995 resultados para Logistic rationalization


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Background: To study the characteristics of vascular aphasia in a cohort of patients with a first-ever stroke. Methods: All patients admitted to the Lausanne neurology department for a first-ever stroke between 1979 and 2004 were included. Neurological examination including language was performed on admission. Stroke risk factors, stroke origin and location, associated symptoms and Rankin scale scores were recorded for each patient. The influence of these factors on aphasia frequency and subtypes was analyzed using logistic regression models. Results: 1,541 (26%) of patients included in this study had aphasia. The more frequent clinical presentations were expressive-receptive aphasia (38%) and mainly expressive aphasia (37%), whereas mainly receptive aphasia was less frequently observed (25%). In ischemic stroke, the frequency of aphasia increased with age (55% of nonaphasic vs. 61% of aphasic patients were more than 65 years old), female sex (40% of women in the nonaphasia group vs. 44% in the aphasia group) and risk factors for cardioembolic origin (coronary heart disease 20 vs. 26% and atrial fibrillation 15 vs. 24%). Stroke aphasia was more likely associated with superficial middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke and leads to relevant disability. Clinical subtypes depended on stroke location and associated symptoms. Exceptions to the classic clinical-topographic correlations were not rare (26%). Finally, significant differences were found for patients with crossed aphasia in terms of stroke origin and aphasia subtypes. Conclusions: Risk factors for stroke aphasia are age, cardioembolic origin and superficial MCA stroke. Exceptions to classic clinical-topographic correlations are not rare. Stroke aphasia is associated with relevant disability. Stroke location and associated symptoms strongly influence aphasia subtypes.

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BACKGROUND: Prediction of clinical course and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is important. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether clinical scales (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS], Injury Severity Score [ISS], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) or radiographic scales based on admission computed tomography (Marshall and Rotterdam) were associated with intensive care unit (ICU) physiology (intracranial pressure [ICP], brain tissue oxygen tension [PbtO2]), and clinical outcome after severe TBI. METHODS: One hundred one patients (median age, 41.0 years; interquartile range [26-55]) with severe TBI who had ICP and PbtO2 monitoring were identified. The relationship between admission GCS, ISS, APACHE II, Marshall and Rotterdam scores and ICP, PbtO2, and outcome was examined by using mixed-effects models and logistic regression. RESULTS: Median (25%-75% interquartile range) admission GCS and APACHE II without GCS scores were 3.0 (3-7) and 11.0 (8-13), respectively. Marshall and Rotterdam scores were 3.0 (3-5) and 4.0 (4-5). Mean ICP and PbtO2 during the patients' ICU course were 15.5 ± 10.7 mm Hg and 29.9 ± 10.8 mm Hg, respectively. Three-month mortality was 37.6%. Admission GCS was not associated with mortality. APACHE II (P = .003), APACHE-non-GCS (P = .004), Marshall (P < .001), and Rotterdam scores (P < .001) were associated with mortality. No relationship between GCS, ISS, Marshall, or Rotterdam scores and subsequent ICP or PbtO2 was observed. The APACHE II score was inversely associated with median PbtO2 (P = .03) and minimum PbtO2 (P = .008) and had a stronger correlation with amount of time of reduced PbtO2. CONCLUSION: Following severe TBI, factors associated with outcome may not always predict a patient's ICU course and, in particular, intracranial physiology.

