A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Regulatory compliance as a means to achieve environmental sustainability at some large coastal developments in Queensland

The growing public concern about the complexity, cost and uncertain efficacy of the statuary environmental impact assessment process applying to large-scale projects in Queensland is reviewed. This is based on field data gathered over the past six years sat large-scale marina developments that access major environmental reserves along the coast. An ecological design proposal to broaden the process consisted with both government aspirations and regional ecological parameters - termed Regional Landscape Strategies - would allow the existing Environmental Impact Asessment to be modified alone potentially more practicable and effective lines.

Understanding and analyzing a large collection of archived swimming videos

In elite sports, nearly all performances are captured on video. Despite the massive amounts of video that has been captured in this domain over the last 10-15 years, most of it remains in an 'unstructured' or 'raw' form, meaning it can only be viewed or manually annotated/tagged with higher-level event labels which is time consuming and subjective. As such, depending on the detail or depth of annotation, the value of the collected repositories of archived data is minimal as it does not lend itself to large-scale analysis and retrieval. One such example is swimming, where each race of a swimmer is captured on a camcorder and in-addition to the split-times (i.e., the time it takes for each lap), stroke rate and stroke-lengths are manually annotated. In this paper, we propose a vision-based system which effectively 'digitizes' a large collection of archived swimming races by estimating the location of the swimmer in each frame, as well as detecting the stroke rate. As the videos are captured from moving hand-held cameras which are located at different positions and angles, we show our hierarchical-based approach to tracking the swimmer and their different parts is robust to these issues and allows us to accurately estimate the swimmer location and stroke rates.

Efficiently capturing large, complex cultural heritage sites with a handheld mobile 3D laser mapping system

Accurate three-dimensional representations of cultural heritage sites are highly valuable for scientific study, conservation, and educational purposes. In addition to their use for archival purposes, 3D models enable efficient and precise measurement of relevant natural and architectural features. Many cultural heritage sites are large and complex, consisting of multiple structures spatially distributed over tens of thousands of square metres. The process of effectively digitising such geometrically complex locations requires measurements to be acquired from a variety of viewpoints. While several technologies exist for capturing the 3D structure of objects and environments, none are ideally suited to complex, large-scale sites, mainly due to their limited coverage or acquisition efficiency. We explore the use of a recently developed handheld mobile mapping system called Zebedee in cultural heritage applications. The Zebedee system is capable of efficiently mapping an environment in three dimensions by continually acquiring data as an operator holding the device traverses through the site. The system was deployed at the former Peel Island Lazaret, a culturally significant site in Queensland, Australia, consisting of dozens of buildings of various sizes spread across an area of approximately 400 × 250 m. With the Zebedee system, the site was scanned in half a day, and a detailed 3D point cloud model (with over 520 million points) was generated from the 3.6 hours of acquired data in 2.6 hours. We present results demonstrating that Zebedee was able to accurately capture both site context and building detail comparable in accuracy to manual measurement techniques, and at a greatly increased level of efficiency and scope. The scan allowed us to record derelict buildings that previously could not be measured because of the scale and complexity of the site. The resulting 3D model captures both interior and exterior features of buildings, including structure, materials, and the contents of rooms.

The Catlin Seaview Survey – kilometre-scale seascape assessment, and monitoring of coral reef ecosystems

1.Marine ecosystems provide critically important goods and services to society, and hence their accelerated degradation underpins an urgent need to take rapid, ambitious and informed decisions regarding their conservation and management. 2.The capacity, however, to generate the detailed field data required to inform conservation planning at appropriate scales is limited by time and resource consuming methods for collecting and analysing field data at the large scales required. 3.The ‘Catlin Seaview Survey’, described here, introduces a novel framework for large-scale monitoring of coral reefs using high-definition underwater imagery collected using customized underwater vehicles in combination with computer vision and machine learning. This enables quantitative and geo-referenced outputs of coral reef features such as habitat types, benthic composition, and structural complexity (rugosity) to be generated across multiple kilometre-scale transects with a spatial resolution ranging from 2 to 6 m2. 4.The novel application of technology described here has enormous potential to contribute to our understanding of coral reefs and associated impacts by underpinning management decisions with kilometre-scale measurements of reef health. 5.Imagery datasets from an initial survey of 500 km of seascape are freely available through an online tool called the Catlin Global Reef Record. Outputs from the image analysis using the technologies described here will be updated on the online repository as work progresses on each dataset. 6.Case studies illustrate the utility of outputs as well as their potential to link to information from remote sensing. The potential implications of the innovative technologies on marine resource management and conservation are also discussed, along with the accuracy and efficiency of the methodologies deployed.

