Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

Adaptation en français et en allemand d'une échelle de pression des pairs pour jeunes adultes : le Peer Pressure Inventory [Adaptation of a peer pressure scale in French and German: the Peer Pressure Inventory].

BACKGROUND: Peer pressure is regarded as an important determinant of substance use, sexual behavior and juvenile delinquency. However, few peer pressure scales are validated, especially in French or German. Little is known about the factor structure of such scales or the kind of scale needed: some scales takes into account both peer pressure to do and peer pressure not to do, while others consider only peer pressure to do. The aim of the present study was to adapt French and German versions of the Peer Pressure Inventory, which is one of the most widely used scales in this field. We considered its factor structure and concurrent validity. METHODS: Five thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven young Swiss men filled in a questionnaire on peer pressure, substance use, and other variables (conformity, involvement) in a cohort study. RESULTS: We identified a four-factor structure, with the three factors of the initial Peer Pressure Inventory (involvement, conformity, misconduct) and adding a new one (relationship with girls). A non-valued scale (from no peer pressure to peer pressure to do only) showed stronger psychometric qualities than a valued scale (from peer pressure not to do to peer pressure to do). Concurrent validity was also good. Each behavior or attitude was significantly associated with peer pressure. CONCLUSION: Peer pressure seems to be a multidimensional concept. In this study, peer pressure to do showed the strongest influence on participants. Indeed, peer pressure not to do did not add anything useful. Only peer pressure to do affected young Swiss men's behaviors and attitudes and was reliable.

Dépistage du cancer pulmonaire par scanner thoracique [Computed tomography screening for lung cancer].

Lung cancer screening has been the focus of intense interest since the publication in 2011 of the NLST trial (National Lung Screening Trial) showing a mortality reduction in smokers undergoing 3-year screening by chest computed tomography. Although these data appear promising, many issues remain to be resolved, such as high rate of false positive cases, risk of overdiagnosis, optimal intervals between screens, duration of the screening process, feasibility, and cost. Structured screening programs appear crucial to guarantee patient information, technical quality, and multidisciplinary management. Despite these uncertainties, several guidelines already state that screening should be performed in patients at risk, whereas investigators stress that more data are needed. How should the primary care physician deal with individual patients requests? This review provides some clues on this complex issue.

Euromelanoma: a dermatology-led European campaign against nonmelanoma skin cancer and cutaneous melanoma: past, present and future.

Euromelanoma is a dermatologist-led skin cancer prevention programme conducting an annual screening and public education campaign in over 20 European countries. Within its 10-year history, Euromelanoma has screened over 260,000 individuals across Europe, detecting a significant number of cutaneous melanomas and nonmelanoma skin cancers, identifying high-risk individuals for further surveillance and promoting awareness on the suspicious features of melanoma and the hazardous effects of ultraviolet exposure. In this review article, we summarize the history of the Euromelanoma campaign, present its organizational structure and discuss the results of the campaign in individual countries and on a European scale. Euromelanoma has had a significant impact on melanoma prevention and early diagnosis in participating countries and, despite many challenges, has positively influenced public health attitudes towards regular mole examination and the implementation of preventive measures against skin cancer.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale along the National Road N7, Argentina

A first assessment of debris flow susceptibility at a large scale was performed along the National Road N7, Argentina. Numerous catchments are prone to debris flows and likely to endanger the road-users. A 1:50,000 susceptibility map was created. The use of a DEM (grid 30 m) associated to three complementary criteria (slope, contributing area, curvature) allowed the identification of potential source areas. The debris flow spreading was estimated using a process- and GISbased model (Flow-R) based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations. The best-fit values for the coefficient of friction and the mass-to-drag ratio of the PCM model were found to be ? = 0.02 and M/D = 180 and the resulting propagation on one of the calibration site was validated using the Coulomb friction model. The results are realistic and will be useful to determine which areas need to be prioritized for detailed studies.

Fine-scale genetic structure and marginal processes in an expanding population of Biscutella laevigata L. (Brassicaceae).

