Predicting Argentine ant invasion across spatial scales via ecological niche models

La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es troba entre les espècies més invasores: originària d'Amèrica del Sud, actualment ha envaït nombroses àrees arreu del món. Aquesta tesi doctoral intenta fer una primera anàlisi integrada i multiescalar de la distribució de la formiga argentina mitjançant l'ús de models de nínxol ecològic. D'acord amb els resultats obtinguts, es preveu que la formiga argentina assoleixi una distribució més àmplia que l'actual. Les prediccions obtingudes a partir dels models concorden amb la distribució actualment coneguda i, a més, indiquen àrees a prop de la costa i dels rius principals com a altament favorables per a l'espècie. Aquests resultats corroboren la idea que la formiga argentina no es troba actualment en equilibri amb el medi. D'altra banda, amb el canvi climàtic, s'espera que la distribució de la formiga argentina s'estengui cap a latituds més elevades en ambdós hemisferis, i sofreixi una retracció en els tròpics a escales globals.

O movimento dos capitães, o MFA e o 25 de Abril: do marcelismo à queda do Estado Novo

O 25 de Abril de 1974 foi um dos mais importantes acontecimentos que ocorreram em Portugal durante o século XX. Como tal, entende-se útil efectuar uma observação às circunstâncias em que o país vivia na parte final do regime durante o qual o Governo foi chefiado por Marcello Caetano. Entre 1968 e 1974, verificaram-se significativas mudanças na conjuntura internacional, tanto no que concerne à economia, como a nível social e militar. Também a nível interno, a instituição militar começou a ser agitada pelos efeitos da saturação que a guerra estava a causar e que levou o Governo a tomar medidas políticas que tinham por objectivo a eternização do conflito. Nesse contexto, um grupo de oficiais, essencialmente capitães, começou a reunirse clandestinamente para encontrar formas de ultrapassar o impasse político em que o país se encontrava. A partir do momento em que esse grupo considerou que a solução do problema era o derrube do regime, iniciou uma dinâmica de planeamento que culminou com um golpe de estado militar. Este projecto faz uma observação desse período, desde que Caetano chegou ao poder até que foi derrubado, com especial enfoque na evolução da contestação dos capitães que desencadearam o golpe.

Loudness judgments in normal and hearing impaired listeners

This paper studies the use of a rank order scale to achieve a goal of normal loudness perception for a hearing-impaired person. The study compares loudness judgments in normal and hearing-impaired listeners.

Patch Scale Nest-Site Selection by Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus)

The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a threatened alcid that nests almost exclusively in old-growth forests along the Pacific coast of North America. Nesting habitat has significant economic importance. Murrelet nests are extremely difficult and costly to find, which adds uncertainty to management and conservation planning. Models based on air photo interpretation of forest cover maps or assessments by low-level helicopter flights are currently used to rank presumed Marbled Murrelet nesting habitat quality in British Columbia. These rankings are assumed to correlate with nest usage and murrelet breeding productivity. Our goal was to find the models that best predict Marbled Murrelet nesting habitat in the ground-accessible portion of the two regions studied. We generated Resource Selection Functions (RSF) using logistic regression models of ground-based forest stand variables gathered at plots around 64 nests, located using radio-telemetry, versus 82 random habitat plots. The RSF scores are proportional to the probability of nests occurring in a forest patch. The best models differed somewhat between the two regions, but include both ground variables at the patch scale (0.2-2.0 ha), such as platform tree density, height and trunk diameter of canopy trees and canopy complexity, and landscape scale variables such as elevation, aspect, and slope. Collecting ground-based habitat selection data would not be cost-effective for widespread use in forestry management; air photo interpretation and low-level aerial surveys are much more efficient methods for ranking habitat suitability on a landscape scale. This study provides one method for ground-truthing the remote methods, an essential step made possible using the numerical RSF scores generated herein.

Isotopes and individuals: diet and mobility among the medieval Bishops of Whithorn

Stable isotopes get personal in this analysis of burials at a medieval cathedral. Compared with the local meat-eating rank and file, those people identified as bishops consumed significantly more fish and were incomers from the east. These results, while not so surprising historically, lend much increased confidence that isotope analysis can successfully read the status and mobility of individuals in a cemetery.

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discriminative pattern mining in software fault detection

We present a method to enhance fault localization for software systems based on a frequent pattern mining algorithm. Our method is based on a large set of test cases for a given set of programs in which faults can be detected. The test executions are recorded as function call trees. Based on test oracles the tests can be classified into successful and failing tests. A frequent pattern mining algorithm is used to identify frequent subtrees in successful and failing test executions. This information is used to rank functions according to their likelihood of containing a fault. The ranking suggests an order in which to examine the functions during fault analysis. We validate our approach experimentally using a subset of Siemens benchmark programs.

Using a runway paradigm to assess the relative strength of rats' motivations for enrichment objects

Laboratory animals should be provided with enrichment objects in their cages; however, it is first necessary to test whether the proposed enrichment objects provide benefits that increase the animals’ welfare. The two main paradigms currently used to assess proposed enrichment objects are the choice test, which is limited to determining relative frequency of choice, and consumer demand studies, which can indicate the strength of a preference but are complex to design. Here, we propose a third methodology: a runway paradigm, which can be used to assess the strength of an animal’s motivation for enrichment objects, is simpler to use than consumer demand studies, and is faster to complete than typical choice tests. Time spent with objects in a standard choice test was used to rank several enrichment objects in order to compare with the ranking found in our runway paradigm. The rats ran significantly more times, ran faster, and interacted longer with objects with which they had previously spent the most time. It was concluded that this simple methodology is suitable for measuring rats’ motivation to reach enrichment objects. This can be used to assess the preference for different types of enrichment objects or to measure reward system processes.

