Diatom-based paleolimnological reconstruction of Quaternary environments in a Florida sinkhole lake

Despite lake sensitivity to climate change, few Florida paleolimnological studies have focused on changes in hydrology. Evidence from Florida vegetation histories raise questions about long-term hydrologic history of Florida lakes, and a 25-year limnological dataset revealed recent climate-driven effects on Lake Annie. The objectives of this research are (1) to use modern diatom assemblages to develop methods for reconstruction of climatic and anthropogenic change (2) to reconstruct both long-term and recent histories of Lake Annie using diatom microfossils. Paleoenvironmental reconstruction models were developed from diatom assemblages of various habitat types from modern lakes. Plankton and sediment assemblages were similar, but epiphytes were distinct, suggesting differences in sediment delivery from different parts of the lakes. Relationships between a variety of physical and chemical data and the diatoms from each habitat type were explored. Total phosphorus (TP), pH, and color were found to be the most relevant variables for reconstruction, with sediment and epiphyte assemblages having the strongest relationships to those variables, six calibration models were constructed from the combination of these habitat types and environmental variables. Reconstructions utilizing the weighted averaging models in this study may be used to directly reveal TP, color, and pH changes from a sediment record, which might be suggestive of hydrologic change as well. These variables were reconstructed from the diatom record from both a long-term (11,000 year) and short-term (100 year) record and showed an interaction between climate-driven and local land-use impacts on Lake Annie. The long-term record begins with Lake Annie as a wetland, then the lake filled to a high stand around 4000 years ago. A period of relative stability after that point was interrupted near the turn of the last century by subtle changes in diatom communities that indicate acidification. Abrupt changes in the diatom communities around 1970 AD suggest recovery from acidification, but concurrent hydrologic change intensified anthropogenic effects on the lake. Diatom evidence for alkalization and phosphorus loading correspond to changes seen in the limnological record.

A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Integrated Carbon Budget Models for the Everglades Terrestrial-Coastal-Oceanic Gradient: Current Status and Needs for Inter-Site Comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines.

Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Adolescent Detainees

During the past two decades there has been much research conducted on the relationship between the risky sexual behavior practices and substance use among U.S. adolescents. This body of research has documented the fact that substance use and not using condoms are the most important indicators associated with the risk of becoming infected with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) both among adolescents and adults (Florida Department of Public Health, 2004; Malow, Devieux, Jennings, & Lucenko, 2001; McCoy & Inciardi, 1995). Data from those reports and studies indicate that adolescents and adults who use a condom regularly and appropriately are 20 times less likely to contract an STD than those who do not (Pinkerton & Abramson, 1997). However, less empirical evidence exists about the factors that influence adolescent use of condoms, particularly among adolescents who are detained due to their criminal lifestyle. Researchers have found both a high prevalence of STD in addition to early onset of sexual activity without protection among some adolescent groups such as the detainees (D'angelo & DiClemente, 1996) and that adolescents tend to underestimate their risks of acquiring the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (Magura, Shapiro, & Kang, 1994). Many adolescents will experiment with alcohol and other drugs. This behavior may compromise their judgment and increase their chances of engaging in risky sex (Rotheram-Borus, 2000). Hence the need for research that investigates the influence that substance use, risky sexual attitudes, knowledge about the transmission of HIV, and both peer and parental approval of condom use have on the use of condoms among both female and male adolescent detainees. Lastly, it is important for additional research to be conducted because adolescent detainees have been identified as being at high risk of becoming infected with an STD (Malow, Rosemberg, & Devieux, 2006). The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among adolescent substance use, gender, sexual risk attitude, attitude about personal use of condoms, knowledge associated with the transmission of HIV, peer and family approval of condom use, history of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and the level of condom use in a sample of adolescents housed in a correctional institution. Further details of the explanatory variables, the control variables and their expected relationships can be found in the review of the Literature in Chapter 2. Also, more information about the separate analysis of the research questions is detailed in the Methods section in Chapter 3. Based on the literature detailed in Chapter 2 (e.g., Malow et al., 2006), the current study’s researcher anticipated that adolescents’ higher levels of illicit drug use would be related to higher levels of sexual risk behaviors, as measured by lower levels of condom use, than their counterparts who used no drugs. Similarly, it was hypothesized that positive attitudes toward condom use and higher levels of HIV risk knowledge would be associated with a lower level of risky sexual behaviors along with a higher level of condom use skill. It was further hypothesized that the level of approval perceived from parents and peers regarding condom use was going to be related to adolescents’ safe sex behavior (i.e., condom use). Therefore, it was expected that participants’ perception of a high level of approval to use condoms from peers and parents would be a statistically significant variable in helping explain the condom use within this sample of adolescent detainees.