Histogram matching and global initialization for laser-only SLAM in large unstructured environments

This paper presents an enhanced algorithm for matching laser scan maps using histogram correlations. The histogram representation effectively summarizes a map's salient features such that pairs of maps can be matched efficiently without any prior guess as to their alignment. The histogram matching algorithm has been enhanced in order to work well in outdoor unstructured environments by using entropy metrics, weighted histograms and proper thresholding of quality metrics. Thus our large-scale scan-matching SLAM implementation has a vastly improved ability to close large loops in real-time even when odometry is not available. Our experimental results have demonstrated a successful mapping of the largest area ever mapped to date using only a single laser scanner. We also demonstrate our ability to solve the lost robot problem by localizing a robot to a previously built map without any prior initialization.

Parallel streaming signature EM-tree: A clustering algorithm for web scale applications

The proliferation of the web presents an unsolved problem of automatically analyzing billions of pages of natural language. We introduce a scalable algorithm that clusters hundreds of millions of web pages into hundreds of thousands of clusters. It does this on a single mid-range machine using efficient algorithms and compressed document representations. It is applied to two web-scale crawls covering tens of terabytes. ClueWeb09 and ClueWeb12 contain 500 and 733 million web pages and were clustered into 500,000 to 700,000 clusters. To the best of our knowledge, such fine grained clustering has not been previously demonstrated. Previous approaches clustered a sample that limits the maximum number of discoverable clusters. The proposed EM-tree algorithm uses the entire collection in clustering and produces several orders of magnitude more clusters than the existing algorithms. Fine grained clustering is necessary for meaningful clustering in massive collections where the number of distinct topics grows linearly with collection size. These fine-grained clusters show an improved cluster quality when assessed with two novel evaluations using ad hoc search relevance judgments and spam classifications for external validation. These evaluations solve the problem of assessing the quality of clusters where categorical labeling is unavailable and unfeasible.

Similarity-based birdcall retrieval from environmental audio

Automated digital recordings are useful for large-scale temporal and spatial environmental monitoring. An important research effort has been the automated classification of calling bird species. In this paper we examine a related task, retrieval of birdcalls from a database of audio recordings, similar to a user supplied query call. Such a retrieval task can sometimes be more useful than an automated classifier. We compare three approaches to similarity-based birdcall retrieval using spectral ridge features and two kinds of gradient features, structure tensor and the histogram of oriented gradients. The retrieval accuracy of our spectral ridge method is 94% compared to 82% for the structure tensor method and 90% for the histogram of gradients method. Additionally, this approach potentially offers a more compact representation and is more computationally efficient.

Submarine record of volcanic island construction and collapse in the Lesser Antilles arc: First scientific drilling of submarine volcanic island landslides by IODP Expedition 340

IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of preexisting low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or microfaulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits composed of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution data set to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes.

Speed-based diagnostics of aerodynamic and mass imbalance in large wind turbines

Any kind of imbalance in the operation of a wind turbine has adverse effect on the downstream torsional components as well as tower structure. It is crucial to detect imbalance at its very inception. The identification of the type of imbalance is also required so that appropriate measures of fault accommodation can be performed in the control system. In particular, it is important to distinguish between mass and aerodynamic imbalance. While the former is gradually caused by a structural anomaly (e.g. ice deposition, moisture accumulation inside blade), the latter is generally associated to a fault in the pitch control system. This paper proposes a technique for the detection and identification of imbalance fault in large scale wind turbines. Unlike most other existing method it requires only the rotor speed signal which is readily available in existing turbines. Signature frequencies have been proposed in this work to identify imbalance type based on their physical phenomenology. The performance of this technique has been evaluated by simulations using an existing benchmark model. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been confirmed by the simulation results.