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Résumé Ce travail s'inscrit dans un programme de recherche centré sur la pharmacovigilance en psychiatrie. Buts de l'étude Les nouveaux antipsychotiques atypiques sont prescrits avec beaucoup de succès, parce qu'ils présentent une sécurité dans leur emploi bien supérieure à celle des antipsychotiques classiques. Cette situation a conduit à une large prescription «off-label» (hors indication admise). Le but de ce travail a été d'étudier la pratique en matière de prescription des psychiatres hospitaliers en ce qui concerne les antipsychotiques en comparant des patients traités pour des psychoses ou d'autres indications officielles aux patients recevant un traitement antipsychotique «off-label». Méthode Dans le cadre d'un programme de pharmacovigilance - pharmacoépidemiologie, tous les médicaments prescrits à 5 jours de référence (entre 1999 et 2001) à l'hôpital psychiatrique universitaire de Lausanne (98 lits) ont été enregistrés, avec des données sur l'âge, le sexe et le diagnostic des patients. Les prescriptions de 202 patients ont été évaluées. Les patients ont été classés dans 3 groupes diagnostiques : (1) patient présentant des troubles psychotiques, (2) patient présentant des épisodes maniaques et des épisodes dépressifs avec des symptômes psychotiques, et (3) patient présentant d'autres troubles. Les groupes (1) et (2) forment une classe de patients recevant un antipsychotique pour une indication officielle, et les prescriptions dans le groupe (3) ont été considérées comme «off-label». Résultats principaux Moins de patients psychotiques ont reçu un antidépresseur (p<0.05) ou des hypnotiques non-benzodiazepine (p<0.001) comparés aux patients des deux autres groupes. Les patients présentant des troubles affectifs recevaient seulement exceptionnellement une combinaison d'un antipsychotique atypique et conventionnel, tandis qu'un nombre inférieur de patients avec des indications « off-label » ont reçu moins .souvent des antipsychotiques atypiques que ceux des deux groupes de comparaison (p<0.05). L'analyse statistique (stepwise logistic regression) a révélé que les patients présentant des troubles psychotiques avaient un risque plus élevé de recevoir un médicament antipsychotique d'une dose moyenne ou élevée, (p<0.001) en comparaison aux deux autres groupes. Conclusion Les nouveaux médicaments antipsychotiques semblent être prescrits avec moins d'hésitation principalement pour des indications admises. Les médecins prescrivent de nouveaux médicaments « off-label » seulement après avoir acquis une certaine expérience dans le domaine des indications approuvées, et ils étaient plus prudents en ce qui concerne la dose en traitant sur la base «off-label». Abstract Objective The new brands of atypical antipsychotics are very successfully prescribed because of their enhanced safety profiles and their larger pharmacological profile in comparison to the conventional antipsychotic. This has led to broad off-label utilisation. The aim of the present survey was to study the prescription practice of hospital psychiatrists with regard to antipsychotic drugs, comparing patients treated for psychoses or other registered indications to patients receiving an off-label antipsychotic treatment. Method As part of a pharmacovigilance/pharmacoepidemiology program, all drugs given on 5 reference days (1999 - 2001) in the 98-bed psychiatric hospital of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, were recorded along with age, sex and diagnosis. The prescriptions of 202 patients were assessed. Patients were classified in 3 diagnostic groups: (1) patient with psychotic disorders, (2) patients with manic episodes and depressive episodes with psychotic symptoms, and (3) patients with other disorders. Group (1) and (2) formed the class of patients receiving an antipsychotic for a registered indication, and the prescriptions in group (3) were considered as off-label. Main results A lesser number of psychotic patients received antidepressant (p<0.05) and nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics (p<0.001) compared to the patients of the other two groups. The patients with affective disorders received only exceptionally a combination of an atypical and a conventional antipsychotic, whereas a lesser number of patients with off-label indications received less often atypical antipsychotics than those of the two comparison groups (p<0.05). Stepwise logistic regression revealed that patients with psychotic disorder were at higher risk of receiving an antipsychotic medication in medium or high dose (p<0.001), in comparison to the two other groups. Conclusions The new antipsychotic drugs seem to be prescribed with less hesitation mainly for approved indications. Physicians prescribe new drugs on off-label application only after having gained some experience in the field of the approved indications, and were more cautious with regard to dose when treating on an off-label basis.

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BACKGROUND: In order to facilitate and improve the use of antiretroviral therapy (ART), international recommendations are released and updated regularly. We aimed to study if adherence to the recommendations is associated with better treatment outcomes in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: Initial ART regimens prescribed to participants between 1998 and 2007 were classified according to IAS-USA recommendations. Baseline characteristics of patients who received regimens in violation with these recommendations (violation ART) were compared to other patients. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to identify associations between violation ART and (i) virological suppression and (ii) CD4 cell count increase, after one year. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2007, 4189 SHCS participants started 241 different ART regimens. A violation ART was started in 5% of patients. Female patients (adjusted odds ratio aOR 1.83, 95%CI 1.28-2.62), those with a high education level (aOR 1.49, 95%CI 1.07-2.06) or a high CD4 count (aOR 1.53, 95%CI 1.02-2.30) were more likely to receive violation ART. The proportion of patients with an undetectable viral load (<400 copies/mL) after one year was significantly lower with violation ART than with recommended regimens (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.37-0.80) whereas CD4 count increase after one year of treatment was similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although more than 240 different initial regimens were prescribed, violations of the IAS-USA recommendations were uncommon. Patients receiving these regimens were less likely to have an undetectable viral load after one year, which strengthens the validity of these recommendations.

