Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

On loop corrections to the dilepton rate

Next-to-leading order analyses of the dilepton production rate from a hot QCD plasma are reviewed. In general, the photon invariant mass is taken to be in the range K2∼(πT)2, permitting thereby for an interpolation between an OPE computation in a hard regime K2≫(πT)2 and an LPM resummed computation in a soft regime 0

hp-DGFEM for second-order mixed elliptic problems polyhedra

We prove exponential rates of convergence of hp-version discontinuous Galerkin (dG) interior penalty finite element methods for second-order elliptic problems with mixed Dirichlet-Neumann boundary conditions in axiparallel polyhedra. The dG discretizations are based on axiparallel, σ-geometric anisotropic meshes of mapped hexahedra and anisotropic polynomial degree distributions of μ-bounded variation. We consider piecewise analytic solutions which belong to a larger analytic class than those for the pure Dirichlet problem considered in [11, 12]. For such solutions, we establish the exponential convergence of a nonconforming dG interpolant given by local L 2 -projections on elements away from corners and edges, and by suitable local low-order quasi-interpolants on elements at corners and edges. Due to the appearance of non-homogeneous, weighted norms in the analytic regularity class, new arguments are introduced to bound the dG consistency errors in elements abutting on Neumann edges. The non-homogeneous norms also entail some crucial modifications of the stability and quasi-optimality proofs, as well as of the analysis for the anisotropic interpolation operators. The exponential convergence bounds for the dG interpolant constructed in this paper generalize the results of [11, 12] for the pure Dirichlet case.

Hazardous air pollutants and childhood lymphohematopoietic cancer in Southeast Texas, 1995--2004

Southeast Texas, including Houston, has a large presence of industrial facilities and has been documented to have poorer air quality and significantly higher cancer rates than the remainder of Texas. Given citizens’ concerns in this 4th largest city in the U.S., Mayor Bill White recently partnered with the UT School of Public Health to determine methods to evaluate the health risks of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Sexton et al. (2007) published a report that strongly encouraged analytic studies linking these pollutants with health outcomes. In response, we set out to complete the following aims: 1. determine the optimal exposure assessment strategy to assess the association between childhood cancer rates and increased ambient levels of benzene and 1,3-butadiene (in an ecologic setting) and 2. evaluate whether census tracts with the highest levels of benzene or 1,3-butadiene have higher incidence of childhood lymphohematopoietic cancer compared with census tracts with the lowest levels of benzene or 1,3-butadiene, using Poisson regression. The first aim was achieved by evaluating the usefulness of four data sources: geographic information systems (GIS) to identify proximity to point sources of industrial air pollution, industrial emission data from the U.S. EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), routine monitoring data from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) from 1999-2000 and modeled ambient air levels from the U.S. EPA’s 1999 National Air Toxic Assessment Project (NATA) ASPEN model. Further, once these four data sources were evaluated, we narrowed them down to two: the routine monitoring data from the AQS for the years 1998-2000 and the 1999 U.S. EPA NATA ASPEN modeled data. We applied kriging (spatial interpolation) methodology to the monitoring data and compared the kriged values to the ASPEN modeled data. Our results indicated poor agreement between the two methods. Relative to the U.S. EPA ASPEN modeled estimates, relying on kriging to classify census tracts into exposure groups would have caused a great deal of misclassification. To address the second aim, we additionally obtained childhood lymphohematopoietic cancer data for 1995-2004 from the Texas Cancer Registry. The U.S. EPA ASPEN modeled data were used to estimate ambient levels of benzene and 1,3-butadiene in separate Poisson regression analyses. All data were analyzed at the census tract level. We found that census tracts with the highest benzene levels had elevated rates of all leukemia (rate ratio (RR) = 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.78). Among census tracts with the highest 1,3-butadiene levels, we observed RRs of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.07-1.81) for all leukemia. We detected no associations between benzene or 1,3-butadiene levels and childhood lymphoma incidence. This study is the first to examine this association in Harris and surrounding counties in Texas and is among the first to correlate monitored levels of HAPs with childhood lymphohematopoietic cancer incidence, evaluating several analytic methods in an effort to determine the most appropriate approach to test this association. Despite recognized weakness of ecologic analyses, our analysis suggests an association between childhood leukemia and hazardous air pollution.^

Chronology for the EDML ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, over the last 150 000 years