Tertiary Treatment of Ayr Municipal Wastewater using Bioremediation: A Pilot-Scale Study. A Report Prepared for the Burdekin Shire Council and the Burdekin Rangeland Reef Initiative

This joint DPI/Burdekin Shire Council project assessed the efficacy of a pilot-scale biological remediation system to recover Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorous (P) nutrients from secondary treated municipal wastewater at the Ayr Sewage Treatment Plant. Additionally, this study considered potential commercial uses for by-products from the treatment system. Knowledge gained from this study can provide directions for implementing a larger-scale final effluent treatment protocol on site at the Ayr plant. Trials were conducted over 10 months and assessed nutrient removal from duckweed-based treatments and an algae/fish treatment – both as sequential and as stand-alone treatment systems. A 42.3% reduction in Total N was found through the sequential treatment system (duckweed followed by algae/fish treatment) after 6.6 days Effluent Retention Time (E.R.T.). However, duckweed treatment was responsible for the majority of this nutrient recovery (7.8 times more effective than algae/fish treatment). Likewise, Total P reduction (15.75% reduction after 6.6 days E.R.T.) was twice as great in the duckweed treatment. A phytoplankton bloom, which developed in the algae/fish tanks, reduced nutrient recovery in this treatment. A second trial tested whether the addition of fish enhanced duckweed treatment by evaluating systems with and without fish. After four weeks operation, low DO under the duckweed blanket caused fish mortalities. Decomposition of these fish led to an additional organic load and this was reflected in a breakdown of nitrogen species that showed an increase in organic nitrogen. However, the Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN: ammonia, nitrite and nitrate) removal was similar between treatments with and without fish (57% and 59% DIN removal from incoming, respectively). Overall, three effluent residence times were evaluated using duckweed-based treatments; i.e. 3.5 days, 5.5 days and 10.4 days. Total N removal was 37.5%, 55.7% and 70.3%, respectively. The 10.4-day E.R.T. trial, however, was evaluated by sequential nutrient removal through the duckweed-minus-fish treatment followed by the duckweed-plus-fish treatment. Therefore, the 70.3% Total N removal was lower than could have been achieved at this retention time due to the abovementioned fish mortalities. Phosphorous removal from duckweed treatments was greatest after 10.4-days E.R.T. (13.6%). Plant uptake was considered the most important mechanism for this P removal since there was no clay substrate in the plastic tanks that could have contributed to P absorption as part of the natural phosphorous cycle. Duckweed inhibited phytoplankton production (therefore reducing T.S.S) and maintained pH close to neutral. DO beneath the duckweed blanket fell to below 1ppm; however, this did not limit plant production. If fish are to be used as part of the duckweed treatment, air-uplifts can be installed that maintain DO levels without disturbing surface waters. Duckweed grown in the treatments doubled its biomass on average every 5.7 days. On a per-surface area basis, 1.23kg/m2 was harvested weekly. Moisture content of duckweed was 92%, equating to a total dry weight harvest of 0.098kg/m2/week. Nutrient analysis of dried duckweed gave an N content of 6.67% and a P content of 1.27%. According to semi-quantitative analyses, harvested duckweed contained no residual elements from the effluent stream that were greater than ANZECC toxicant guidelines proposed for aquaculture. In addition, jade perch, a local aquaculture species, actively consumed and gained weight on harvested duckweed, suggesting potential for large-scale fish production using by-products from the effluent treatment process. This suggests that a duckweed-based system may be one viable option for tertiary treatment of Ayr municipal wastewater. The tertiary detention lagoon proposed by the Burdekin Shire Council, consisting of six bays approximately 290 x 35 metres (x 1.5 metres deep), would be suitable for duckweed culture with minor modification to facilitate the efficient distribution of duckweed plants across the entire available growing surface (such as floating containment grids). The effluent residence time resulting from this proposed configuration (~30 days) should be adequate to recover most effluent nutrients (certainly N) based on the current trial. Duckweed harvest techniques on this scale, however, need to be further investigated. Based on duckweed production in the current trial (1.23kg/m2/week), a weekly harvest of approximately 75 000kg (wet weight) could be expected from the proposed lagoon configuration under full duckweed production. A benefit of the proposed multi-bay lagoon is that full lagoon production of duckweed may not be needed to restore effluent to a desirable standard under the present nutrient load, and duckweed treatment may be restricted to certain bays. Restored effluent could be released without risk of contaminating the receiving waterway with duckweed by evacuating water through an internal standpipe located mid-way in the water column.

