The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

The inducing NO-vasodilation by chemical reduction of coordinated nitrite ion in cis-[Ru(NO(2))L(bpy)(2)](+) complex

The synthesis of [Ru(NO(2)) L(bpy)(2)](+) (bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine and L = pyridine (py) and pyrazine (pz)) can be accomplished by addition of [Ru(NO) L(bpy) 2](PF(6))(3) to aqueous solutions of physiological pH. The electrochemical processes of [Ru(NO2) L(bpy) 2]+ in aqueous solution were studied by cyclic voltammetry and differential pulse voltammetry. The anodic scan shows a peak around 1.00 V vs. Ag/AgCl attributed to the oxidation process centered on the metal ion. However, in the cathodic scan a second peak around-0.60 V vs. Ag/AgCl was observed and attributed to the reduction process centered on the nitrite ligand. The controlled reduction potential electrolysis at-0.80 V vs. Ag/AgCl shows NO release characteristics as judged by NO measurement with a NO-sensor. This assumption was confirmed by ESI/MS(+) and spectroelectrochemical experiment where cis-[Ru(bpy)(2)L(H(2)O)](2+) was obtained as a product of the reduction of cis-[Ru(II)(NO(2)) L(bpy)(2)](+). The vasorelaxation observed in denuded aortic rings pre-contracted with 0.1 mu mol L(-1) phenylephrine responded with relaxation in the presence of cis-[RuII(NO2) L(bpy) 2]+. The potential of rat aorta cells to metabolize cis-[RuII(NO(2)) L(bpy)(2)](+) was also followed by confocal analysis. The obtained results suggest that NO release happens by reduction of cis-[RuII(NO(2)) L(bpy)(2)](+) inside the cell. The maximum vasorelaxation was achieved with 1 x 10(-5) mol L(-1) of cis-[RuII(NO(2)) L(bpy)(2)](+) complex.

Photophysical properties of a photocytotoxic fluorinated chlorin conjugated to four beta-cyclodextrins

A meso-tetrakis(pentafluorophenyl)-chlorin with the reduced pyrrole ring linked to an isoxazolidine ring (FC) has been conjugated to four beta-cyclodextrins (CDFC). The CDFC exhibits excellent water solubility and is a potent photosensitizer towards proliferating NCTC 2544 human keratinocytes. The study by conventional steady state absorption and fluorescence spectroscopies and by time-resolved femto- and nanosecond laser flash spectroscopies suggests that in ethanol and pH 7 buffer the beta-cyclodextrins embed the highly hydrophobic tetrakis(pentafluorophenyl)-chlorin macrocycle and strongly interact with the chlorin rings in the singlet and triplet manifolds. In these solvents, femtosecond spectroscopy suggests that the conjugate undergoes a rapid relaxation in the upper excited singlet states induced by photochemical and/or conformation change(s) at a rate of about 5 ps(-1) to fluorescent states whose lifetime is similar to 8 ns. This interaction is destroyed upon addition of Triton X100 to buffer. Both FC and CDFC strongly fluoresce (Phi(F) similar to 0.5) in micelles. Similar behavior is observed at the triplet level. In ethanol and water, the initial transient triplet state absorbance decays within 1-3 mu s yielding a longer lived triplet with spectral properties indistinguishable from that of original difference absorbance spectra. The determination of the molar absorbance in the 440-460 nm region (similar to 35 000 M(-1) cm(-1)) leads to an estimate of similar to 0.2 for the triplet formation quantum yield of FC in toluene and of FC and CDFC in Triton X100 micelles. Quenching of the CDFC triplets by dioxygen in buffer produces (1)O(2) in a good yield consistent with the effective photocytotoxicity of the chlorin-cyclodextrins conjugate towards cultured NCTC 2544 human keratinocytes. By contrast, FC which aggregates in buffer produces little if any (1)O(2).

Data collapse, scaling functions, and analytical solutions of generalized growth models

We consider a nontrivial one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacities. Time-dependent intrinsic and extrinsic growth rates are considered in these models. Through the model per capita growth rate we obtain a heuristic general procedure to generate scaling functions to collapse data into a simple linear behavior even if an extrinsic growth rate is included. With this data collapse, all the models studied become independent from the parameters and initial condition. Analytical solutions are found when time-dependent coefficients are considered. These solutions allow us to perceive nontrivial transitions between species extinction and survival and to calculate the transition's critical exponents. Considering an extrinsic growth rate as a cancer treatment, we show that the relevant quantity depends not only on the intensity of the treatment, but also on when the cancerous cell growth is maximum.