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OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to develop a score for assessing risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis. METHODS: The derivation cohort comprised 974 ischemic stroke patients treated (1995-2008) with IV thrombolysis at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The predictive value of parameters associated with sICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II) was evaluated, and we developed our score according to the magnitude of logistic regression coefficients. We calculated absolute risks and likelihood ratios of sICH per increasing score points. The score was validated in 828 patients from 3 Swiss cohorts (Lausanne, Basel, and Geneva). Performance of the score was tested with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Our SEDAN score (0 to 6 points) comprises baseline blood Sugar (glucose; 8.1-12.0 mmol/l [145-216 mg/dl] = 1; >12.0 mmol/l [>216 mg/dl] = 2), Early infarct signs (yes = 1) and (hyper)Dense cerebral artery sign (yes = 1) on admission computed tomography scan, Age (>75 years = 1), and NIH Stroke Scale on admission (≥10 = 1). Absolute risk for sICH in the derivation cohort was: 1.4%, 2.9%, 8.5%, 12.2%, 21.7%, and 33.3% for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 score points, respectively. In the validation cohort, absolute risks were similar (1.0%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 9.2%, 16.9%, and 27.8%, respectively). AUC-ROC was 0.77 (0.71-0.83; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Our SEDAN score reliably assessed risk for sICH in IV thrombolysis-treated patients with anterior- and posterior circulation ischemic stroke, and it can support clinical decision making in high-risk patients. External validation of the score supports its generalization.

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OBJECTIVES: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) and analyses of their risk factors are scarce. We evaluated their prevalence and risk factors in a large nationwide cohort of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. METHODS: IBD patients from an adult clinical cohort in Switzerland (Swiss IBD cohort study) were prospectively included. Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 41 years) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 42 years). Of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to five EIMs. The following EIMs were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Multiple logistic regression identified the following risk factors for ongoing EIM in CD: active disease (odds ratio (OR)=1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.17-3.23, P=0.01), and positive IBD family history (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. CONCLUSIONS: EIMs are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitating their diagnosis and therapeutic management.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the evolution of delirium of nursing home (NH) residents and their possible predictors. DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort assessment. SETTING: Ninety NHs in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Included 14,771 NH residents. MEASUREMENTS: The Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set and the Nursing Home Confusion Assessment Method were used to determine follow-up of subsyndromal or full delirium in NH residents using discrete Markov chain modeling to describe long-term trajectories and multiple logistic regression analyses to determine predictors of the trajectories. RESULTS: We identified four major types of delirium time courses in NH. Increasing severity of cognitive impairment and of depressive symptoms at the initial assessment predicted the different delirium time courses. CONCLUSION: More pronounced cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms at the initial assessment are associated with different subsequent evolutions of delirium. The presence and evolution of delirium in the first year after NH admission predicted the subsequent course of delirium until death.

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Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.

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Background: Since generic drugs have the same therapeutic effect as the original formulation but at generally lower costs, their use should be more heavily promoted. However, a considerable number of barriers to their wider use have been observed in many countries. The present study examines the influence of patients, physicians and certain characteristics of the generics' market on generic substitution in Switzerland.Methods: We used reimbursement claims' data submitted to a large health insurer by insured individuals living in one of Switzerland's three linguistic regions during 2003. All dispensed drugs studied here were substitutable. The outcome (use of a generic or not) was modelled by logistic regression, adjusted for patients' characteristics (gender, age, treatment complexity, substitution groups) and with several variables describing reimbursement incentives (deductible, co-payments) and the generics' market (prices, packaging, co-branded original, number of available generics, etc.).Results: The overall generics' substitution rate for 173,212 dispensed prescriptions was 31%, though this varied considerably across cantons. Poor health status (older patients, complex treatments) was associated with lower generic use. Higher rates were associated with higher out-of-pocket costs, greater price differences between the original and the generic, and with the number of generics on the market, while reformulation and repackaging were associated with lower rates. The substitution rate was 13% lower among hospital physicians. The adoption of the prescribing practices of the canton with the highest substitution rate would increase substitution in other cantons to as much as 26%.Conclusions: Patient health status explained a part of the reluctance to substitute an original formulation by a generic. Economic incentives were efficient, but with a moderate global effect. The huge interregional differences indicated that prescribing behaviours and beliefs are probably the main determinant of generic substitution.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. DESIGN: Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. SETTING: Rehabilitation clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. RESULTS: Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.