Half-degree gridded nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for global agriculture production during 1900-2013

In addition to enhance agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically altered global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedbacks to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system/land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use over-simplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long period. We therefore develop a global time-series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in croplands, matched with HYDE 3,2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5º latitude by longitude during 1900-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961, when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) survey of country-level fertilizer input were available. Considering cropland expansion, increase of total fertilizer consumption amount is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer use shifted from the U.S. and Western Europe in the 1960s to East Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input show the similar pattern with additional hotspot in Brazil. We find a global increase of fertilizer N/P ratio by 0.8 g N/g P per decade (p< 0.05) during 1961-2013, which may have important global implication of human impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global assessment on agricultural productivity, crop yield, agriculture-derived greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, land-to-aquatic nutrient loss, and ecosystem feedback to the climate system.

ELUM: a spatial modelling tool to predict soil greenhouse gas changes from land conversion to bioenergy in the UK

Acknowledgements This work is based on the Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial (ELUM) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). The authors are grateful to Niall McNamara (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster) for coordinating the project and to Dagmar Henner (University of Aberdeen) for project assistance. We are also grateful to staff at the ETI, particularly to Geraldine Newton-Cross, Geraint Evans and Hannah Evans for constructive advice and feedback, and to Jonathan Oxley for project support. The ELUM Software Package contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012.

Theory and Practice in Sustainability Science: Influence of Urban Form on the Urban Heat Island and Implications for Urban Systems

As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.

In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.

Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.

In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.

Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.

Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.

Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.

Field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses to assess lava flow hazards at Mount Etna

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

Pollen from 50 lake surface samples in Brandenburg, Germany, in 2009

Past changes in plant and landscape diversity can be evaluated through pollen analysis, however, pollen based diversity indexes are potentially biased by differential pollen production and deposition. Studies examining the relationship between pollen and landscape diversity are therefore needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate how different pollen based indexes capture aspects of landscape diversity. Pollen counts were obtained from surface samples of 50 small to medium sized lakes in Brandenburg (Northeast Germany) and compiled into two sets, with one containing all pollen counts from terrestrial plants and the second restricted to wind-pollinated taxa. Both sets were adjusted for the pollen production/dispersal bias using the REVEALS model. A high resolution biotope map was used to extract the density of total biotopes and different biotopes per area as parameters describing landscape diversity. In addition tree species diversity was obtained from forest inventory data. The Shannon index and the number of taxa in a sample of 10 pollen grains are highly correlated and provide a useful measure of pollen type diversity which corresponds best to landscape diversity within one km of the lake and the proportion of non-forested area within seven km. Adjustments of the pollen production/dispersal bias only slightly improve the relationships between pollen diversity and landscape diversity for the restricted dataset as well as for the forest inventory data and corresponding pollen types. Using rarefaction analysis, we propose the following convention: pollen type diversity is represented by the number of types in a small sample (low count e.g. 10), pollen type richness is the number of types in a large sample (high count e.g. 500) and pollen sample evenness is characterized by the ratio of the two. Synthesis. Pollen type diversity is a robust index that captures vegetation structure and landscape diversity. It is ideally suited for between site comparisons as it does not require high pollen counts. In concert with pollen type richness and evenness, it helps evaluating the effect of climate change and human land use on vegetation structure on long timescales.

The relationship between vegetation and modern pollen assemblages on Mount Paggeo (NE Greece)

In this study, we investigated the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain along the elevational gradient of Mount Paggeo. We apply multivariate data analysis to assess the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain and quantify the representativeness of forest zones. This study represents the first statistical analysis of pollen-vegetation relationship along an elevational gradient in Greece. Hence, this paper improves confidence in interpretation of palynological records from north-eastern Greece and may refine past climate reconstructions for a more accurate comparison of data and modelling. Numerical classification and ordination were performed on pollen data to assess differences among plant communities that beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates or co-dominates. The results show a strong relationship between altitude, arboreal cover, human impact and variations in pollen and nonpollen palynomorph taxa percentages.

British economic growth 1270-1870

This is a definitive new account of Britain's economic evolution from a backwater of Europe in 1270 to the hub of the global economy in 1870. For the first time Britain's national accounts are reconstructed right back into the thirteenth century to show what really happened quantitatively during the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution. Contrary to traditional views of the earlier period as one of Malthusian stagnation, they reveal how the transition to modern economic growth built on the earlier foundations of a persistent upward trend in GDP per capita which doubled between 1270 and 1700. Featuring comprehensive estimates of population, land use, agricultural production, industrial and service-sector production and GDP per capita, as well as analysis of their implications, this is an essential reference work for those interest in British economic history and the origins of modern economic growth more generally.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.