Changes in cardiac heparan sulfate proteoglycan expression and streptozotocin-induced diastolic dysfunction in rats

Background: Changes in the proteoglycans glypican and syndecan-4 have been reported in several pathological conditions, but little is known about their expression in the heart during diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate in vivo heart function changes and alterations in mRNA expression and protein levels of glypican-1 and syndecan-4 in cardiac and skeletal muscles during streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetes. Methods: Diabetes was induced in male Wistar rats by STZ administration. The rats were assigned to one of the following groups: control (sham injection), after 24 hours, 10 days, or 30 days of STZ administration. Echocardiography was performed in the control and STZ 10-day groups. Western and Northern blots were used to quantify protein and mRNA levels in all groups. Immunohistochemistry was performed in the control and 30-day groups to correlate the observed mRNA changes to the protein expression. Results: In vivo cardiac functional analysis performed using echocardiography in the 10-day group showed diastolic dysfunction with alterations in the peak velocity of early (E) diastolic filling and isovolumic relaxation time (IVRT) indices. These functional alterations observed in the STZ 10-day group correlated with the concomitant increase in syndecan-4 and glypican-1 protein expression. Cardiac glypican-1 mRNA and skeletal syndecan-4 mRNA and protein levels increased in the STZ 30-day group. On the other hand, the amount of glypican in skeletal muscle was lower than that in the control group. The same results were obtained from immunohistochemistry analysis. Conclusion: Our data suggest that membrane proteoglycans participate in the sequence of events triggered by diabetes and inflicted on cardiac and skeletal muscles.

Effect of the effluent released from the canine internal mammary artery after intraluminal and extraluminal perfusion of acetylcholine and adenosine diphosphate

Segments of the canine internal mammary artery (35 mm in length) were suspended in vitro in an organ chamber containing physiological salt solution (95% O(2)/5% CO(2), pH = 7.4, 37 degrees C). Segments were individually cannulated and perfused at 5 ml/minute using a roller pump. Vasorelaxant activity of the effluent from the perfused internal mammary arteries was bioassayed by measuring the decrease in tension induced by the effluent of the coronary artery endothelium-free ring which had been contracted with prostaglandin F(2 alpha) (2 x 10(-6) M). Intraluminal perfusion of adenosine diphosphate (10(-5) M) induced significant increase in relaxant activity in the effluent from the perfused blood vessel. However, when adenosine diphosphate (10(-5) M) was added extraluminally to the internal mammary artery, no change in relaxant activity in the effluent was noted. In contrast, acetylcholine produced significant increase in the relaxant activity on the effluent of the perfused internal mammary artery with both intraluminal and extraluminal perfusion. The intraluminal and extraluminal release of endothelium-derived relaxing factor (EDRF) by acetylcholine (10(-5) M) can be inhibited by site-specific administration of atropine (10(-5) M). These experiments indicate that certain agonists can induce the release of EDRF only by binding to intravascular receptors while other agonists can induce endothelium-dependent vasodilatation by acting on neural side receptors.

Hidden vorticity in binary Bose-Einstein condensates

We consider a binary Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) described by a system of two-dimensional (2D) Gross-Pitaevskii equations with the harmonic-oscillator trapping potential. The intraspecies interactions are attractive, while the interaction between the species may have either sign. The same model applies to the copropagation of bimodal beams in photonic-crystal fibers. We consider a family of trapped hidden-vorticity (HV) modes in the form of bound states of two components with opposite vorticities S(1,2) = +/- 1, the total angular momentum being zero. A challenging problem is the stability of the HV modes. By means of a linear-stability analysis and direct simulations, stability domains are identified in a relevant parameter plane. In direct simulations, stable HV modes feature robustness against large perturbations, while unstable ones split into fragments whose number is identical to the azimuthal index of the fastest growing perturbation eigenmode. Conditions allowing for the creation of the HV modes in the experiment are discussed too. For comparison, a similar but simpler problem is studied in an analytical form, viz., the modulational instability of an HV state in a one-dimensional (1D) system with periodic boundary conditions (this system models a counterflow in a binary BEC mixture loaded into a toroidal trap or a bimodal optical beam coupled into a cylindrical shell). We demonstrate that the stabilization of the 1D HV modes is impossible, which stresses the significance of the stabilization of the HV modes in the 2D setting.

