Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

An efficient tagging data interpretation and representation scheme for item recommendation

A tag-based item recommendation method generates an ordered list of items, likely interesting to a particular user, using the users past tagging behaviour. However, the users tagging behaviour varies in different tagging systems. A potential problem in generating quality recommendation is how to build user profiles, that interprets user behaviour to be effectively used, in recommendation models. Generally, the recommendation methods are made to work with specific types of user profiles, and may not work well with different datasets. In this paper, we investigate several tagging data interpretation and representation schemes that can lead to building an effective user profile. We discuss the various benefits a scheme brings to a recommendation method by highlighting the representative features of user tagging behaviours on a specific dataset. Empirical analysis shows that each interpretation scheme forms a distinct data representation which eventually affects the recommendation result. Results on various datasets show that an interpretation scheme should be selected based on the dominant usage in the tagging data (i.e. either higher amount of tags or higher amount of items present). The usage represents the characteristic of user tagging behaviour in the system. The results also demonstrate how the scheme is able to address the cold-start user problem.

Non-destructive DNA extraction from Chironomidae, including of fragile pupal exuviae, extends analysable collections and enhances vouchering

It is well established that the traditional taxonomy and nomenclature of Chironomidae relies on adult males whose usually characteristic genitalia provide evidence of species distinction. In the early days some names were based on female adults of variable distinctiveness – but females are difficult to identify (Ekrem et al. 2010) and many of these names remain dubious. In Russia especially, a system based on larval morphology grew in parallel to the conventional adult-based system. The systems became reconciled with the studies that underlay the production of the Holarctic generic keys to Chironomidae, commencing notably with the larval volume (Wiederholm, 1983). Ever since Thienemann’s pioneering studies, it has been evident that the pupa, notably the cast skins (exuviae) provide a wealth of features that can aid in identification (e.g. Wiederholm, 1986). Furthermore, the pupae can be readily associated with name-bearing adults when a pharate (‘cloaked’) adult stage is visible within the pupa. Association of larvae with the name-bearing later stages has been much more difficult, time-consuming and fraught with risk of failure. Yet it is identification of the larval stage that is needed by most applied researchers due to the value of the immature stages of the family in aquatic monitoring for water quality, although the pupal stage also has advocates (reviewed by Sinclair & Gresens, 2008). Few use the adult stage for such purposes as their provenance and association with the water body can be verified only by emergence trapping, and sampling of adults lies outside regular aquatic monitoring protocols.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

What patient information allows us to make accurate predictions of outcome?

Only some of the information contained in a medical record will be useful to the prediction of patient outcome. We describe a novel method for selecting those outcome predictors which allow us to reliably discriminate between adverse and benign end results. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic as a nonparametric measure of discrimination, we show how to calculate the maximum discrimination attainable with a given set of discrete valued features. This upper limit forms the basis of our feature selection algorithm. We use the algorithm to select features (from maternity records) relevant to the prediction of failure to progress in labour. The results of this analysis motivate investigation of those predictors of failure to progress relevant to parous and nulliparous sub-populations.

Feature selection using expected attainable discrimination

We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.

Health communication: A pilot study comparing perceptions of women with and without high functioning autism spectrum disorder

Research indicates significant health disparities for individuals with autism. Insight into characteristic sensory, cognitive, communication, social, emotional, and behavioural challenges that may influence health communication for patients with autism is vital to address potential disparities. Women with high functioning autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may have specific healthcare needs, and are likely to independently represent themselves and others in healthcare. A pilot study compared perceptions of healthcare experiences for women with and without ASD using on-line survey based on characteristics of ASD likely to influence healthcare. Fifty-eight adult female participants (32 with ASD diagnosis, 26 without ASD diagnosis) were recruited on-line from autism support organisations. Perceptions measured included self-reporting of pain and symptoms, healthcare seeking behaviours, the influence of emotional distress, sensory and social anxiety, maternity experiences, and the influence of autistic status disclosure. Results partially support the hypothesis that ASD women experience greater healthcare challenges. Women with ASD reported greater challenges in healthcare anxiety, communication under emotional distress, anxiety relating to waiting rooms, support during pregnancy, and communication during childbirth. Self-disclosure of diagnostic status and lack of ASD awareness by healthcare providers rated as highly problematic. Results offer detailed insight into healthcare communication and disparities for women with ASD.

The clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia as a routine assessment in nursing homes

Objective To examine the clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) in nursing homes. Setting 14 nursing homes in Sydney and Brisbane, Australia. Participants 92 residents with a mean age of 85 years. Measurements Consenting residents were assessed by care staff for depression using the CSDD as part of their routine assessment. Specialist clinicians conducted assessment of depression using the Semi-structured Clinical Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders for residents without dementia or the Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression in Alzheimer Disease for residents with dementia to establish expert clinical diagnoses of depression. The diagnostic performance of the staff completed CSDD was analyzed against expert diagnosis using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The CSDD showed low diagnostic accuracy, with areas under the ROC curve being 0.69, 0.68 and 0.70 for the total sample, residents with dementia and residents without dementia, respectively. At the standard CSDD cutoff score, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 59% for the total sample, 69% and 57% for residents with dementia, and 75% and 61% for residents without dementia. The Youden index (for optimizing cut-points) suggested different depression cutoff scores for residents with and without dementia. Conclusion When administered by nursing home staff the clinical utility of the CSDD is highly questionable in identifying depression. The complexity of the scale, the time required for collecting relevant information, and staff skills and knowledge of assessing depression in older people must be considered when using the CSDD in nursing homes.

A novel ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

Ambiguity validation as an important procedure of integer ambiguity resolution is to test the correctness of the fixed integer ambiguity of phase measurements before being used for positioning computation. Most existing investigations on ambiguity validation focus on test statistic. How to determine the threshold more reasonably is less understood, although it is one of the most important topics in ambiguity validation. Currently, there are two threshold determination methods in the ambiguity validation procedure: the empirical approach and the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacks of theoretical basis. The fixed failure rate approach has a rigorous probability theory basis, but it employs a more complicated procedure. This paper focuses on how to determine the threshold easily and reasonably. Both FF-ratio test and FF-difference test are investigated in this research and the extensive simulation results show that the FF-difference test can achieve comparable or even better performance than the well-known FF-ratio test. Another benefit of adopting the FF-difference test is that its threshold can be expressed as a function of integer least-squares (ILS) success rate with specified failure rate tolerance. Thus, a new threshold determination method named threshold function for the FF-difference test is proposed. The threshold function method preserves the fixed failure rate characteristic and is also easy-to-apply. The performance of the threshold function is validated with simulated data. The validation results show that with the threshold function method, the impact of the modelling error on the failure rate is less than 0.08%. Overall, the threshold function for the FF-difference test is a very promising threshold validation method and it makes the FF-approach applicable for the real-time GNSS positioning applications.

Deformation of a single red blood cell in a microvessel

Red blood cells (RBCs) are the most common type of cells in human blood and they exhibit different types of motions and deformed shapes in capillary flows. The behaviour of the RBCs should be studied in order to explain the RBC motion and deformation mechanism. This article presents a numerical simulation method for RBC deformation in microvessels. A two dimensional spring network model is used to represent the RBC membrane, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. The forces acting on the RBC membrane are obtained from the principle of virtual work. The whole fluid domain is discretized into a finite number of particles using smoothed particle hydrodynamics concepts and the motions of all the particles are solved using Navier--Stokes equations. Minimum energy concepts are used to simulate the deformed shape of the RBC model. To verify the model, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in a Poiseuille flow and the characteristic parachute shape of the RBC is observed. Further simulations reveal that the RBC shows a tank treading motion when it flows in a linear shear flow.

Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles (EVs) - present and future trends

100 year old gasoline engine technology vehicles have now become one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases. Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) have been proposed to achieve environmental friendly transportation. Even though the PEV usage is currently increasing, a technology breakthrough would be required to overcome battery related drawbacks. Although battery technology is evolving, drawbacks inherited with batteries such as; cost, size, weight, slower charging characteristic and low energy density would still be dominating constrains for development of EVs. Furthermore, PEVs have not been accepted as preferred choice by many consumers due to charging related issues. To address battery related limitations, the concept of dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) enabled EVs have been proposed in which EV is being charged while it is in motion. WPT enabled infrastructure has to be employed to achieve dynamic EV charging concept. The weight of the battery pack can be reduced as the required energy storage is lower if the vehicle can be powered wirelessly while driving. Stationary WPT charging where EV is charged wirelessly when it is stopped, is simpler than dynamic WPT in terms of design complexity. However, stationary WPT does not increase vehicle range compared to wired-PEVs. State-of-art WPT technology for future transportation is discussed in this chapter. Analysis of the WPT system and its performance indices are introduced. Modelling the WPT system using different methods such as equivalent circuit theory, two port network theory and coupled mode theory is described illustrating their own merits in Sect. 2.3. Both stationary and dynamic WPT for EV applications are illustrated in Sect. 2.4. Design challenges and optimization directions are analysed in Sect. 2.5. Adaptive tuning techniques such as adaptive impedance matching and frequency tuning are also discussed. A case study for optimizing resonator design is presented in Sect. 2.6. Achievements by the research community is introduced highlighting directions for future research.