A chronology called EDML1 has been developed for the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). EDML1 is closely interlinked with EDC3, the new chronology for the EPICA ice core from Dome-C (EDC) through a stratigraphic match between EDML and EDC that consists of 322 volcanic match points over the last 128 ka. The EDC3 chronology comprises a glaciological model at EDC, which is constrained and later selectively tuned using primary dating information from EDC as well as from EDML, the latter being transferred using the tight stratigraphic link between the two cores. Finally, EDML1 was built by exporting EDC3 to EDML. For ages younger than 41 ka BP the new synchronized time scale EDML1/EDC3 is based on dated volcanic events and on a match to the Greenlandic ice core chronology GICC05 via 10Be and methane. The internal consistency between EDML1 and EDC3 is estimated to be typically ~6 years and always less than 450 years over the last 128 ka (always less than 130 years over the last 60 ka), which reflects an unprecedented synchrony of time scales. EDML1 ends at 150 ka BP (2417 m depth) because the match between EDML and EDC becomes ambiguous further down. This hints at a complex ice flow history for the deepest 350 m of the EDML ice core.

Actualización del relevamiento de suelos irrigados por el río Mendoza (Argentina)

Este trabajo actualiza un relevamiento de suelos del área regada por el río Mendoza (Argentina) cuyo muestreo edáfico -el de mayor intensidad en la zona- y sus análisis se efectuaron en 1974. Con un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) se obtuvo un mapa digital operativo que fijó los límites -o unidades cartográficas- de los suelos, conociendo la precisión de las cartografías realizadas. La información básica sobre el recurso suelo servirá de base para posteriores investigaciones; por ej. su eventual degradación por el recurso hídrico utilizado. Método para establecer las unidades cartográficas del suelo: a) Recuperación digital de 2 475 datos puntuales tabulados. La tabla suministró el identificador de los mismos (id.) y la textura y salinidad de dos capas: 0-25 y 50-80 cm. b) Transferencia cartográfica de los atributos edáficos de la tabla para vincular la cartografía con la base asociada de datos. c) Definición de las unidades cartográficas y la extensión de cada atributo mediante el método de interpolación de los polígonos de Thiessen. d) Limitación de la extensión de la interpolación a una distancia máxima de 178 m, 10 ha. e) Diseño de mapas temáticos definitivos con tabulaciones cruzadas. Dichos mapas, a escala de semi-detalle, fueron previstos para planificaciones y recomendaciones de uso a nivel regional, no parcelario.

Modelización y generación de mapas del comportamiento espacial de Sporisorium reilianum ((Kühn) Langdon y Fullerton) en Estado de México, México

El presente estudio se realizó con la finalidad de modelizar la distribución espacial del carbón de la espiga del maíz causada por Sporisorium reilianum durante 2006 en el Estado de México y su visualización a través de la generación mapas de densidad. El muestreo se realizó en 100 parcelas georreferenciadas por cada localidad analizada. La incidencia de la enfermedad (porcentaje de plantas enfermas) se determinó al establecer cinco puntos parcela, en cada punto se contabilizaron 100 plantas. Se realizó el análisis geoestadístico para estimar el semivariograma experimental, una vez obtenido, se ajustó a un modelo teórico (esférico, exponencial o gaussiano) a través de los programas Variowin 2.2., su ajuste se validó a través de la validación cruzada. Posteriormente, se elaboraron mapas de agregación de la enfermedad con el método de interpolación geoestadística o krigeado. Los resultados indicaron que la enfermedad se presentó en 20 localidades de 19 municipios del Estado de México; todas las localidades presentaron un comportamiento espacial agregado de la enfermedad, 16 localidades se ajustaron al modelo esférico, dos al modelo exponencial y dos localidades se ajustaron al modelo gaussiano. En todos los modelos se lograron establecer mapas de agregación que permitirá adecuar las acciones de manejo en términos de puntos o sitios específicos.

Accumulation rates for western Dronning Maud Land from firn cores and snow pits

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallow drilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

High resolution bathymetric compilation for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica, with links to data in ArcGIS format

The bathymetry raster with a resolution of 5 m x 5 m was processed from unpublished single beam data from the Argentine Antarctica Institute (IAA, 2010) and multibeam data from the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office (UKHO, 2012) with a cell size of 5 m x 5 m. A coastline digitized from a satellite image (DigitalGlobe, 2014) supplemented the interpolation process. The 'Topo to Raster' tool in ArcMap 10.3 was used to merge the three data sets, while the coastline represented the 0-m-contour to the interpolation process ('contour type option').