Dispersive analysis of KL mu 3 and KLe3 scalar and vector form factors using KTeV data

Using the published KTeV samples of K(L) -> pi(+/-)e(-/+)nu and K(L) -> pi(+/-)mu(-/+)nu decays, we perform a reanalysis of the scalar and vector form factors based on the dispersive parametrization. We obtain phase-space integrals I(K)(e) = 0.15446 +/- 0.00025 and I(K)(mu) = 0.10219 +/- 0.00025. For the scalar form factor parametrization, the only free parameter is the normalized form factor value at the Callan-Treiman point (C); our best-fit results in InC = 0.1915 +/- 0.0122. We also study the sensitivity of C to different parametrizations of the vector form factor. The results for the phase-space integrals and C are then used to make tests of the standard model. Finally, we compare our results with lattice QCD calculations of F(K)/F(pi) and f(+)(0).

Growth and capping of InAs/GaAs quantum dots investigated by x-ray Bragg-surface diffraction

An x-ray diffraction method, based on the excitation of a surface diffracted wave, is described to investigate the capping process of InAs/GaAs (001) quantum dots (QDs). It is sensitive to the tiny misorientation of (111) planes at the surface of the buffer layer on samples with exposed QDs. After capping, the misorientation occurs in the cap-layer lattice faceting the QDs and its magnitude can be as large as 10 degrees depending on the QDs growth rates, probably due to changes in the size and shape of the QDs. A slow strain release process taking place at room temperature has also been observed by monitoring the misorientation angle of the (111) planes.

Formation of vortices in a dense Bose-Einstein condensate

A relaxation method is employed to study a rotating dense Bose-Einstein condensate beyond the Thomas-Fermi approximation. We use a slave-boson model to describe the strongly interacting condensate and derive a generalized nonlinear Schrodinger equation with a kinetic term for the rotating condensate. In comparison with previous calculations, based on the Thomas-Fermi approximation, significant improvements are found in regions where the condensate in a trap potential is not smooth. The critical angular velocity of the vortex formation is higher than in the Thomas-Fermi prediction.

Localized modes of binary mixtures of Bose-Einstein condensates in nonlinear optical lattices

The properties of the localized states of a two-component Bose-Einstein condensate confined in a nonlinear periodic potential (nonlinear optical lattice) are investigated. We discuss the existence of different types of solitons and study their stability by means of analytical and numerical approaches. The symmetry properties of the localized states with respect to nonlinear optical lattices are also investigated. We show that nonlinear optical lattices allow the existence of bright soliton modes with equal symmetry in both components and bright localized modes of mixed symmetry type, as well as dark-bright bound states and bright modes on periodic backgrounds. In spite of the quasi-one-dimensional nature of the problem, the fundamental symmetric localized modes undergo a delocalizing transition when the strength of the nonlinear optical lattice is varied. This transition is associated with the existence of an unstable solution, which exhibits a shrinking (decaying) behavior for slightly overcritical (undercritical) variations in the number of atoms.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.

Diffusion anomaly and dynamic transitions in the Bell-Lavis water model

In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of the minimal Bell-Lavis (BL) water model and their relation to the thermodynamic anomalies. The BL model is defined on a triangular lattice in which water molecules are represented by particles with three symmetric bonding arms interacting through van der Waals and hydrogen bonds. We have studied the model diffusivity in different regions of the phase diagram through Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the model displays a region of anomalous diffusion which lies inside the region of anomalous density, englobed by the line of temperatures of maximum density. Further, we have found that the diffusivity undergoes a dynamic transition which may be classified as fragile-to-strong transition at the critical line only at low pressures. At higher densities, no dynamic transition is seen on crossing the critical line. Thus evidence from this study is that relation of dynamic transitions to criticality may be discarded. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3479001]