Landscape-scale soil erosion modelling and ecological restoration for a mountainous watershed in Sichuan, China

Sichuanissa Tiibetin ylängön metsäkato on pysähtynyt mutta eroosio-ongelmat jatkuvat Viikin tropiikki-instituutin tutkija Ping ZHOU kartoitti trooppisen metsänhoidon alaan kuuluvassa väitöskirjatyössään maaperän eroosioalttiutta ja sen riippuvuutta metsäkasvillisuudesta Jangtsen tärkeää sivuhaaraa Min-jokea ympäröivällä n. 7400 neliökilometrin suuruisella valuma-alueella Sichuanin Aba-piirikunnassa. Aineistonaan hän käytti muun muassa satelliittikartoitustietoja ja mittaustuloksia yli 600 maastokoealalta. Tutkimuksen nimi suomeksi on "Maaperän eroosion mallinnus ja vuoristoisen valuma-alueen ekologinen ennallistaminen Sichuanissa Kiinassa". Aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella oli tiedossa että metsien häviäminen tällä alueella pysähtyi jo 1980-luvun alussa. Sen jälkeen on metsien pinta-ala hitaasti kasvanut etupäässä sen vuoksi, että teollinen puunhakkuu luonnonmetsissä kiellettiin kokonaan v. 1998 ja 25 astetta jyrkemmillä rinteillä myös maatalouden harjoittaminen on saatu lopetetuksi viljelijöille tarjottujen taloudellisten houkuttimien avulla. Täten myös pelto- ja laidunmaata on voitu ennallistaa metsäksi. Ping Zhou pystyi jakamaan 5700 metrin korkeuteen saakka kohoavan vuoristoalueen eroosioalttiudeltaan erilaisiin vyöhykkeisiin rinteen kaltevuuden, sademäärän, kasvipeitteen ja maalajin perusteella. Noin 15 prosentilla tutkitun valuma-alueen pinta-alasta, lähinnä Min-joen pääuomaa ympäröivillä jyrkillä rinteillä, eroosioriski oli suuri tai erittäin suuri. Eri tyyppisellä kasvillisuudella oli hyvin erilainen vaikutus eroosioalttiuteen, ja myös alueen sijainti vuoriston eri korkeuksilla vaikutti eroosioon. Säästyneet lähes luonnontilaiset havumetsät, joita on etupäässä vuoriston ylimmissä osissa 2600-4000 metrin korkeudella, edistävät tehokkaasti metsän luontaista uudistumista ja levittäytymistä vaurioituneille alueille. Säilyneiden metsien puulajikoostumus antoi tutkimuksessa mahdollisuuden ennustaa metsien tulevaa kehitystä koko tutkitulla valuma-alueella sen eri korkeusvyöhykkeissä ja eri maaperätyypeillä. Ennallistamisen kannalta ongelmallisimpia olivat alueet joilta metsäpeite oli lähinnä puiden teollisen hakkuun vuoksi kokonaan hävinnyt ja joilla maaperä yleisesti oli eroosion pahoin kuluttama. Näillä alueilla ei ole tehty juuri mitään uudistamis- tai ennallistamistoimenpiteitä. Niillä metsien ennallistaminen vaatii myös puiden tai pensaiden istuttamista. Tähän sopivia ovat erityisesti ilmakehän typpeä sitovat lajit, joista alueella kasvaa luontaisena mm. sama tyrnilaji joka esiintyy myös Suomessa. Työssä tutkittiin yli kahdeksankymmenen paikallisen luontaisen puulajin (joista peräti noin kolmannes on havupuulajeja) ekologisia ominaisuuksia ja soveltuvuutta metsien ennallistamiseen. Avainasemassa työn onnistumisen kannalta ovat nyt paikalliset asukkaat, joiden maankäytön muutokset ovat jo selvästi edistänet luonnonmetsän ennalleen palautumista. Suomen Akatemia rahoitti vuosina 2004-2006 VITRI:n tutkimushanketta, josta Ping Zhou'n väitöskirjatyö muodosti keskeisen osan. Kenttätyö Sichuanissa avasi mahdollisuuden hedelmälliseen monitieteiseen yhteistyöhön ja tutkijavaihtoon Kiinan tiedeakatemian alaisen Chengdun biologiainstituutin (CIB) kanssa; tämä tieteellinen kanssakäyminen jatkuu edelleen.