Contusotruncana contusa abundances and morphotypes in the cretaceous mid-latitude South Atlantic

Spatial and temporal patterns in test size and shape (test conicity and spiral roundness) and absolute abundance (accumulation rate) of the planktonic foraminifer Contusotruncana contusa were studied in the South Atlantic Ocean (DSDP sites 356, 516, 525 and 527) during an interval corresponding to the last 800 kyr of the Cretaceous. The variation in absolute abundance of C. contusa was characterised by alternating periods of high and low abundance; some of these periods were traceable across the entire mid-latitude South Atlantic Ocean. While the mean spiral roundness did not show any interpretable patterns, a sudden increase of the mean test size and mean test conicity occurred between 65.3 and 65.2 Ma (based on linear interpolation within the Cretaceous part of Subchron C29R) at all sites studied, indicating a poleward migration followed by rapid withdrawal of the low-latitude C. contusa morphotypes from the mid-latitude South Atlantic Ocean. We suggest that this event was caused by a short period of surface-water warming in the southern mid-latitudes corresponding to the brief high-latitude warming event and associated faunal migrations in the Boreal and Austral realms.

Nota complementaria a "La escritura proverbial de Santillana"

Este trabajo se propone complementar el artículo de Miguel Ángel Pérez Priego, "La escritura proverbial de Santillana" (1992), en el que aborda la cuestión desde la variación estilística que significaron los Proverbios o Centiloquio en la producción poética del Marqués de Santillana. Al inscribir el poema en la categoría genérica del proverbio, Pérez Priego reconoce las características propias de la escritura proverbial en el texto de Santillana, al mismo tiempo que destaca el uso estilístico diferenciado de proverbios y refranes según los tipos de poemas que los contienen. A partir del estudio de la interpolación de paremias en sus poesías doctrinales más extensas, en composiciones líricas representativas y en textos prosísticos, podemos aportar otro aspecto distintivo del discurso proverbial del poeta: la confluencia de la tradición paremiológica medieval y de nuevos paradigmas humanistas. Esto es resultado de la vasta erudición y conocimiento de la Antigüedad clásica, así como del continuo interés por la cultura popular, que caracterizan la obra y formación del Marqués de Santillana

Nota complementaria a "La escritura proverbial de Santillana"

Este trabajo se propone complementar el artículo de Miguel Ángel Pérez Priego, "La escritura proverbial de Santillana" (1992), en el que aborda la cuestión desde la variación estilística que significaron los Proverbios o Centiloquio en la producción poética del Marqués de Santillana. Al inscribir el poema en la categoría genérica del proverbio, Pérez Priego reconoce las características propias de la escritura proverbial en el texto de Santillana, al mismo tiempo que destaca el uso estilístico diferenciado de proverbios y refranes según los tipos de poemas que los contienen. A partir del estudio de la interpolación de paremias en sus poesías doctrinales más extensas, en composiciones líricas representativas y en textos prosísticos, podemos aportar otro aspecto distintivo del discurso proverbial del poeta: la confluencia de la tradición paremiológica medieval y de nuevos paradigmas humanistas. Esto es resultado de la vasta erudición y conocimiento de la Antigüedad clásica, así como del continuo interés por la cultura popular, que caracterizan la obra y formación del Marqués de Santillana

Geochemistry of DSDP Hole 91-596

Geochemical analyses of sediments from the top 24.5 m of Deep Sea Drilling Project hole 596 (23°51.20'S, 169°39.27'W) show great variability in the composition of pelagic clays accumulated in the South Pacific since the late Cretaceous. Elemental associations indicate that most of this variability can be attributed to variations in abundances of six sediment end-member components: detrital (eolian), andesitic (volcanic), hydrothermal, hydrogenous, phosphate (fish debris), and biogenic silica. We develop a sedimentation model which is used to infer processes that might have influenced the accumulation rates of these components over the last 85 million years. The accumulation of eolian detritus in the South Pacific shows some similarities to that observed in the North Pacific and has been largely controlled by global climate trends in the Cenozoic. Much of the variation in the accumulation of other sediment components likely reflects the paleoceanographic evolution of the South Pacific. The most notable change in the sedimentary environment occurred at about the Paleogene/Neogene boundary. At that time, significant changes in the color, mineralogy, and chemistry of the sediment probably reflect major shifts in climate mode as well as oceanic circulation in the central South Pacific region.