Evolutionary processes acting at the expanding margins of a species' range are still poorly understood. Genetic drift is considered prevalent in marginal populations, and the maintenance of genetic diversity during recolonization might seem puzzling. To investigate such processes, a fine-scale investigation of 219 individuals was performed within a population of Biscutella laevigata (Brassicaceae), located at the leading edge of its range. The survey used amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). As commonly reported across the whole species distribution range, individual density and genetic diversity decreased along the local axis of recolonization of this expanding population, highlighting the enduring effect of the historical colonization on present-day diversity. The self-incompatibility system of the plant may have prevented local inbreeding in newly found patches and sustained genetic diversity by ensuring gene flow from established populations. Within the more continuously populated region, spatial analysis of genetic structure revealed restricted gene flow among individuals. The distribution of genotypes formed a mosaic of relatively homogenous patches within the continuous population. This pattern could be explained by a history of expansion by long-distance dispersal followed by fine-scale diffusion (that is, a stratified dispersal combination). The secondary contact among expanding patches apparently led to admixture among differentiated genotypes where they met (that is, a reshuffling effect). This type of dynamics could explain the maintenance of genetic diversity during recolonization.

Identification of potential rockfall source areas at a regional scale using a DEM-based geomorphometric analysis

The availability of high resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) at a regional scale enables the analysis of topography with high levels of detail. Hence, a DEM-based geomorphometric approach becomes more accurate for detecting potential rockfall sources. Potential rockfall source areas are identified according to the slope angle distribution deduced from high resolution DEM crossed with other information extracted from geological and topographic maps in GIS format. The slope angle distribution can be decomposed in several Gaussian distributions that can be considered as characteristic of morphological units: rock cliffs, steep slopes, footslopes and plains. A terrain is considered as potential rockfall sources when their slope angles lie over an angle threshold, which is defined where the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Rock cliffs" become dominant over the one of "Steep slopes". In addition to this analysis, the cliff outcrops indicated by the topographic maps were added. They contain however "flat areas", so that only the slope angles values above the mode of the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Steep slopes" were considered. An application of this method is presented over the entire Canton of Vaud (3200 km2), Switzerland. The results were compared with rockfall sources observed on the field and orthophotos analysis in order to validate the method. Finally, the influence of the cell size of the DEM is inspected by applying the methodology over six different DEM resolutions.

Genetic and phenotypic population divergence on a microgeographic scale in brown trout.

Salmonid populations of many rivers are rapidly declining. One possible explanation is that habitat fragmentation increases genetic drift and reduces the populations' potential to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We measured the genetic and eco-morphological diversity of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a Swiss stream system, using multivariate statistics and Bayesian clustering. We found large genetic and phenotypic variation within only 40 km of stream length. Eighty-eight percent of all pairwise F(ST) comparisons and 50% of the population comparisons in body shape were significant. High success rates of population assignment tests confirmed the distinctiveness of populations in both genotype and phenotype. Spatial analysis revealed that divergence increased with waterway distance, the number of weirs, and stretches of poor habitat between sampling locations, but effects of isolation-by-distance and habitat fragmentation could not be fully disentangled. Stocking intensity varied between streams but did not appear to erode genetic diversity within populations. A lack of association between phenotypic and genetic divergence points to a role of local adaptation or phenotypically plastic responses to habitat heterogeneity. Indeed, body shape could be largely explained by topographic stream slope, and variation in overall phenotype matched the flow regimes of the respective habitats.

Dépistage et prévention chez les aînés: quelles interventions proposer, à qui, et jusqu'à quel âge [Screening and prevention in the elderly: which interventions should be proposed, to whom, and up to what age?].

Recommendations on preventive services rarely mention how to apply them to older people. Even though general criteria (prevalence of disease, quality of screening tests) that influence screening's efficacy remain important, appropriateness of screening in older persons depends much more on individual criteria, such as comorbidity, functional status, and life expectancy. More than with any other age group, patients preferences regarding future investigation and treatment guide the clinical decision. This article focuses on primary and secondary prevention, and discusses specific criteria to consider in each patient. A table summarizes the appropriate recommendations.