Investigating age related changes in taste and affects on sensory perceptions of oral nutritional supplements

Background: sip feeds are oral nutritional supplements (ONSs) that are commonly prescribed to malnourished patients to improve their nutritional and clinical status. However, ONSs are poorly consumed and frequently wasted, with sweetness being identified as one of the factors leading to patients’ dislike of ONSs. Objectives: to investigate if age affects sweetness thresholds and if this impacts upon perceived sweetness intensity, hedonic (sweetness and overall) and ranked preference of ONS products. Design: prospective, observational. Subjects: thirty-six young adults (18–33 years) and 48 healthy older adults (63–85 years). Setting: Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences and the Clinical Health Sciences at the University of Reading. Methods: detection and recognition threshold levels, basic taste identification and ‘just about right’ level of sweetness were examined. Three ONSs (chocolate, vanilla, strawberry) and sucrose solutions were evaluated for hedonic sweetness, overall hedonic liking, sweetness intensity and rank preference. Results: significant differences were found in both sweetness detection and recognition thresholds (P = 0.0001) between young and older adults, with older adults more likely to incorrectly identify the taste (P = 0.0001). Despite the deterioration in sweetness sensitivity among the older adults, there were no significant differences found in sweetness intensity perceived for the ONS products presented (P > 0.05) when compared with the young adults. However, across both groups sweetness intensity was found to be correlated with overall product dislike across all flavour variants tested (R = 0.398, P = 0.0001). Conclusions: sweetness appears to be one of many factors contributing to the dislike of ONSs. Manufacturers are encouraged to reconsider the formulations of these products so that beneficial effects of ONSs can be delivered in a more palatable and acceptable form and wastage reduced.

Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers form Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probabilty of pest detction. However, by better targetting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

Estimating technical efficiency of Australian dairy farms using alternative frontier methodologies

Technical efficiency is estimated and examined for a cross-section of Australian dairy farms using various frontier methodologies; Bayesian and Classical stochastic frontiers, and Data Envelopment Analysis. The results indicate technical inefficiency is present in the sample data. Also identified are statistical differences between the point estimates of technical efficiency generated by the various methodologies. However, the rank of farm level technical efficiency is statistically invariant to the estimation technique employed. Finally, when confidence/credible intervals of technical efficiency are compared significant overlap is found for many of the farms' intervals for all frontier methods employed. The results indicate that the choice of estimation methodology may matter, but the explanatory power of all frontier methods is significantly weaker when interval estimate of technical efficiency is examined.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking consensus model quality assessment for protein fold recognition

Background: Selecting the highest quality 3D model of a protein structure from a number of alternatives remains an important challenge in the field of structural bioinformatics. Many Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) have been developed which adopt various strategies in order to tackle this problem, ranging from the so called "true" MQAPs capable of producing a single energy score based on a single model, to methods which rely on structural comparisons of multiple models or additional information from meta-servers. However, it is clear that no current method can separate the highest accuracy models from the lowest consistently. In this paper, a number of the top performing MQAP methods are benchmarked in the context of the potential value that they add to protein fold recognition. Two novel methods are also described: ModSSEA, which based on the alignment of predicted secondary structure elements and ModFOLD which combines several true MQAP methods using an artificial neural network. Results: The ModSSEA method is found to be an effective model quality assessment program for ranking multiple models from many servers, however further accuracy can be gained by using the consensus approach of ModFOLD. The ModFOLD method is shown to significantly outperform the true MQAPs tested and is competitive with methods which make use of clustering or additional information from multiple servers. Several of the true MQAPs are also shown to add value to most individual fold recognition servers by improving model selection, when applied as a post filter in order to re-rank models. Conclusion: MQAPs should be benchmarked appropriately for the practical context in which they are intended to be used. Clustering based methods are the top performing MQAPs where many models are available from many servers; however, they often do not add value to individual fold recognition servers when limited models are available. Conversely, the true MQAP methods tested can often be used as effective post filters for re-ranking few models from individual fold recognition servers and further improvements can be achieved using a consensus of these methods.

Diverse signalling by different chemokines through the chemokine receptor CCR5

We have investigated the signalling properties of the chemokine receptor, CCR5, using several assays for agonism: stimulation of changes in intracellular Ca2+ or CCR5 internalisation in CHO cells expressing CCR5 or stimulation of [S-35]GTP gamma S binding in membranes of CHO cells expressing CCR5. Four isoforms of the chemokine CCL3 with different amino termini (CCL3, CCL3(2-70), CCL3(5-70), CCL3L1) were tested in these assays in order to probe structure/activity relationships. Each isoform exhibited agonism. The pattern of agonism (potency, maximal effect) was different in the three assays, although the rank order was the same with CCL3L1 being the most potent and efficacious. The data show that the amino terminus of the chemokine is important for signalling. A proline at position 2 (CCL3L1) provides for high potency and efficacy but the isoform with a serine at position 2 (CCL3(2-70)) is as efficacious in some assays showing that the proline is not the only determinant of high efficacy. We also increased the sensitivity of CCR5 signalling by treating cells with sodium butyrate, thus increasing the receptor/G protein ratio. This allowed the detection of a change in intracellular Ca2+ after treatment with CCL7 and Met-RANTES showing that these ligands possess measurable but low efficacy. This study therefore shows that sodium butyrate treatment increases the sensitivity of signalling assays and enables the detection of efficacy in ligands previously considered as antagonists. The use of different assay systems, therefore, provides different estimates of efficacy for some ligands at this receptor. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.