Unmodified silver nanoparticles for rapid analysis of the organophosphorus pesticide, dipterex, often found in different waters

A novel, uncomplicated and rapid method of analysis for organophosphorus (OP) pesticides was researched and developed using the important, common OP, dipterex, as a typical example. The basis of the method involved the citrate-capped silver nanoparticles (citrate-capped AgNPs) and Acetylthiocholine (ATCh). The latter compound can be catalyzed by Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) to form thiocholine (TCh), which induces the aggregation of AgNPs. Correspondingly, the color of AgNPs in solution changes from bright yellow to pink, and the UV–vis characteristic absorption peak of AgNPs at about 400 nm decreases; simultaneously, a new absorption band appears at about 520 nm. Irreversible inhibition of AChE activity caused by dipterex, prevents the aggregation of AgNPs. Thus, a UV–vis spectrophotometric method was developed for the analysis of dipterex. The absorbance ratio A396 nm/A520 nm was found to be linearly related to the concentration of dipterex in the range of 0.25–37.5 ng mL−1 with a detection limit of 0.18 ng mL−1. This method was used successfully to analyse dipterex in spiked, different water samples.

Memory and Epileptogenesis in Complex Biological and Simulated Systems

Oscillations of neural activity may bind widespread cortical areas into a neural representation that encodes disparate aspects of an event. In order to test this theory we have turned to data collected from complex partial epilepsy (CPE) patients with chronically implanted depth electrodes. Data from regions critical to word and face information processing was analyzed using spectral coherence measurements. Similar analyses of intracranial EEG (iEEG) during seizure episodes display HippoCampal Formation (HCF)—NeoCortical (NC) spectral coherence patterns that are characteristic of specific seizure stages (Klopp et al. 1996). We are now building a computational memory model to examine whether spatio-temporal patterns of human iEEG spectral coherence emerge in a computer simulation of HCF cellular distribution, membrane physiology and synaptic connectivity. Once the model is reasonably scaled it will be used as a tool to explore neural parameters that are critical to memory formation and epileptogenesis.

Design democratisation and its understandings through the meaning of the word “design” in Portuguese colonised countries

This paper explores the literature and analyses the different uses and understandings of the word “design” in Portuguese colonised countries, using Brazil as the main example. It investigates the relationship between the linguistic existence of terms to define and describe “design” as an activity and field, and the roles and perceptions of Design by the general society. It also addresses the effects that the lack of a proper translation causes on the local community from a cultural point of view. The current perception of Design in Portuguese colonies is associated to two main aspects: linguistic and historical. Both of them differentiate the countries taken into consideration from other countries that have a different background. The changes associated to the meaning of “design” throughout the years, caused a great impact on the perceptions that people have about Design. On the other hand, the development of Design has also influenced the changes on the meaning of the term, as a result of the legacy from the colonisation period and also as a characteristic of the Portuguese language. Design has developed and reached a level of excellence in Portuguese colonised countries that competes with the most traditional Design cultures in the world. However, this level of Design is enmeshed into an elite belonging to universities and specialised markets, therefore Design is not democratised. The ultimate aim of this study is to promote discussions on how to make the discourse surrounding this area more accessible to people from non-English speaking countries that do not have the word “design” in their local language.

Mechanistic details of the membrane perforation and passive translocation of TAT peptides

The trans-activator of transcription (TAT) peptide is regarded as the “gold standard” for cell-penetrating peptides, capable of traversing a mammalian membrane passively into the cytosolic space. This characteristic has been exploited through conjugation of TAT for applications such as drug delivery. However, the process by which TAT achieves membrane penetration remains ambiguous and unresolved. Mechanistic details of TAT peptide action are revealed herein by using three complementary methods: quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D), scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). When combined, these three scales of measurement define that the membrane uptake of the TAT peptide is by trans-membrane insertion using a “worm-hole” pore that leads to ion permeability across the membrane layer. AFM data provided nanometre-scale visualisation of TAT punctuation using a mammalian-mimetic membrane bilayer. The TAT peptide does not show the same specificity towards a bacterial mimetic membrane and QCM-D and SECM showed that the TAT peptide demonstrates a disruptive action towards these membranes. This investigation supports the energy-independent uptake of the cationic TAT peptide and provides empirical data that clarify the mechanism by which the TAT peptide achieves its membrane activity. The novel use of these three biophysical techniques provides valuable insight into the mechanism for TAT peptide translocation, which is essential for improvements in the cellular delivery of TAT-conjugated cargoes including therapeutic agents required to target specific intracellular locations.