Highly parallel genetic approaches in Mendelian and complex diseases

The recent advance in high-throughput sequencing and genotyping protocols allows rapid investigation of Mendelian and complex diseases on a scale not previously been possible. In my thesis research I took advantage of these modern techniques to study retinitis pigmentosa (RP), a rare inherited disease characterized by progressive loss of photoreceptors and leading to blindness; and hypertension, a common condition affecting 30% of the adult population. Firstly, I compared the performance of different next generation sequencing (NGS) platforms in the sequencing of the RP-linked gene PRPF31. The gene contained a mutation in an intronic repetitive element, which presented difficulties for both classic sequencing methods and NGS. We showed that all NGS platforms are powerful tools to identify rare and common DNA variants, also in case of more complex sequences. Moreover, we evaluated the features of different NGS platforms that are important in re-sequencing projects. The main focus of my thesis was then to investigate the involvement of pre-mRNA splicing factors in autosomal dominant RP (adRP). I screened 5 candidate genes in a large cohort of patients by using long-range PCR as enrichment step, followed by NGS. We tested two different approaches: in one, all target PCRs from all patients were pooled and sequenced as a single DNA library; in the other, PCRs from each patient were separated within the pool by DNA barcodes. The first solution was more cost-effective, while the second one allowed obtaining faster and more accurate results, but overall they both proved to be effective strategies for gene screenings in many samples. We could in fact identify novel missense mutations in the SNRNP200 gene, encoding an essential RNA helicase for splicing catalysis. Interestingly, one of these mutations showed incomplete penetrance in one family with adRP. Thus, we started to study the possible molecular causes underlying phenotypic differences between asymptomatic and affected members of this family. For the study of hypertension, I joined a European consortium to perform genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Thanks to the use of very informative genotyping arrays and of phenotipically well-characterized cohorts, we could identify a novel susceptibility locus for hypertension in the promoter region of the endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene (NOS3). Moreover, we have proven the direct causality of the associated SNP using three different methods: 1) targeted resequencing, 2) luciferase assay, and 3) population study. - Le récent progrès dans le Séquençage à haut Débit et les protocoles de génotypage a permis une plus vaste et rapide étude des maladies mendéliennes et multifactorielles à une échelle encore jamais atteinte. Durant ma thèse de recherche, j'ai utilisé ces nouvelles techniques de séquençage afin d'étudier la retinite pigmentale (RP), une maladie héréditaire rare caractérisée par une perte progressive des photorécepteurs de l'oeil qui entraine la cécité; et l'hypertension, une maladie commune touchant 30% de la population adulte. Tout d'abord, j'ai effectué une comparaison des performances de différentes plateformes de séquençage NGS (Next Generation Sequencing) lors du séquençage de PRPF31, un gène lié à RP. Ce gène contenait une mutation dans un élément répétable intronique, qui présentait des difficultés de séquençage avec la méthode classique et les NGS. Nous avons montré que les plateformes de NGS analysées sont des outils très puissants pour identifier des variations de l'ADN rares ou communes et aussi dans le cas de séquences complexes. De plus, nous avons exploré les caractéristiques des différentes plateformes NGS qui sont importantes dans les projets de re-séquençage. L'objectif principal de ma thèse a été ensuite d'examiner l'effet des facteurs d'épissage de pre-ARNm dans une forme autosomale dominante de RP (adRP). Un screening de 5 gènes candidats issus d'une large cohorte de patients a été effectué en utilisant la long-range PCR comme étape d'enrichissement, suivie par séquençage avec NGS. Nous avons testé deux approches différentes : dans la première, toutes les cibles PCRs de tous les patients ont été regroupées et séquencées comme une bibliothèque d'ADN unique; dans la seconde, les PCRs de chaque patient ont été séparées par code barres d'ADN. La première solution a été la plus économique, tandis que la seconde a permis d'obtenir des résultats plus rapides et précis. Dans l'ensemble, ces deux stratégies se sont démontrées efficaces pour le screening de gènes issus de divers échantillons. Nous avons pu identifier des nouvelles mutations faux-sens dans le gène SNRNP200, une hélicase ayant une fonction essentielle dans l'épissage. Il est intéressant de noter qu'une des ces mutations montre une pénétrance incomplète dans une famille atteinte d'adRP. Ainsi, nous avons commencé une étude sur les causes moléculaires entrainant des différences phénotypiques entre membres affectés et asymptomatiques de cette famille. Lors de l'étude de l'hypertension, j'ai rejoint un consortium européen pour réaliser une étude d'association Pangénomique ou genome-wide association study Grâce à l'utilisation de tableaux de génotypage très informatifs et de cohortes extrêmement bien caractérisées au niveau phénotypique, un nouveau locus lié à l'hypertension a été identifié dans la région promotrice du gène endothélial nitric oxide sinthase (NOS3). Par ailleurs, nous avons prouvé la cause directe du SNP associé au moyen de trois méthodes différentes: i) en reséquençant la cible avec NGS, ii) avec des essais à la luciférase et iii) une étude de population.

