1 degrades internalized somatostatin-14

Agonist-induced internalization of somatostatin receptors (ssts) determines subsequent cellular responsiveness to peptide agonists and influences sst receptor scintigraphy. To investigate sst2A trafficking, rat sst2A tagged with epitope was expressed in human embryonic kidney cells and tracked by antibody labeling. Confocal microscopical analysis revealed that stimulation with sst and octreotide induced internalization of sst2A. Internalized sst2A remained sequestrated within early endosomes, and 60 min after stimulation, internalized sst2A still colocalized with beta-arrestin1-enhanced green fluorescence protein (EGFP), endothelin-converting enzyme-1 (ECE-1), and rab5a. Internalized (125)I-Tyr(11)-SST-14 was rapidly hydrolyzed by endosomal endopeptidases, with radioactive metabolites being released from the cell. Internalized (125)I-Tyr(1)-octreotide accumulated as an intact peptide and was released from the cell as an intact peptide ligand. We have identified ECE-1 as one of the endopeptidases responsible for inactivation of internalized SST-14. ECE-1-mediated cleavage of SST-14 was inhibited by the specific ECE-1 inhibitor, SM-19712, and by preventing acidification of endosomes using bafilomycin A(1). ECE-1 cleaved SST-14 but not octreotide in an acidic environment. The metallopeptidases angiotensin-1 converting enzyme and ECE-2 did not hydrolyze SST-14 or octreotide. Our results show for the first time that stimulation with SST-14 and octreotide induced sequestration of sst2A into early endosomes and that endocytosed SST-14 is degraded by endopeptidases located in early endosomes. Furthermore, octreotide was not degraded by endosomal peptidases and was released as an intact peptide. This mechanism may explain functional differences between octreotide and SST-14 after sst2A stimulation. Moreover, further investigation of endopeptidase-regulated trafficking of neuropeptides may result in novel concepts of neuropeptide receptor inactivation in cancer diagnosis.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble flood forecasting: a review.

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the ‘added value’ of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

Cox-dependent fatty acid metabolites cause pain through activation of the irritant receptor TRPA1.

Prostaglandins (PG) are known to induce pain perception indirectly by sensitizing nociceptors. Accordingly, the analgesic action of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) results from inhibition of cyclooxygenases and blockade of PG biosynthesis. Cyclopentenone PGs, 15-d-PGJ(2), PGA(2), and PGA(1), formed by dehydration of their respective parent PGs, PGD(2), PGE(2), and PGE(1), possess a highly reactive alpha,beta-unsaturated carbonyl group that has been proposed to gate the irritant transient receptor potential A1 (TRPA1) channel. Here, by using TRPA1 wild-type (TRPA1(+/+)) or deficient (TRPA1(-/-)) mice, we show that cyclopentenone PGs produce pain by direct stimulation of nociceptors via TRPA1 activation. Cyclopentenone PGs caused a robust calcium response in dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons of TRPA1(+/+), but not of TRPA1(-/-) mice, and a calcium-dependent release of sensory neuropeptides from the rat dorsal spinal cord. Intraplantar injection of cyclopentenone PGs stimulated c-fos expression in spinal neurons of the dorsal horn and evoked an instantaneous, robust, and transient nociceptive response in TRPA1(+/+) but not in TRPA1(-/-) mice. The classical proalgesic PG, PGE(2), caused a slight calcium response in DRG neurons, increased c-fos expression in spinal neurons, and induced a delayed and sustained nociceptive response in both TRPA1(+/+) and TRPA1(-/-) mice. These results expand the mechanism of NSAID analgesia from blockade of indirect nociceptor sensitization by classical PGs to inhibition of direct TRPA1-dependent nociceptor activation by cyclopentenone PGs. Thus, TRPA1 antagonism may contribute to suppress pain evoked by PG metabolites without the adverse effects of inhibiting cyclooxygenases.

Cigarette smoke-induced neurogenic inflammation is mediated by α,β-unsaturated aldehydes and the TRPA1 receptor in rodents

Cigarette smoke (CS) inhalation causes an early inflammatory response in rodent airways by stimulating capsaicin-sensitive sensory neurons that express transient receptor potential cation channel, subfamily V, member 1 (TRPV1) through an unknown mechanism that does not involve TRPV1. We hypothesized that 2 alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes present in CS, crotonaldehyde and acrolein, induce neurogenic inflammation by stimulating TRPA1, an excitatory ion channel coexpressed with TRPV1 on capsaicin-sensitive nociceptors. We found that CS aqueous extract (CSE), crotonaldehyde, and acrolein mobilized Ca2+ in cultured guinea pig jugular ganglia neurons and promoted contraction of isolated guinea pig bronchi. These responses were abolished by a TRPA1-selective antagonist and by the aldehyde scavenger glutathione but not by the TRPV1 antagonist capsazepine or by ROS scavengers. Treatment with CSE or aldehydes increased Ca2+ influx in TRPA1-transfected cells, but not in control HEK293 cells, and promoted neuropeptide release from isolated guinea pig airway tissue. Furthermore, the effect of CSE and aldehydes on Ca2+ influx in dorsal root ganglion neurons was abolished in TRPA1-deficient mice. These data identify alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes as the main causative agents in CS that via TRPA1 stimulation mediate airway neurogenic inflammation and suggest a role for TRPA1 in the pathogenesis of CS-induced diseases.

Neurogenic responses mediated by vanilloid receptor-1 (TRPV1) are blocked by the high affinity antagonist, iodo-resiniferatoxin

(1) Stimulation of the vanilloid receptor-1 (TRPV1) results in the activation of nociceptive and neurogenic inflammatory responses. Poor specificity and potency of TRPV1 antagonists has, however, limited the clarification of the physiological role of TRPV1. (2) Recently, iodo-resiniferatoxin (I-RTX) has been reported to bind as a high affinity antagonist at the native and heterologously expressed rat TRPV1. Here we have studied the ability of I-RTX to block a series of TRPV1 mediated nociceptive and neurogenic inflammatory responses in different species (including transfected human TRPV1). (3) We have demonstrated that I-RTX inhibited capsaicin-induced mobilization of intracellular Ca(2+) in rat trigeminal neurons (IC(50) 0.87 nM) and in HEK293 cells transfected with the human TRPV1 (IC(50) 0.071 nM). (4) Furthermore, I-RTX significantly inhibited both capsaicin-induced CGRP release from slices of rat dorsal spinal cord (IC(50) 0.27 nM) and contraction of isolated guinea-pig and rat urinary bladder (pK(B) of 10.68 and 9.63, respectively), whilst I-RTX failed to alter the response to high KCl or SP. (5) Finally, in vivo I-RTX significantly inhibited acetic acid-induced writhing in mice (ED(50) 0.42 micro mol kg(-1)) and plasma extravasation in mouse urinary bladder (ED(50) 0.41 micro mol kg(-1)). (6) In in vitro and in vivo TRPV1 activated responses I-RTX was approximately 3 log units and approximately 20 times more potent than capsazepine, respectively. This high affinity antagonist, I-RTX, may be an important tool for future studies in pain and neurogenic inflammatory models.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2oC temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4oC by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4oC pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.