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This study compared adherence (persistence and execution) during pregnancy and postpartum in HIV-positive women having taken part in the adherence-enhancing program of the Community Pharmacy of the Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine in Lausanne between 2004 and 2012. This interdisciplinary program combined electronic drug monitoring and semi-structured, repeated motivational interviews. This was a retrospective, observational study. Observation period spread over from first adherence visit after last menstruation until 6 months after childbirth. Medication-taking was recorded by electronic drug monitoring. Socio-demographic and delivery data were collected from Swiss HIV Cohort database. Adherence data, barriers and facilitators were collected from pharmacy database. Electronic data were reconciled with pill-count and interview notes in order to include reported pocket-doses. Execution was analyzed over 3-day periods by a mixed effect logistic model, separating time before and after childbirth. This model allowed us to estimate different time slopes for both periods and to show a sudden fall associated with childbirth. Twenty-five pregnant women were included. Median age was 29 (IQR: 26.5, 32.0), women were in majority black (n_17,68%) and took a cART combining protease and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (n_24,96%). Eleven women (44%) were ART-naı¨ve at the beginning of pregnancy. Twenty women (80%) were included in the program because of pregnancy. Women were included at all stages of pregnancy. Six women (24%) stopped the program during pregnancy, 3 (12%) at delivery, 4 (16%) during postpartum and 12 (48%) stayed in program at the end of observation time. Median number of visits was 4 (3.0, 6.3) during pregnancy and 3 (0.8, 6.0) during postpartum. Execution was continuously high during pregnancy, low at beginning of postpartum and increased gradually during the 6 months of postpartum. Major barriers to adherence were medication adverse events and difficulties in daily routine. Facilitators were motivation for promoting child-health and social support. The dramatic drop and very slow increase in cART adherence during postpartum might result in viral rebound and drug resistance. Although much attention is devoted to pregnant women, interdisciplinary care should also be provided to women in the community during first trimester of postpartum to support them in sustaining cART adherence.

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The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.

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The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

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MOTIVATION: In silico modeling of gene regulatory networks has gained some momentum recently due to increased interest in analyzing the dynamics of biological systems. This has been further facilitated by the increasing availability of experimental data on gene-gene, protein-protein and gene-protein interactions. The two dynamical properties that are often experimentally testable are perturbations and stable steady states. Although a lot of work has been done on the identification of steady states, not much work has been reported on in silico modeling of cellular differentiation processes. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we provide algorithms based on reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (ROBDDs) for Boolean modeling of gene regulatory networks. Algorithms for synchronous and asynchronous transition models have been proposed and their corresponding computational properties have been analyzed. These algorithms allow users to compute cyclic attractors of large networks that are currently not feasible using existing software. Hereby we provide a framework to analyze the effect of multiple gene perturbation protocols, and their effect on cell differentiation processes. These algorithms were validated on the T-helper model showing the correct steady state identification and Th1-Th2 cellular differentiation process. AVAILABILITY: The software binaries for Windows and Linux platforms can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/~garg/genysis.html.

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BACKGROUND: Male carriers of the FMR1 premutation are at risk of developing the fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS), a newly recognised and largely under-diagnosed late onset neurodegenerative disorder. Patients affected with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Cognitive decline has also been associated with the premutation, but the lack of data on its penetrance is a growing concern for clinicians who provide genetic counselling. METHODS: The Mattis Dementia Rating Scale (MDRS) was administered in a double blind fashion to 74 men aged 50 years or more recruited from fragile X families (35 premutation carriers and 39 intrafamilial controls) regardless of their clinical manifestation. Based on previous publications, marked cognitive impairment was defined by a score <or=123 on the MDRS. RESULTS: Both logistic and survival models confirmed that in addition to age and education level, premutation size plays a significant (p<0.01 and p<0.03 for logistic and survival model, respectively) role in cognitive impairment. The estimated penetrance of marked cognitive impairment in our sample (adjusted for the mean age 63.4 years and mean education level 9.7 years) for midsize/large (70-200 CGG) and small (55-69 CGG) premutation alleles was 33.3% (relative risk (RR) 6.5; p = 0.01) and 5.9% (RR 1.15; p = 0.9) respectively. Penetrance in the control group was 5.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Male carriers of midsize to large premutation alleles had a sixfold increased risk of developing cognitive decline and the risk increases with allele size. In addition, it was observed that cognitive impairment may precede motor symptoms. These data provide guidance for genetic counselling although larger samples are required to refine these estimates.