Select-divide-and-conquer method for large-scale configuration interaction

A select-divide-and-conquer variational method to approximate configuration interaction (CI) is presented. Given an orthonormal set made up of occupied orbitals (Hartree-Fock or similar) and suitable correlation orbitals (natural or localized orbitals), a large N-electron target space S is split into subspaces S0,S1,S2,...,SR. S0, of dimension d0, contains all configurations K with attributes (energy contributions, etc.) above thresholds T0={T0egy, T0etc.}; the CI coefficients in S0 remain always free to vary. S1 accommodates KS with attributes above T1≤T0. An eigenproblem of dimension d0+d1 for S0+S 1 is solved first, after which the last d1 rows and columns are contracted into a single row and column, thus freezing the last d1 CI coefficients hereinafter. The process is repeated with successive Sj(j≥2) chosen so that corresponding CI matrices fit random access memory (RAM). Davidson's eigensolver is used R times. The final energy eigenvalue (lowest or excited one) is always above the corresponding exact eigenvalue in S. Threshold values {Tj;j=0, 1, 2,...,R} regulate accuracy; for large-dimensional S, high accuracy requires S 0+S1 to be solved outside RAM. From there on, however, usually a few Davidson iterations in RAM are needed for each step, so that Hamiltonian matrix-element evaluation becomes rate determining. One μhartree accuracy is achieved for an eigenproblem of order 24 × 106, involving 1.2 × 1012 nonzero matrix elements, and 8.4×109 Slater determinants

Multifocalité du carcinome épidermoïde sur les voies digestive supérieure et respiratoire distale : technicité du diagnostic endoscopique [Multiple squamous cell carcinoma of the upper digestive and lower respiratory tracts : methodology of endoscopic screening]

L'étude porte sur 951 porteurs d'un cancer primaire bucco-pharyngo-laryngé, et révèle un taux de multifocalité du carcinome épidermoïde sur les voies digestive supérieure (bouche-pharynx-oesophage) et aérienne distale (larynx-trachée-bronches) s'élevant à 14,5 %. Les secondes localisations peuvent être simultanées (6,4 %) ou successives (8,1 %) à la découverte du premier cancer: dès la deuxième année du follow-up leur incidence dépasse celle des récidives. Elles se localisent tant au niveau ORL (8,5 %) qu'oesophagien (3 %) ou bronchique (3 %). Le cancer du voile présente un taux de multifocalité particulièrement élevé (51 %). Les auteurs décrivent un type d'endoscopie de dépistage (bucco-pharyngo-oesophago-laryngo-trachéobronchoscopie) dont la fiabilité repose sur une technicité spécifique d'une part, et sur la connaissance des caractéristiques propres aux secondes localisations d'autre part. Ce dépistage systématique permet de détecter les tumeurs secondaires à un stade le plus souvent précoce et encore asymptomatique.

Assessing dystrophies and other muscle diseases at the nanometer scale by atomic force microscopy.

AIM: Atomic force microscopy nanoindentation of myofibers was used to assess and quantitatively diagnose muscular dystrophies from human patients. MATERIALS & METHODS: Myofibers were probed from fresh or frozen muscle biopsies from human dystrophic patients and healthy volunteers, as well as mice models, and Young's modulus stiffness values were determined. RESULTS: Fibers displaying abnormally low mechanical stability were detected in biopsies from patients affected by 11 distinct muscle diseases, and Young's modulus values were commensurate to the severity of the disease. Abnormal myofiber resistance was also observed from consulting patients whose muscle condition could not be detected or unambiguously diagnosed otherwise. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: This study provides a proof-of-concept that atomic force microscopy yields a quantitative read-out of human muscle function from clinical biopsies, and that it may thereby complement current muscular dystrophy diagnosis.

Dépistage du syndrome des apnées du sommeil [Screening for sleep apnea syndrome]

Sleep apnea syndrome (SAS) consists of nocturnal snoring interrupted by obstructive apnea and of diurnal symptoms like hypersomnolence as a consequence of sleep fragmentation. Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with this syndrome justify early detection and appropriate treatment. Polysomnography is still a frequently used method for early detection; however, several disadvantages like duration, discomfort and expense led to a search for alternatives. Since the beginning of the eighties, oximetry allows recording of nocturnal oxygen saturation of hemoglobin even at home. Nocturnal oximetry reveals O2-desaturation associated with apnea and thus permits often to diagnose or exclude SAS. Diagnosis of SAS is made when at least 20 desaturations per hour with an amplitude of at least 4% are recorded. On the other hand, normal nocturnal oximetry nearly excludes SAS. In those cases where nocturnal oximetry is not diagnostic, polysomnography remains the method of choice. Departing from published work, a model for SAS detection, based mainly on nocturnal oximetry, is proposed.