A capability-based view of organisational renewal : Combining opportunity- and advantage-seeking growth in large, established European and North American wood-industry companies

The purpose of this study was to extend understanding of how large firms pursuing sustained and profitable growth manage organisational renewal. A multiple-case study was conducted in 27 North American and European wood-industry companies, of which 11 were chosen for closer study. The study combined the organisational-capabilities approach to strategic management with corporate-entrepreneurship thinking. It charted the further development of an identification and classification system for capabilities comprising three dimensions: (i) the dynamism between firm-specific and industry-significant capabilities, (ii) hierarchies of capabilities and capability portfolios, and (iii) their internal structure. Capability building was analysed in the context of the organisational design, the technological systems and the type of resource-bundling process (creating new vs. entrenching existing capabilities). The thesis describes the current capability portfolios and the organisational changes in the case companies. It also clarifies the mechanisms through which companies can influence the balance between knowledge search and the efficiency of knowledge transfer and integration in their daily business activities, and consequently the diversity of their capability portfolio and the breadth and novelty of their product/service range. The largest wood-industry companies of today must develop a seemingly dual strategic focus: they have to combine leading-edge, innovative solutions with cost-efficient, large-scale production. The use of modern technology in production was no longer a primary source of competitiveness in the case companies, but rather belonged to the portfolio of basic capabilities. Knowledge and information management had become an industry imperative, on a par with cost effectiveness. Yet, during the period of this research, the case companies were better in supporting growth in volume of the existing activity than growth through new economic activities. Customer-driven, incremental innovation was preferred over firm-driven innovation through experimentation. The three main constraints on organisational renewal were the lack of slack resources, the aim for lean, centralised designs, and the inward-bound communication climate.

Eurasian Neogene large herbivorous mammals and climate

The development and changes in the distribution of herbivorous mammal communities during the Neogene is complex. The Eurasian scale environmental patterns reflect the large scale geographical and climatic patterns. The reorganization of these affect the biome distribution throughout the continent. The distribution of mammal taxa was closely associated with the distribution of biomes. In Eurasia the Neogene development of environments was twofold. The early and middle Miocene that seemed to have been advantageous for mammals was followed by drying of environments during the late Neogene. The mid-latitude drying was the main trend, and it is the combined result of the retreat of Paratethys, the uplift of Tibetan Plateau and changes in the ocean currents and temperatures. The common mammals were "driving" the evolution of mammalian communities. During the late Miocene we see the drying affecting more and more regions, and we see changes in the composition of mammalian communities.

Computational Methods for Reconstruction and Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Networks

Metabolism is the cellular subsystem responsible for generation of energy from nutrients and production of building blocks for larger macromolecules. Computational and statistical modeling of metabolism is vital to many disciplines including bioengineering, the study of diseases, drug target identification, and understanding the evolution of metabolism. In this thesis, we propose efficient computational methods for metabolic modeling. The techniques presented are targeted particularly at the analysis of large metabolic models encompassing the whole metabolism of one or several organisms. We concentrate on three major themes of metabolic modeling: metabolic pathway analysis, metabolic reconstruction and the study of evolution of metabolism. In the first part of this thesis, we study metabolic pathway analysis. We propose a novel modeling framework called gapless modeling to study biochemically viable metabolic networks and pathways. In addition, we investigate the utilization of atom-level information on metabolism to improve the quality of pathway analyses. We describe efficient algorithms for discovering both gapless and atom-level metabolic pathways, and conduct experiments with large-scale metabolic networks. The presented gapless approach offers a compromise in terms of complexity and feasibility between the previous graph-theoretic and stoichiometric approaches to metabolic modeling. Gapless pathway analysis shows that microbial metabolic networks are not as robust to random damage as suggested by previous studies. Furthermore the amino acid biosynthesis pathways of the fungal species Trichoderma reesei discovered from atom-level data are shown to closely correspond to those of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the second part, we propose computational methods for metabolic reconstruction in the gapless modeling framework. We study the task of reconstructing a metabolic network that does not suffer from connectivity problems. Such problems often limit the usability of reconstructed models, and typically require a significant amount of manual postprocessing. We formulate gapless metabolic reconstruction as an optimization problem and propose an efficient divide-and-conquer strategy to solve it with real-world instances. We also describe computational techniques for solving problems stemming from ambiguities in metabolite naming. These techniques have been implemented in a web-based sofware ReMatch intended for reconstruction of models for 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the third part, we extend our scope from single to multiple metabolic networks and propose an algorithm for inferring gapless metabolic networks of ancestral species from phylogenetic data. Experimenting with 16 fungal species, we show that the method is able to generate results that are easily interpretable and that provide hypotheses about the evolution of metabolism.